Fuel cost included?

YESSS!!!!

thanks Will

Wait, but SCOTUS hasn't told big meanie he can't impose these inflationary tariffs yet, and I was told we are entering/in the midst of a deep recession, as labor costs are now going to skyrocket with bad man deporting all the people/children who pick our crops/weed?

How is this possible, right after a record Black Friday weekend of commerce?

bobbranco said:

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This is all Trump's fault.

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nortex97 said:

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Wait, but SCOTUS hasn't told big meanie he can't impose these inflationary tariffs yet, and I was told we are entering/in the midst of a deep recession, as labor costs are now going to skyrocket with bad man deporting all the people/children who pick our crops/weed?

How is this possible, right after a record Black Friday weekend of commerce?

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I was also told on F16 LAST WEEK that the economy has never been worse and more people are unemployed than ever before

meanwhile, in reality- the unemployment rate is one of the lowest it has been over the last 80 years. (although higher than the last few years)

Logos Stick said:

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While good news, the problem is that we've jacked prices up so high during Biden that more "normal" inflation rates on top of that are still painful. If I raise the price of a good from $1 to $1.50, then I increase it from there only 2% each year, it still sucks.

The mean price increase is 27% since 2019.

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Sure, but prices rarely actually…drop. Monetary inflation is a policy choice our ruling class in DC chose long ago, via spending deficits. Existing drops can't be reversed as a result (if measured in USD). Commodities can become cheaper (hint, gas/energy prices dropping as a result of '47 measures have made gas under $2 in places), but overall cost hasn't really adjusted otherwise for actual goods.

I'm no macro-economist but I feel comfortable asserting the above, anyway.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

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Wait, but SCOTUS hasn't told big meanie he can't impose these inflationary tariffs yet, and I was told we are entering/in the midst of a deep recession, as labor costs are now going to skyrocket with bad man deporting all the people/children who pick our crops/weed?

How is this possible, right after a record Black Friday weekend of commerce?

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I was also told on F16 LAST WEEK that the economy has never been worse and more people are unemployed than ever before

meanwhile, in reality- the unemployment rate is one of the lowest it has been over the last 80 years. (although higher than the last few years)

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I'll take higher than normal unemployment if it is juiced by former govt workers. Sorry not sorry.

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Agreed! Good Trump!

I kinda feel that grocery prices may have become a little more affordable but that could just also be because I switched from Kroger to Walmart. So who knows.

Quote:

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The smaller-than-expected increase in the CPI was likely the result of data collection being delayed late into the month, when retailers offered holiday season discounts. Economists expect an acceleration in December.

President Donald Trump's sweeping import duties have raised prices for many goods, though the tariff pass-through has been gradual as businesses worked through inventory accumulated prior to the trade policy tightening and also absorbed some of the taxes. Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, calculated that retailers passed on about 40% of tariffs by September, adding "we expect that proportion to climb gradually to 70% by March and then stabilize."

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-annual-consumer-prices-increase-133856889.html

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Reddit and BlueSky firing up the "the books are cooked and here is why". Looking forward to the dissemination later.

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I'll flat tell you, when I first saw the numbers versus expected, I became a bit skeptical, and still am. It's just too convenient.

As reality of the Christmas season plays out, hopefully the truth is revealed, either way.

MouthBQ98 said:

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As long as we are getting inflation rates remaining low and trending lower and it isn't because of an economic contraction then that is good. I think mostly people are coming to terms with two realities: we (government) can't afford to rain "free" money continuously on most of the population and also the inflation this caused in the recent past is not going away. Higher prices are a permanent reality due to the devalued currency. There is no way to reverse that that isn't extremely economically painful.

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There's the rub.

Quote:

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The smaller-than-expected increase in the CPI was likely the result of data collection being delayed late into the month, when retailers offered holiday season discounts. Economists expect an acceleration in December.

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Ahh, there's the spin.

Quote:

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The smaller-than-expected increase in the CPI was likely the result of data collection being delayed late into the month, when retailers offered holiday season discounts. Economists expect an acceleration in December.

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Most of the professional economists have already weighed in the last few weeks that market participants should just ignore this number. Some of the most volatile CPI inputs were not collected due to the government shutdown and instead just rolled forward from the last report.

There is another one on Jan 17 that should have up to date figures from the BLS. All that being said, we do seemed to have whistled past the tariff-related inflation graveyard a bit. That is either:

a) a good thing because corporate managers were able to adjust and protect margins or

b) a bad thing as it indicates underlying consumer weakness that blunts the ability of corporations to raise prices

The Fed may just thread the needle here, which would be a second time as they somehow pulled the steepest tightening regime in the history of the bank a few years back while not engineering a recession.

Fingers crossed. We have the one time sugar rush of the Big Beautiful Bill that should protect economic growth for now at an obviously astronomical long-term fiscal cost.

This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

ETFan said:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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The smaller-than-expected increase in the CPI was likely the result of data collection being delayed late into the month, when retailers offered holiday season discounts. Economists expect an acceleration in December.

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Most of the professional economists have already weighed in the last few weeks that market participants should just ignore this number. Some of the most volatile CPI inputs were not collected due to the government shutdown and instead just rolled forward from the last report.

There is another one on Jan 17 that should have up to date figures from the BLS. All that being said, we do seemed to have whistled past the tariff-related inflation graveyard a bit. That is either:

a) a good thing because corporate managers were able to adjust and protect margins or

b) a bad thing as it indicates underlying consumer weakness that blunts the ability of corporations to raise prices

The Fed may just thread the needle here, which would be a second time as they somehow pulled the steepest tightening regime in the history of the bank a few years back while not engineering a recession.

Fingers crossed. We have the one time sugar rush of the Big Beautiful Bill that should protect economic growth for now at an obviously astronomical long-term fiscal cost.

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or (C) the obvious reason ... it's called competition and people wanting to retain share. This really isn't hard. You can't manage profitability on units you don't sell.

Logos Stick said:

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ETFan said:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Im asking if this is based only on new data on cars and fuels and old [everything else]. Or what exactly this number is coming from?

I can't attach photos, I'll have to upload when I have a second to show what I'm asking.

Quote:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Lots of items were missing, hence the general yawn from markets. The report was missing about 90% of the data items usually collected. The 11% of new data in the report consisted of postage, wireless prices, used and new car leases and sales, and gas prices.

Everything else was just carried forward from the previous reading in September.

Quote:

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or (C) the obvious reason ... it's called competition and people wanting to retain share. This really isn't hard. You can't manage profitability on units you don't sell.

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Fair point, but corporate profits have been fairly stable so the competitive impact to profits you usually would see did not materialize.

That is because companies are either being gonzo productive or laying people off.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Lots of items were missing, hence the general yawn from markets. The report was missing about 90% of the data items usually collected. The 11% of new data in the report consisted of postage, wireless prices, used and new car leases and sales, and gas prices.

Everything else was just carried forward from the previous reading in September.

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We definitely can use more yawning…

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Lots of items were missing, hence the general yawn from markets. The report was missing about 90% of the data items usually collected. The 11% of new data in the report consisted of postage, wireless prices, used and new car leases and sales, and gas prices.

Everything else was just carried forward from the previous reading in September.

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That is a baseless claim. The BLS hasn't stated what percent is imputed for November. Stop listening to lib idiots on reddit.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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This is based only on fuel and cars data?


Is that true?

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Lots of items were missing, hence the general yawn from markets. The report was missing about 90% of the data items usually collected. The 11% of new data in the report consisted of postage, wireless prices, used and new car leases and sales, and gas prices.

Everything else was just carried forward from the previous reading in September.

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S&P popped up 1.2%.

LOL

now 1.34% and climbing