Years ago, I worked at a famous fintech company. The product I managed was used by wealth managers of many other famous companies. I imagined that they did some secret alchemy to come up with stock/fund picks, but what did I see? Each one of these guys had some weird "custom" formula as part of their scorecard which was as obscure and unexplainable as possible to generate recommendations. When I asked them about it, they could not clearly articulate. Or maybe they did not want to. Most of them failed to beat the market. A few did, but not consistently.
I realized that they were all full of hot air and the industry was built on weak foundations. No one could predict the future consistently and reliably. These stock analysts did not know anything more than what you or I could with some common sense and application. I never hired a wealth manager or planner. I did very well for myself in the market just by common sense and not complicating things. When I did complicate things or got greedy, I lost money.
A month ago, these guys were calling a recession. Now they tuck their tails between their legs. They change their opinion like the wind.
Cramer on 7 Apr: Jim Cramer says a recession is likely
Cramer on 29 Apr: Jim Cramer Dismisses Recession Panic
Just like that, Wall Street's recession calls are vanishing
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-china-tariff-pause-has-wall-street-scaling-back-recession-calls-100054918.html
I realized that they were all full of hot air and the industry was built on weak foundations. No one could predict the future consistently and reliably. These stock analysts did not know anything more than what you or I could with some common sense and application. I never hired a wealth manager or planner. I did very well for myself in the market just by common sense and not complicating things. When I did complicate things or got greedy, I lost money.
A month ago, these guys were calling a recession. Now they tuck their tails between their legs. They change their opinion like the wind.
Cramer on 7 Apr: Jim Cramer says a recession is likely
Cramer on 29 Apr: Jim Cramer Dismisses Recession Panic
Just like that, Wall Street's recession calls are vanishing
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-china-tariff-pause-has-wall-street-scaling-back-recession-calls-100054918.html
Quote:
Trump's latest tariff pause has Wall Street reeling back its recession calls.
Discussion of an economic downturn later in 2025 had surged as economists argued Trump's widespread tariffs would boost inflation and slow economic growth. Now, with the bulk of tariffs on goods from China paused for 90 days and optimism around further trade deals building economists argue that economic growth will still slow later this year, but the odds of a recession have diminished.
"The administration's recent dialing down of some of the more draconian tariffs placed on China should reduce the risk that the US economy slips into recession this year," wrote JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli, who had been the first Wall Street economist to call for a recession after Trump's large tariff increase.
"We believe recession risks are still elevated, but now below 50%."
Feroli's logic is simple: Tariffs are essentially a tax. With the latest tariff cuts, the estimated effective US tariff rate has fallen from roughly 24% to 14%. This creates a $300 billion "tax cut" for American consumers that likely would've been swallowing the brunt of the price increases caused by tariffs. Americans paying higher prices and eventually being unable to spend as much was a key part of why economists have been worried about tariffs leading to an economic slowdown.
