sam callahan said:

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This is the part I don't think the general public understands. The oil/gas industry is built to continually run. You can't just turn sites on and off - you need them to keep running. "Turning them off" is a shut-in, which causes damage to the system and will take plenty of time and money to fix.

Iran is getting dangerously close to this

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I also wouldn't put it past them to pump it out on the ground and set it a blaze

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Lol probably correct

sts7049 said:

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AlaskanAg99 said:

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Let them have the Strait. Dump that problem on Europe and ME regional nations.

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no way. it's a global necessity to have free and open passage there

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Not to mention the precedent that would set.

Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

IRAN PREPARING REVISED PEACE PLAN AMID U.S. REJECTION

Sources say Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal within days after the United States rejected its initial terms.

🔸Mediators in Pakistan expect an updated Iranian offer soon
🔸The U.S. reportedly opposed the…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 28, 2026

Quote:

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IRAN PREPARING REVISED PEACE PLAN AMID U.S. REJECTION

Sources say Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal within days after the United States rejected its initial terms.

Mediators in Pakistan expect an updated Iranian offer soon
The U.S. reportedly opposed the earlier plan, delaying nuclear talks
Iran's foreign minister is consulting leadership in Tehran after a visit to Russia
Communication with Iran's top leadership is described as difficult and slow
The process remains fluid and depends on Iran's revised terms

Separately, Donald Trump claimed Iran is in a "state of collapse" and seeking help to keep the Strait of Hormuz open amid internal instability.

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Dirt 05 said:

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Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

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Last time a foreign terror cell was activated and carried out an attack, the US invaded the country they were based out of and got rid of the government.

Iran's victory state is one where the current government continues being in power. Attacking America directly is probably the one way they will not win in the long-term. So yes, they probably don't have terror cells over here to attack us in the traditional sense. It's not cause they can't, it's cause it's be stupid to.

The cash and gold is headed out

IRAN RESUMES MOSCOW FLIGHTS AFTER 2-MONTH HALT DUE TO WAR: IRNA

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 28, 2026

Dirt 05 said:

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Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

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I have seen multiple articles that say the exact opposite about the rail lines connecting Iran and China. Even the newest line completed in 2025 can't handle bulk oil transport. That doesn't seem like an option at all for China or for Iran to make enough money to avoid collapsing.

I don't think Trump will cave, but we cannot open the straight and let them off the hook.

pic.twitter.com/CBsXhdijWG

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 28, 2026

The perfect time to require nuclear materials to be turned over.

Dirt 05 said:

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Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

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We told them to stand down while we worked. Did we ever change the message?

Dirt 05 said:

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Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

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if what you stated above is even REMOTELY correct-

why is the Islamic Republic LITERALLY taking 30 year old mothballed oil tankers out of storage to then drag them across the Arabian Sea to be filled with oil?

And if such a rail line does exist - no idea if it does or not - it seems we could take care of that problem with a well placed bomb.

Update: We have now identified ten NITC tankers at the OPL (Off-Port Limit) off Chabahar, Iran, in today’s satellite imagery.

This confirms that the US Navy blockade is successfully redirecting crude oil shipments that have departed Iran. Two tankers have also been removed from…

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 28, 2026

They don't have sufficient engines or cars to transport in bulk. There is a reason sea is far more effecient. Additionally there are multiple guage changes and some other issues which prevent this from handling the volume needed. Rail is relatively easy to repair from battle damage, the Russians in particular are very good at that, but tunnels, bridges, switching equipment and rail yards are different and harder to replace. I wouldn't be surprised to see some missions on these rail lines also target rail engines which then need to be cleared, replaced etc. A train full of oil is a very, very nasty thing to clean up after an air strike.

aezmvp said:

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They don't have sufficient engines or cars to transport in bulk. There is a reason sea is far more effecient. Additionally there are multiple guage changes and some other issues which prevent this from handling the volume needed. Rail is relatively easy to repair from battle damage, the Russians in particular are very good at that, but tunnels, bridges, switching equipment and rail yards are different and harder to replace. I wouldn't be surprised to see some missions on these rail lines also target rail engines which then need to be cleared, replaced etc. A train full of oil is a very, very nasty thing to clean up after an air strike.

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If they had them, the loading and unloading terminals would be hit and that would be that. No reason to chase down engines or anything else. I still vote for dropping all of the bridges that connect Tehran with the outside world though and especially every bridge that connects to Iraq.

Earlier today in the Arabian Sea, U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/V Blue Star III, a commercial ship suspected of attempting to transit to Iran in violation of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. forces released the vessel after conducting a… pic.twitter.com/UFx329OsHj

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 28, 2026

🤔 Mojtaba Khamenei Dead?

A Mashhad video unveiling a memorial for individuals described as killed within Iran’s ruling establishment sparked speculation over Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei.

Images and names appear in the footage with some claim Mojtaba Khamenei is… https://t.co/HJbY3p22Sh

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 28, 2026

Theoretically they can just pump the oil out into the desert to pool up in depressions on the ground. It would be possibly a giant mess and ecological disaster and big fire hazard but would preserve the well condition.

Cinco Ranch Aggie said:

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And if such a rail line does exist - no idea if it does or not - it seems we could take care of that problem with a well placed bomb.

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The rail link to China is...tenuous at best. Sounds more like the bridge over the river kwai than a significant transport channel. Not a great source, sorry, but one gets the idea here:

Note that the Xi’an–Aprin rail corridor has the capacity to route a marginal amount, roughly under two hundred thousand barrels per day. The China–Iran rail link had an early test run as far back as February 2016. Services were suspended during COVID, with limited movement…

— dan linnaeus (@DanLinnaeus) April 27, 2026

MouthBQ98 said:

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Theoretically they can just pump the oil out into the desert to pool up in depressions on the ground. It would be possibly a giant mess and ecological disaster and big fire hazard but would preserve the well condition.

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...or they could just dump it in the Strait as a big f u to the world.

TacosaurusRex said:

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aezmvp said:

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They don't have sufficient engines or cars to transport in bulk. There is a reason sea is far more effecient. Additionally there are multiple guage changes and some other issues which prevent this from handling the volume needed. Rail is relatively easy to repair from battle damage, the Russians in particular are very good at that, but tunnels, bridges, switching equipment and rail yards are different and harder to replace. I wouldn't be surprised to see some missions on these rail lines also target rail engines which then need to be cleared, replaced etc. A train full of oil is a very, very nasty thing to clean up after an air strike.

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If they had them, the loading and unloading terminals would be hit and that would be that. No reason to chase down engines or anything else. I still vote for dropping all of the bridges that connect Tehran with the outside world though and especially every bridge that connects to Iraq.

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I would still hit a few of the engines on the track. Why? A couple of reasons. It's messy, expensive and time consuming to clean up. They're not replacing the engines any time soon. Basically all non-state based rail transfers halt. You can't afford the insurance any more. Might not make a difference to the regime but it further halts economic activity out and makes anyone in China selling into Iran think twice without government guarantees. That takes time and money, neither of which Tehran can afford.

But a point well made.

Iran is already saying "F U" to the world. Sure, they can do all sorts of nasty things with their oil. But what they can't do is store it, ship it, or sell it. That's why they have no leverage.

I've been thinking the same thing.

Just blow up the trains and the tracks.

And that should be pretty easy to do, because you can't move or hide train tracks or train engines.

Dirt 05 said:

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Iran has a significant rail connection to China that was completed almost a year ago. That's not going to entirely make up for lack of sea access, but they are by no means completely cut off from the world's largest manufacturer nor from Russia's wheat supplies through the Caucuses and 'Stans. Iran can't ship enough of their petroleum east to maintain everything, but they will be able to run and sustain what they prioritize and they don't give a flip about people because they just blame the great satans and inshallah mentality.

It is no doubt a strategic move by China to have built this because it bypasses the US ability to secure/control trade through the Suez, Malaca, and Hormuz straights.

Interestingly two major assumptions held by many of the west have been disproven at this point. 1. That there is a significant subset of Iranians that would revolt - this never happened. 2. That Iran had terror networks throughout the West that would cause significant pain on the homefront - fortunately these cells have also been proven to be non-existent. Otherwise what are they waiting for?

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Couple F35 sorties a day and that railway line will be a pile of tangled metal with bridges laying on the ground

Would violate the ceasefire. I think Israel hit some of the train infrastructure though before everything cooled down.

Would be a shame if there happened to be some sort of partisan inside Iran that happened to be able to sabotage some real bridges.

Isn't the ceasefire on 'indeterminate" status right now that basically can end on a moment's notice?

Yeah but if your goal is to choke them out you don't want to give them extra reason to cause significant economic damage on your regional partners.

WSJ: "Trump opted to continue squeezing Iran’s economy and oil exports by preventing shipping to and from its ports. He assessed that his other options—resume bombing or walk away from the conflict—carried more risk than maintaining the blockade" https://t.co/7APKVg6I0V

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 29, 2026

American Hardwood said:

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Isn't the ceasefire on 'indeterminate" status right now that basically can end on a moment's notice?

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Yes. And it will end one of three ways. The Iranians get close to getting their uranium unearthed. The Iranians attack based on the economic circumstances. Or the regime surrenders (before or after a military coup).

ErnestEndeavor said:

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Would violate the ceasefire. I think Israel hit some of the train infrastructure though before everything cooled down.

Would be a shame if there happened to be some sort of partisan inside Iran that happened to be able to sabotage some real bridges.

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At that point what does it really matter ? Stop the cease fire and bomb some oil equipment to let them know we aren't messing around