Someone needs to take the Trump meme about winning and change it to yawning.

His naps during cabinet meeting are obviously lulling the sleepy market to across the board gains.

More yawning please!

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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or (C) the obvious reason ... it's called competition and people wanting to retain share. This really isn't hard. You can't manage profitability on units you don't sell.

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Fair point, but corporate profits have been fairly stable so the competitive impact to profits you usually would see did not materialize.

That is because companies are either being gonzo productive or laying people off.

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Having dealt with Trump tariff's extensively, you'd be surprised how creative you get on finding ways to avoid them impacting final costs, none of which require layoffs. Only people that don't know what they are doing would layoff people when faced with costs shared by the industry.

first positive day for NASDAQ in last 5 trading sessions-

but the market is yawning at good economic data!

LMCane said:

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first positive day for NASDAQ in last 5 trading sessions-

but the market is yawning at good economic data!

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NASDAQ is up 16% in the last 12 months....

Must be some angry libs this morning

Going forward dropping fuel prices should help with inflation. I'd rather see oil in the sweet spot around $70 wti but it should provide some degree of relief as long as oil stays in the 50's.

Quote:

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That is a baseless claim. The BLS hasn't stated what percent is imputed for November. Stop listening to lib idiots on reddit.

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The ignorant goal tending in this forum is always amusing. Why do people respond with such confidence not knowing anything about the subject?

The report is fleshed out in very fine detail including the weightings of the various inputs. Most folks that read the report consistently figured the 90% figure (actually 89%) nearly instantly.

Anna Wong, the Bloomberg Chief Economist, sent out a note this morning stating:

"Most components of the October Report are missing, as BLS only published indexes for items that rely entirely on non-traditional survey methods. The release revealed that very few items fulfill this criteria. postage, wireless telephone service, leased cars and trucks, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and gasoline prices. These items compromise 11% of the CPI Basket."

It is all laid out by the BLS

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm

And that is why the summary table shows a whole lot of dashes indicating missing data.

Quote:

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Having dealt with Trump tariff's extensively, you'd be surprised how creative you get on finding ways to avoid them impacting final costs, none of which require layoffs. Only people that don't know what they are doing would layoff people when faced with costs shared by the industry.

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Another good point. I only say layoffs because of the fairly poor jobs numbers of late.

You are correct, though, that there are tons of other levers to pull. One strategist I worked with told me that the figures show that corporate profit probably should be even higher.

Logos Stick said:

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While good news, the problem is that we've jacked prices up so high during Biden that more "normal" inflation rates on top of that are still painful. If I raise the price of a good from $1 to $1.50, then I increase it from there only 2% each year, it still sucks.

The mean price increase is 27% since 2019.

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No one remembers or realizes that inflation stacks.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Having dealt with Trump tariff's extensively, you'd be surprised how creative you get on finding ways to avoid them impacting final costs, none of which require layoffs. Only people that don't know what they are doing would layoff people when faced with costs shared by the industry.

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Another good point. I only say layoffs because of the fairly poor jobs numbers of late.

You are correct, though, that there are tons of other levers to pull. One strategist I worked with told me that the figures show that corporate profit probably should be even higher.

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Private sector has added 700k jobs YTD. Gov't is down by 270k I think it was...and all the job growth is going to native born Americans instead of illegals like 2023 and 2024. Jobs data is fine.

YouBet said:

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Logos Stick said:

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While good news, the problem is that we've jacked prices up so high during Biden that more "normal" inflation rates on top of that are still painful. If I raise the price of a good from $1 to $1.50, then I increase it from there only 2% each year, it still sucks.

The mean price increase is 27% since 2019.

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No one remembers or realizes that inflation stacks.

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Exactly. They just see high prices right now and blame Trump.

Al Arian is one of the more brilliant analysts who wrote the book on black swan events.

This morning’s favorable US data is led by a CPI print that is significantly cooler than the consensus forecast: 2.7% for headline (vs. 3.1%) and 2.6% for core (vs. 3.0%). This represents the lowest inflation level since early 2021.
Meanwhile, the labor market remains resilient;…

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 18, 2025

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That is not what that the dashes in table mean at all!

The November MoM can't be computed because October data is missing and was not collected! If you don't have October, then you can't do November MoM. Do you know what MoM means?!

However....... the YoY WAS calculated using November 2025 data compared to November of 2024. That's where the 2.7% and 2.6% come in.


Ignorant? You don't know anything about the subject it seems!

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These comments just show me what I already know . . .if Trump told you water wasn't wet you would be on here lamenting on how Libtards are morons for thinking water is actually wet.

But to the obvious hole in your logic, there is no October or November period end of sentence for 89% of the weighting so MOM or YOY for October or November are both equally useless.

I will now await your furrowed brow scurrying back with a new and different ignorant take on this subject.

Logos Stick said:

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YouBet said:

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Logos Stick said:

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While good news, the problem is that we've jacked prices up so high during Biden that more "normal" inflation rates on top of that are still painful. If I raise the price of a good from $1 to $1.50, then I increase it from there only 2% each year, it still sucks.

The mean price increase is 27% since 2019.

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No one remembers or realizes that inflation stacks.

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Exactly. They just see high prices right now and blame Trump.

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but REALITY is that I just paid $2.91 for 89 test fuel two days ago in Maryland.

the first time under $3 in YEARS.

I was paying nearly $5 per gallon for the same 89 test two years ago under Biden!

that is a saving of $24 every time I fill up my gas tank!

so if these reports are meaningless as you insist- how do you explain the following data after a major drop in the NASDAQ the past week?

DJIA
Uptrend
+448.94
+0.94%

S&P 500
6,815.49
Uptrend
+94.06
+1.40%


NASDAQ
23,145.399
Uptrend
+452.076
+1.99%

RUSS 2K*
2,523.285
Uptrend
+30.99

I believe these numbers under Trump as much as I believed them under Biden. In other words, I'm sure there are many hard working Winston Smiths generating these figures.

I mean who are we to believe?

A left wing Harvard professor on CNN saying the reports are good news impossible to deny?

or a guy on an Aggie message board?

tough call:

"I was surprised. It was a better number than anyone was expecting," says Harvard Professor of Economics Ken Rogoff on November inflation coming in WAY BELOW expectations.

"It was positive news — there's no other way to spin it." pic.twitter.com/ZtAIBek5z3

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) December 18, 2025

LMCane said:

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so if these reports are meaningless as you insist- how do you explain the following data after a major drop in the NASDAQ the past week?

DJIA
Uptrend
+448.94
+0.94%

S&P 500
6,815.49
Uptrend
+94.06
+1.40%


NASDAQ
23,145.399
Uptrend
+452.076
+1.99%

RUSS 2K*
2,523.285
Uptrend
+30.99

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Yawning.

Same type of economist that told us the definition of a recession had not changed, despite it changing?

MouthBQ98 said:

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As long as we are getting inflation rates remaining low and trending lower and it isn't because of an economic contraction then that is good. I think mostly people are coming to terms with two realities: we (government) can't afford to rain "free" money continuously on most of the population and also the inflation this caused in the recent past is not going away. Higher prices are a permanent reality due to the devalued currency. There is no way to reverse that that isn't extremely economically painful.

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So you think people are cutting back, expecting things to go south? I know we are.
More of a wait-and-see, but undoubtedly cutting back expenses and spending.

One headline said that the government shutdown was one reason for the lower inflation rate. Well, if that's really the reason…

deddog said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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As long as we are getting inflation rates remaining low and trending lower and it isn't because of an economic contraction then that is good. I think mostly people are coming to terms with two realities: we (government) can't afford to rain "free" money continuously on most of the population and also the inflation this caused in the recent past is not going away. Higher prices are a permanent reality due to the devalued currency. There is no way to reverse that that isn't extremely economically painful.

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So you think people are cutting back, expecting things to go south? I know we are.
More of a wait-and-see, but undoubtedly cutting back expenses and spending.

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If anything currently ongoing is causing you to cut back, you were in almost all certainty spending too much. Consumer behavior belies the MSM talking points (drafted by chief lib economist Chuck Schumer) about how the sky is falling under Trump.

Quote:

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Black Friday 2025 saw record-breaking online spending, with U.S. shoppers spending $11.8 billion, a 9.1% increase from 2024, driven by electronics, toys, and apparel deals, while mobile commerce dominated, and AI significantly boosted traffic; overall U.S. retail sales grew 4.1%, blending strong e-commerce with modest in-store gains despite economic concerns, showing consumers leveraging sales for essential and non-essential buys.

U.S. Black Friday Sales Highlights (2025)

• Total Online Spending: $11.8 billion (up 9.1% from 2024).
• Total Retail Sales: Increased 4.1% across all channels.
• Top Categories: Electronics, toys, home appliances, luxury/active apparel.
• Tech Impact: AI drove massive traffic (1805% increase in AI referrals), with mobile accounting for over half of online sales.
• In-Store vs. Online: E-commerce grew faster (10.4%) than in-store sales (1.7%), but brick-and-mortar still saw growth (4%).

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Reddit and BlueSky firing up the "the books are cooked and here is why". Looking forward to the dissemination later.

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Yeah, they will not admit how horrible a president Biden, I mean Obama was.

Also, crediting Trump with anything positive is just beyond their capabilities

CDUB98 said:

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Before the announcement, the Bloomberg guests were all still talking tariff inflation, saying the tariff impact hasn't been felt even though we are a couple of quarters into this now. They were expecting grim reports.

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Yesterday after the speech the leftists "news" pundits at ABC spent 30m continuously bashing the speech for being out of touch with the high cpi that people are experiencing at the super market... and how energy costs are going to jump 10% next week blah blah blah...

When Biden was in office the exact same idiots were saying "the inflation and economy isn't actually bad, its just transitory"

I cant believe there are morons that still buy into their crap. Straight out of 1984.

Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.

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Post more often. I can just go ahead assume everything 180deg polar opposite of what you post approximates truth

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.

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Thats some nice cognitive dissonance you got there.

Focusing entirely on the term you used, what do you mean this is cognitive dissonance? I always thought cognitive dissonance is something like not wanting to drink, but still drinking…and feeling stress from the difference between the two.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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That is a baseless claim. The BLS hasn't stated what percent is imputed for November. Stop listening to lib idiots on reddit.

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The ignorant goal tending in this forum is always amusing. Why do people respond with such confidence not knowing anything about the subject?

The report is fleshed out in very fine detail including the weightings of the various inputs. Most folks that read the report consistently figured the 90% figure (actually 89%) nearly instantly.

Anna Wong, the Bloomberg Chief Economist, sent out a note this morning stating:

"Most components of the October Report are missing, as BLS only published indexes for items that rely entirely on non-traditional survey methods. The release revealed that very few items fulfill this criteria. postage, wireless telephone service, leased cars and trucks, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and gasoline prices. These items compromise 11% of the CPI Basket."

It is all laid out by the BLS

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm

And that is why the summary table shows a whole lot of dashes indicating missing data.

---

Anna Wong literally posted a day ago on X that inflation is rolling over.

Our own million prices cpi tracker see many goods inflation rolling over in November.

Our CPI preview on @TheTerminal right now.https://t.co/wUvk9s7cva pic.twitter.com/S9kB3CWx8y

— Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) December 17, 2025

Quote:

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I cant believe there are morons that still buy into their crap

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Communist lie about everything, all of the time.

It's not belief. It's purposeful propaganda.

shiftyandquick said:

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Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.

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Occam's Razor: The reality is that Trump fired her because he probably didn't fully understand how ubiquitous data revisions are with BLS data. Some of these stats are based on initial, voluntary surveys from businesses with response rates that have declined over the years. Then when a more complete data set comes in you start seeing revisions to the data. It's a very misleading process that does no one any favors and should be overhauled.

Are you aware of this reality or is this another one that you will simply ignore and continue your TDS crusade as a "Reagan Republican" fighting for true, conservative ideals?

Quote:

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Anna Wong literally posted a day ago on X that inflation is rolling over.

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Yes, based on third party signals rather than the CPI report just released. She tracks a lot of regional Fed indicators that track outside the BLS calculation. Austan Goolsbee's Adobe Digital Price Index is one she pointed to show how inflation is likely muted despite the somewhat useless nature of this CPI report.

Richmond Fed had a good primer yesterday on how to get around the missing datapoints.

https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2025/phantom_figures_missing_data_in_october

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Anna Wong literally posted a day ago on X that inflation is rolling over.

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Yes, based on third party signals rather than the CPI report just released. She tracks a lot of regional Fed indicators that track outside the BLS calculation. Austan Goolsbee's Adobe Digital Price Index is one she pointed to show how inflation is likely muted despite the somewhat useless nature of this CPI report.

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"Rolling over" means going down!! Her numbers are based on the data Bloomberg collects.

There is nothing useless about the current CPI report. The November data is there. The YoY numbers went down!

That's a FACT!