World's top physicists say AI has won and to prepare for what comes after

21,601 Views | 290 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Rocky Rider
TexasRebel
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AG
Deputy Travis Junior said:

It doesn't matter if it's intelligent in the way we define and measure intelligence, the things that matter - and what was raised in the OP - are can it 1) exceed human performance on lots of white collar work and 2) reduce the amount of labor required? The answer to both is a resounding yes. Yet you're trying to argue "no" while citing 2 year old info and demonstrating no awareness of the major players in the space that are already doing the things that you say AI can't do.




So it's a different kind of intelligent, now?

That's a joke, right?
hph6203
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They're not remote drivers. They don't have a steering wheel and pedals. The complexity of the inputs they can provide are lower than a driver in the seat could provide and to the best of my knowledge they don't actually intervene while the vehicle is in motion (could be mistaken on that), but rather it's instances where the car is stopped and is failing to negotiate its next move.

The car essentially prompts the remote monitor "what is my path?" And the remote operator gives it an instruction. An example scenario would be attempting to turn left at an unprotected left with high traffic, never receiving an opportunity to turn, and requesting a confirmation that it should reroute (I.e. turn right, and then a left, left, right) to proceed.

Again, 90% reduction in injury causing accidents. I have my criticisms of Waymo, because I do think they're going to struggle to remove/reduce those remote requests more than Tesla ultimately will, and I think their additional sensors are going to end up being unnecessary in the long run, but they do have a safer than human driving system (even if not totally devoid of human interaction) on the road. The rate of growth of autonomous vehicles is going to be greater than the rate of growth of remote monitors and in the long run the number of humans per cars will trend toward rounding down to zero. Current estimates are 10 cars per 1 remote monitor. Down from 1:1 when they initially removed the driver ~5 years ago.
TexasRebel
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So, car that can't drive itself.
Deputy Travis Junior
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Your boss doesn't care one iota if you are capable of reading and pondering the works of Plato. He/she cares whether you can perform the tasks given to you. That's it. That's the only measure of "intelligence" used for nearly all white collar labor. The extra requirements that you're appending to the definition of intelligent are worthless with respect to knowledge work.

If an AI that's incapable of pondering the meaning of life or thinking about what it wants to do next is still able to meet that standard, your boss will still find it smart enough.
TexasRebel
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That seems like a boring life.

I'm also aware that if I find a way to improve the process of completing the tasks given to me, I get things like raises, bonuses, and promotion.

I'm also ambitious enough to want to be the one giving myself tasks to complete.

When does "AI" get competitive in closed-space games without defined moves? (Darts, pool, bocce, curling, etc.)
Deputy Travis Junior
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TexasRebel said:

That seems like a boring life.

I'm also aware that if I find a way to improve the process of completing the tasks given to me, I get things like raises, bonuses, and promotion.

I'm also ambitious enough to want to be the one giving myself tasks to complete.


None of this impacts the "is AI going to evaporate a lot of white collar jobs?" question one bit. As I said before, I can't even tell what point you're making or what you're arguing.
Deputy Travis Junior
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As far as I can tell you're trying to make some distinction between human intelligence and what AI models do. Okay, fine, it's not the same. We all agree.

But your extrapolation - that therefore AI can't do tasks like writing or debugging code - is a total non sequitur. The fact that there isn't a real virtual brain in there but just a highly sophisticated pattern recognition system does not matter. Turns out those extra things we can do don't have much to do with job performance on most knowledge work tasks. A highly sophisticated pattern recognition system works just fine.
whytho987654
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reineraggie09 said:

GeorgiAg said:

TexasRebel said:

GeorgiAg said:

Tex117 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Tex117 said:

AozorAg said:

I've tried using the most expensive AI tools available in my law practice, and I would still be committing malpractice if I didn't redo most of it myself. Whatever everybody is seeing in the hard sciences, it's not showing up in the legal world. Also I expect we're going to get some state legislation prohibiting AI practice of law in various forms in the near future. I think my job is safe for another decade or so at least.

Yeah, its not quite capable of high level legal work yet. But, is it as good as a 1-3 year actually good associate? Yes.

Is it a good editor in terms of writing your thoughts down and needing it streamlined? Absolutely.



Agree completely.

I have gone from review docs/fact -> traditional research -> drafting/writing -> review/final edits

to

Get facts/docs -> put into AI -.> verify/edit.

It speeds everything up.

What it has done with document review is incredible. There is no question the legal field is going to change significantly. But man....as a law student right now...I would be VERY concerned about getting a job.



What still blows my mind is I can now upload Xrays, etc... and it can read it.


No it can't.

It can only regurgitate what data says about similar x-rays.

The only fields that are in trouble are archaeology and paleontology.

Radiology is trained pattern recognition based upon prior examples. Humans learn from looking at prior films too. A computer will do this 1000X faster than a human. AI will complement radiologists, not replace them. You still have to check it.

Same thing we mentioned above with law and speeding up or complementing tasks.

For me, if someone comes in with a medmal file, I can upload the images to AI and get a $0 initial opinion. If it checks out, then I will spend the money for a radiologist review.


Human radiologists took a big hit with the "gorilla" study a few years ago. Researchers hid a gorilla image in lung radiographs and didn't tell the radiologists it was there. Radiologists were told they were doing metastatic checks on lung films. Something like 90% of radiologists missed the gorilla.

Agree that AI can take over radiology. I can't wait until it comes to vet med.

A study that was done 13 years ago with 24 radiologists, most who saw it didnt mention it as they believed it was a logo stamp. Since then, radiologist pay has become the highest in medicine as well as the highest demand. Imaging utilization increases yearly, as does dependence on radiologists
LMCane
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TexasRebel said:

That seems like a boring life.

I'm also aware that if I find a way to improve the process of completing the tasks given to me, I get things like raises, bonuses, and promotion.

I'm also ambitious enough to want to be the one giving myself tasks to complete.

When does "AI" get competitive in closed-space games without defined moves? (Darts, pool, bocce, curling, etc.)


Uh, you don't think that Claude and Google Gemini improve the process of completing tasks?!?!

I am literally using Gemini right now to help with improving citations in a bibliography.
TexasRebel
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AG
Are you blindly copy/pasting them in?

Or are you using rapid database recollection and pattern recognition to make your intelligence more efficient?
TexasRebel
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Are you AI?
reineraggie09
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I don't know about human med, but in vet med they couldn't get people to fill radiology residencies. Lots of open positions which caused pay to increase. Didn't increase because number of images went up. Increased because number of radiologists went down.

The point being, of the medical professions, radiology and pathology are the easiest for AI to take over.
whytho987654
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reineraggie09 said:

I don't know about human med, but in vet med they couldn't get people to fill radiology residencies. Lots of open positions which caused pay to increase. Didn't increase because number of images went up. Increased because number of radiologists went down.

The point being, of the medical professions, radiology and pathology are the easiest for AI to take over.

In the human world, where the money is, radiology is one of the most competitive fields. Its highly litigious and acute, most of the clinical fields have been reduced to algorithms which an NP or PA can do, such as internal med, peds, family med, cardiology, gastro, pulm, any IM subspecialty really, and clinic of surgical fields. Image utliziation increases 10-20% yearly and all of the rads residencies fill (and spots are kept the same, this year 2000 applicants are applying for 1100 spots). Also, the field is much more monetizable and procedural than many here understand (expert witness rates are often 1k+ per hour, can do a gamut of elective procedures)
mjschiller
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AG
Is AI the development of satan or Heavenly Father/God?
TexasRebel
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mjschiller said:

Is AI the development of satan or Heavenly Father/God?

It depends on how it's used.

Used one way, it can allow a person to skip the mundane, mindless, repetitive tasks that waste their time doing what they're on this rock to do.

Used another way, it can promote sloth.

A tool cannot be good or evil. Only the user.
TexasRebel
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"AI" wrote this... It'll be, obvious, to, a human.

https://www.the-independent.com/sport/winter-olympics/curling-winter-olympics-powerplay-what-rules-b2915863.html
Spergin
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infinity ag said:

Spergin said:

TexasRebel said:

Logos Stick said:

Give this a listen, then mock it, dismiss it and hope.




All I know is AI is really bad at writing robust code.

AI also isn't much use offline.


Considering the fact that every tech company is now heavily using it for code, this is clearly and obviously false and out of date.


They aren't. Don't be fooled by press releases


Yes they are, I have numerous friends in that world, they are absolutely using it for the majority of the work now. Those who aren't are getting left behind. This is why Microsoft made a deal with Anthropic to solely use Claude Code.
Spergin
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infinity ag said:

TexasRebel said:

Spergin said:

TexasRebel said:

Logos Stick said:

Give this a listen, then mock it, dismiss it and hope.




All I know is AI is really bad at writing robust code.

AI also isn't much use offline.


Considering the fact that every tech company is now heavily using it for code, this is clearly and obviously false and out of date.


Have you seen how bad websites have gotten lately?

The companies relying on AI are doing terribly.
I'm not saying it can't lay a framework quicker than I can, but squishing bugs? Nope. Not a chance.


microsoft claims 50% code written by AI but hiring 10000 engineers in India ha ha

Lots of 60+ suckers to sell snake oil to.


This is happening because Microsoft's executives are Indian and not for any other reason.
Spergin
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TexasRebel said:

Which computers can actually drive cars?
Last I saw they're still killing people and misidentifying objects.

Human intelligence is more than pattern recognition. It's asking why a pattern happens. Plenty of humans don't do that.

I was actually shocked to learn, some time ago, that some humans have no inner monologue. Can you imagine?


My friend has an AI driving module for his car that uses nothing more than an android phone on his dashboard. It works perfectly, I've tested it.

Your information is way out of date.
TexasRebel
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"Perfectly" is a bold claim with a sample size of one.

How does it do out of cellular range?
Deputy Travis Junior
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I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.
Law-Apt_3G
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All recursive learning ai has failed so far, becoming out of control, dangerous, and worthless.

Spergin
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TexasRebel said:

"Perfectly" is a bold claim with a sample size of one.

How does it do out of cellular range?


Internet connection is not needed. It uses visual cues. I've seen it work in deep east Texas with no cell connection.
Spergin
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


These guys are basing their feelings on how it was 2 years ago. They have no idea the improvement curve has gone vertical.
Buford T. Justice
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AG
Can't we just unplug it?
TexasRebel
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


Please tell me which roads you travel so I can avoid them.
Logos Stick
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


You're wasting your time with that poster.
hph6203
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TexasRebel said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


Please tell me which roads you travel so I can avoid them.
You'd be doing him the favor. FSD accident rate is roughly 1/7th the average U.S. driver. If it weren't for non-FSD drivers it would likely be even better.
TexasRebel
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I don't like being an uncompensated, involuntary beta tester.
hph6203
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Good news! It's not Full Self Driving (Beta) anymore. It's Full Self Driving (Supervised).
TexasRebel
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So not self driving.
Deputy Travis Junior
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TexasRebel said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


Please tell me which roads you travel so I can avoid them.


For your sake I hope this is an elaborate troll job. But if it isn't, you don't have to worry about sharing a road with me. You're gonna have to sell your car in 6-12 months after you're laid off from your programming job because you refused to adjust to changes that everyone sees coming.
samurai_science
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TexasRebel said:

So not self driving.

Robot taxes (driverless) are all over the roads, at least in the cities. They do pretty well from what I have seen.
TexasRebel
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AG
More broken code to fix.
Spergin
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Deputy Travis Junior said:

TexasRebel said:

Deputy Travis Junior said:

I've got a model 3 with the latest self driving software and offline driving is fine. It doesn't pull real time traffic details (obviously) but the self driving works normally.

You need to read up on AI developments. You don't know what you're talking about with any of these claims.


Please tell me which roads you travel so I can avoid them.


For your sake I hope this is an elaborate troll job. But if it isn't, you don't have to worry about sharing a road with me. You're gonna have to sell your car in 6-12 months after you're laid off from your programming job because you refused to adjust to changes that everyone sees coming.


It's trivial for non-programmers who are smart to build virtually anything now. I vibe coded a website today just to see what I could build. It's honestly incredible how good it is. It double checks work and runs tests and it gives instructions for anything you need. I know nothing about programming but I'm a decently smart guy so I was able to get it working.
 
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