The Dems will reverse the immigration situation and raise taxes. They want to protect abortion, DEI and trans/ gender surgeries.They took God out of their platform years ago. No thank you!

Got a Natty! said:

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My wife and I decided today to vote in the Democratic Primary because we have severa local races that will be decided in that primary. Our 2 votes in that one primary can have more of an impact than in a state wide race. Before we made that decision we looked at the Democratic ballot. Easy call for us to decide that we will vote in the local races only and not even participate in the state wide Democratic races.

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Vote Crockett in the senate race…. Insures an R win in November.

Whoop2 said:

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The Dems will reverse the immigration situation and raise taxes. They want to protect abortion, DEI and trans/ gender surgeries.They took God out of their platform years ago. No thank you!

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And my point is due to executive orders and almost zero legislative accomplishments many things will easily reverse. As far as some of the things you mentioned republican congress has continued to fund these.

the story is not that democrats are out voting republicans so far. It's how many more democrats are voting compared to 2022.

Which party is leading early primary turnout in each metro area?

Week 1 comparison: 2022 → 2026

DFW: 🔴 R +25.2 → 🔵 D +14.2
Houston: 🔴 R +25.1 → 🔵 D +5.8
Austin: 🔵 D +6.5 → 🔵 D +40.3
San Antonio: 🔴 R +13.9 → 🔵 D +26.1
RGV: 🔵 D +54.0 → 🔵 D +60.4

— VoteHub (@VoteHub) February 23, 2026

as others have said, too soon to tell if this os an anomaly or means something. The final primary totals are what we need to look at.

Black voters are turning out for Jazzy. That's essentially the tale of the tape there to me.

Zach knows this but the issues in TX primary for a white lib IF you get high black turnout:

Colin Allred won Dallas county by 63-34 (+29) but right now it looks like Crockett will get 60% (!!!) of all Dems who voted Allred in the GENERAL to turn out.

She's winning blacks 8:1 https://t.co/k16tUPG7Uh

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) February 19, 2026

I'm a little surprised by that but it won't matter in November, either way. If she does somehow win the primary, she will wind up getting a lot of cash and air time this summer/fall, and her presence on TV/online will inspire a pretty good conservative turnout in the fall to swamp her racially motivated 'juice base.'

A core argument of Crockett’s “juice base turnout” strategy is having a unique ability to activate Dem-leaning people of color that rarely/never turn out.

But Black voter turnout already nearly matches its population share. And they only represent only 13% of the state.

The key… pic.twitter.com/G1elem1X1x

— Adam Carlson (@admcrlsn) February 22, 2026

The math won't work for her in the fall.

shiftyandquick said:

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This March I will be voting in the Dem primary for the very first time. There are probably a lot like me.

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So you prefer socialism, communism, high taxes, big government, small individual, and less liberty? Yeah makes perfect sense to me. That'll show 'em.

Remember this everyone.

Bookmark, download straight to your phone as a background image is you have to.

Primary voting DOES NOT equal anything much for the general election. https://t.co/mPRmCHfKCy

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) February 22, 2026

Early voting data can be interesting, but it's not predictive.

That Hobbs Lake tweet is interesting, but ignores the "story". It's 2022 v 2026 that we need to watch once primary is over

This seems like a good place to remind everyone of the last time a Democrat won a state wide election.

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Super Bowl champs

It's the primaries. Most are voting for names they don't know

41% of Republican voters are UNDECIDED on Railroad Commissioner. That means most people voting this week will pick a name they don’t know. Pick me - the one who’s been in the field for 35 years. #hirehawk

— HawkDunlap (@HawkDunlap) February 23, 2026

ts5641 said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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This March I will be voting in the Dem primary for the very first time. There are probably a lot like me.

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So you prefer socialism, communism, high taxes, big government, small individual, and less liberty? Yeah makes perfect sense to me. That'll show 'em.

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since when are tariffs lower taxes? and trump is expanding the deficit. Since when is masked men arresting and killing citizens more liberty?

I remember when I went to vote in the primary when Beto was running, I did it on Election Day. The line was out the door and wrapped around the building for the Democrat party. The Republican line was five people. I was in and out in five minutes. And Beto still lost in the general. Don't put too much into this.

Seems like of you are using the open primary system to try and select the opponent you think has the least chance of winning the general. I get that. Pretty common, and Niiki Haley got a whole heck of a lot of votes from Democrats in the 2024 GOP Primaries.

But it would be helpful if someone could explain to me the rationale for a State even having an open primary system.

What product that we buy is more expensive because of tariffs? I feel safer every time a masked federal law enforcement officer removes an unvetted illegal immigrant.

itsyourboypookie said:

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It's the primaries. Most are voting for names they don't know

41% of Republican voters are UNDECIDED on Railroad Commissioner. That means most people voting this week will pick a name they don’t know. Pick me - the one who’s been in the field for 35 years. #hirehawk

— HawkDunlap (@HawkDunlap) February 23, 2026

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I actually, purposely voted for this guy!

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think GOP is in big trouble. Judging by many on here they are clueless as to why

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Yep, the GOP in Texas has abandoned everyone under the age of 50. None of the cities in Texas feel Texan anymore. I feel like a foreigner now in public. This is all because of them.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think GOP is in big trouble. Judging by many on here they are clueless as to why

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Do tell…

The GOP has issues. The Democrats are just unpopular as general. It's basically just anti Trump.

If it wasn't anti-Trump it would be anti-Vance/Bush/Rubio/DeSantis/Any Republican Tom/Dick/Harry

To answer the OP, I do think Republicans are in trouble. As is typical in midterm elections, the party out of power tends to take a hit. But it is going to be magnified this time because like it or not the MN immigration flash point and Trump's continued poking the Left in the eye is going to make Dems super motivated to turnout. On the flip side, I do not perceive Republicans as nearly as motivated this cycle.

There is a lot of time between now and the general election. I think Texas stays "red", but if things stay as they are now, I think we see some slim margins.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think GOP is in big trouble. Judging by many on here they are clueless as to why

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Interesting stats coming from the GOP data folks.

Average age of those voting early for the R's is 66.

Average age of those voting early for the D's is 58.

Also of note, while folks are basing the voting on the black vote, they only make up 13 percent of the total electorate.

RGV voting is through the roof right now, mainly because a ton of local races are being decided in the primary. It won't translate into numbers in November.

Too many people have forgotten or have never experienced how miserable it can be when serially incompetent Dems run things.

That is a good idea.

The only other time I did something like this was 2008. I voted in the Democratic primary for Barack Hussein Obama thinking someone with that name would never be elected President. And I did not want Hillary on the ballot in November.

That did not go as planned.

It's texas

It's a lock and libdems are gonna get owned

Hth

I think I will vote Crockett today. If she was on the November ballot against Mickey Mouse, my money would be on Mickey.

Im Gipper said:

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HoustonAggie11 said:

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...What is there even early voting for right now?

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There is a new thing called "primaries"

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What are those? I just get mad that we keep having 2 bad options in November

nortex97 said:

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Remember this everyone.

Bookmark, download straight to your phone as a background image is you have to.

Primary voting DOES NOT equal anything much for the general election. https://t.co/mPRmCHfKCy

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) February 22, 2026

Early voting data can be interesting, but it's not predictive.

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Especially with open primaries. Its beyond dumb to have open primaries... but in Texas' case, you'd have to register by party to close the primaries here. Couldn't say right off what the pros and cons are of registering by party.

Murkowski is the embodiment of the risk of truly open primaries, but there are some openly Dem-communist folks running as Republicans today in places like North Carolina I have seen. A true 'jungle primary' (as California does) is also interesting; just put the top two in the general, but all are subject to manipulation imho.

My own father admitted he thought about crossing over to vote for Jazzy just for the laughs so I also think there is some bump for her from conservatives who see her as the 'weaker horse' but I dunno if it's statistically significant.

These are the primaries and a very, very low % of people vote in primaries. It has little to no bearing on voter turnout for the actual election. Only for POTUS election years with the caucuses and primaries for POTUS does anyone really care or show up.

Which the above is the biggest problem with the country. My uneducated best guess would be 50% of voters could not name one of their senators, 75% of voters could not name both, and 97% could not name their Representative.

That is how we end up with complete idiots in Congress and do-nothing traitors that make a career of being in Congress for 40-50+ years.

And make no mistake, it matters MUCH MUCH LESS who is POTUS for 4-8 years whether you hate Biden and love Trump or vice versa, POTUS is your least important vote at the federal level.

It is absolutely unbelievable the level and amount of incompetent idiots that are in Congress. Very few of them understand the Constitution and the purpose and intended scope and limits of the federal government, all RINOs included.

Republicans increased government spending, extended obummer care, pushing for war with Iran, blocking Epstein file release…. Real winning policies right there…

I'm a conservative to vote Republican though so many of them are not conservative, least of two evils.

The Rs in Congress are mostly limp wristed uniparty lackeys. They learned NOTHING from the 2024 election and the Trump W and have done almost nothing other than cheer on Trump regarding immigration.

They have done nothing to codify all the efforts of DOGE. They have done nothing to stop any and all funding to NGOs. They have done nothing to safeguard elections (see SAVE act stalled in Senate), they have done nothing to stop rampant foreign aid fraud, they have done nothing to reverse and codify all the BS Biden era dictates on gender and climate BS, etc., etc., etc.

I understand many things passed in the House May not pass the Senate, but they should still be doing it and if it fails in the Senate it would at least be in record that they tried to pass a law but Dems in the Senate killed it.

Unprincipled Rs continue to vote for fraud/waste/abuse and BS enabling immigration, transgender and climate change because there are other things in these massive bills that they do like. F that. If there are 99 things you like but just 1 item for $1 for any of the Dem pet projects or ideology than vote no.

There are two things that are absolutely 1000000% necessary to save our Republic. 1) term limits on Congress. 2) all bills passed by Congress should be one single line item and one only, not these 100,000 page monstrosities with billions of $$ of earmarks and funding for WiFi in Peru and trans clinics in Lithuania.

Quote:

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Since when is masked men arresting and killing citizens more liberty?

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Things like that happen when you interfere with legal law enforcement activity.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Republicans increased government spending, extended obummer care, pushing for war with Iran, blocking Epstein file release…. Real winning policies right there…

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Then vote democrat. No one here is telling you that you can't.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Republicans increased government spending, extended obummer care, pushing for war with Iran, blocking Epstein file release…. Real winning policies right there…

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Still better than Democrats

Its a weird mindset to try and be like that instead of wanting something better. Of course im not voting for democrats but I also want a real productive alternative instead of GOP crap.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Its a weird mindset to try and be like that instead of wanting something better. Of course im not voting for democrats but I also want a real productive alternative instead of GOP crap.

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It's a two party system. It's not changing. Ever. Pick your poison.