I think air defense is all but gone for most of the country, leaving what they have viable to protect putin, moscow, and a few other locations.

Uke air assets are flying closer to the lines than previously and there is video of the tuapse refinery (i think) where an ada fires its payload 4 shots all missing and nothing more even though that location has been hit by the Ukes on 4 different occasions.

Quote:

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Looking back on it, the Ukrainian victory driving the orcs out of Hostomel Airport and preventing the rapid airlift of troops and supplies to Kiev's doorstep on the opening nights of the war turned the tide long term. Had the Russians established that foothold and been able to short circuit the supply chain for troops massing around Kiev by airlifting supplies into Ukraine, this war would likely have been over in less than a month. It was a very pivotal victory for Ukraine.

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Indeed. And those were Russia's most elite troops, as well. Second turning point was Elon providing those Starlinks to aid the Ukrainians communications.

JFABNRGR said:

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I think air defense is all but gone for most of the country, leaving what they have viable to protect putin, moscow, and a few other locations.

Uke air assets are flying closer to the lines than previously and there is video of the tuapse refinery (i think) where an ada fires its payload 4 shots all missing and nothing more even though that location has been hit by the Ukes on 4 different occasions.

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The Russian air defense across Russia is increasingly overwhelmed to counter the Ukrainian air campaign. The situation in Russia's South, most notably in and around Tuapse, is currently the most prominent example, but it is happening across the country.

What was once Russia… pic.twitter.com/NxhR7Q388Y

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 1, 2026

What was once Russia advantage, its size, has become a liability. The Russian regime has to make compromises, and this is protecting Moscow at all costs while abandoning other parts of Russia.

However, in Moscow it is dawning that even the capital is at risk of being successfully struck, no matter whether Russian rust buckets are rolling or not. This is why Putin made the pathetic offer for having a truce on May 9. It is as transparent as it can get: Russians are very afraid.

Moscow might get soon into the cross hairs, but this isn't even the worst for Putin. The Russian regime will have to allocate huge amount of air defense assets to the capital and by doing so exposing the rest of the country. And there is not much they can do.

The sunk cost has Putin all-in, within reason. He's not going to start WW3 but he'll start pushing boundaries at some point to see if NATO and Ukraine support responds in unified fashion or fractures. He's certainly not withdrawing. This war will have to be pried from his cold, dead hands.

We are launching an army reform. Throughout April, the key areas of the reform were agreed – the military command and the Government defined the framework for change. Now, in May, all key details will be finalized. In June, the reform will begin – and the first results must… pic.twitter.com/pvK6eZ1sTd

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 1, 2026

Zelenskyy announces a major Ukrainian military reform starting in June. Pay for rear positions will rise to a minimum of 30,000 hryvnias. Infantry contracts will range from 250,000 to 400,000 hryvnias based on combat tasks. Mobilized soldiers will begin phased discharge this year… pic.twitter.com/O2OI4gMy8D

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) May 1, 2026

"Zelenskyy announces a major Ukrainian military reform starting in June. Pay for rear positions will rise to a minimum of 30,000 hryvnias. Infantry contracts will range from 250,000 to 400,000 hryvnias based on combat tasks. Mobilized soldiers will begin phased discharge this year based on clear time criteria."

I get it, you’ve had enough Perm content.

But in case you haven’t, here’s how the Perm oil depot looks after yet another deep strike today🔥 pic.twitter.com/AsAV0W6cW3

— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) May 1, 2026

Foam party in Perm, russia... People are delighted pic.twitter.com/O2V4tal3Ur

— Kvist (@kvistp) May 1, 2026

Eliminatus said:

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Definitely waiting on better confirmation pictures but if -57s were truly damaged to the point of being inoperable or even destroyed, that is such a black eye to Russia in a loooong war of black eyes.

How embarrassing would it be if you keep your super duper fighter jet (ostensibly) out of the war for fear of combat losses only to have it picked off of the ground far in the rear?

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Estimate is that there are no more than 40 57s with zero ongoing production at this time. Even taking out one or two at a time here and there is HUGE.

Commander of the Third Army Corps Andriy Biletskyy:

"Removing a third of the infantry from the front line and replacing them with ground unmanned systems is the target I am setting for the corps this year." pic.twitter.com/JzrSe29zxN

— Volodymyr Tretyak 🇺🇦 (@VolodyaTretyak) May 1, 2026

Rossticus said:

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The sunk cost has Putin all-in, within reason. He's not going to start WW3 but he'll start pushing boundaries at some point to see if NATO and Ukraine support responds in unified fashion or fractures. He's certainly not withdrawing. This war will have to be pried from his cold, dead hands.

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Yeah, I realize this. But what's good for Russia =/= what's good for Putin and I really do think that ending the war is the only thing that's going to salvage what's left of Russia as a player on the world stage. Just IMO

NEW: Russian officials continue to temporarily deport children from occupied Mariupol to St. Petersburg for cultural indoctrination.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian military-patriotic groups are expanding across occupied Ukraine, including by training youth to operate drones.… pic.twitter.com/upSIAxMjV7

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 30, 2026

"Russian officials continue to temporarily deport children from occupied Mariupol to St. Petersburg for cultural indoctrination.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian military-patriotic groups are expanding across occupied Ukraine, including by training youth to operate drones.

ZNPP occupation authorities continue indoctrinating and militarizing children in occupied Enerhodar to channel them into Russia's nuclear sector.

Russia's ruling United Russia party announced pro-occupation candidates for the September 2026 State Duma "elections" in occupied Ukraine.

A major mine operator in occupied Luhansk Oblast is withholding wages and laying off workers, underscoring the instability of Russia's extractive project in occupied Ukraine.

Russian authorities continue detaining residents in occupied Ukraine and pursuing severe treason sentences for perceived pro-Ukrainian activity.

Israeli and Ukrainian media report that Russia is exporting grain stolen from occupied Ukraine to Israel.

Russian state-owned VTB Bank is expanding investment in residential construction in occupied Crimea."

Rossticus said:

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The sunk cost has Putin all-in, within reason. He's not going to start WW3 but he'll start pushing boundaries at some point to see if NATO and Ukraine support responds in unified fashion or fractures. He's certainly not withdrawing. This war will have to be pried from his cold, dead hands.

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This can be accomplished.

For 27 months, Russia advanced. That just stopped.

Russian forces have now lost net territory two months running—67 square kilometers in April, 31 in March. The likely reason isn't on the front line. It's 200 km behind it.

Ukrainian drones hit 440 targets last month. They've… pic.twitter.com/6dfWqD7nAX

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 1, 2026

Ukrainian drones hit 440 targets last month. They've destroyed 492 Russian air defense systems since Junefaster than Moscow can replace them. The protective architecture is collapsing, which means deeper strikes reach further targets, which means Russian regiments arrive at the front already bleeding fuel, ammunition, and command.

The drone campaign won't end the war. It's slowly tilting the math.

😳🇸🇰🇺🇦 No peace agreement with the Russian Federation is possible without the consent of the Ukrainian side, — Fico

He also stated that the country supports Ukraine's desire to join the EU.

‼️ It is currently unknown what caused the change in Fico's rhetoric towards Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/rozp24HY50

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 2, 2026

What is "FICO"? Google search gave up the credit score but nothing relevant

agent-maroon said:

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What is "FICO"? Google search gave up the credit score but nothing relevant

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Prime Minister of Slovakia...

Ukraine shot down another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jet worth USD 34 million over the Zaporizhzhia region tonight pic.twitter.com/GVF11QpAmN

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 2, 2026

Map update. Things are apparently moving fast tonight. Drones have reached the Leningrad region near St. Petersburg. More drones have reached Moscow, Tver, Vladimir, Yaroslavl and Nizhny Novgorod. Russian channels report a large number of drones but say little about air defense. https://t.co/yfzFQPOo1d pic.twitter.com/o5Ac6TOpFz

— raging545 (@raging545) May 2, 2026

Harder to defend against larger amounts, and it also burns through air defense munitions.

Waffledynamics said:

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Harder to defend against larger amounts, and it also burns through air defense munitions.

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This will drive the counter UAS and counter everything else industry.


We've always assumed the threats will be large ballistic missiles.

However, that threat will not go away.

So, now we have to deal with this other threat.

It will be interesting to see where this goes...

Ag with kids said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Harder to defend against larger amounts, and it also burns through air defense munitions.

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This will drive the counter UAS and counter everything else industry.


We've always assumed the threats will be large ballistic missiles.

However, that threat will not go away.

So, now we have to deal with this other threat.

It will be interesting to see where this goes...

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Directed energy weapons in space for the large ballistic missiles, directed energy weapons on hunter drones and ground systems for the drones. That is where it is headed.

SouthTex99 said:

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Clearly there is no silver bullet for either side. But if everything is holding it appears drone warfare is game changing moving forward. What I'm not understanding yet is if more is better? How effective are overwhelming swarms or is there a number of drones that is cost effective regardless? Is it better to send literal thousands vs one or groups at a time?

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Always changing and war gaming is the path forward and most effective strategy. Make the enemy plan for everything everywhere.

Мінус ще один російський носій «калібрів». Генерал-майор Євгеній Хмара доповів про успішне ураження обʼєктів порту Приморськ. Спільна операція нашої Служби безпеки України, Сил безпілотних систем, ССО, ГУР та прикордонників. Дякую всім вам, воїни, за скоординовану роботу!…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 3, 2026

"Minus another Russian carrier of "Kalibrs." Major General Yevhenii Khmara reported on the successful strike against the facilities of the Primorsk port. A joint operation of our Security Service of Ukraine, Unmanned Systems Forces, SSO, GUR, and border guards. Thank you all, warriors, for the coordinated work!

The "Karakurt" missile ship was hit, as well as a patrol boat and another tanker from the shadow oil fleet. Significant damage was also inflicted on the infrastructure of the oil-loading port. Every such result of ours limits Russia's war potential. I have authorized the Security Service of Ukraine to deliver additional fully justified responses to Russian strikes on our cities and villages. Russia can end this war of theirs at any moment. Prolonging the war will only lead to the scaling up of our defensive operations.

Thank you all who are fighting for Ukraine!"

Another russian “Kalibr” carrier gone — Karakurt-class missile ship.

Less terror. More balance. pic.twitter.com/UY9UOGRJ8G

— UAVoyager🇺🇦 (@NAFOvoyager) May 3, 2026

Our warriors continue to apply sanctions against Russia’s shadow oil fleet – two such vessels were struck in the waters at the entrance to the port of Novorossiysk. These tankers had been actively used to transport oil – not anymore. I am grateful to Chief of the General Staff… pic.twitter.com/8aCse8h95j

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 3, 2026

Second tanker seen is likely the ORION A, currently surrounded by tugboats outside of Novorossiysk. pic.twitter.com/rIN3lO2bQ0

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 3, 2026

Here we go. High-res satellite footage published by Exilenova shows all 50,000 cubic meter tanks at the pumping station were destroyed, major process piping burned out after oil spills, and the site’s technological process was knocked out indefinitely after two SBU raids. #Russia https://t.co/JM3g8DYOfj pic.twitter.com/PwDawvZhK1

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 3, 2026

Interesting

More Colombians fight on Ukraine's front than any other foreign nationality — about 7,000 men, the largest single contingent by a wide margin.

Decades hunting guerrillas, paramilitaries, and cartels at home prepared them for the trenches of Donbas. — United24. 1/ pic.twitter.com/qSwf4jp6hG

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 3, 2026

Underground defensive structures — that’s why ruSSia is demanding the transfer of the Donetsk region in negotiations, since it is practically impossible to capture it.

Footage of one of the largest underground complexes of the 81st Airmobile Brigade on the Kramatorsk axis.

The… pic.twitter.com/XVAzlHcTPo

— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝕯𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝕯𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱△ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 (@TheDeadDistrict) May 3, 2026

According to Ukrainian Air Force figures, in just the last 48 hours, Russia launched at least 1,067 Geran-2, Gerbera, Geran-3, and other similar types of drones at Ukraine. Notably, this was done without any large-scale missile attack.

Over the last few months, Russia has…

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) May 3, 2026

Maybe, just maybe, the Russian people are finally waking up and turning against Putin. Here's hoping.

"Mood in Russia turns bleak as war in Ukraine drags on and economy suffers. With the war in its fifth year, talks stalled and sanctions biting deeper, Russian President Vladimir Putin's ratings are falling and citizens are voicing despair."

MOOD

That's a noteworthy 6 month trend.

The last night operation against the Primorsk oil terminal at the Baltic Sea in Russia caused significant damage at the oil facility. The NASA Firms map shows several heat signatures at the oil loading pier, storages and buildings.

In addition, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy… pic.twitter.com/J6mVQfzHws

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 3, 2026

Today’s attack on Moscow serves as a rehearsal for a strike on the Kremlin. Historically, the FP-1 successfully bypassed all layers of the Russian capital's defense, hitting the very heart of Moscow and stopping only 6.5 kilometers from the Kremlin. The DroneBomber map displays… pic.twitter.com/zB8BGK8jp5

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 4, 2026

The DroneBomber map displays all verified air defense positions in the Moscow region.

This was a genuine penetration of:
Three layers of defense;
101 confirmed air defense positions;
The areas of responsibility of at least 10 regiments of S-400 strategic systems (including those deployed in Losiny Ostrov Park and the Timiryazev Academy fields);
Over 80 Pantsir and Tor units;
Specialized positions on city-center rooftops and towers along roads, specifically built to intercept low-flying targets.

As the guy says, I'll believe it when I see it, but to have Russians even airing this sort of speculation publicly is really something and speaks to what a train wreck this has all become domestically for Russia.

Will believe it when I see it, but this sounds plausible and a is positive sign that Russia may be heading towards internal rupture. The West will need to be less gullible this time, however; retreat is not rapprochement, and these people are not our friends. https://t.co/jpgKOqr8F5

— Dave Troy (@davetroy) May 4, 2026

Putin and his family have stopped visiting residences in Moscow region and Valdai. He is spending more time in bunkers, including in the Krasnodar area in southern Russia, often for weeks at a time, while state media use pre-recorded footage to project normality.

— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 4, 2026

“Putin is like the new Banksy sculpture in London – he does not want to see or hear. He listens only to the security services, which now run all spheres of life, and hopes that people will adapt to this as the new normal,” says @AndrKolesnikov.https://t.co/zryNyxwRoR

— max seddon (@maxseddon) May 4, 2026