***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

9,505,118 Views | 52753 Replies | Last: 42 min ago by txags92
Waffledynamics
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MaxPower
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Rossticus said:


Something weird is going on because I can't imagine a scenario where a million Russian men disappear and there isn't an uprising. All these parents, siblings, spouses and kids are just like, "Oh well, them's the breaks"? Either that number is inflated or large volumes of discontents are being unalived in the homeland we aren't hearing about.
Rossticus
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A lot of it is also the Russian propaganda machine convincing the Russian poors that this is an existential struggle for existence against the west, who will come to destroy Russia if victory isn't secured in Ukraine. It's being sold as a patriotic duty in a lot of regions and there is an attempt to shame those that won't join up. Lots of logical mental hoops have to be jumped through for us to believe that junk but not so much for them.

Additionally, the sign-on bonuses for these guys are big money for a lot of the Russian poor and makes a big difference to the families they leave behind. In many instances the families themselves are pressuring their husbands and sons to go off to fight in the interest of getting that payout.
JFABNRGR
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Read the Gulag Archipelago, then it, along with much else will make sense.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Rossticus
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I kid you not. Russia sounding the alarm over "unkillable Ukrainian drug zombies".

"It became known about "unkillable zombies" in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Deputy Sobolev said that drugs will not protect the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from death"

You'll have to translate the rest of the article if you want more laughs.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2025/10/07/stalo-izvestno-o-neubivaemykh-zombi-v-ryadakh-vsu.html
USAFAg
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Rossticus said:

I kid you not. Russia sounding the alarm over "unkillable Ukrainian drug zombies".

"It became known about "unkillable zombies" in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Deputy Sobolev said that drugs will not protect the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from death"

You'll have to translate the rest of the article if you want more laughs.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2025/10/07/stalo-izvestno-o-neubivaemykh-zombi-v-ryadakh-vsu.html


Sounds like the same bull**** they said about the WW drivers in VN. Had to be on drugs
ABATTBQ11
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There is a phenomenal YouTube channel called Paper Skies run by a guy whose dad was a Soviet fighter pilot. He details a lot of Soviet aviation history, particularly military history, and touches on this in one of his video on the An-12 and why it is referred to as the, "Black Tulip" since it was used heavily to ferry dead soldiers back from Afghanistan.

Essentially, what you're talking about happened during and after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with far fewer dead, and it resulted in a huge cultural shift and discontent within the USSR, reduced support for the invasion, and their eventually withdrawal. The Soviets realized it and the potential ramifications for future conflicts, so they moved to subtly counter it through state controlled media that dehumanized their soldiers and glorified dying for the motherland in movies, shows, books, etc. This is where the proliferation of, "cargo 200" came from. The Soviets really knew what they were doing and pretty much desensitized Russian culture from military losses.
Who?mikejones!
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Looks like a dang v-1
ABATTBQ11
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I'll take all of that with a grain of a salt because whoever wrote it doesn't understand the leaps in design capacity between the 1970's and 2020's. The Tomahawk entered service with the Navy 40+ years ago, meaning it was being developed 50 years ago on paper with slide rules.

A cruise missile developed today with COTS parts probably wouldn't take long to develop and field at all, especially if you had an industrial base with the experience to build autonomous weapons and avionics and control systems.
74OA
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ABATTBQ11 said:

I'll take all of that with a grain of a salt because whoever wrote it doesn't understand the leaps in design capacity between the 1970's and 2020's. The Tomahawk entered service with the Navy 40+ years ago, meaning it was being developed 50 years ago on paper with slide rules.

A cruise missile developed today with COTS parts probably wouldn't take long to develop and field at all, especially if you had an industrial base with the experience to build autonomous weapons and avionics and control systems.

I suspect a lot of people assume that Ukraine is a third world country for some reason. In fact, it is highly industrialized and played a major military-industrial role in the Soviet Union's war machine.

Much of that capability and capacity is still resident in Ukraine today and we've watched it cobble together surprisingly effective weapons and mass produce them ever since the war started.

So, I don't find the Flamingo claims too much of a stretch at all, particularly as the Europeans are quietly providing all sorts of technical assistance, too.

FLAMINGO
TommyBrady
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Whats the average income in Ukraine?

Higher than most EU countries?
chiphijason
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Ukraine is short of people for its economy. Why aren't we deporting people to Ukraine to help them rebuild?
Ducks4brkfast
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Ukraine's avg income is about 1/5 that of the EU.
ABATTBQ11
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No, it's super low, like a few hundred USD per month. There are higher paying industries like IT that can pay a couple thousand per month, though.

The thing is, the Russians have stunted their economic growth since pre-WWII. The only benefit to them from the Soviets was the Soviet regionalization policies made them one of the biggest parts of the USSR's manufacturing and weapons production base. They ended up with a lot of factories, engineers, and skilled labor. In fact, prior to the war, Russia bought a lot of weapons components from Ukrainian companies.
bonfarr
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Waffledynamics said:




Going to be a lot of military aged men getting roofied and find themselves waking up at a Russian Army mobilization center. I would be real careful where I buy a drink or meal if I was a 19 year old there
PJYoung
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bonfarr said:

Waffledynamics said:




Going to be a lot of military aged men getting roofied and find themselves waking up at a Russian Army mobilization center. I would be real careful where I buy a drink or meal if I was a 19 year old there

Lots of stories about Africans, Cubans, you name it getting fooled into enlisting. They all think they're gonna be in support roles or construction or something and end up on the front lines.

Methods of deception

Fake job promises: Recruits are often promised lucrative, non-combat roles, such as construction workers, security guards, or drivers. After arriving, they are instead deployed to the front lines, sometimes after being coerced into signing contracts they cannot read because they are in Russian. In some cases, these fraudulent job offers are advertised on social media or through informal channels.

Targeting vulnerable populations: Russia has targeted foreign students, migrant workers, and individuals from economically disadvantaged countries. For example:
Some migrants have been threatened with deportation or faced false criminal charges unless they enlist.
African students have reported facing visa threats that coerce them into joining the military.

Human trafficking networks: Indian and Cuban authorities have dismantled human trafficking networks that were tricking their citizens into military service with Russia. These schemes often use middlemen and agencies to lure individuals with false promises.

Exploitation of debt and poverty: Many recruits come from poor backgrounds and are enticed by large signing bonuses and monthly salaries, which far exceed what they could earn at home. Some recruits go into debt to pay recruiters for a chance at these better financial opportunities, only to find themselves trapped.

fullback44
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74OA said:

Rossticus said:

Interesting take…



"From what I've seen and heard, most of the information circulating isn't accurate. Those were old tests, probably prototype trials, and the idea may have been to make the Russians focus attention there. Some of the images circulating are months, even a year old, from testing phases.

Now there's a real internal controversy in Ukraine. A Ukrainian military officer named Yuri Kazyanov, who heads a center producing drones and rockets for the army, has claimed the entire Flamingo story doesn't exist calling it a corruption scheme and accusing also Yermak. (The company behind the Flamingo project, Fire Point, is also behind the long-range drone campaign against Russian refineries.)

Kazyanov and others are now publicly questioning how such a company could dominate so much of Ukraine's drone and missile funding. He even led protests in Kyiv over this, claiming that smaller, established units are being sidelined.

The response from command was harsh instead of addressing the claims, they reportedly ordered his entire production unit to be disbanded and sent to the frontline as infantry.

Now, about the missile itself. I've looked carefully at the Flamingo's supposed specifications, and they simply don't make sense physically. They're saying it's ten times more effective than a Tomahawk that's unrealistic. A Tomahawk took decades of development; it reaches about 2,500 km with a 425 kg warhead. The Flamingo, according to these claims, would carry over 1,100 kg, be 12 meters long, and fly at 950 km/h all developed in just some years, using a training jet engine. That's just not compatible with the laws of physics or aerodynamics.

So, maybe there is a missile project something was likely built or tested. But it's almost certainly not what's being claimed publicly. From how things look now, this feels much more like a psyops or PR campaign than a breakthrough weapon, Of course, I'd be happy to be wrong it'd be good news if Ukraine really had such capabilities.

But as of now, based on the evidence, the internal disputes, and the technical inconsistencies, this is how I see it, Remember, this is only my consideration and what I see. A missile could exist, perhaps something was tested, but most likely it's not the weapon the public is being told it is. The physics, logistics, and timeline simply don't add up."

Here's a good look at a Flamingo. In the second photo including humans for scale, it appears much larger than Tomahawk. That volume may partly provide for its reputed long range and large warhead. The powerplant is an open question, but from watching the Ukrainians innovate over the course of the war, it's likely a proven product adapted for this purpose.

AP

WOW, thats a big ass missile. I can see why it can carry such a big warhead.. something tells me the information on the Flamingo may actually all be true, just based on size alone.

great post
lb3
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Tomahawks are skinnier but are by no means small:
PJYoung
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Ulysses90
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MaxPower said:

Rossticus said:


Something weird is going on because I can't imagine a scenario where a million Russian men disappear and there isn't an uprising. All these parents, siblings, spouses and kids are just like, "Oh well, them's the breaks"? Either that number is inflated or large volumes of discontents are being unalived in the homeland we aren't hearing about.


Russia lost a bit more than 1 million men in WWI before the civil unrest got to the point of the Bolsheviks could get enough support to challenge the White Army. That was between three and four years of bleeding.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Ok. This would be funny if after all the downplaying of Tomahawk practicality we just cannibalized a bunch of decommissioned ships and overloaded Ukraine with launchers.

txags92
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Rossticus said:

Ok. This would be funny if after all the downplaying of Tomahawk practicality we just cannibalized a bunch of decommissioned ships and overloaded Ukraine with launchers.



Except they can't sail into the Black Sea. So unless we are bringing them over land, Ukraine can't use them.
ABATTBQ11
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Just take out the launchers. You don't need the whole ship.
txags92
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Just take out the launchers. You don't need the whole ship.

Why not just use an MRC?
ABATTBQ11
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Probably don't have them to give, but we can give them Tomahawks and a bunch of launchers to adapt.
Sq 17
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If the Orcs could forcibly conscript or coerce or deceive enough people to create a force could they equip and even get the troops to the line

I will hang up and listen
txags92
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Sq 17 said:

If the Orcs could forcibly conscript or coerce or deceive enough people to create a force could they equip and even get the troops to the line

I will hang up and listen

Depends on how you define "equip". Can they give a rifle for every 2 soldiers and put a 2 man crew in a 50 year old T-72? Sure. Not sure they can equip them to the standards you would expect for a modern Army.
ErnestEndeavor
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ErnestEndeavor
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Sq 17
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Thanks not sure what T-72 do they have s few dozen a few hundred or or a few thousands that they could recommission?

The earlier post referenced sign on bonuses and recruiting efforts to mount a major offensive
Very possible the offensive is Russian hyperbole and propaganda

Seems likely the Russians have 10's of thousands of bodies for the grinder just trying to get an informed opinion on how effective those bodies would be
CS78
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Theres probably some caves somewhere with a few million Mosin Nagant rifles packed in cosmoline.
2wealfth Man
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AtticusMatlock said:



that's gonna hurt with winter practically here in Russia
txags92
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Sq 17 said:

Thanks not sure what T-72 do they have s few dozen a few hundred or or a few thousands that they could recommission?

The earlier post referenced sign on bonuses and recruiting efforts to mount a major offensive
Very possible the offensive is Russian hyperbole and propaganda

Seems likely the Russians have 10's of thousands of bodies for the grinder just trying to get an informed opinion on how effective those bodies would be

There was a post from a group that tracks the number of tanks in various russian storage sites a page or two ago. They were suggesting they had about 2k T-72s that were still there, but would need to be refurbished and refitted before they could be used.
74OA
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