***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Ag with kids • 8:38a, 7/8/26
AG
Two other potentials. It was doing clandestine things we or one of our allies did not like and we helped it to the ground.

Or it was fanciful flying designed to evade radar and went badly (highly improbable James Bond scenario gone badly).

So mechanical / pilot issue. Shot by Iran. Shot by someone not Iran. James Bond operation.

BTW - Trump said blockade probably going back in.
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Rapier108
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8:41a, 7/8/26
As of now, the plane crash doesn't seem to be connected to Iran.

The crew reported they were having technical issues with their navigation systems, and asked Karachi ATC for vectors.

Also, the aircraft was returning to Pakistan after undergoing maintenance in Sharjah, UAE.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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American Hardwood
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In reply to Ag with kids • 8:42a, 7/8/26
AG
Does Iran have the means to shoot down a cargo plane at 35,000 ft.?
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Ag with kids
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In reply to American Hardwood • 8:45a, 7/8/26
AG
American Hardwood said:
Does Iran have the means to shoot down a cargo plane at 35,000 ft.?

IDK

I think they had some Russian SAMs, but we took out most of those early on.


Of course, it could just be a "normal" crash where **** just went wrong on the plane and it's entirely coincidental to the Iran conflict.
You can turn off signatures, btw
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Rapier108
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In reply to American Hardwood • 8:49a, 7/8/26
American Hardwood said:
Does Iran have the means to shoot down a cargo plane at 35,000 ft.?

Yes, but this plane wasn't over Iran or even offshore of Iran.

It was well into Pakistani airspace.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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The Fall Guy
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9:18a, 7/8/26
AG
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/eu-aviation-agency-tells-operators-to-avoid-iran-iraq-and-lebanon-airspaces-until-august-31/

EU is telling aviators to avoid Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon airspace until August 31st.
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OPAG
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9:47a, 7/8/26
AG
As I mentioned earlier, I lived in Bahrain for three years. I still have a number of friends there. some that worked at the US base there. Notice the term 'worked'. They had all been moved out months before this engagement. So I don't know anyone that works at the base any more. Not because of the damage, because they were moved out BEFORE

However, I still have a number of friends who live there, I asked the about the "massive" damage that was allegedly afflicted there according to the WSJ ($400 mill worth)>

They all tell me that is grossly exaggerated. There is some visible damage to some storage areas and that since the original March opening round, things are pretty normal now. There have been attacks but they have been intercepted. With very little actual damage.

The Bahrain government released this,

This morning.

Iran is not winning militarily in anyway shape or form. The attacks are weaker, mostly drones now and are getting intercepted regularly.

And the massive damage to the US base there is BS, greatly exaggerated,
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aggiehawg
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In reply to OPAG • 9:50a, 7/8/26
AG
Thank you for that info and insight.
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GAC06
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In reply to OPAG • 9:54a, 7/8/26
AG
400 million in damage is very believable considering what was apparently hit
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BMX Bandit
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10:01a, 7/8/26


Good



No more BS MOUs please
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Logos Stick
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In reply to OPAG • 10:06a, 7/8/26
OPAG said:
As I mentioned earlier, I lived in Bahrain for three years. I still have a number of friends there. some that worked at the US base there. Notice the term 'worked'. They had all been moved out months before this engagement. So I don't know anyone that works at the base any more. Not because of the damage, because they were moved out BEFORE

However, I still have a number of friends who live there, I asked the about the "massive" damage that was allegedly afflicted there according to the WSJ ($400 mill worth)>

They all tell me that is grossly exaggerated. There is some visible damage to some storage areas and that since the original March opening round, things are pretty normal now. There have been attacks but they have been intercepted. With very little actual damage.

The Bahrain government released this,

This morning.

Iran is not winning militarily in anyway shape or form. The attacks are weaker, mostly drones now and are getting intercepted regularly.

And the massive damage to the US base there is BS, greatly exaggerated,



They don't have to win and that's not their goal. Their actions effectively disrupt the world oil and gas market - and by extension - global politics. In particular, they want Trump and the Rs gone. This is a cat and mouse game by them to prolong the conflict and it's working.
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W
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10:10a, 7/8/26
AG
yep, that's it

Iran doesn't have to win militarily

just dodge and delay

time is on their side in the short term
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TSUAggie
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10:12a, 7/8/26
I'm sure we'll have a two-week ceasefire any minute now so we can negotiate a peace deal. #winning
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Im Gipper
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In reply to TSUAggie • 10:13a, 7/8/26
TSUAggie said:
I'm sure we'll have a two-week ceasefire any minute now so we can negotiate a peace deal. #winning

Would you prefer no peace deal, no cease fire and no negotiation?

Very bizarre post!

I'm Gipper
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Ag_07
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10:20a, 7/8/26
AG
I think this was the play all along.

Do everything possible diplomatically knowing Iran won't fall in line then sit and wait for them to do something like attack ships in the strait.

Now he can say 'See we tried and nothing works with these idiots. Light em up again'
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javajaws
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:23a, 7/8/26
AG
Ag_07 said:
I think this was the play all along.

Do everything possible diplomatically knowing Iran won't fall in line then sit and wait for them to do something like attack ships in the strait.

Now he can say 'See we tried and nothing works with these idiots. Light em up again'

I think that's wishful thinking. Trump will be back at the negotiating table next week...book it. Hope I'm wrong though.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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Rockdoc
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10:25a, 7/8/26
AG
Iran didn't shoot the plane down. The crew would have indicated if so.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to OPAG • 10:29a, 7/8/26
AG
Thank you for posting real informatuon. Greatly appreciated.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Logos Stick • 10:30a, 7/8/26
AG
You are describing terrorism. Terrorism can never be allowed to win nor persist. Hence Trump is fixing it.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Ag_07 • 10:36a, 7/8/26
AG
Ag_07 said:
I think this was the play all along.

Do everything possible diplomatically knowing Iran won't fall in line then sit and wait for them to do something like attack ships in the strait.

Now he can say 'See we tried and nothing works with these idiots. Light em up again'

I heard a pundit for the first time today quip that he now thinks the MOU was all a ruse.

I was emphatic that the MOU was misinformation and admitted i appeared to be wrong on the matter. We shall see if that holds up.

The MOU never felt like a "real"framework but sort of an appeasement list to Iran. They showed to the world and in particular any of their remaining sympathizers that no amount of appeasement, negotiations, "deals" is going to result in Iran "behaving".

Trump should have less of a challenge when convincing the GCC guys, particularly Saudis, that the SoH runs better with the USA in charge long term and Iran dealt with harshly.

We shall see.
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American Hardwood
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 10:47a, 7/8/26
AG
That has to be the line going forward. "They can't be negotiated with." Unless you are a country so addled with TDS that you can't see straight, you have to realize there is no room for fence-sitting and appeasement now on the issue of Iran. The "negotiations" were made very globally public so that there is no doubt in anyone's mind that the Iranian regime has to be isolated and dismantled. You can't be friends or partners with them in any way as they are untrustworthy and dedicated to their own destructive goals.
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OPAG
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In reply to Logos Stick • 10:51a, 7/8/26
AG
Logos Stick said:
OPAG said:
As I mentioned earlier, I lived in Bahrain for three years. I still have a number of friends there. some that worked at the US base there. Notice the term 'worked'. They had all been moved out months before this engagement. So I don't know anyone that works at the base any more. Not because of the damage, because they were moved out BEFORE

However, I still have a number of friends who live there, I asked the about the "massive" damage that was allegedly afflicted there according to the WSJ ($400 mill worth)>

They all tell me that is grossly exaggerated. There is some visible damage to some storage areas and that since the original March opening round, things are pretty normal now. There have been attacks but they have been intercepted. With very little actual damage.

The Bahrain government released this,

This morning.

Iran is not winning militarily in anyway shape or form. The attacks are weaker, mostly drones now and are getting intercepted regularly.

And the massive damage to the US base there is BS, greatly exaggerated,



They don't have to win and that's not their goal. Their actions effectively disrupt the world oil and gas market - and by extension - global politics. In particular, they want Trump and the Rs gone. This is a cat and mouse game by them to prolong the conflict and it's working.

No, it's actually not working and won't work.

Wait and see.

They are getting smoked militarily and they are really stupid as well.

They hit a tanker from Qatar, their closes friend in the GCC, they hit a Saudi and and UAE tanker. They are just really pissing off their Islamic neighbors.

The only area they are winning is with the TDS anti Trump and left media sources.

If you carefully follow what is really happening it is apparent that Iran is running out of gas in more ways then one.

The last attacks were from drones and we are now really going after and targeting their fast boats.

The issue is that most have no clue what is going on.

This 'delay; has been a massive win for the US MASSIVE

We now have all the Arab states fully on our side here. We stopped because they asked us to stop so they could improve their defenses. Nothing is getting through now and Iran's blustering about launch the 'mother of all responses; is Bagdad Bob sad!

The deal is this really huge because it is not Iran that we are fighting here. It is Islamic Jihaist. And the Arab states are done with that whole mentality. Only the IRGC, and it's proxies remain as far in nation states that are all in for Jihad. They are losing and losing bigly. And will lose. And that is good thing.
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one safe place
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In reply to TSUAggie • 10:56a, 7/8/26
TSUAggie said:
I'm sure we'll have a two-week ceasefire any minute now so we can negotiate a peace deal. #winning

Probably announce a two-week ceasefire that will last less than two days. Wash, rinse, repeat.
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OPAG
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10:57a, 7/8/26
AG
Furthermore, just heard back from one of my friends in Bahrain, the US base there is fully operation as well as the USPS, which runs out of the base there.

It is as I though, total BS from the WSJ.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to American Hardwood • 11:04a, 7/8/26
OPAG
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In reply to one safe place • 11:14a, 7/8/26
AG
one safe place said:
TSUAggie said:
I'm sure we'll have a two-week ceasefire any minute now so we can negotiate a peace deal. #winning

Probably announce a two-week ceasefire that will last less than two days. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Another that has no clue about what is going on here or what this really all about! Geez.

Why can you not understand that all this cease fire talk was really about.

1. It has created great unrest in the regime. There are hardliners, true Jihadist and then there are those who don't want to die and get targeted by Israel who are trying to have some sort of deal.

Their foreign minister just had rocks thrown at him yesterday for even seeking to talk with the US.

The funeral emotions are running hire for the hardliners.

2. The MOU was done at the request of Qatar and Pakistan and the Arab neighbors! It gave them time to improve their defenses. It created a window to get all the stuck shipping out of the Gulf.

3. The whole world, and especially the moderate Islamic Sunnis, now know that it is Iran;s jihadist regime that are the real bad guys here. There is no talk about the US being bullies in this game any more. This HAD TO HAPPEN. Iran claiming authority of International waters outside their 12 mile jurisdiction is insane. They are now nothing more than a band of pirates.

4. The truth is known across the world, about Iran and it]s Jihadist proxies. They are the evil ones here. Most of the US is now being woken up about the truth of Islam and it's truly evil foundations and Iran is just cementing that in. Attacking other Islamic countries including Qatar.

Without this cease fire, MOU none of these things becomes known.

There are other benefits.

The Arab coalition now will see that they need the US navy to protect their ships and now Trump is going to ask for compensation for doing such things. And we will get it.

Iranian frozen funds will start being tapped.


Oil prices are going to be held in check, wait and see.

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4
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11:29a, 7/8/26
AG
I want to know how it is we were targeting air defenses last night?

I was told their air defenses were completely destroyed three months ago...
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LMCane
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In reply to Ag with kids • 11:29a, 7/8/26
Ag with kids said:
LMCane said:
no one mentioning the fact that a UAE commercial cargo plane

crashed near the Iranian coast after diving from 35,000 feet shortly after takeoff from UAE

I don't think that is a coincidence.

Looks like it was going to Pakistan. If Iran shot it down, I think they pissed off the last "friend" they had left.

three large tankers blown up by the Islamic Republic within 9 hours of each other in the same area

then two hours after that a cargo plane from the UAE mysteriously dives and crashes into the ocean.

it's just a coincidence.
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LMCane
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In reply to 4 • 11:34a, 7/8/26
4 said:
I want to know how it is we were targeting air defenses last night?

I was told their air defenses were completely destroyed three months ago...

i was seeing video of a very large industrial complex completely on fire

so it was not just SAM batteries we were targeting this time

also initial reports of us taking out a senior leader

who knows. but the bombs being dropped on Bandar Abbas were INSIDE the city and not against SAMS

also small ships on fire
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to 4 • 11:44a, 7/8/26
AG
4 said:
I want to know how it is we were targeting air defenses last night?

I was told their air defenses were completely destroyed three months ago...

You were told quite clearly they were mostly destroyed. After last night you were also told quite clearly that Iran has chosen to reconstitute their air defenses during the cease fire rather than focus on feeding their people and rebuilding their infrastructure that has already been damaged.

They instead chose to dust off their buried and hidden launchers and missiles, launch them in abysmal failures of strikes, only to have those swiftly removed from service.

If you pay attention, its all been very consistent.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to LMCane • 11:46a, 7/8/26
AG
[You can not continue to be disrespectful to other posters. No more short timeouts for you given your track record for the behavior -- Staff]
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OPAG
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In reply to 4 • 11:49a, 7/8/26
AG
4 said:
I want to know how it is we were targeting air defenses last night?

I was told their air defenses were completely destroyed three months ago...

Because they have some things in storage and get some things in from China or Russia or whomever.

Grass grows, you don't just mow the yard once. LOL
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LMCane
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11:50a, 7/8/26
8 x 72 = 576 goats

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amercer
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12:14p, 7/8/26
AG
Iran is playing for complete US capitulation here. It's a dangerous gamble by their hardliners, but they think Trump is likely to wash his hands of the whole deal. We need a strategy that empowers the moderates (who probably aren't moderates in any sense other than they would prefer to stay alive and get rich instead of going boom)
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UTExan
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In reply to LMCane • 2:00p, 7/8/26
LMCane said:
8 x 72 = 576 goats



The last words of the speaker appeared to be "Bandar Abbas". Not sure if that was a location or direction of explosions.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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