Windy City Ag said:Quote:
eport.
Richmond Fed had a good primer yesterday on how to get around the missing datapoints.
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/macro_minute/2025/phantom_figures_missing_data_in_october
Quote:
"Rolling over" means going down!! Her numbers are based on the data Bloomberg collects.
Quote:
After long-awaited government data showed underlying US inflation cooled to a four-year low in November, economists agreed on at least this much: something was off.
In a report fouled by the record-long government shutdown, inflation in several categories that had long been stubborn seemed to nearly evaporate. Chief among those were shelter costs, which make up about a third of the consumer price index, but other categories like airfares and apparel notably declined.
Several forecasters pointed to the absence of that October data which resulted in pages of blank spaces in the widely watched report as effectively the same as assuming no price growth for the month. That culminated in sizable downward pressure on the November inflation figures, they said. Some noted the shortened collection period could have also skewed the data.
The titles of their analyses were telling: "Lost in Translation," according to TD Securities. "Delayed and Patchy," per William Blair, and a "Swiss Cheese CPI report" from EY-Parthenon.
This one-of-a-kind report produced anomaly after anomaly, almost all pointing in the same direction," Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, said in a note. "I think it would be unwise to dismiss the results entirely, but I also believe it would be rash to take them at face value."
Housing Components
The biggest inconsistencies compared with more recent trends were in key housing categories, which have been a main driver of inflation in recent years. Some economists pointed out that a shockingly small 0.06% increase in primary rents on average over the two months, and a 0.14% average rise in owners' equivalent rent, would only be possible if BLS essentially kept the October index values the same as a month earlier. That would represent no increase from September.
"There is no world in which releasing this report this was a good idea, but here we are," said Omair Sharif, president of Inflation Insights LLC.
Despite the idiosyncrasies, several economists maintained that inflation is cooling, just perhaps not as much as Thursday's report would suggest.
"Through the noise, we believe inflation is slowing on trend, even if today's reading overstates the magnitude of the slowdown," Wells Fargo & Co. economists said in a note.
The title of their analysis was more direct: "Take It with the Entire Salt Shaker."
Quote:
The biggest inconsistencies compared with more recent trends were in key housing categories, which have been a main driver of inflation in recent years. Some economists pointed out that a shockingly small 0.06% increase in primary rents on average over the two months, and a 0.14% average rise in owners' equivalent rent, would only be possible if BLS essentially kept the October index values the same as a month earlier. That would represent no increase from September.
Windy City Ag said:
Agreed . . . the whole discussion is how you back into that conclusion. There are plenty of non-BLS related datapoints to reach the conclusion.
shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
Queso1 said:
Didn't he fire a BLS commissioner in August? It was discussed here.
MouthBQ98 said:
As long as we are getting inflation rates remaining low and trending lower and it isn't because of an economic contraction then that is good. I think mostly people are coming to terms with two realities: we (government) can't afford to rain "free" money continuously on most of the population and also the inflation this caused in the recent past is not going away. Higher prices are a permanent reality due to the devalued currency. There is no way to reverse that that isn't extremely economically painful.
Windy City Ag said:Quote:
That is a baseless claim. The BLS hasn't stated what percent is imputed for November. Stop listening to lib idiots on reddit.
The ignorant goal tending in this forum is always amusing. Why do people respond with such confidence not knowing anything about the subject?
The report is fleshed out in very fine detail including the weightings of the various inputs. Most folks that read the report consistently figured the 90% figure (actually 89%) nearly instantly.
Anna Wong, the Bloomberg Chief Economist, sent out a note this morning stating:
"Most components of the October Report are missing, as BLS only published indexes for items that rely entirely on non-traditional survey methods. The release revealed that very few items fulfill this criteria. postage, wireless telephone service, leased cars and trucks, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and gasoline prices. These items compromise 11% of the CPI Basket."
It is all laid out by the BLS
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm
And that is why the summary table shows a whole lot of dashes indicating missing data.
Queso1 said:
Didn't he fire a BLS commissioner in August? It was discussed here.
BigRobSA said:
I don't believe govt data, not even when "my side" is telling it to me, I believe my eyes when I'm shopping.
Some things are still shooting up, others aren't. That's what "the common man" cares about. Just got back from HEB, **** is still more expensive due to Trump(45) doing dumbass things and Biden's autopen turning it to Texa$. THAT is the important thing.
shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
BigRobSA said:
I don't believe govt data, not even when "my side" is telling it to me, I believe my eyes when I'm shopping.
Some things are still shooting up, others aren't. That's what "the common man" cares about. Just got back from HEB, **** is still more expensive due to Trump(45) doing dumbass things and Biden's autopen turning it to Texa$. THAT is the important thing.
deddog said:shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
Wait..You believed the Biden numbers
MohamedMahmoud said:deddog said:shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
Wait..You believed the Biden numbers
Who was President 1 year ago?
What numbers are being used to calculate a Year over Year percentage change?
If you don't believe the "Biden numbers" why do you believe these numbers, which includes the "Biden numbers"?
MohamedMahmoud said:deddog said:shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
Wait..You believed the Biden numbers
Who was President 1 year ago?
What numbers are being used to calculate a Year over Year percentage change?
If you don't believe the "Biden numbers" why do you believe these numbers, which includes the "Biden numbers"?
MohamedMahmoud said:
Who was President 1 year ago?
A. G. Pennypacker said:BigRobSA said:
I don't believe govt data, not even when "my side" is telling it to me, I believe my eyes when I'm shopping.
Some things are still shooting up, others aren't. That's what "the common man" cares about. Just got back from HEB, **** is still more expensive due to Trump(45) doing dumbass things and Biden's autopen turning it to Texa$. THAT is the important thing.
I've been tracking the wife and I's monthly grocery and restaurant expenditures now for about 3 years. It's not scientific, I don't keep track of prices on specific items, but we also haven't made any concerted efforts to change our habits or save money in this area and I can tell you that the 12 month rolling average over 3 years has been flat. You could even say that maybe it's trended down a tiny bit.
If I could go back and look at pre-covid maybe it's gone up since then (likely has), but I don't have that data.
LMCane said:BigRobSA said:
I don't believe govt data, not even when "my side" is telling it to me, I believe my eyes when I'm shopping.
Some things are still shooting up, others aren't. That's what "the common man" cares about. Just got back from HEB, **** is still more expensive due to Trump(45) doing dumbass things and Biden's autopen turning it to Texa$. THAT is the important thing.
come on man-
you are great but no one can believe the prices at HEB are because of something Trump did FIVE OR SIX YEARS AGO!
deddog said:MohamedMahmoud said:deddog said:shiftyandquick said:
Trump fires people who don't cook the books. We already know that. He's been open about it. Can't trust a single word from his mouth.
Wait..You believed the Biden numbers
Who was President 1 year ago?
What numbers are being used to calculate a Year over Year percentage change?
If you don't believe the "Biden numbers" why do you believe these numbers, which includes the "Biden numbers"?
I haven't believed the BLS since they cooked up numbers for Obama
Also, learn to read.
BigRobSA said:MohamedMahmoud said:
Who was President 1 year ago?
Autopen
Although, that's an actual question....."Who was....?".
