Powell spoke yesterday and was a bit negative. Seems he's focused more on inflation than the labor market as far as rates based on what I read.

He will speak tomorrow which will provide more clarity.

On Polymarket, getting a cut in September has gone from 80% odds last week to 60% this week.

BREAKING: The odds of the Fed NOT cutting rates in September 2025 rise to 34%, the highest since August 1st, per Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/LF4bGtCoQD

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 21, 2025

Prosperdick said:

---

Apollo79 said:

---

When Powell last slashed rates inflation was way worse

Hth

---

Had to help PeePaw/Kamala win...thank God it didn't work.

---

Not completely.

The Federal Reserve today made its final interest rate decision of 2024, capping a year during which the central bank provided some financial relief to inflation-weary borrowers in September by ushering in its first rate reduction in four years.

On Dec. 18, the Federal Reserve made its third consecutive cut of 2024, reducing the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points. Yet the Fed also projected a slower pace of cuts in 2025, a move that had been expected by economists given the nation's still-sticky inflation rate and some of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies, which, if enacted, could prove inflationary.

The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation since March 2022, when it began ratcheting up rates to cool the economy, eventually pushing its benchmark rate to its highest level in 23 years. While inflation has moderated considerably since then, November's Consumer Price Index rose 2.7%, outpacing the Fed's goal of driving down inflation to a 2% annual rate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-meeting-rate-cut-interest-rates-december/

Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

Juan Lee Pettimore said:

---

Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

---

Per the Federal Reserve Act, a board member of the Fed can only be fired by a President for cause, not for policy disputes. Powell refusing to lower interest rates almost certainly wouldn't clear the for cause hurdle.

The FED will cut rates when bond yields tell them to. Bond yields are not telling them to right now.

If they do for some reason cut rates before bond yields have sold lower, the bond market will revolt and yields will jump, same as last year before the election.

Inflation is already here. Cut the interest rate so the housing market improves.

Rapier108 said:

---

Nitro Power said:

---

You guys can keep clamoring for rate cuts, but a deep dive into what is really going on in the economy does not warrant rate cuts.

---

They want the rate cuts to "help Trump," whatever the hell that means.

They don't care if it is actually a good thing or not, but because Trump demands it, they support it.

---

but when they make cuts to help Harris ahead of the election its all good? Was that inverse MAGA

Also, most financial experts say its time for a cut but can continue on with muH maGA dEmands it

Nitro Power said:

---

Rapier108 said:

---

Nitro Power said:

---

You guys can keep clamoring for rate cuts, but a deep dive into what is really going on in the economy does not warrant rate cuts.

---

They want the rate cuts to "help Trump," whatever the hell that means.

They don't care if it is actually a good thing or not, but because Trump demands it, they support it.

---

And see, even a 0.5% cut really won't move the needle. People want to get the rate back to where they were (30 year mortgage @ 3-4%)...that isn't happening, nor should it.

---

Can you explain your reasoning for why that shouldn't happen again? I'm not trying to argue but instead understand. As a first time homeowner myself sitting with an interest rate in the 6% range, I've been hoping for an opportunity to refinance and wish there was a chance to.

Nitro Power said:

---

You guys can keep clamoring for rate cuts, but a deep dive into what is really going on in the economy does not warrant rate cuts.

---

Correct

Sims said:

---

docb said:

---

Inflation is already here. Cut the interest rate so the housing market improves.

---

Cutting short rates will likely raise long (mortgage) rates.

Housing market doesn't have a rate problem. It has a price problem (as a function of median incomes).

---

Also correct

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

The FED will cut rates when bond yields tell them to. Bond yields are not telling them to right now.

If they do for some reason cut rates before bond yields have sold lower, the bond market will revolt and yields will jump, same as last year before the election.

---

So who profits by preventing the bond market from revolting?

Here is my take on it. Certainly not financial advise, and I am sure many on here will disagree with me. When you lower interest rates, especially to the point they were, money in a bank is gets next to zero return. Yes, I understand their are alternatives, but some people such as myself do not want to expose everything we have into volatile markets. While a 4% CD is not great, at least it' secure.

The real problem is so many people live on credit. The biggest culprit is our very own government. Further to this point the rapid increases in rates in 2023 were problematic. People bought homes that take 8-10 months to build and by the time they sign their papers, the rate had jumped 3%+. That is substantial.

Talk to people who bought homes in the 90's. They thought 6% was good. Talk to people that bought homes in the 80's and they would have begged for 6%.

TLDR: My personal opinion, less spending and start living with in your means (not use specifically).

richardag said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

The FED will cut rates when bond yields tell them to. Bond yields are not telling them to right now.

If they do for some reason cut rates before bond yields have sold lower, the bond market will revolt and yields will jump, same as last year before the election.

---

So who profits by preventing the bond market from revolting?

---

Anyone that borrows money

docb said:

---

Inflation is already here. Cut the interest rate so the housing market improves.

---

Housing market needs a correction as well.

Juan Lee Pettimore said:

---

Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

---

Because it's called the Federal Reserves Board of Governors. Whatever he's saying is likely the consensus of the Board. And as someone else said, firing him has to be for cause. It can't be a Michael Scott "It's beCAUSE I hate him."

It's not so much about inflation per se, but it has more to do with concern over tariffs and CPI/PPI. If the administration can ever figure out what the hell they're going to do regarding tariffs, it might help ease these concerns.

Yes, but housing prices relative to income were far, far different.

Many don't remember the 80s... Many don't know why we were in that situation to begin with. Funny how both parties continue to do the same thing decade after decade.

I understand what you are saying. Without completely derailing this thread, I think the stock market, along with the housing market is due a deep correction. That is why I prefer something I feel to be a bit more secure. I have plenty in the market, just not everything. Sorry for the detail.

Morbo the Annihilator said:

---

Yes, but housing prices relative to income were far, far different.

---

Lowering rates will pull them further apart.

Incomes aren't going up at the rate of asset inflation.

You can either raise median incomes on a real and not nominal basis or you can lower asset prices.

If you raise incomes on a nominal basis, asset prices will continue to outpace them and get further out of reach.

Raising median incomes --> Increase cost of goods-> Increases inflation.

It is really a mess that we are in. I sincerely sympathize with first time home buyers and young adults who are just getting their lives started.