DallasAg 94 said:

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You have conflated different things.

Fiat currency like the USD is backed by debt. It requires debt. Watch the end of "It's a Wonderful Life."

Your preference to hold cash in Savings is noble and prevalent in like the '80s. My parents lost their home because they had a pre-approved mortgage rate of 9% that converted to 16% when they tried to execute it. Long story.

During the Carter years ... you could put money in Savings and get a great return. During the Reagan years, it was decided that the Stock Market would be where everyone put their money. I believe it was him that allowed companies to transition from their pension to use it for investments.

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Using my asset to make money without paying me for it is almost a crime. You store it for me and I pay you a fee. You loan it out to make money, you pay me. The mean savings rate range pre-Obama was 3-4%. During Reagan, it was 5-8%. We should never go back to the Obama era.

Sims said:

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Morbo the Annihilator said:

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Yes, but housing prices relative to income were far, far different.

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Lowering rates will pull them further apart.

Incomes aren't going up at the rate of asset inflation.

You can either raise median incomes on a real and not nominal basis or you can lower asset prices.

If you raise incomes on a nominal basis, asset prices will continue to outpace them and get further out of reach.

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This

Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

All you're gonna see is the back of your eye lids.

Nitro Power said:

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I understand what you are saying. Without completely derailing this thread, I think the stock market, along with the housing market is due a deep correction. That is why I prefer something I feel to be a bit more secure. I have plenty in the market, just not everything. Sorry for the detail.

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Those large increases are a function of an increases money supply. The graphs would indicate we're ripe for correction, but they don't account for the devaluation of the dollar. I expect you'd see far less of a bubble in both if you converted USD to gold equivalent.

Claude! said:

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Juan Lee Pettimore said:

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Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

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Per the Federal Reserve Act, a board member of the Fed can only be fired by a President for cause, not for policy disputes. Powell refusing to lower interest rates almost certainly wouldn't clear the for cause hurdle.

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They've established cause with a $750 billion overrun on the budget for the new Federal reserve building, which he is responsible for.

If he doesn't lower rates in September, I think there's a good chance they may use it.

4 said:

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Claude! said:

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Juan Lee Pettimore said:

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Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

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Per the Federal Reserve Act, a board member of the Fed can only be fired by a President for cause, not for policy disputes. Powell refusing to lower interest rates almost certainly wouldn't clear the for cause hurdle.

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They've established cause with a $750 billion overrun on the budget for the new Federal reserve building, which he is responsible for.

If he doesn't lower rates in September, I think there's a good chance they may use it.

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I've established that the federal government has overrun their budget by app. $35T.

They're fired.

BREAKING: Fed Member Hammack says she does not see a case for a September rate cut after recent data.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 21, 2025

The problem is we are really seeing stagflation. The economy is not good, but it also isn't terrible (though I would argue it's more on the negative side). The only positives that a rate cut would bring is a small or short lived boost in psyche and lower the gov't interest payments.

DrEvazanPhD said:

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docb said:

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Inflation is already here. Cut the interest rate so the housing market improves.

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Housing market needs a correction as well.

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I agree the prices should come down (and they are) but people do not want to take out a home loan with the current interest rates.

4 said:

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Claude! said:

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Juan Lee Pettimore said:

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Why does this one guy hold so much power over the economy? And if Trump truly feels like he's intentionally sand-bagging him, why doesn't he just fire and replace him?

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Per the Federal Reserve Act, a board member of the Fed can only be fired by a President for cause, not for policy disputes. Powell refusing to lower interest rates almost certainly wouldn't clear the for cause hurdle.

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They've established cause with a $750 billion overrun on the budget for the new Federal reserve building, which he is responsible for.

If he doesn't lower rates in September, I think there's a good chance they may use it.

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Are they plating the entire building in platinum?

TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

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• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

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• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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Uh so? Am I getting that money? Are you?

Then why the Frick should I care? Our government is just spending all that money on dumb crap anyways. Great!

LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

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• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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it would be helpful to see a report of the money paid on US goods by other countries. That contrast would help people understand the theory behind what Trump is trying to do.

TxAG#2011 said:

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LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

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• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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Uh so? Am I getting that money? Are you?

Then why the Frick should I care? Our government is just spending all that money on dumb crap anyways. Great!

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maybe not. Bessent publicly stated they are going to pay down the debt with that money. Will it happen? It needs to....but I understand anyone being suspect that it will actually happen.

LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

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• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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And just who is paying that? Hint: it's not the country where the goods come from.

LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

---

• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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And where is all that increase in tariff money coming from? Hint, look at your pocket book.

The high home prices will stay high because the cost of labor, materials and taxes/permits/regulations aren't getting lowered in any meaningful way moving forward. Biden's inflation was permanent. They only thing you can do to help Americans buy homes is to lower the interest rates. 80% of the country has been sidelines for 5 years and counting. The investor class likes high rates as it limits completion and access from the working and middle class.

They have kicked the ladder off the roof

docb said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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docb said:

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Inflation is already here. Cut the interest rate so the housing market improves.

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Housing market needs a correction as well.

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I agree the prices should come down (and they are) but people do not want to take out a home loan with the current interest rates.

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On the opposite end, a ton of people couldn't save a down-payment high enough after the metoric rise in housing prices. Plenty of people were priced out 3 years ago during the bidding wars. I understand we only care about what's in front of us, but constant rate manipulation has its consequences. There should be a slight correction happening.

Drill & Pump more crude to lower gasoline prices ate the retail pump!!!

I remember RWR doing that in the mid-1980's to break the Russian economy!

Nitro Power said:

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You guys can keep clamoring for rate cuts, but a deep dive into what is really going on in the economy does not warrant rate cuts.

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There is truth here. Terrible, scary truth.

Many companies I have insight into are looking for a .5 cut in in September, or will have layoffs.

VIA Saudi Arabia

It would ramp up inflation. It was wrong to cut rates last year when he did it and it would also be wrong now.

Get inflation to target rates and then see where the economy sits

If 1/4 or 1/2 % makes a house unaffordable for someone then they couldn't afford it in the first place

halfastros81 said:

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It would ramp up inflation. It was wrong to cut rates last year when he did it and it would also be wrong now.

Get inflation to target rates and then see where the economy sits

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Without getting under control, good luck

LMCane said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Maybe Trump shouldn't have tied his economic policy to something out of his control?

He is looking dumber by the day. Still waiting to see what benefits these tarrifs are supposed to bring me.

---

• As of June 2025, customs duties revenue for the fiscal year reached $108 billion, a significant increase from the previous year.
• The total tariff revenues have reached $158.3 billion for the fiscal year as of August 19, 2025.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipates revising this year's tariff revenue estimate above the previous $300 billion projection, expecting a "substantially" higher total.

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It should not be shocking that corporate tax increases will bring additional revenue.

Athanasius said:

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Nitro Power said:

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You guys can keep clamoring for rate cuts, but a deep dive into what is really going on in the economy does not warrant rate cuts.

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There is truth here. Terrible, scary truth.

Many companies I have insight into are looking for a .5 cut in in September, or will have layoffs.

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wouldn't that indicate a warrant for cuts? your statements are a bit counterintuitive.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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The FED will cut rates when bond yields tell them to. Bond yields are not telling them to right now.

If they do for some reason cut rates before bond yields have sold lower, the bond market will revolt and yields will jump, same as last year before the election.

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I'm always keenly interested in your posts, don't always agree, but always find them informative.

I'm of the opinion that ending the practice of paying interest on bank deposits would be the biggest stimulus lever, as banks would have to actually work to make money. As you state, fed funds rate doesn't matter if the 10 yr goes up--mortgages are based on the 10 yr anyway.

They aren't paying down anything. All that does is help with the ever increasing interest payment on the debt we already owe.

The housing market is a mess, inflated by COVID and 2% interest rates. The number of houses on the market has increased, and the average time they remain on the market is 6 months compared to just 6 hours. Pick your poison.

MasonStorm said:

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The high home prices will stay high because the cost of labor, materials and taxes/permits/regulations aren't getting lowered in any meaningful way moving forward. Biden's inflation was permanent. They only thing you can do to help Americans buy homes is to lower the interest rates. 80% of the country has been sidelines for 5 years and counting. The investor class likes high rates as it limits completion and access from the working and middle class.

They have kicked the ladder off the roof

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Lower rates and prices will go up. Unaffordability remains.

Low rates are the drug, not the cure.

80% of the country is looking for a 4/3 starter home on an acre with a 3 car garage. Those times are over. We can wish they weren't. They're over.

Aggie95 said:

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The problem is we are really seeing stagflation. The economy is not good, but it also isn't terrible (though I would argue it's more on the negative side). The only positives that a rate cut would bring is a small or short lived boost in psyche and lower the gov't interest payments.

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This only happens if Powell buys the debt (quantitative easing) or if the bond market agrees that US debt should be priced lower. It has no direct effect on bond rates.

halfastros81 said:

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It would ramp up inflation. It was wrong to cut rates last year when he did it and it would also be wrong now.

Get inflation to target rates and then see where the economy sits

If 1/4 or 1/2 % makes a house unaffordable for someone then they couldn't afford it in the first place

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It is just another sign of a bad economy.

O'Leary's opinion...

Quote:

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The housing market is frozen. Prices are up, inventory is down, and with mortgage rates stuck above 7%, both buyers and sellers are paralyzed. Everyone is praying the Fed will cut rates, but let me be clear: it's NOT happening anytime soon. Powell is not moving until he knows exactly where tariffs land. Right now, CEOs across America have no idea if they are facing a 10% tariff or a 35% tariff, and that kind of uncertainty makes it impossible for the Fed to predict inflation. So the safest move is to sit on their hands and do nothing.

Here's the reality... Unless mortgage rates drop to around 5.5%, housing is not going to turn. At these levels, first-time buyers are going to end up with homes much smaller than they ever imagined, simply to keep payments under control. This isn't doom and gloom, it's the truth. If you're waiting for the Fed to ride in and save the housing market, stop dreaming. Plan for today's rates, not fantasy rates.

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The housing market is frozen. Prices are up, inventory is down, and with mortgage rates stuck above 7%, both buyers and sellers are paralyzed. Everyone is praying the Fed will cut rates, but let me be clear: it's NOT happening anytime soon. Powell is not moving until he knows… pic.twitter.com/d3bCYzDOkA

— Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful (@kevinolearytv) August 20, 2025

Mr. Wonderful loves government intervention. Particularly the many millions he made off bogus employee retention credit filings during Covid. (See WonderTrust)