***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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Windy City Ag
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In reply to lb3 • 3:15p, 5/4/26
AG
Quote:
The Northern Alliance model is what we should use. Imbed some CIA forward controllers into the protests and have B-1s provide close air support.


What would you say is the comp for the Northern Alliance within Iran? You would be very hard pressed to find one.

The NA had existed and was in conflict with the Taliban for some time prior to 9/11. Afghanistan had been in a simmering Civil War between much poorer and poorly armed and equipped tribal groups.

Iran has been violently squashing discontent within its borders for nearly 50 years.



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Tailgate88
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4:01p, 5/4/26
AG
Consider the source but hope it's true.

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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Tailgate88 • 4:11p, 5/4/26
AG
Would be nice but that seems suspect. Also, there's no real reason for a country to declare war formally. Are they required to fax a copy to all their friends and enemies?

But for the UAE, I think k they definitely take some action.

Me, I'd sink or better yet seize any Iranian oil tanker parked in the straight.
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DTP02
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In reply to Tailgate88 • 4:13p, 5/4/26
AG
Tailgate88 said:
Consider the source but hope it's true.



They gonna send an army of Bangladeshi or Phillipino workers in? Because ain't no Kuwaiti, Emirati or Saudi putting a boot on the ground in Iran. And they can't do 1% of the bombing damage we've already done, which hasn't resulted in a regime change.
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txwxman
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 4:28p, 5/4/26
flown-the-coop said:
I had read that the IGRC is having to rely on the army to try and re-establish some of the command structure, but as most know that is internally problematic and fraught with competing ideals, motivations and concepts for the future of Iran.

With the ayatollah not effective, then it will continue to be interesting (and difficult) to resolve to an outcome. So I think that just means more bombing.

Army…as in Artesh?
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to txwxman • 4:30p, 5/4/26
AG
Yes, the Artesh. I didn't take the time to grab their correct name. Discussion was in a George Friedman GPF email.
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The Fall Guy
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4:51p, 5/4/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-stops-short-of-calling-iranian-fire-at-uae-a-ceasefire-violation/

Trump stops short in calling Iranian attack on UAE a ceasefire violation.

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aezmvp
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In reply to DTP02 • 5:15p, 5/4/26
Im betting they get back an island or two.
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policywonk98
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5:28p, 5/4/26
AG
Some of this signaling is likely bluffing.

But it's truly a sad time in this country, that more of my fellow citizens don't better understand how significant it is that Israel is in a military coalition with the countries it's in a coalition with and working together in a more significant way than at any point in their history……and how this helps the U.S. way more than most people seem to understand.

There is a lot of things to dog Trump on. What is unfolding in the ME right now, is not one of those things. It may not all work out. The complexity of ME is enormous, but after studying this stuff for over 30 years. The Trump Doctrine in the ME has given the world its best chance of solving some of the ME quagmires that have plagued the world ever since the discovery of oil there in the early 1900s.

The owner of casinos has certainly gambled big here. If it doesn't payoff, he will continue to be considered one of the worst presidents in U.S. history by those that control our history books. The Abraham Accords alone should have been enough. But If this does pay off, he should absolutely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Even if this currently formed coalition only lasts a decade or so before going south.

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The Fall Guy
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5:38p, 5/4/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-fm-says-no-military-solution-in-hormuz-warns-us-and-uae-against-quagmire/

Sounds like rogue elements attacked UAE today?
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Jack Squat 83
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In reply to policywonk98 • 5:49p, 5/4/26
AG
policywonk98 said:
Some of this signaling is likely bluffing.

But it's truly a sad time in this country, that more of my fellow citizens don't better understand how significant it is that Israel is in a military coalition with the countries it's in a coalition with and working together in a more significant way than at any point in their history……and how this helps the U.S. way more than most people seem to understand.

There is a lot of things to dog Trump on. What is unfolding in the ME right now, is not one of those things. It may not all work out. The complexity of ME is enormous, but after studying this stuff for over 30 years. The Trump Doctrine in the ME has given the world its best chance of solving some of the ME quagmires that have plagued the world ever since the discovery of oil there in the early 1900s.

The owner of casinos has certainly gambled big here. If it doesn't payoff, he will continue to be considered one of the worst presidents in U.S. history by those that control our history books. The Abraham Accords alone should have been enough. But If this does pay off, he should absolutely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Even if this currently formed coalition only lasts a decade or so before going south.


There are many forces and many dollars committed to making sure the everyday folks don't understand how monumental this could be. "They" will never give the man an ounce of credit for anything good.........since votes are at stake.

I don't think you know me.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to policywonk98 • 6:09p, 5/4/26
AG
Well said.
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KentK93
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In reply to policywonk98 • 6:17p, 5/4/26
AG
policywonk98 said:
Some of this signaling is likely bluffing.

But it's truly a sad time in this country, that more of my fellow citizens don't better understand how significant it is that Israel is in a military coalition with the countries it's in a coalition with and working together in a more significant way than at any point in their history……and how this helps the U.S. way more than most people seem to understand.

There is a lot of things to dog Trump on. What is unfolding in the ME right now, is not one of those things. It may not all work out. The complexity of ME is enormous, but after studying this stuff for over 30 years. The Trump Doctrine in the ME has given the world its best chance of solving some of the ME quagmires that have plagued the world ever since the discovery of oil there in the early 1900s.

The owner of casinos has certainly gambled big here. If it doesn't payoff, he will continue to be considered one of the worst presidents in U.S. history by those that control our history books. The Abraham Accords alone should have been enough. But If this does pay off, he should absolutely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Even if this currently formed coalition only lasts a decade or so before going south.


Excellent post!
“If you think you can do it better, go ahead. We will step aside.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio
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Tailgate88
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In reply to policywonk98 • 6:18p, 5/4/26
AG
PoTD!
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YouBet
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In reply to policywonk98 • 7:32p, 5/4/26
AG
policywonk98 said:
Some of this signaling is likely bluffing.

But it's truly a sad time in this country, that more of my fellow citizens don't better understand how significant it is that Israel is in a military coalition with the countries it's in a coalition with and working together in a more significant way than at any point in their history……and how this helps the U.S. way more than most people seem to understand.

There is a lot of things to dog Trump on. What is unfolding in the ME right now, is not one of those things. It may not all work out. The complexity of ME is enormous, but after studying this stuff for over 30 years. The Trump Doctrine in the ME has given the world its best chance of solving some of the ME quagmires that have plagued the world ever since the discovery of oil there in the early 1900s.

The owner of casinos has certainly gambled big here. If it doesn't payoff, he will continue to be considered one of the worst presidents in U.S. history by those that control our history books. The Abraham Accords alone should have been enough. But If this does pay off, he should absolutely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Even if this currently formed coalition only lasts a decade or so before going south.



As a skeptic, this is a great post. If this works out, there should be much crow eating by many. Hell, probably already should be. Even if it doesn't work out that we don't get our own maximalist demands the stage has been set where Iran is a pariah state and none of their neighbors will ever trust them or likely bargain with them while the 12vers are in charge.

And unlike NK, Iran doesn't have a superpower as their only neighbor who will have their back.
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2026NCAggies
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 7:48p, 5/4/26
2000AgPhD said:
I think it is Trump trying to get the Iranians to react militarily so he can clean house.


This. We're humiliating them with opening the strait while blockading them.

Trump wants them to break the cease fire. Which I predict them to do. Then we can finish the job militarily

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Line Ate Member
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In reply to policywonk98 • 8:11p, 5/4/26
AG
policywonk98 said:
Some of this signaling is likely bluffing.

But it's truly a sad time in this country, that more of my fellow citizens don't better understand how significant it is that Israel is in a military coalition with the countries it's in a coalition with and working together in a more significant way than at any point in their history……and how this helps the U.S. way more than most people seem to understand.

There is a lot of things to dog Trump on. What is unfolding in the ME right now, is not one of those things. It may not all work out. The complexity of ME is enormous, but after studying this stuff for over 30 years. The Trump Doctrine in the ME has given the world its best chance of solving some of the ME quagmires that have plagued the world ever since the discovery of oil there in the early 1900s.

The owner of casinos has certainly gambled big here. If it doesn't payoff, he will continue to be considered one of the worst presidents in U.S. history by those that control our history books. The Abraham Accords alone should have been enough. But If this does pay off, he should absolutely win the Nobel Peace Prize. Even if this currently formed coalition only lasts a decade or so before going south.

What is really crazy is that he did this during his first term (got mostly Muslim countries to speak to Israel). This is a great next step. Eliminate Iran's "control" over the surrounding countries with their help along with Israel's.
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Who?mikejones!
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9:01p, 5/4/26
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2000AgPhD
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9:53p, 5/4/26
What qualifies as a "sustained Iranian barrage" on May 4, 2026?
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fullback44
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 10:06p, 5/4/26
AG
2000AgPhD said:
What qualifies as a "sustained Iranian barrage" on May 4, 2026?

2500 molotov cocktails thrown from the shoreline from men speeding around on camels backs ?
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fullback44
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In reply to Tailgate88 • 10:06p, 5/4/26
AG
Tailgate88 said:
Consider the source but hope it's true.


Haha…. What is this site smoking ? They may declare war on them.. after that .. well
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DannyDuberstein
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 10:12p, 5/4/26
AG
2000AgPhD said:
What qualifies as a "sustained Iranian barrage" on May 4, 2026?


Whatever it is, I hope they keep it up. They will soon run out of Iranians to do it.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 10:32p, 5/4/26
AG
2000AgPhD said:
What qualifies as a "sustained Iranian barrage" on May 4, 2026?

I would guess this is the leaked narrative to resume the FO part of the operation 2.0. It's pretty clear that the operational and tactical commander wants to support Arab countries that would support tactics against Iran. If they shot at us then it's game on again.
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4
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 10:55p, 5/4/26
AG
Who?mikejones! said:

Can we stop playing around with these morons now?

They only understand strength, and more specifically, force.

It's time to completely end them.

Once they have nothing left, including electricity, gas, and water, their Arab neighbors, who hate them, will do the rest.

These nut bags need to be pushing daisies by the weekend.
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nortex97
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In reply to 4 • 5:15a, 5/5/26
AG
It's an 'interesting' route to be sure.

I'm not a mariner/navy guy at all, but that seems quite narrow/thin for these enormous VLCC types of ships. Hopefully much more to follow.
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BCrusher91
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6:11a, 5/5/26
AG
We only need it to work for another 2/3 weeks though, right?

Let Iran become the aggressor and we could flip the script in n our body politic
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sts7049
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6:12a, 5/5/26
AG
from what i've seen from Sal (shipping guy) that route has already been used by several large vessels. it's not a navigational constraint
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benchmark
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:07a, 5/5/26
AG
nortex97 said:
I'm not a mariner/navy guy at all, but that seems quite narrow/thin for these enormous VLCC types of ships. Hopefully much more to follow.

Looks like the passage may be between 2 small Omani islands Bu Rashid and Didamar - a distance of about 5 NM. By comparison, SW Pass on the Mississippi is about 1/3 of mile wide. The difference being that the Hormuz ships don't have a pilot aboard (a specialized navigator with local waterway knowledge).

ETA. Also for comparison, the Singapore strait is 1.2 NM wide at it's narrowest point south of St. John's Island.
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The Fall Guy
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7:09a, 5/5/26
AG
US and Israel planning g on a short campaign to push Iran back to talks.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-and-us-preparing-for-potential-short-campaign-to-pressure-iran-in-talks-amid-truce-tensions-report/

Annihilate the coast on the Strait. That should be number 1 objective. Second is secure the uranium

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Mas89
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In reply to DTP02 • 7:11a, 5/5/26
AG
DTP02 said:
Tailgate88 said:
Consider the source but hope it's true.



They gonna send an army of Bangladeshi or Phillipino workers in? Because ain't no Kuwaiti, Emirati or Saudi putting a boot on the ground in Iran. And they can't do 1% of the bombing damage we've already done, which hasn't resulted in a regime change.

Exactly. Same as the Persians in Iran and those formerly from Iran living around the world. Lovers, not fighters.
'They will run away faster than the French.
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No Spin Ag
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7:19a, 5/5/26
So the Chairman just mentioned the 82nd, a few times, and how they got on the ground to accomplish missions in the past.

Is this the, "we told everyone they were trained, ready, and have a history of putting their boots on the ground" moment so if we do put boots there's nothing to complain about?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Houston Lee
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7:41a, 5/5/26
AG
Hegseth says Project Freedom is separate and distinct from Epic Fury. So far, the Iranian attacks have been insignificant and under the threshold to violate the Epic Fury ceasefire.

Hegseth says Project Freedom is a "defensive" operation and is a temporary operation. Soon, the US will end Project Freedom and hand over to the international community to take over.

The "War Powers Act" clock is stopped. Epic Fury is on hold. Project Freedom is a separate operation and defensive in nature and does not start any War Powers clock.
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Logos Stick
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8:19a, 5/5/26
a bit of good news

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2026NCAggies
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8:19a, 5/5/26
It is about to get hot again! Hit remaining military targets 25~30% left, kill as many IRGC leaders and soldiers as possible (Israel), bomb infrastructure (bridges, rails, ports, electric and oil), get internet back up in the country and arm the civilians somehow, and provide air support. Do that and keep the blockade.

Nuke material it will have to be a mow the grass situation until you can go in and get it or a deal is made

Fully open the strait. And it is a clear win. That is all the IRGC has left at this point, This is the top priority right now, get the oil flowing out asap. You do this and gas goes back down to $3 or below and the American people will be happier and view this war totally different. We won the war in 3 months and got the price of gas back down. Rs will have a good chance in the midterms.

People say well what about the people with regards to infrastructure, F it at this point, this is war and that is how you win. If the people of Iran take control and run out the IRGC than you know other countries will go in and provide support to get them back and running again.. At this point the people are probably okay with sacrificing some of their infrastructure to rid themselves of IRGC.

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The Fall Guy
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8:23a, 5/5/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hegseth-iran-ceasefire-is-not-over-the-us-is-not-looking-for-a-fight/

Hegseth said ceasefire is not over. US not looking for a fight. Still think yesterday's attack on UAE was rouge elements.
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