***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

9,565,237 Views | 52857 Replies | Last: 23 min ago by JFABNRGR
Ag with kids
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74OA said:



JFC...those are HORRENDOUS numbers...
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EFR
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Some of those numbers are significantly higher than estimated pre war inventory so I would take that with a huge grain of salt.
74OA
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Of course the numbers should not be taken as definitive, but prewar inventory counts did not include the vast numbers of retired vehicles and equipment that Russia has been forced to draw out of open-air storage yards, refurbish and press into action as the war dragged on.

RESERVES
74OA
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Note that the "eliminated personnel" label is a bit misleading as most sources reference that rough number as the estimated casualty count (killed and wounded), not total KIA, and many wounded were eventually returned to action.
Ag with kids
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74OA said:

Note that the "eliminated personnel" label is a bit misleading as most sources reference that rough number as the estimated casualty count (killed and wounded), not total KIA, and many wounded were eventually returned to action.

Even so...those are BAD BAD numbers.

Another year of this and they'll be sending 10 year olds from the hinterlands riding bicycles carrying hammers to attack the Ukes...
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74OA
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Agree, but Russia has 143M people to draw on and a disproportionate number of its casualties are from rural minority populations rather than among ethnic Russians.

As long as the Kremlin can largely insulate the ethnic Russian portion of its population from the horrors of war, it will remain casualty indifferent.
JFABNRGR
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Interesting weapon below that I don't believe was meant for infantry.

Also add another aircraft to that list. Ukes shot down an SU34 today or yesterday.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
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LMCane
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for those interested in daily Ukraine battle action check out the

ENFORCER podcast

he is great and they are very funny in lambasting the Russians and Iranians

https://www.youtube.com/@EnforcerOfficial
74OA
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USAF/USN fighters are now similarly using APKWS II rockets to take down larger drones. Much cheaper than using high-end air-to-air missiles.

"A Ukrainian Air Force F-16 was captured for the first time while using its Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) II guided rockets against a Russian unmanned system."

TARGET
PJYoung
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PJYoung
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Quote:

2. Russia's war in Ukraine is increasingly impacting the Russian people, forcing the Russian Presidential Administration and the ruling United Russia Party to invest in mitigating strategies ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections.

3. Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities prevented a Russian attempt to assassinate prominent Ukrainians and destabilize Ukraine.

4. Leaked messages from a senior Russian general support ISW's assessment that the Russian military command itself condones and encourages war crimes against Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs).

5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.

PJYoung
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74OA
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Damage further confirmed from the Ukrainian strike on an important missile plant deep inside Russia.

"Satellite imagery confirmed heavy structural damage at Russia's Votkinsk Machine Building Plant following a Ukrainian strike using FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles. The facility is a key production hub for Russian ballistic and strategic missiles, including Yars, Bulava, Iskander-M, and Kinzhal systems."

STRIKE
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Finally breaking my silence on this matter.

Ukrainian forces have launched counterattack operations in the Russian-occupied parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine and almost completely liberated that area from the Russian invasion forces.

According my estimations around 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of Ukrainian territory have been liberated within the last 20 days. This is more area than Russians conquered in December 2025.

2wealfth Man
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Waffledynamics said:



Quote:

Finally breaking my silence on this matter.

Ukrainian forces have launched counterattack operations in the Russian-occupied parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine and almost completely liberated that area from the Russian invasion forces.

According my estimations around 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of Ukrainian territory have been liberated within the last 20 days. This is more area than Russians conquered in December 2025.


It just feels like the Russians would absolutely crumble under any large scale offensive if Ukraine could muster up the forces and logistics necessary. Even if it was limited in scope.
docb
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https://www.reddit.com/r/TrendoraX/s/2hxDrFAJEp
That's a big fire. This is the Kaleikino oil pumping station which is fairly deep into
Russia.
PJYoung
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docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrendoraX/s/2hxDrFAJEp
That's a big fire. This is the Kaleikino oil pumping station which is fairly deep into
Russia.

Are those towers anti-drone stuff or something else
docb
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I don't know what they are but they look to be very purposefully built and not some sort of hastily constructed anti-drone stuff that I have seen on other refineries?
txags92
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PJYoung said:

docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrendoraX/s/2hxDrFAJEp
That's a big fire. This is the Kaleikino oil pumping station which is fairly deep into
Russia.

Are those towers anti-drone stuff or something else

Flare stacks? Or maybe some sort of lightning protection system?

ETA: They show up on google earth dating back to at least 2013, so I don't think they are air defense related and given that there are 3-4 per tank, I am guessing lightning protections of some sort. They do appear to be larger and painted red/white in 2026 vs 2013 though

2026


2013
JFABNRGR
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2wealfth Man said:

Waffledynamics said:



Quote:

Finally breaking my silence on this matter.

Ukrainian forces have launched counterattack operations in the Russian-occupied parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine and almost completely liberated that area from the Russian invasion forces.

According my estimations around 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of Ukrainian territory have been liberated within the last 20 days. This is more area than Russians conquered in December 2025.


It just feels like the Russians would absolutely crumble under any large scale offensive if Ukraine could muster up the forces and logistics necessary. Even if it was limited in scope.


What I have been seeing is an uptick in armor getting destroyed and its not during russian attack. I think its the front moving back into russian controlled territory and the range of their drones deployed from the front getting coverage over areas thought safe to the russians over the last year.

Its my understanding 300+ KM of ground retaken. It doesn't seem like a lot but it is if it exposes a lot of russian assets and logistics.

I think that refinery hit was the 3rd or 4th longest distance successfully hit target.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
lurker76
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They are not flare stacks that close to storage drums. Any major flaring event in one of them would cause catastrophic fires, spreading from drum to drum, in all likelihood. Even the radiant heat from a flare event would be a dangerous situation.
My guess would be lightning protection, looking at the positioning. There are a lot of cases of storage tanks catching fire due to lightning strikes.
Who?mikejones!
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Must be going poorly for the ruskies right now. Its one thing for Medvedev to throw around nuke talk.

Its another for putin to do it.
docb
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Just entered year 5 of the war and Russia can barely advance without having roughly a thousand men on horses, golf carts and dirt bikes killed every single day. Yea I would say it is going poorly.
Who?mikejones!
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ABATTBQ11
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Must be be weird for the Russians on the ISS with everyone watching their country trying to bomb civilians in real time
fullback44
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txags92 said:

PJYoung said:

docb said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/TrendoraX/s/2hxDrFAJEp
That's a big fire. This is the Kaleikino oil pumping station which is fairly deep into
Russia.

Are those towers anti-drone stuff or something else

Flare stacks? Or maybe some sort of lightning protection system?

ETA: They show up on google earth dating back to at least 2013, so I don't think they are air defense related and given that there are 3-4 per tank, I am guessing lightning protections of some sort. They do appear to be larger and painted red/white in 2026 vs 2013 though

2026


2013


definitely not flare stacks, there are way too many to be flares. I would think some type of lightning protection or some type of tank roof support ? and now maybe added drone nets ?
PJYoung
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74OA
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Canada continues to step up.

"Canada on February 24, 2026, announced a new package of military assistance to Ukraine that includes the donation of more than 400 armored vehicles and the extension of its military training mission, Operation UNIFIER, for an additional three years, the Canadian government said in a joint statement released in Ottawa."

VEHICLES
PJYoung
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aggiehawg
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Apparently, Elon cut off Russian access to Starlink?
Via Hot Air.
DCPD158
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aggiehawg said:

Apparently, Elon cut off Russian access to Starlink?
Via Hot Air.

I heard that they were hacking into Starlink and he fixed that issue. I could be wrong.
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PJYoung
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DCPD158 said:

aggiehawg said:

Apparently, Elon cut off Russian access to Starlink?
Via Hot Air.

I heard that they were hacking into Starlink and he fixed that issue. I could be wrong.

Yes that.

And it's thought that Russia's inability to access Starlink has led directly to Ukraine's recent gains on the ground.
ErnestEndeavor
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Yeah it was a few weeks ago. Russia had been using some captured and/or smuggled Starlinks to guide their troops on the battlefield and some of their drones. They were never intentionally allowed to have them. I'm not sure how the blocking works but I believe the the hardware have been using are on a blacklist and cannot access the network anymore.

Since that time Ukraine has actually been able to regain some territory and a lot of Russian attacks have been far less effective. Their communication has been severely hampered. Russia is trying to figure out alternatives. They had become a bit dependent on it near the front line.
74OA
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Most of the human cost of Putin's war has fallen on Russia's ethnic minorities. That's changing.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought from the very start of his "special military operation" in Ukraine to prevent the conflict from intruding into the lives of Russian citizens, particularly those who live in Moscow and St. Petersburg. As the war enters its fifth year, this effort is increasingly failing."

IMPACT
Waffledynamics
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