***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

9,127,875 Views | 52179 Replies | Last: 10 sec ago by MaxPower
Touchless
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Thanks. That makes sense. I did also find it odd a longer version of the video wasn't shown to see the aftermath so that raised my suspicion a bit.
Who?mikejones!
How long do you want to ignore this user?


This is being reported across the net.

Has the hallmarks of ai to me.
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


Ukraine claiming to have hit a Kilo class sub in port using an underwater drone
lb3
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Who?mikejones! said:

Has the hallmarks of ai to me.
The American accented rescuers shouting in English didn't give it away?
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag with kids said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

shiftyandquick said:

MouthBQ98 said:

The thread is about tactics and strategy and when strategy is being addressed in this static grinding stage of the war where tactics are fairly settled to infiltration attacks and drone warfare, strategy predominates, and that is largely influenced at this stage by geopolitics. Neither side can win this war as things stand. It could be a generational conflict, one of the longest in modern history, so the focus has become the strategy around how to bring it to an end versus letting it drag on. Russian strategy is simply to slowly trade relatively useless and cheap poorly trained infantry and older vehicles for a few dozen or couple of hundred meters of ground a day while maintaining the pressure of drone attacks on infrastructure. Ukrainian strategy is to make this as costly as possibly while buying time to hope Russia tires of the war or something else internal or external for Russia takes precedence.


I for one don't understand why the Trump as administration believes they will get any good faith negotiations out of Russia. Russia will lie regarding any future intent if it serves their purposes so if they make promises (bribes) for economic deal that would seem to benefit the USA to pressure Ukraine to concede favorable terms for Russia, there is no reason to believe Russia will adhere to any of the terms. As such, part of Russian strategy is to string the Trump administration along by telling them what they want to hear regarding the potential for future economic deals while simply continuing the grinding war. This maintenance of the status quo seems to be satisfactory for Russia.

Why Trump has adopted Russia's positions is a source of mystery. Other than of course the promise of money for the US.

Most other presidents would have used a stick to bring Russia to the table. But Trump and Biden have been extremely weak and ineffective and lackluster in their support.


It's not a mystery. The Democrats supported arming Ukraine, so Trump took the exact opposite position. That's partisan politics.


What a terrible take. Trump has managed to get the useless NATO membership off their ass and spending on defense. He had to do that by withholding aid to put enough fear into them to galvanize them into action.
The US is not their Daddy always ready to bail them out of their own piss poor decision making.


What a terrible take. Name a policy position that Democrats and Republicans share. You can't because their default is the opposite of whatever the other side is doing.

Perfect example is Trump supporters fellating him about Operation Warp Speed at the end of 2020 and Democrats ****ting all over him for going around the normal FDA approval process and swearing up and down they'd never take the "Trump vaccine." As soon as Biden is sworn in, Democrats are touting their efforts at rolling out covid vaccines as fast as possible and Republicans are crying about how it's untested and only has emergency FDA approval. There were posters here going through Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify their flip flopping when their posts from August 2020 were quoted in April 2021. It was truly a sight to see.

And Trump had **** to do with the increase in European defense spending. The Europeans started ramping up defense spending in 2022/2023. Trump has probably increased the urgency of an independent defense industrial base, but they were well on their way to rearming before November 2024.

Ummm...one of the largest spikes in EU NATO defense spending occurred during 2017-2019. Largely due to Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric.


EU defense spending grew 10% over that time. It also grew 10% from 2015-2017. In fact it's pretty linear from 2015-2021. From 2022-24 it grew 33%. The jump from 2022-23 is not one of the largest spikes in European spending, it's the largest spike, just beating out 2002-03 and the start of the war in Iraq percentage-wise.

Trump is not the driver of European defense spending his followers like to think he is, and this is not some kind of 10D chess.
Gordo14
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ABATTBQ11 said:

Ag with kids said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

shiftyandquick said:

MouthBQ98 said:

The thread is about tactics and strategy and when strategy is being addressed in this static grinding stage of the war where tactics are fairly settled to infiltration attacks and drone warfare, strategy predominates, and that is largely influenced at this stage by geopolitics. Neither side can win this war as things stand. It could be a generational conflict, one of the longest in modern history, so the focus has become the strategy around how to bring it to an end versus letting it drag on. Russian strategy is simply to slowly trade relatively useless and cheap poorly trained infantry and older vehicles for a few dozen or couple of hundred meters of ground a day while maintaining the pressure of drone attacks on infrastructure. Ukrainian strategy is to make this as costly as possibly while buying time to hope Russia tires of the war or something else internal or external for Russia takes precedence.


I for one don't understand why the Trump as administration believes they will get any good faith negotiations out of Russia. Russia will lie regarding any future intent if it serves their purposes so if they make promises (bribes) for economic deal that would seem to benefit the USA to pressure Ukraine to concede favorable terms for Russia, there is no reason to believe Russia will adhere to any of the terms. As such, part of Russian strategy is to string the Trump administration along by telling them what they want to hear regarding the potential for future economic deals while simply continuing the grinding war. This maintenance of the status quo seems to be satisfactory for Russia.

Why Trump has adopted Russia's positions is a source of mystery. Other than of course the promise of money for the US.

Most other presidents would have used a stick to bring Russia to the table. But Trump and Biden have been extremely weak and ineffective and lackluster in their support.


It's not a mystery. The Democrats supported arming Ukraine, so Trump took the exact opposite position. That's partisan politics.


What a terrible take. Trump has managed to get the useless NATO membership off their ass and spending on defense. He had to do that by withholding aid to put enough fear into them to galvanize them into action.
The US is not their Daddy always ready to bail them out of their own piss poor decision making.


What a terrible take. Name a policy position that Democrats and Republicans share. You can't because their default is the opposite of whatever the other side is doing.

Perfect example is Trump supporters fellating him about Operation Warp Speed at the end of 2020 and Democrats ****ting all over him for going around the normal FDA approval process and swearing up and down they'd never take the "Trump vaccine." As soon as Biden is sworn in, Democrats are touting their efforts at rolling out covid vaccines as fast as possible and Republicans are crying about how it's untested and only has emergency FDA approval. There were posters here going through Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify their flip flopping when their posts from August 2020 were quoted in April 2021. It was truly a sight to see.

And Trump had **** to do with the increase in European defense spending. The Europeans started ramping up defense spending in 2022/2023. Trump has probably increased the urgency of an independent defense industrial base, but they were well on their way to rearming before November 2024.

Ummm...one of the largest spikes in EU NATO defense spending occurred during 2017-2019. Largely due to Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric.


EU defense spending grew 10% over that time. It also grew 10% from 2015-2017. In fact it's pretty linear from 2015-2021. From 2022-24 it grew 33%. The jump from 2022-23 is not one of the largest spikes in European spending, it's the largest spike, just beating out 2002-03 and the start of the war in Iraq percentage-wise.

Trump is not the driver of European defense spending his followers like to think he is, and this is not some kind of 10D chess.


Trump is however supporting Russia. It's why we've provided 0 military or economic support since he came into power. It's also why we're trying to force a terrible peace deal down Ukraines throat without any semblance of coherent strategy.

People love his dialog on NATO spending but it really misses the mark on historical context. Do any of you really think that we wanted Germany to build a powerful military especially after the collapse of the USSR? Is it possible that maybe we extracted serious indirect value by being Europe's security guarantor? If our goal was simply to raise NATO military spending then what's the point of threatening to invade Greenland? What are the costs of unwinding our support for NATO?

NATO military spending is rising as a response to the threat of Russia not Trump. It's why the Baltic states and Poland have never taken their eye off the ball and why it's hard to get Spain to commit even today.

Knowing how little Trump understands the details and how unmotivated he is to actually understand the world around him, I am fairly convinced he believes military spending is a direct cash transfer to the US. While there historically there has been a general association of military spending and buying from American companies, our reckless foreign policy is untethering that trend as fast as possible. His behavior has actually hurt American weapons makers relative to European ones in an environment that has Europe rapidly increasing military spending. So the benefits of their military spending increase are not coming our way the way they would have under better leadership.
Ag with kids
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:

Ag with kids said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

shiftyandquick said:

MouthBQ98 said:

The thread is about tactics and strategy and when strategy is being addressed in this static grinding stage of the war where tactics are fairly settled to infiltration attacks and drone warfare, strategy predominates, and that is largely influenced at this stage by geopolitics. Neither side can win this war as things stand. It could be a generational conflict, one of the longest in modern history, so the focus has become the strategy around how to bring it to an end versus letting it drag on. Russian strategy is simply to slowly trade relatively useless and cheap poorly trained infantry and older vehicles for a few dozen or couple of hundred meters of ground a day while maintaining the pressure of drone attacks on infrastructure. Ukrainian strategy is to make this as costly as possibly while buying time to hope Russia tires of the war or something else internal or external for Russia takes precedence.


I for one don't understand why the Trump as administration believes they will get any good faith negotiations out of Russia. Russia will lie regarding any future intent if it serves their purposes so if they make promises (bribes) for economic deal that would seem to benefit the USA to pressure Ukraine to concede favorable terms for Russia, there is no reason to believe Russia will adhere to any of the terms. As such, part of Russian strategy is to string the Trump administration along by telling them what they want to hear regarding the potential for future economic deals while simply continuing the grinding war. This maintenance of the status quo seems to be satisfactory for Russia.

Why Trump has adopted Russia's positions is a source of mystery. Other than of course the promise of money for the US.

Most other presidents would have used a stick to bring Russia to the table. But Trump and Biden have been extremely weak and ineffective and lackluster in their support.


It's not a mystery. The Democrats supported arming Ukraine, so Trump took the exact opposite position. That's partisan politics.


What a terrible take. Trump has managed to get the useless NATO membership off their ass and spending on defense. He had to do that by withholding aid to put enough fear into them to galvanize them into action.
The US is not their Daddy always ready to bail them out of their own piss poor decision making.


What a terrible take. Name a policy position that Democrats and Republicans share. You can't because their default is the opposite of whatever the other side is doing.

Perfect example is Trump supporters fellating him about Operation Warp Speed at the end of 2020 and Democrats ****ting all over him for going around the normal FDA approval process and swearing up and down they'd never take the "Trump vaccine." As soon as Biden is sworn in, Democrats are touting their efforts at rolling out covid vaccines as fast as possible and Republicans are crying about how it's untested and only has emergency FDA approval. There were posters here going through Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify their flip flopping when their posts from August 2020 were quoted in April 2021. It was truly a sight to see.

And Trump had **** to do with the increase in European defense spending. The Europeans started ramping up defense spending in 2022/2023. Trump has probably increased the urgency of an independent defense industrial base, but they were well on their way to rearming before November 2024.

Ummm...one of the largest spikes in EU NATO defense spending occurred during 2017-2019. Largely due to Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric.


EU defense spending grew 10% over that time. It also grew 10% from 2015-2017. In fact it's pretty linear from 2015-2021. From 2022-24 it grew 33%. The jump from 2022-23 is not one of the largest spikes in European spending, it's the largest spike, just beating out 2002-03 and the start of the war in Iraq percentage-wise.

Trump is not the driver of European defense spending his followers like to think he is, and this is not some kind of 10D chess.

Look, I'm not a Trump sycophant.

But, the increase in spending from 2017-2019 was one of the largest in decades.

Quote:

President Trump's leadership has changed the outlook for NATO. During a two-year period in Trump's first term, from 20172019, new NATO defense expenditures increased by $130 billion, the biggest spike in a generation.

Kind of interesting that this was right after Trump said he was seriously thinking about bailing on NATO if they didn't up their spending.

I'm sure everything was just coincidental, though, if it makes you happy to not give Trump any credit...

BTW, a big chunk of that increase in EU defense spending from 2022-2023 wasn't for NATO; it was to spend that money in support of Ukraine... which is an entirely different discussion.



BUT...I'm going to stop this discussion here and won't respond further on this. It is detouring from the purpose of the thread.
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know. I'm just saying it is part of a much larger and longer trend. Trump had a lot of anti-NATO rhetoric, but spending was already increasing before he was even a candidate, and the spending in 2017 had already been budgeted before he even won.

Yes, a lot of that spending went to Ukraine, but they've continued it and are backfilling/expanding everything they're sending. Trump's rhetoric probably has some effect, but the Europeans also know he's on his second term and things can easily swing back pretty soon. As far as they're concerned, he may be a political blip, but Russia is now an existential and immediate problem.

I will give Trump credit for the Europeans deciding to expand their own defense industrial base though. The latest EU defense proposals are seeking to expand their domestic manufacturing capabilities. That said, they were looking to expand their production of things like artillery shells domestically anyway because they have realized they cannot keep up in a large scale conflict and the smart munitions NATO has come to rely on will not be enough on the modern battlefield.
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Pretty sure your numbers include our spending as well. Europe's defense spending didn't increase by $130 billion. More like $20 billion.

European spending
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/euu/european-union/military-spending-defense-budget

US spending
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget
Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG


Quote:

NEW: The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide "robust" security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with "NATO-like" security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia's territorial claims to Ukraine's sovereign territory.

Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people, comparable to Nazi Germany, in an effort to further militarize Russian society.

The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet denied the loss of a Russian submarine as the result of a Ukrainian unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against the Novorossiysk Naval Base on the night of December 14 to 15.

Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Waffledynamics
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Claude!
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I have a growing feeling, probably not too controversial, that there's not a tactical or strategic way to get Russia honestly to the table while Putin is still in charge.
Mathguy64
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Claude! said:

I have a growing feeling, probably not too controversial, that there's not a tactical or strategic way to get Russia honestly to the table while Putin is still in charge alive .


FIFY
chiphijason
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If the West bought a few thousand Chinese drones per day, that would swing the Chinese manufacturing advantage towards Ukraine. Artificially inflating the Chinese drone market to set it up for a crash when the war ends would also probably be in our strategic interest.
Claude!
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mathguy64 said:

Claude! said:

I have a growing feeling, probably not too controversial, that there's not a tactical or strategic way to get Russia honestly to the table while Putin is still in charge alive .


FIFY


Well I figure there's only one way Putin gives up power.
2wealfth Man
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Someone named Seymour Hersh says a settlement of the war is potentially near. Not validating or endorsing anything , just putting it out here for consumption,

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/a-complicated-settlement-for-ukraine

Quote:

Putin is facing economic, political, military, and public pressure, though it is unclear if anyone in Russia beyond him has a say in the talks with Ukraine. The breakthroughs in the talks have stemmed not from President Donald Trump, who is more and more detached in his second term, but from hard work by the policy planning staff at the State Department, buttressed by the brains and sophistication of little known Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, a Yale Law School graduate who has emerged as a rock star in the recent talks. Driscoll is said to be a shoo-in to replace the incompetent Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth sometime early next year, after Congressional candidates have formally filed for the November elections.

Quote:

In the view of US officials involved in the negotiations, Putin is facing increasing political, economic, and military opposition in Moscow; mortgage rates are soaring and the Russian military is in serious disarray has realized that he must end the war. One US official involved in the talks told me that since the end of the summer Putin has been aware that he can "no longer act alone. . . . He needs money and has got to consolidate what he's already achieved" in Ukraine. "He is not a superman."

I have been told that there are six essential elements of the tentative settlement to which "Russia has essentially agreed" and they are "not likely to be significantly modified." According to a draft agreement that has yet to be signed, they include:

Ukraine will be allowed to build and maintain a standing army of 800,000, which is much greater than Russia initially proposed. The previous proposal called for a standing Ukrainian army of 600,000.

Russian compliance with the agreement will be monitored by Europeans on the ground, buttressed by American satellite intelligence.

Russia will not deploy its troops within 150 miles of the border with Ukraine.

Russia agreed that by 2027, if Zelensky has an opponent, Ukraine could have an election for the presidency.

Russia is also insisting that the entire territory of Donbas, the easternmost region of Ukraine, most of which is under Russian control, will be in effect ceded to Russia. One solution now on the table would involve the notion of suzerainty: a relationship where a powerful state has dominance over a weaker state and steers its foreign policy and defense, while allowing it internal self-governance.

The agreement allows Ukraine to join the European Union as soon as January 2027, a long sought economic goal of Zelensky's. Russia still publicly objects to it, but a commitment by Washington and the European Union not to admit Ukraine into NATO will make EU membership for Ukraine acceptable to Putin.

Quote:

The US official told me that Putin is aware that there is little to be gained by continuing his offensive in Ukraine, where territory has been gained at the cost of heavy losses of men and materiel. Ongoing warfare is not going to change the balance of forces. Putin is under pressure to end the war from his military and from a public staggered by its continuing cost, and inflation is at 8.4 percent. Some of the most senior Russian generals, while still loyal to Putin, urgently want the depleted Russian Army to get out.

Putin is staying afloat by borrowing money from Russian banks that are not permitted to lend to the population. The US official told me: "The big breakthrough seems to be Putin's willingness to concede that moving farther into the heartland of Ukraine [is] not worth the cost and the uncertainty of the Army and population's long-term support . . . [So a] settlement [is] closer than ever.

Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Old as dirt journo who made his name during Vietnam.

Seymour Myron Hersh (born April 8, 1937) is an American investigative journalist and political writer. He gained recognition in 1969 for exposing the My Lai massacre and its cover-up during the Vietnam War, for which he received the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. During the 1970s, Hersh covered the Watergate scandal for The New York Times, also reporting on the secret U.S. bombing of Cambodia and the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) program of domestic spying. In 2004, he detailed the U.S. military's torture and abuse of prisoners at Abu Ghraib in Iraq for The New Yorker. Hersh has won five George Polk Awards, and two National Magazine Awards. He is the author of 11 books, including The Price of Power: Kissinger in the Nixon White House (1983), an account of the career of Henry Kissinger which won the National Book Critics Circle Award.
mickeyrig06sq3
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The problem if logic vs hubris. Logic would've ended this 2 years ago once things were mostly at a stalemate with front lines shifting occasionally. Putin's pride is getting in his own way. It's the equivalent of taking away your mom's keys when it's no longer safe. They'll fight tooth and nail because of pride, logic be damned.
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Russia continues to successfully evade US sanctions, and Ukrainian civilians are being maimed and killed because of it.

"Every time one of these (Iskander) missiles lands, destroying power plants, hospitals, churches and schools, investigators search for clues in the wreckage. Almost every time, they note a disturbing detail. Though the weapons are manufactured in Russia, they are dependent on components from companies based in other countries, including the United States. Investigators have found parts from Intel. Parts from Analog Devices, best known for its semiconductors. Parts from Texas Instruments, famous for its graphing calculators."

TRAGEDIES
74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Another ugly scar on the face of Ukraine.

74OA
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Europe steps up with a $105B loan for Ukraine.

MONEY

........plus another $45B in military aid.

AID
bobbranco
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Destroy more Russians! Good for Ukraine.
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Interesting take by the Wall Street Journal

Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
MaxPower
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rossticus said:

Interesting take by the Wall Street Journal


Especially after the EU's recent commitments, I'm failing to see the point of these negotiations. As long as Ukraine can get arms and intelligence from someone they are going to keep fighting. Trump wanted Europe to stand on their own and that's what they are doing. It's kind of funny that's effectively undermining the US's ability to negotiate.
AlaskanAg99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
74OA said:

Europe steps up with a $105B loan for Ukraine.

MONEY

........plus another $45B in military aid.

AID


This is 100% awesome. Its their problem to solve.

Good luck ever getting paid back.
aTm '99
EastSideAg2002
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rossticus said:

Interesting take by the Wall Street Journal



That guy is willing to throw Ukraine under the bus for a special side deal with putin.
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
WTF are we doing?

"Most of these companies and individuals were sanctioned because they were connected to Russian financial networks, industrial suppliers, or defense-related sectors. Some supplied technology, machinery, or shipping/logistics services that could support Russian companies under U.S. sanctions, including those linked to military or dual-use industries."

PJYoung
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Rossticus said:

WTF are we doing?

"Most of these companies and individuals were sanctioned because they were connected to Russian financial networks, industrial suppliers, or defense-related sectors. Some supplied technology, machinery, or shipping/logistics services that could support Russian companies under U.S. sanctions, including those linked to military or dual-use industries."




What do you think? Corruption.
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?


'Russian Telegram channel reports "chaos" in the 272nd Motor Rifle Regiment near Kupiansk. After "big stars" from Moscow replaced the regimental commander in early December, troops were given unrealistic orders to take Pishchane and Kurylivka and push on Kupiansk-Uzlovyi, despite shortages of men, drones and equipment.

Units are being split to plug gaps elsewhere, UAV parts are in such short supply that soldiers are forced to buy them with their own money, and assaults are carried out by small infantry groups with drone-only resupply. Equipment bought privately is then burned in poorly prepared attacks.

This paints a picture where Russian units in the city are fragmented and close to being cut off, while generals keep reporting "success".'
Rossticus
How long do you want to ignore this user?


"Putin's statements continue to make clear that he will not be satisfied with a peace agreement along the lines of those based on the 28-point proposal currently under discussion.

Putin may make temporary compromises, as he claimed during his Direct Line speech during the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska summit, but his unwavering commitment to his original, maximalist war aims shows that he will not be satisfied with such an agreement and will continue to pursue his full goals even after he signs an agreement.

Any peace agreement must therefore ensure a strong Ukraine with robust security guarantees in order to establish a lasting and sustainable peace and prevent renewed Russian aggression. The Kremlin has publicly and explicitly rejected such security guarantees multiple times, however."
First Page Last Page
Page 1483 of 1492
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.