SpaceX and other space news updates

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NASAg03
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AtticusMatlock said:

If this is the same mission and I'm remembering correctly, NASA Ames had a rover built (VIPER) and basically ready to go for this mission. Astrobotic was late developing their part of the mission. This caused the NASA rover to go over budget. The completed rover was ordered to be scrapped due to strict interpretation of the NASA budgeting rules. The Griffin was going to fly with a dummy payload instead. That's the government for you.

Perhaps it was somehow saved but as of last summer it was ready for the scrap heap.
Astrobotic has both the Peregrine and Griffin landers. The Peregrine is smaller and failed early on it's initial mission, as in failed to survive launch loads.

As such, NASA didn't want to spend more money completing and operating VIPER on an even larger and more complicated lander from the same company.

But as usual with NASA, VIPER was over budget and NASA didn't want to divert other funds from it. They WERE going to scrap it but got a lot of pushback.

Now, they are on Phase II of soliciting companies to take VIPER to the moon and operate it at no cost to NASA.

This would essentially be a losing proposition for any company that takes it, but would boost their profile or give them a payload to use to prove out new technology.

https://spacenews.com/nasa-requests-industry-proposals-for-viper-lunar-rover-partnership/


Quote:

NASA is following a two-step approach to this competition. The agency is requesting "Step 1" proposals where companies would outline their approach to flying VIPER and achieving its science goals. While a NASA statement said the proposals were due Feb. 20, the procurement documents themselves state the deadline is March 3.

The agency will review those proposals and, within a week, inform which companies that will be invited to submit a more detailed Step 2 proposal, offering additional information on their technical approach for VIPER as well as schedule, management and funding plans. The Step 2 proposals will be due May 2, with NASA planning to select a company within 30 days. NASA will then enter into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement, or CRADA, with that company to fly VIPER.

NASA does not intend to provide any funding to the selected company. "NASA will provision the VIPER rover hardware to the partner as-is," the announcement states. "Partner will be responsible for integrated testing with their lander and analysis, integration, launch, lunar transit, landing, rover roll-off/offload/disembarkment, and surface operations and dissemination of VIPER-generated science data in accordance with the terms of the resulting CRADA agreement."
bthotugigem05
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Kenneth_2003 said:

That's the flight that sent Elon's Tesla Roadster into solar orbit, yes?
Yep, still one of the coolest space moments for me. I got into space later in life and a lot of it was because of that moment when Life on Mars started playing and the Roadster was unveiled.
will25u
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We all thought climate change was the existential threat of the Earth...

Then the asteroids got involved...

txags92
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bthotugigem05 said:

Kenneth_2003 said:

That's the flight that sent Elon's Tesla Roadster into solar orbit, yes?
Yep, still one of the coolest space moments for me. I got into space later in life and a lot of it was because of that moment when Life on Mars started playing and the Roadster was unveiled.
I am not at all ashamed to say that I cried like a baby watching that launch and the simultaneous return of the two boosters. My father worked for NASA in the 60s and 70s training the Appollo program astronauts in Field Geology. He spent his entire life fascinated with science fiction and exploring other worlds. He unfortunately passed away in 2003 and was not alive to see what Spacex is doing today. I finally understood on that day just a small part of what he must have felt like as a young man watching the Saturn V liftoff for the moon with men on board that he had trained to explore the moon. The landing of the two boosters was a scene straight out of a science fiction novel and I won't ever forget how it made me feel to watch it.
NASAg03
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It's go time!!!!

NASAg03
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will25u said:

We all thought climate change was the existential threat of the Earth...

Then the asteroids got involved...


Fun fact: while at NASA-JSC, I was on a team that designed a scale proof of concept for an asteroid capture system...

Bondag
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NASAg03 said:

will25u said:

We all thought climate change was the existential threat of the Earth...

Then the asteroids got involved...


Fun fact: while at NASA-JSC, I was on a team that designed a scale proof of concept for an asteroid capture system...


Did you teach anyone how to use it, or are you going to get a visit from Bruce Willis in a few years?
Rapier108
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will25u said:

We all thought climate change was the existential threat of the Earth...

Then the asteroids got involved...


Going to take a lot more data to determine if ti will hit or not.

Also, this is not a planet killing asteroid. It could destroy a city if it hit or airburst over it, but this isn't going to be Chicxulub 2.0.

Also, since I had to look up how to spell it, go Google "Chicxulub", They have a fun little easter egg associated with that word.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
RangerRick9211
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Rapier108 said:

will25u said:

We all thought climate change was the existential threat of the Earth...

Then the asteroids got involved...


Going to take a lot more data to determine if ti will hit or not.

Also, this is not a planet killing asteroid. It could destroy a city if it hit or airburst over it, but this isn't going to be Chicxulub 2.0.

Also, since I had to look up how to spell it, go Google "Chicxulub", They have a fun little easter egg associated with that word.


Wild that we're not sure, but totally sure of an "impact corridor" already!

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/

Scott has a video out on it:


He's arguing evacuations of entire areas are a possibility if the risk verifies.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Quote:

This equates to a 1 in 43 chance of impact, with a 97.7% likelihood that the asteroid will miss.
So a little bit more likely than dying of Covid during peak covid. Got it. That's all they had to say.
OnlyForNow
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How close does that fall to the equator…
TexAgs91
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RangerRick9211 said:

Wild that we're not sure, but totally sure of an "impact corridor" already!


Could be that they know the region of space that it will pass through but the question is when it will pass through it. Depending on that answer, the earth could be outside of that region or in a place that causes an impact somewhere along that line.
No, I don't care what CNN or MSNBC said this time
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samurai_science
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

Quote:

This equates to a 1 in 43 chance of impact, with a 97.7% likelihood that the asteroid will miss.
So a little bit more likely than dying of Covid during peak covid. Got it. That's all they had to say.



It was way less than that for Covid for everyone under 60
TexAgs91
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Here's a piece by Berger about the possible cancelation of SLS.

Quote:

Boeing has informed its employees that NASA may cancel SLS contracts

The White House has not made a final decision yet on the large rocket.

...

Giving a 60-day notice

The aerospace company, which is the primary contractor for the rocket's large core stage, issued the notifications as part of the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (or WARN) Act, which requires US employers with 100 or more full-time employees to provide a 60-day notice in advance of mass layoffs or plant closings.


https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/boeing-has-informed-its-employees-that-nasa-may-cancel-sls-contracts/

This only mentions SLS. Berger has been reporting in the past that they may be looking for a new booster for Orion.

Or has the mission completely changed and we're going direct to Mars as Elon wants to do?
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ABATTBQ11
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TexAgs91 said:

RangerRick9211 said:

Wild that we're not sure, but totally sure of an "impact corridor" already!


Could be that they know the region of space that it will pass through but the question is when it will pass through it. Depending on that answer, the earth could be outside of that region or in a place that causes an impact somewhere along that line.


It has to do with how other bodies will affect it and each other. People like think that because we understand gravity and orbital mechanics that we should be able to precisely predict something like this, but the math of the three (or more) body problem is intractable. The best we can do is a statistical probability.
TexAgs91
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ABATTBQ11 said:

TexAgs91 said:

RangerRick9211 said:

Wild that we're not sure, but totally sure of an "impact corridor" already!


Could be that they know the region of space that it will pass through but the question is when it will pass through it. Depending on that answer, the earth could be outside of that region or in a place that causes an impact somewhere along that line.


It has to do with how other bodies will affect it and each other. People like think that because we understand gravity and orbital mechanics that we should be able to precisely predict something like this, but the math of the three (or more) body problem is intractable. The best we can do is a statistical probability.
Yes, it's definitely a 3+ body problem, plus perturbations (the Yarkovsky Effect was mentioned). The statistical analysis given those dynamics produced this



which is a pretty big uncertainty region. The biggest obstacle to getting an accurate prediction of whether it will hit the earth or not isn't that it's a 3 body problem (numerical methods still allow for very high precision), or that perturbations are involved. It's the accuracy of our data on the asteroid. We'll get a chance to get better measurements in 2028 when it comes by again. Of course, there will still be some error in the measurements, but we'll get a much better prediction.
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nortex97
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Should see a static fire this week (guessing).

4 light years away, a planet orbiting a red dwarf appears to have sent a validated non-natural RF signal (back in 2019?). Per ESA Astron analyses (using phased array, multiple radio dishes to parse out the signal from background noise etc).

Sounds like a piano scale, imho. It lasted a few hours, narrow band.
Decay
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Discovering alien life was either going to be the most dramatic spaceship over the White House moment ever, or an incredibly boring search through records and data.

4 LY away is super close though
ABATTBQ11
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Yeah, that too. People think it's an exact precise science, but it's not.
TexAgs91
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nortex97 said:

4 light years away, a planet orbiting a red dwarf appears to have sent a validated non-natural RF signal (back in 2019?). Per ESA Astron analyses (using phased array, multiple radio dishes to parse out the signal from background noise etc).

Sounds like a piano scale, imho. It lasted a few hours, narrow band.
Very cool if it's true. We'll have to wait for the release of their analysis
No, I don't care what CNN or MSNBC said this time
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TexAgs91
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Yeah, that too. People think it's an exact precise science, but it's not.
I would call it a precise science, in that if we had exact data, we could precisely make predictions. Which is all you can expect from any precise science.
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Decay
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I understand how astronomy works and I still have no idea how we're able to make sense of orbits from handfuls of telescope images. Truly space magic, as the one aerospace class put it. Also probably why I did not graduate with an AERO degree
Mathguy64
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It's just mathematical curve fitting. We know the course is an ellipse and with enough points on the curve you can reverse engineer the focal points and curve as a set of parametric functions. It's basically a regression problem and the more data you have the better the curve can be fit.

If the curve were linear it's just 2 points of data. Parabolic 3.
Ag87H2O
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Mathguy64 said:

It's just mathematical curve fitting. We know the course is an ellipse and with enough points on the curve you can reverse engineer the focal points and curve as a set of parametric functions. It's basically a regression problem and the more data you have the better the curve can be fit.

If the curve were linear it's just 2 points of data. Parabolic 3.
Obligatory - Username fits.
Decay
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Mathguy64 said:

It's just mathematical curve fitting. We know the course is an ellipse and with enough points on the curve you can reverse engineer the focal points and curve as a set of parametric functions. It's basically a regression problem and the more data you have the better the curve can be fit.

If the curve were linear it's just 2 points of data. Parabolic 3.

Ah so most orbits we just assume are simple?
Mathguy64
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It's an ellipse. The problem is the ellipse isn't static. It's always changing focal points as something else affects the body. That can be theoretically be accounted for. So you refine the curve by constantly collecting data. They know wheee to look so you go look and see if it's where you predicted. If not, refine the prediction. It's just regression.

In theory the ellipse could get turned into a hyperbola in which case it never comes back.
nortex97
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Yeah well, that's just, like your opinion, man. /Big Lebowski.
PJYoung
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Scott Manleys video did a good job explaining all that stuff.
Decay
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Sure I could go to Scott Manley. But MathGuy came to me!
10andBOUNCE
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TexAgs91 said:

Here's a piece by Berger about the possible cancelation of SLS.

Quote:

Boeing has informed its employees that NASA may cancel SLS contracts

The White House has not made a final decision yet on the large rocket.

...

Giving a 60-day notice

The aerospace company, which is the primary contractor for the rocket's large core stage, issued the notifications as part of the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (or WARN) Act, which requires US employers with 100 or more full-time employees to provide a 60-day notice in advance of mass layoffs or plant closings.


https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/boeing-has-informed-its-employees-that-nasa-may-cancel-sls-contracts/

This only mentions SLS. Berger has been reporting in the past that they may be looking for a new booster for Orion.

Or has the mission completely changed and we're going direct to Mars as Elon wants to do?

Well we're a sub to Boeing. I've been slowly job searching knowing this was possibly on the horizon. Time to pick up the pace.
lb3
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Mathguy64 said:

It's just mathematical curve fitting. We know the course is an ellipse and with enough points on the curve you can reverse engineer the focal points and curve as a set of parametric functions. It's basically a regression problem and the more data you have the better the curve can be fit.

If the curve were linear it's just 2 points of data. Parabolic 3.
You're begging for a nerd fight using ill defined terms like 'points of data'.
nortex97
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Good, because I trust that it won't simply be cancelled, but cancelled and replaced.
Quote:

On Friday, with less than an hour's notice, David Dutcher, Boeing's vice president and program manager for the SLS rocket, scheduled an all-hands meeting for the approximately 800 employees working on the program. The apparently scripted meeting lasted just six minutes, and Dutcher didn't take questions.
During his remarks, Dutcher said Boeing's contracts for the rocket could end in March and that the company was preparing for layoffs in case the contracts with the space agency were not renewed. "Cold and scripted" is how one person described Dutcher's demeanor.
Giving a 60-day notice
The aerospace company, which is the primary contractor for the rocket's large core stage, issued the notifications as part of the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (or WARN) Act, which requires US employers with 100 or more full-time employees to provide a 60-day notice in advance of mass layoffs or plant closings.
"To align with revisions to the Artemis program and cost expectations, today we informed our Space Launch Systems team of the potential for approximately 400 fewer positions by April 2025," a Boeing spokesperson told Ars. "This will require 60-day notices of involuntary layoff be issued to impacted employees in coming weeks, in accordance with the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. We are working with our customer and seeking opportunities to redeploy employees across our company to minimize job losses and retain our talented teammates."
The timing of Friday's hastily called meeting aligns with the anticipated release of President Trump's budget proposal for fiscal year 2026. This may not be an entire plan but rather a "skinny" budget that lays out a wish list of spending requests for Congress and some basic economic projections. Congress does not have to act on Trump's budget priorities.
More at the link. Rumors I have read is that Trump will propose a 30 percent nasa budget cut. Not sure if true.

Cool shot:

nortex97
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A proposal (very long, but basically for a mini-starship for use exploring mars);

Quote:

Many people who have been following the floundering of Artemis are acutely aware of its problems. For this reason, some have proposed a radical solution. Instead of putting NASA in charge they would simply hand the whole program over to SpaceX to design, build, and fly.
As seductive as it might sound, I do not believe this proposal is either practical or proper. While SpaceX is technically excellent, it is also self-interested. It would represent an enormous conflict of interest for Elon Musk to avail himself of presidential power to direct many billions of dollars of taxpayers' money into his own company. This might work for a short time, but it would guarantee program cancellation as soon as political fortunes shift a bit to give Democrats control of either the House or the Senate. In order to survive and succeed, the Mars program must have broad support. This cannot happen if it is seen as the personal hobby horse or private piggy bank of an eccentric businessman who has now defined himself in extremely partisan terms.
As a somewhat superior alternative, one might launch the Mars program as a prize competition. For example, a $6 billion prize could be offered to the first company to land a 30-ton payload on Mars, with a further $6 billion awarded to the first outfit to land at least 4 people on Mars to explore there for at least a year and then return them to Earth. Second prizes of $4 billion for each milestone could be provided to the runner-up.
Such an approach could be quite economical, as the maximum cost to the taxpayer would be fixed in advance and no government money would be spent at all unless the missions really occurred and were successful.
There are problems with this approach, however. The government procurement system would have to be changed to allow billions of dollars to be appropriated but then set aside to be spent at an indefinite future date, with no change of mind on the part of the government allowed. Assuming that can be solved, still other difficulties remain. For starters, the only company that is currently situated both financially and technically to go after such a prize is SpaceX, so many might still regard it as self-dealing.
Moreover, there is more at stake in sending humans to the Red Planet than just Mars exploration per se. Human Mars exploration will accomplish great science it will let us know the truth about the potential prevalence and diversity of life in the universe. But it isn't just about science. It's about America. It's about who we are. Are we still a nation of pioneers, leaders of the free world, a peoplewhose great deeds are celebrated not just in museums but in newspapers? The program needs to be our affirmative answer to that existential question. That means that we need to do it, not just watch it. It needs to be our program, not theirprogram. Only in this way can it function to bring Americans and others who share our commitment to reason, science, freedom, creativity, and progress together in a celebration and demonstration of the power of our highest ideals in action.
Zubrin's been on about this stuff for years, but a prize-based race to Mars at least makes sense to me.

TexAgs91
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I wonder if Germans will catch a ride on that moon rocket

But seriously, why would Trump announce we're going to Mars, and then follow that up with a 30% budget cut?
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V8Aggie
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TexAgs91 said:

I wonder if Germans will catch a ride on that moon rocket

But seriously, why would Trump announce we're going to Mars, and then follow that up with a 30% budget cut?


Bc it won't be nasa.

Also I would prefer to leave nasa alone so long as funds stay directed at space.
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