Yukon Cornelius said:
Geeze. How many Russians on the front? At that rate is there a timetable for how soon Ukraine can push the out?
I have been watching for a long time. IMO its not a matter of the Ukrainians pushing out the russians. Its a matter of putin realizing the cost of holding Ukrainian territory isn't worth the losses, they are absorbing on the front but now more importantly 1800KM away, and putin recalling his forces to X line.
Ukes have taking back some ground (500km2) but its very slow and TBH I think they are better off destroying assets far beyond the front than the front itself, waiting on orcs to pull back in order to preclude further losses in the rear.
There have been some chatter about Ukes on the south bank of the Dnipro river but I think were still aways out from that being meaningful. IMO if Ukes could get back 25 KM on south or left bank they would let orcs have the rest.
The current rate at which they are producing and deploying long range drones is almost miraculous. Of note to me their long range strikes are almost all O&G and the MIC. At mid range to short its mostly destruction of SEAD which supports the long range mission and opens up additional capabilities such as the UKE air assets. They are not even prioritizing distant russian air and sea bases not seeing them as the biggest threat, bit eventually they will be hitting them as well. On the front the cheap drones are so saturated they don't always hit the vehicles first now and simply just chase down and kill every single soldier in the vicinity. Orc suicides is super high right now.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn