Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

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Why?

AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

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I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.

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Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?

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Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.

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And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.

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4 years? It's not even three years yet, right?

74OA said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

---

I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.

---

Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?

---

Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.

---

And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.

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4 years? It's not even three years yet, right?

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Thought it was '21. It was '22.

I'm going to imagine if we play mediator, Russia is going to understand we'll have a Ukraine bias though not a strong one, as our goal will be to end a wasteful and destructive conflict by pragmatic means, still understanding we sympathize with the defensive nation as the more aggrieved party.

Pragmatic means most likely the lines won't change much except possibly to redraw them at more pragmatic borders, excepting some horse trading of this for that. I imagine Russia wants a shot at future long term political manipulation in Ukraine so they will insist on no encroachment of western alliances, while Ukraine will insist on a defensible border and possibly the recognition of the right to make separate pacts with other nations on its own borders. I think the border pretty much becomes a highly militarized one for the time being as Ukraine will in no way tray Russia or gamble with its own security so it will want to maintain arms trade with the west. I think if Ukraine feels it can be set up to remain secure longer than Putin projects to be in power (age/health), they will be satisfied. Europe may insist on a peacekeeping contingent.

I doubt there are any financial concessions but they may establish some agreement to reestablish trade or at least agree to terms regarding Black Sea access.

Russia will demand some sort of relief on sanctions and recognition of border changes.

I don't know how all the human rights violations and repatriation of respective citizens will be handled.

That's how it goes: nobody is going to be happy.
We should find out shortly how this might go after the upcoming defense conference

pagerman @ work said:

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Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

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Why?

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Trump prioritizes re-establishment of positive, non-adversarial relations with Russia. The pathway to that is via a favorable resolution that nets Putin his objectives, for the most part. That won't occur if you leave a loophole that allows Ukraine to continue buying US arms with Euro backing.

You have to effectively shut down Ukraine, disincentivizing European perpetuation of the conflict to the best of your ability, and leave no realistic alternative other than Zelenskyy accepting whatever Trump negotiates with Putin on Ukraine's behalf. On top of that, we all know that you don't tell Trump "no" without retribution of some sort.

This is simply my opinion based on Trump's 1st term, how he's approached the matter during his campaign, the opinions of his chosen cabinet, and his own actions in recent days which focus on Russian needs and wants while minimizing any Ukrainian agency in the matter. It could be a complete misread on my part.

Nor should they. Nobody in the administration is stupid enough to expect Russia to keep their word. Current efforts are geared towards forcing a conclusion and divestment on our part. Whatever happens afterwards is not seen as "our" problem.

Rossticus said:

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Nor should they. Nobody in the administration is stupid enough to expect Russia to keep their word. Current efforts are geared towards forcing a conclusion and divestment on our part. Whatever happens afterwards is not seen as "our" problem.

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Nor will Russia. After all, what Putin the dictator fears the most is the hugely dangerous example of a free, prosperous and democratic Ukraine on his doorstep for all Russians to see.

Stealing Ukraine's land, wealth and population and fueling the fiction of recreating Greater Russia are all just bonuses to his primary goal of shielding his own people from becoming infected with Ukraine's political virus.

That fear is only resolved if any peace deal turns Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia again. That is what Putin is negotiating for and if he doesn't get it from Trump he will either continue the invasion or pause while rebuilding his army and start all over again later.

And that's what we're giving him. Trump just said that Ukraine will not be a party to negotiations and will have to accept what he and Putin decide.

It is what it is. Putin is getting a short term victory and an easy path to future control of Ukraine. Trump touts "peace for our time". "Peace" via a peace offering of Ukraine to Russia.

I wouldn't attribute it to weakness. Trump's geopolitical vision places greater strategic value in bringing about an immediate end to the war while ensuring a positive relationship with Putin/Russia going forward.

Disincentivizing similar future behavior by Russia or any other country, or deterring future European destabilization by Russia, via the outcome of this war, is not a goal the administration sees as beneficial to US interests.

So, less weakness and more a drastic swing as to what the new administration prioritizes geopolitically.

I'm pretty sure that the EU and the other NATO countries will have a say in whatever happens. If Ukraine wants to continue and has Europe's blessing ans support, I think they can last another year without US support.

Might do it to bleed RU more for a better settlement.

Russia is a dying empire, literally. Negative birth rate, average age of death is lower than retirement age, and the war in Ukraine took a large portion of the male working force. During the Cold War we won by outspending Russia and it looked like Biden was trying to do the same. China is a bigger threat which is why Trump is shifting military and economic assets to defeat them

Staff please get control.

This is about Strategy. Which includes US interest and budget. No one is talking about Russian propaganda like the other thread. Which is all BS.

This is about observational facts. Ukes can't make up ground.

This is about the EU role in securing their continent.

This is about a treaty signed in 1994 where the entire situation was different.

Jesus, even NATO is an ancient artifact that should be entirely renegotiated.

We live in an entirely different world vs when those 2 documents were signed. Also, the US is ****ing broke.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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74OA said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

---

I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.

---

Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?

---

Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.

---

And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.

---

And prove to Taiwan (and China) that we are an unreliable ally with security assurances that only last as long as the attention span of our population. We helped convince Ukraine to give up their nukes in return for security assurances. Whatever else USAID and the CIA and Victoria Nuland-types did to create a corrupt system in Ukraine, we made a commitment to help them avoid exactly this situation if they gave up their nukes, and now we want to walk away and leave them to the wolves. Makes me pretty sick to my stomach to think about it really.

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How many US troops are you willing to commit?

This is the only question.

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Why? Because you say so? You don't even know how long the invasion has been going on.

Ukraine doesn't need foreign manpower, it is still limiting its minimum draft age to 25, after all. What Ukraine needs is more tools to kill more Russians, not to be forced into capitulation when Russia is running on fumes and waste all the human and materiel sacrifice to date.

If Trump wants a good peace deal he should keep arming Ukraine and force Putin to make serious concessions. That is the real question at hand. REALITY

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Trump doesn't want a good peace deal. He wants any peace deal so he can say he made one.

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again what's the alternative endless war? If this continues there is not going to be much of UKE left to rebuild.

P.U.T.U said:

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Russia is a dying empire, literally. Negative birth rate, average age of death is lower than retirement age, and the war in Ukraine took a large portion of the male working force. During the Cold War we won by outspending Russia and it looked like Biden was trying to do the same. China is a bigger threat which is why Trump is shifting military and economic assets to defeat them

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The Han's in China, backbone of the CCP are not in much better shape demographically.

Appears that a Shahed drone has hit the containment shield around Chernobyl Number 4. Punched through the first layer. Could be a wayward drone. Could be Putin making a demonstration of something. A singular Russian commander also doing something similar. RUS sympathizers will claim Ukes did it.

Either way, the actual nuclear material release threat is pretty minimal I would think. Resources would be immediately on hand to patch anything that managed to break through into anything truly dangerous. Air defenses whatcha doing? Could be an effort to spread AD even further by Russia. Low blow tactic but effective. Everything else being equal, my logic would lean this way.

NATO is a different topic.

I'm pretty pro Ukrainian in regards to the war, and have been generally supportive of US assistance to Ukraine from the beginning. I recognize Ukraine has corruption issues, but as we have recently unearthed domestically, it is by no means exceptional in this regards. Our own corruption is many multiples of their GDP, it would seem.

That being said, strategically there are really limited options now. Both sides are exhausting politically acceptable available manpower resources, and Russia has systematically lost its equipment and reserves advantage in many respects. It retains some advantage in artillery total numbers and of course in air power but both sides carefully respect eachother's air defenses and air power is of limited use. My view is this will mean both that Russia can't take much more territory without considerably more losses all the while its economy slowly breaks down as it can't replace critical items under sanction. It doesn't appear to me the rate of minor incremental gains on the Donbas front weighs well against the losses sustained in the conflict and the strategic economic challenges that the sanctions cause.

For Ukraine, they lack the manpower and military forces necessary to sustain a major counterattack now that the front has stabilized. Their options are limited, and each passing day is a tiny bit less territory they might retain, and a slightly worse negotiating position. In pragmatic terms, they have no way to force major Russian concessions on territory, and can only hope to strike a security deal protecting the territory they will retain into the future. They will need a defense pact of alliance, and a heavily defended border that would deter a future invasion attempt. Minefields and fortifications to blunt an attack, air power and air defenses, and a large capable mobile reserve in each region, etc.

I think strategically, both sides are going to have to start serious negotiations given the battlefield realities.

I dislike that this will reward Putin with territorial gains by force but without allied ground combat forces, Ukraine can't take territory back.

❗️Russians attacked the shelter of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. https://t.co/i2KochVvuc pic.twitter.com/JAE9zdItpC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 14, 2025

What's sad is with the timing of the negotiations and attack on Chernobyl that the first thought in my head was a possible false flag attack. I just don't see what benefit Russia can get at this time attacking it but then again Russia does a lot of things that don't make sense.

Also the winds from Chernobyl are blowing directly towards Moscow. Russia probably knows a small drone can't do enough damage but there still is a chance

P.U.T.U said:

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What's sad is with the timing of the negotiations and attack on Chernobyl that the first thought in my head was a possible false flag attack. I just don't see what benefit Russia can get at this time attacking it but then again Russia does a lot of things that don't make sense.

Also the winds from Chernobyl are blowing directly towards Moscow. Russia probably knows a small drone can't do enough damage but there still is a chance

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Just to sow discord and doubt alone is worth a Shahed or two. It's cheap and worth it from their eyes. They are already claiming Uke false flag of course which many will eat up so just from that alone, it was worth it. Just like the Moscow terror attack. We still have at least one who still believes it was Uke gunmen that did it, even when Russia itself finally gave up the pretense of it.

The fourth phase of warfare is turning out to be more and more powerful every year. The information warfare domain. It's a significant portion of why Israel more or less is losing the Gaza war and why Russia has managed to gain the traction it has here stateside. It's cheap, mobile, can be waged form anywhere, easily deniable, and as AI and deepfakes continue to proliferate, going to get worse and worse. I am also personally convinced it was one of the early steps of the wedge that drove Elon and the liberal left apart.

Frankly, Russia would be stupid to NOT claim the Ukes did it at this point. It's not there is any honor left in this war or anything.

HoustonAg9999 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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74OA said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

---

I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.

---

Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?

---

Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.

---

And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.

---

And prove to Taiwan (and China) that we are an unreliable ally with security assurances that only last as long as the attention span of our population. We helped convince Ukraine to give up their nukes in return for security assurances. Whatever else USAID and the CIA and Victoria Nuland-types did to create a corrupt system in Ukraine, we made a commitment to help them avoid exactly this situation if they gave up their nukes, and now we want to walk away and leave them to the wolves. Makes me pretty sick to my stomach to think about it really.

---

How many US troops are you willing to commit?

This is the only question.

---

Why? Because you say so? You don't even know how long the invasion has been going on.

Ukraine doesn't need foreign manpower, it is still limiting its minimum draft age to 25, after all. What Ukraine needs is more tools to kill more Russians, not to be forced into capitulation when Russia is running on fumes and waste all the human and materiel sacrifice to date.

If Trump wants a good peace deal he should keep arming Ukraine and force Putin to make serious concessions. That is the real question at hand. REALITY

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Trump doesn't want a good peace deal. He wants any peace deal so he can say he made one.

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again what's the alternative endless war? If this continues there is not going to be much of UKE left to rebuild.

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I don't think you realize how big Ukraine is and how isolated the fighting is along the front to a few areas. And it's been in those same areas for almost two years.

This is putas response to his phone call with Trump.

Let's see things as they really are…

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russian-drone-sets-fire-to-chernobyls-containment-shield-9a52d939?st=PZYM2B&reflink=article_copyURL_share

74OA said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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txags92 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

---

Rossticus said:

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If Ukraine spurns whatever deal Trump works with Putin, my guess is that there will be a prohibition on US controlled arms sales to Ukraine.

---

I really hope Trump doesn't trade UKR sovereignty for some temporary peace while rewarding putin and all the evil actions of his minions.

---

Are you willing to commit US troops to this war?

Uke is running out of manpower to launch an offensive. It's just a slow grind that RU is committed to. The hope of RU exhausting itself has yet to materialize. After 4 years and billions spent, it's just a meat grinder. UKE is incapable of regaining it's lost territory so what are the options here?

---

Yeah, Russia has devolved to using non-mechanized human wave attacks and horse/donkey drawn carts for logistics because Putin is a master strategist.

---

And Ukraine cannot capitalize on this development.

That's the issue here. After 4 years...throw in the towel and leave European problems for Europe.

If Ukraine wants to win. They've got to win the air battle.

That's the only space left to gain and it will come at a terrible price. First go after AA positions and then head to head fighters. Spring thaw is their best window of opportunity.

---

4 years? It's not even three years yet, right?

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3 years next week

The Trump administration offered a "deal" to Ukraine over the weekend for access to its rare earth mineral resources. The deal does not include any security guarantees for Ukraine and so was rejected by Zelensky.

Quote:

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Ukraine is home to vast deposits of precious minerals critical for manufacturing high-tech products. The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that the country hosts deposits of 20 out of the 50 critical raw materials, including titanium, lithium and zirconium.

President Trump has said he wants $500 billion worth of such minerals from Ukraine to help reduce U.S. dependence on China, but Zelenskyy said any exploitation would need to be tied to security guarantees for Ukraine.

---

https://cnbc.com/2025/02/16/us-ukraine-could-still-secure-positive-minerals-deal-officials-say.html

Russian armored vehicles flying Soviet flags assaulted Ukrainian positions around Nikolskoye, Kursk Oblast this morning.

The column drove into a minefield and was swarmed by Ukrainian drones, taking heavy losses. pic.twitter.com/grlqIR8bi8

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 16, 2025

Quote:

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Ukrainian military had fully controlled Pischane village south to Pokrovsk

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/16-february-10-ukrainian-military-had-fully-controlled-pischane

Ukes pushing back in the Pokrovsk direction. Let's see if they can capitalize.

More on the Russian drone strike on the Chernobyl nuclear site.

"While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said there was no immediate radiation release, the massive, complexly designed New Safe Containment (NSC) structure was compromised and could suffer further damage, the experts told us. In addition, one expert expressed concern that in a worst-case scenario, the ensuing repair work could require the entire containment structure to be rolled back on tracks, exposing the destroyed inner core that the NSC was designed to encapsulate."

RADIATION

What the hell is this monstrosity?

GHUUUYUSSSS!!! LMAO pic.twitter.com/a64H2OfOUR

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) February 16, 2025

Meanwhile

Checking out some Ukrainian munitions at IDEX 2025 with @_edgegroup pic.twitter.com/56TFHsfAzp

— Preston Stewart (@prestonstew_) February 17, 2025