It's actually the nukes I'm concerned about. If we have to bomb rebuilding in a year or two or three, so be it. It's a small price vs the alternative.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/senior-iranian-mp-dismisses-reported-proposal-to-end-war-as-american-wish-list/

Iran responds

I do not understand us pausing Operation Freedom, someone explain that one to me please

Another question, Does Trump know Pakistan is not neutral and they are on Irans side?

flown-the-coop said:

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How is China and Russia doing their resupply? Pretty sure shipping via water and air are out.

Are there nightly trains and convoys rolling through without us knowing?

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Are we going to inspect every ship coming from China once the blockade is lifted? and Russia will find a way to help, they always do

Is dropping MOABs on Mothers Day a tacky thing for Trump to do?

As mentioned yesterday, this thing feels as though massive more kinetic action is in the cards and the days of passing notes in class are just about over.

Ready to get back to just reading this thread for news about us blowing **** up and separating the ayatollahs from their ayafingers, ayaarms, ayalegs and ayatowelcoveredheads.

We have shown great patience and restraint. But the time needs to be over.

2026NCAggies said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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How is China and Russia doing their resupply? Pretty sure shipping via water and air are out.

Are there nightly trains and convoys rolling through without us knowing?

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Are we going to inspect every ship coming from China once the blockade is lifted? and Russia will find a way to help, they always do

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Yes.

Rockdoc said:

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I'm willing to bet Trump and his advisers know more than we do.

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Well I would hope so....

Again what is the reasoning on pausing operation Freedom? Was that hurting Iran or something?

flown-the-coop said:

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2026NCAggies said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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How is China and Russia doing their resupply? Pretty sure shipping via water and air are out.

Are there nightly trains and convoys rolling through without us knowing?

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Are we going to inspect every ship coming from China once the blockade is lifted? and Russia will find a way to help, they always do

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Yes.

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How exactly, we going to have people in Iranian ports waiting to inspect? We going to board their ships with the Navy?

2026NCAggies said:

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Rockdoc said:

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I'm willing to bet Trump and his advisers know more than we do.

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Well I would hope so....

Again what is the reasoning on pausing operation Freedom? Was that hurting Iran or something?

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Plausibly, and this is just speculative, they lack command and control and there's a desire for them not to 'get lucky' with a strike on a big tanker/US warship which would put the whole 'peace' process off track. Again, just my theory.

From an article today in the WSJ

DUBAIPresident Trump chose to look the other way after Iran launched three salvos of missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates, one of America's main Middle Eastern partners, despite a cease-fire he negotiated nearly a month ago.

The likely conclusion in Tehran, Gulf governments fear, is that further escalation pays off because Trump is so intent on extricating himself from the war that he will ignore renewed Iranian attacks on America's regional allies.

Iran seems ready for the cease-fire to be broken down, and the U.S. is not, so it is a unilateral cease-fire at this point," said Mahdi Ghuloom, a fellow at the ORF Middle East think tank in Dubai.

DannyDuberstein said:

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MJ20/20 said:

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Without regime change we are kicking the can down the road to revisit again. Regime change is not just leaders at the top it is also the tentacles of the IRGC. Must be pulled out with all the roots to ensure progress.

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Iraq Part 2. We aren't going to sign up for that again. What we are doing now should have been the Iraq strategy, not vice versa. Yes, we'll have to hit them again. And probably again. Far lower price than Iraq was, and at some point, we probably get to a regime that plays ball with us a bit more so they don't get killed.

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Containment Strategy. Certainly better than nation building. Just need a better solution for keeping the Strait open. However, I think the necessity of the Strait is going to be reduced over next several years after this endeavor. Everyone else dependent on it are already planning out alternatives.

SA68AG said:

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It's beginning to look to me that militarily Trump has folded.

We had a foot on their throat and didn't finish the job.

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There is no finish unless we are willing to sign up for an Iraq job again. No thanks. But just letting them have a free run to build nukes isn't an answer either.

That will help but there are system vulnerabilities. Like the UAE pipeline to the other side of the Musandam Penninsula. Infrastructure inside the range of Iranian capabilities is still vulnerable.

aezmvp said:

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That will help but there are system vulnerabilities. Like the UAE pipeline to the other side of the Musandam Penninsula. Infrastructure inside the range of Iranian capabilities is still vulnerable.

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True but if Iran continues to attack infrastructure that is not theirs and not in their sphere they will just invite other countries to team up on them. More pariah actions of they do that.

nortex97 said:

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2026NCAggies said:

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Rockdoc said:

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I'm willing to bet Trump and his advisers know more than we do.

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Well I would hope so....

Again what is the reasoning on pausing operation Freedom? Was that hurting Iran or something?

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Plausibly, and this is just speculative, they lack command and control and there's a desire for them not to 'get lucky' with a strike on a big tanker/US warship which would put the whole 'peace' process off track. Again, just my theory.

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This was my line of thinking also, along with maybe wanting some of our gulf partners to step up more one the escorting duties after we showed them it could be done.

Blackbeard94 said:

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From an article today in the WSJ

DUBAIPresident Trump chose to look the other way after Iran launched three salvos of missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates, one of America's main Middle Eastern partners, despite a cease-fire he negotiated nearly a month ago.

The likely conclusion in Tehran, Gulf governments fear, is that further escalation pays off because Trump is so intent on extricating himself from the war that he will ignore renewed Iranian attacks on America's regional allies.

Iran seems ready for the cease-fire to be broken down, and the U.S. is not, so it is a unilateral cease-fire at this point," said Mahdi Ghuloom, a fellow at the ORF Middle East think tank in Dubai.

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Thanks for posting that. I fear it is correct.

Ya. I think there's nobody in charge over there and we realize that letting a random captain in the IRGC detail the whole thing because he decides death to the infidels is always good is maybe not the best risk to take

2026NCAggies said:

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Rockdoc said:

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I'm willing to bet Trump and his advisers know more than we do.

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Well I would hope so....

Again what is the reasoning on pausing operation Freedom? Was that hurting Iran or something?

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Prepare yourself to never getting the answer to your questions.

nortex97 said:

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2026NCAggies said:

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Rockdoc said:

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I'm willing to bet Trump and his advisers know more than we do.

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Well I would hope so....

Again what is the reasoning on pausing operation Freedom? Was that hurting Iran or something?

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Plausibly, and this is just speculative, they lack command and control and there's a desire for them not to 'get lucky' with a strike on a big tanker/US warship which would put the whole 'peace' process off track. Again, just my theory.

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Good thing we won't let the fact that they keep shooting at us and our allies derail the peace process.

Sumlins Pool Guy said:

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Ya. I think there's nobody in charge over there and we realize that letting a random captain in the IRGC detail the whole thing because he decides death to the infidels is always good is maybe not the best risk to take

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I don't see how any deal can be made for just this reason. Who are we going to make a deal with that can be trusted and not found hanging from the rafters by some usurper next week or a year from now.

If a deal is really being sought after by Trump, how will any guarantees be possible? Seems like no matter what gets put on paper, we are going to be bombing again at some point, might as well get it done now.

However, as much as I would like to see regime change, that was NOT a stated goal. The only goal left is about nuclear material and nuclear enrichment. Trump may have a different opinion about what those issues look like to you and me, so the potential there for disappointment is very real, but may in fact make the entire operation considered a success if those thresholds are met.

It would be a massive, missed opportunity if we don't get more than that IMO, but I don't have to make decisions on the lives of many thousands of people.

Ya I think the hope is you make a deal with the "Govt" (new ayatollah is a veg) and tell the iranians they're going to start having an economy again and hope the IRGC doesnt go postal. I would also bet if the IRGC goes postal and kills a deal you're going to see the best chance yet at regime change

American Hardwood said:

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Sumlins Pool Guy said:

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Ya. I think there's nobody in charge over there and we realize that letting a random captain in the IRGC detail the whole thing because he decides death to the infidels is always good is maybe not the best risk to take

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I don't see how any deal can be made for just this reason. Who are we going to make a deal with that can be trusted and not found hanging from the rafters by some usurper next week or a year from now.

If a deal is really being sought after by Trump, how will any guarantees be possible? Seems like no matter what gets put on paper, we are going to be bombing again at some point, might as well get it done now.

However, as much as I would like to see regime change, that was NOT a stated goal. The only goal left is about nuclear material and nuclear enrichment. Trump may have a different opinion about what those issues look like to you and me, so the potential there for disappointment is very real, but may in fact make the entire operation considered a success if those thresholds are met.

It would be a massive, missed opportunity if we don't get more than that IMO, but I don't have to make decisions on the lives of many thousands of people.

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you act as if this entire deal comes down to signing a sheet of paper and then going on our merry way.

1. NO ONE knows what the FINAL deal will even look like

2. Trump wants to get back the enriched Uranium which we blew up in June 25. so EVERYONE WILL SEE if the deal works or does not work.

why are you discounting the very real possibility that Mossad and CIA

will continue to work to undermine the IRGC and lead to regime change over the next year?

I'm not, I'm just looking at the face value of what 'the deal' might be as it is being speculated and the guarantees, or lack thereof, within. I am certain Mossad at the very minimum will keep doing what it is doing, but we will never know about, and it won't be spelled out in any deal.

American Hardwood said:

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I'm not, I'm just looking at the face value of what 'the deal' might be as it is being speculated and the guarantees, or lack thereof, within. I am certain Mossad at the very minimum will keep doing what it is doing, but we will never know about, and it won't be spelled out in any deal.

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Trump is currently waxing poetically with a room full of military moms. He does not seem to be overly concerned with the 1-page memo of peace. He continues to be very relaxed and joking about - indication he is not overly frustrated with the developments of the last 24 hours (or lack of developments).

Looking at the face value of 'the deal' is a fool's errand at this point. There are items "leaked" that are almost certainly made up by a leaker whose source is al-Jazeera.

Quote:

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U.S. Central Command announced Wednesday that American forces operating in the Gulf of Oman "enforced blockade measures by disabling an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port."

CENTCOM said the incident involving the M/T Hasna unfolded around 9 a.m. ET "as it transited international waters enroute to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman."

"American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade. After Hasna's crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker's rudder by firing several rounds from the 20mm cannon gun of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)," CENTCOM said.

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https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/iran-war-news-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-prices-project-freedom-may-6

This one pager would be a mullahs Victory!

Burpelson said:

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This one pager would be a mullahs Victory!

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What is on that one page? I haven't seen it.

I don't trust any of those estimates, new or old. Following the kinetic news.

NEW 🔴

A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fired 20mm cannon rounds to disable the rudder of an Iranian-flagged oil tanker that refused to comply with blockade warnings in the Gulf of Oman, according to CENTCOM. The vessel, M/T Hasna, was heading toward an Iranian port and is no…

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 6, 2026

Quote:

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I don't trust any of those estimates, new or old. Following the kinetic news.

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Good point.