HumpitPuryear said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
HumpitPuryear said:
CrackerJackAg said:
MemphisAg1 said:
It's just more bad Trump. Very dumb.
He's leaving in May and Trump can announce his replacement any day.
I don't agree with pushing rates lower with GDP ~3%, inflation ~3%, and unemployment ~4.5% and interest rates at historical norms. Doesn't make sense.
That said, he sees it differently and can put his own guy in shortly. This runs a real risk of the bond market demanding HIGHER rates for the 10 year note and beyond, which will just keep mortgage rates at current levels or higher.
You're going to criminally indict the Fed Chair five months before his term ends? On questionable grounds?
Just so dumb... no need for it.
I see this through the lenses of debt repayment and the ability to a a budget and still spend large mounts of money.
The governments entire budget would be gone instantly with 10% interest. Entire budget would be debt repayment. 3% is 1/3 the debt payment.
This is Trumps primary goal. Get short term interest rates low so the debt can be refinanced as cheaply as possible. It's really the only thing that will keep the government out of default. I don't think Trump's team cares much about inflation. It actually works in favor of the government.
But the FRB renovation is outrageous even by DC standards and it's incredibly difficult to explain and justify where the money went. DOJ is right to go have a look. Powell could be committing fraud and also be under attack from Trump for policy. Both can be true.
I don't think that project is that outrageous after a quick look at their budget and scope. It's a renovation and expansion from 400k sf to 1.1 million sf for $2.5 billion. Trump tore down the East Wing and is building his 90k sf ballroom for $300-$400 million. All things considered, they're roughly the same ballpark, and the FRB renovation is probably on the cheaper side comparatively.
1) We aren't paying for the ballroom
2) the vast majority of the expansion to the federal reserve is a parking garage.
Another datapoint - the budget for the new currency facility in MD which was DOGEd was $1B. This was a new from the ground up very large building with some very very specialized equipment and systems.
And another - Ford's new 2.1 million sqft HQ campus is estimated at $1.2B.
$2.5B is completely outrageous especially considering that this is on top of the money spent to renovate the Martin building. I'm all for historic preservation but that project is just stupid.
1. No **** Sherlock. It's a cost comparison in a similar market. Who is paying is irrelevant to how much they're paying. How hard is that to understand?
2. The fact you try to make cost comparisons to completely different construction types and project types in vastly different markets shows you have clue what your talking about.
2.a. You're trying to compare what is effectively a green site, new construction manufacturing building to an urban, historic renovation/new construction project. The fact they're in roughly the same geographic region is all they have in common. Historic renovations involve expensive preservation work. There is a lot of documentation to match what is being preserved, and a lot of work in duplicating it where it has to be replaced. Beyond that, asbestos is everywhere and must be abated. I've seen elementary schools from the 40's and 50's undergo renovations where it was in the flooring, the walls, the roofing, the insulation, the fireproofing, and just about everywhere else you could imagine, and all of it had to be abated. That process is incredibly expensive on a $/sqft basis. Being in an urban area, site logistics are going to be much tighter and more complex than building in an open field. Delivery schedules and laydown areas must be closely managed
Comparatively, green field new construction is the cheapest, last complicated project you could do. The avenues for complications are absolutely minimal. On top of that, the BEP building is essentially just a big box. There will undoubtedly be fancier office spaces in part of it, but the bulk is going to be a box for printing and engraving areas, warehousing, shipping, etc.
2.b. Ford's campus is an even worse comparison. It's not only a completely different kind of job, it's not even in the same region and public vs private. Again, historical preservation and renovation job versus ground up new construction. New construction is much easier with fewer complications and unknowns. However, the regional costs are wildly different. COL is about 35% higher in DC than Detroit. Being public versus private is also a big deal. Federal jobs are not something you just do like an office building. There are a lot of rules around plan and document handling, inspections and construction documentation, billing, certified payroll, etc that can make it incredibly complex. (I have worked with USACE on a federal job, and it is not an experience I would like to repeat.) All of that is priced in. Private owners and their reps can do whatever they want in terms of contractual requirements and acceptance.
2.c. The ballroom is a project on federal property and subject to many of the same additional costs, and it's a partial renovation and new construction job since there is stuff beneath it that will have to be worked around and with. It is less intensive than historical preservation because they're tearing down much of the above ground structure, but the bunker underneath and infrastructure are staying, AFAICT. Being down the street, it is going to be 1:1 with local labor, material, and transportation costs. If you want to ballpark current costs to compare, it's about the best you're going to do.
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