CEO of Anthropic says the "tsunami is close" Elon: "Yikes"

14,964 Views | 209 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by TexasRebel
AustinAg2K
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Dario's predictions have about the same hit rate as Elon. I'm pretty sure we're on year 3 of six months until all software development is done by AI.
Logos Stick
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I think this is the future:

GeorgiAg
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AG
Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....
4
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AG
I can't wait till the fear hits a fever pitch and the Democrats tell us they have a solution, but it's going to require more tax dollars to fix.
mickeyrig06sq3
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AG
Windy City Ag said:

Quote:

Guy trying to get his company a $1TN valuation is saying his product is revolutionary? Despite the fact they are hemorrhaging cash, infrastructure is uncertain, whether he's the ultimate winner or loser, etc. I'm shocked. I went on the Anthropic job board and saw them hiring a Salesforce Administrator, one of the several software companies right in Anthropic's crosshairs I thought. I might be dead wrong on AI, a tool that I use daily, but I'm over SWEs telling me the end is coming when they are smart, but often lack common sense.


The FT Alphaville blog had a hilarious analysis of the AI Hype Machine. I sharing a bit of it below.

https://ftav.substack.com/p/now-is-a-good-time-to-shut-up-about

I read this and then noted that two guys I know that are in digital marketing consulting field have inked deals recently with Microsoft, Meta, and a few venture backed AI platforms as all firms are confused why their is such an enormous lag in retail and even commercial uptake of AI offers.

If anything will cause the AI tsunami to crash, it will be the hyperscalers getting eaten alive by low cost fast followers who kill any sort of ROI they might achieve on the trillions of CapEx dollars so far thrown at this field. The economics of the industry are god awful and getting worse.

Quote:

Now is a good time to shut up about AI

" AI's early adopters are computer people, and computer people are often of a certain type. Clive Thompson, in his 2019 book Coders, profiles them as puzzle addicts who often struggle to empathise with normies. Their religion is efficiency for efficiency's sake. The pleasure they find in an elegant database merge solution may not be as widely shared as they assume.

The other type of AI evangelists are the opposite of computer people. They include Accenture chief executive Julie Sweet, a former lawyer, whose company is forcing senior management to use AI tools by threatening to withhold promotions. They also include George Osborne, a former politician and recent OpenAI hire, who told an intergovernmental AI Impact Summit in Delhi that by resisting AI's embrace, "you will be a weaker nation, a poorer nation, a nation whose workforce will be less willing to stay put".

AI's pushiest evangelists are either full-time conference types, talking airily about how workers need to adapt in undefined ways for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, or earnest computer people who lionise their own small contributions to the rising tide of slop. Valuelessness comes in stereo.

Most people don't have coder brain. The dominant workplace religion isn't efficiency, it's muddling through based on what worked last time. Employees tend to understand that generating more reports by autocomplete won't improve productivity, because they can see how much office time is spent in pursuit of MacGuffins. Bottlenecks to AI adoption are "caused simply by humans being human", says A16A research partner David Oks. Faster computers have made David Graeber's 2018 book Bull**** Jobs no less relevant.
Resistance to structural change won't be talked away. Enthusiasm has proved non-contagious. Threats are no kind of strategy. Hostility is already entrenched.
So where does that leave us? With ratioed nerds on one side and Davos dwellers on the other. In the middle is an unconvinced workforce, who may use chatbots for search and summarisation but have no immediate need to vibe an app or sudo a Pi HAT, and who would rather not feel coerced by their employer into training their own replacement.





The one difference that AI makes for the average user is that they don't need to be coders, they just need imagination. Like the AI art and videos being generated by people right now, most have 0% of the talent to do anything remotely close on their own, but AI will do it in minutes. Same with coding. Give it the right prompts, it spits out the code, good to go.
GeorgiAg
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AG
4 said:

I can't wait till the fear hits a fever pitch and the Democrats tell us they have a solution, but it's going to require more tax dollars to fix.

UBI

They already proposed it. Just pay people to sit around.
LMCane
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I think you are neglecting the fact that even if there is not a capitalist reason to continue with much of this

the AI will continue on their own at a certain point without needing companies to instruct them.

just like if you don't destroy the first T-1000 from Skynet

by the time you try to do it- it's too late.

two things could be occurring simultaneously
TheEternalOptimist
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CDUB98 said:

I would just like to say that I absolutely despise the software your company makes as it is one of the most painful things I've ever had to work with in my career.

There, I feel better.

I am not a developer. And I hear this all the time.

Many people concur with your analysis. And we are well aware of it.

TheEternalOptimist
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BTKAG97 said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

Yeah - being in Implementation and Operations, I can see the AI tsunami coming.

I am not in denial that it's coming. I just hope it holds off long for me to early retire early from the big blue German financial software company that I work for.

How do you plan to manage your finances? Most of which will be tied up in digital accounts (401K, IRA, Pension...)?

I have a plan for that and have a family member who is my financial planner.
ntxVol
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LMCane said:

I think you are neglecting the fact that even if there is not a capitalist reason to continue with much of this

the AI will continue on their own at a certain point without needing companies to instruct them.

just like if you don't destroy the first T-1000 from Skynet

by the time you try to do it- it's too late.

two things could be occurring simultaneously
Who's going to pay the electric bill?
500,000ags
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AG
But that is utterly meaningless, because although anyone can create, put those same tools in the hands of professional SWEs and PMs and their product in the same space would destroy any DIY option. There will be some DIY projects that kill it, but by and large they will be meaningless. Also, once scale is achieved for the "good" DIY startups, they will have to hire professional SWEs and PMs to further compete and reiterate. Legacy software might go away, but I look at the people Anthropic is hiring; Engineers, Finance & Strategy, Sales Reps, I guess I'm just confused how that isn't a good ole' fashioned software scale and GTM.
Logos Stick
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GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....



TheEternalOptimist
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txyaloo said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

Yeah - being in Implementation and Operations, I can see the AI tsunami coming.

I am not in denial that it's coming. I just hope it holds off long for me to early retire early from the big blue German financial software company that I work for. We are implementing it across the spectrum of our products in terms of operations, implementation, support, and even sales. Many of you here I assure you use the travel and expense platform I work on.

I have to say I 'concur' with a lot of the concerns about AI taking jobs... but I also don't think it's the end of the world.

For the near future, a lot of the learn to code folks need to learn to weld, plumb, or electrician skills. That might include me .

Are y'all working on an AI refresh of your portal? My last two employer's implementations have a UI from 2010. No clue if that's standard or if they're just stuck in the past/paying for a legacy product to keep costs down.

I can definitely see AI streamline that process.

There is a relatively new UI from last year. Provided that your company has allowed your instance to be migrated to it. Some companies didn't want to migrate.

It was NOT built by AI. But the developers almost certainly used AI to help write code. (common practice now).

There is not another UI on the upcoming prod road map - but I would guess whenever a new UI comes out, it will be even more influenced by AI. To what level I can't tell you. I am not a developer.
Troy91
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AG
GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting...

How do they know all of the things that your secretary does? Rule 1 invoked.
Logos Stick
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TheEternalOptimist said:

txyaloo said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

Yeah - being in Implementation and Operations, I can see the AI tsunami coming.

I am not in denial that it's coming. I just hope it holds off long for me to early retire early from the big blue German financial software company that I work for. We are implementing it across the spectrum of our products in terms of operations, implementation, support, and even sales. Many of you here I assure you use the travel and expense platform I work on.

I have to say I 'concur' with a lot of the concerns about AI taking jobs... but I also don't think it's the end of the world.

For the near future, a lot of the learn to code folks need to learn to weld, plumb, or electrician skills. That might include me .

Are y'all working on an AI refresh of your portal? My last two employer's implementations have a UI from 2010. No clue if that's standard or if they're just stuck in the past/paying for a legacy product to keep costs down.

I can definitely see AI streamline that process.

There is a relatively new UI from last year. Provided that your company has allowed your instance to be migrated to it. Some companies didn't want to migrate.

It was NOT built by AI. But the developers almost certainly used AI to help write code. (common practice now).

There is not another UI on the upcoming prod road map - but I would guess whenever a new UI comes out, it will be even more influenced by AI. To what level I can't tell you. I am not a developer.


Just watched an hour long interview with Boris Cherny, creator and head of the Claude Code team. He was previously one of the top software engs at Instagram. He said at the beginning of 2025, Claude was writing about 20% of the code for Claude. By mid year, 40%. With OPUS 4.6, just released, it's 100%.


btw, I don't mind using Concur, but I hated SAP. It was like a Rube Goldberg machine.
JB!98
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AG
CDUB98 said:

I would just like to say that I absolutely despise the software your company makes as it is one of the most painful things I've ever had to work with in my career.

There, I feel better.


I "concur" with you. Here is an actual photo of me filling out expense reports.


Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
1981 Monte Carlo
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GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....

What's the moral thing to do?
Signel
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AG
He is so right. I am literally doing things right now with bots that we wouldn't have been doing last year. People can't see the future right now because it hasn't been dreamed up yet.

Last year we were using free AI tools to write our own software. Now we have bots (Claude) that can do it all for us with just descriptions.

They added it to Kali linux now and it will attack your network automatically for testing. (https://cybersecuritynews.com/kali-linux-integrates-claude-ai/)

For every good thing that is invented, there will be just as many Tsunami's......

We might cure cancer, but have a complete meltdown of the world economy. I am not even sure what to warn people about anymore. Just know that we can't stop because China and other countries won't. The first to AGI wins the world.
500,000ags
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lol, are they sweating because they are threatened by AI, or are they sweating because over eager tech leaders are chomping at the bit thinking AI will replace their vendors?
Signel
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AG
500,000ags said:

lol, are they sweating because they are threatened by AI, or are they sweating because over eager tech leaders are chomping at the bit thinking AI will replace their vendors?

All of the above, sadly. They can't tell how it is going to fall out long term. They know that government will be too slow to react (like he says in the interview.)

It is going to be a ****show.
TexAgs91
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Rapier108 said:

The daily AI Armageddon thread.

Translation: That's not a tsunami. It's some mountains in the distance that weren't there before.
No, I don't care what CNN or Miss NOW said this time
Ad Lunam
GeorgiAg
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Troy91 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting...

How do they know all of the things that your secretary does? Rule 1 invoked.

Trust me, you don't want it.

When I was 35, the firm had a file clerk that was a cheerleader at a university. She was flirty too. It was awesome and terrible at the same time (I was happily married). Lotsa prayers to the Lord why have you brought this temptation upon me.

She ended up breaking up the engagement marriage of one of our summer law clerks.
GeorgiAg
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AG
1981 Monte Carlo said:

GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....

What's the moral thing to do?

I am not even considering it. I am going to listen to his sales pitch to see what's coming down the pike, but I could never do that to her. She lives paycheck to paycheck. And she has like 30 years experience so it can't replace that.

But if it were cheap enough, it would free her up to do more of the higher end stuff she does.
AggieVictor10
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AG
Learn to farm
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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American Hardwood said:

It amazes me how accurate sci-fi predicts these problems. Maybe this is the solution:


Before that can come about, we first have to have the Butlerian Jihad to destroy all thinking machines.
500,000ags
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AG
My thesis is that this isn't Armageddon, but going to displace 15-20% of tech workers into physical or gray-haired verticals. I think the transition is going to be rather bumpy though over the next 5 years. From society's perspective, I do worry about college grads over the next several years. Nothing is going to be easy for them.
GeeBee
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What happens when bitcoin gets hacked?
GeorgiAg
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500,000ags said:

My thesis is that this isn't Armageddon, but going to displace 15-20% of tech workers into physical or gray-haired verticals. I think the transition is going to be rather bumpy though over the next 5 years. From society's perspective, I do worry about college grads over the next several years. Nothing is going to be easy for them.

I can see the big law firms and CPA firms, etc... using AI to do a lot of what the secretaries and paralegals do now. All of these firms are going to need much fewer low-level employees. And fewer associates.

I think the percentage of displacement is going to be much, much higher. Where are these people going to go?
TexAgs91
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AG
Learn to Prompt
No, I don't care what CNN or Miss NOW said this time
Ad Lunam
1981 Monte Carlo
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GeorgiAg said:

500,000ags said:

My thesis is that this isn't Armageddon, but going to displace 15-20% of tech workers into physical or gray-haired verticals. I think the transition is going to be rather bumpy though over the next 5 years. From society's perspective, I do worry about college grads over the next several years. Nothing is going to be easy for them.

I can see the big law firms and CPA firms, etc... using AI to do a lot of what the secretaries and paralegals do now. All of these firms are going to need much fewer low-level employees. And fewer associates.

I think the percentage of displacement is going to be much, much higher. Where are these people going to go?

I hope someone can convince me why I should not think the sky is falling when it comes to AI. You replace millions of people, maybe tens of millions (maybe more eventually?)...what are these people going to do? How are they going to get by? Will there be millions of foreclosed homes?

Human beings are not meant to have to adapt/adjust/evolve this fast. It just feels like we are on an unprecedented crash course over the next 1-2 decades...where instability, widespread despair, and possibly rampant violence and lawlessness, is inevitable.

Most people didn't budget for a forced retirement age of 60, much less 25 or 30. I just don't see how this is not an extreme net negative for humankind in first world countries.

Someone convince me I am wrong, and that millions of jobs won't be lost over the next decade. Or that it's a good thing for millions to lose their jobs lol.
Mas89
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AG
Reminds me of the January 1, 2000 fear hype. Or Y2K as it was then called. Know a guy who spent years on a remote hill country ranch building a bunker and supplying it and the ranch to live off the grid for the rest of his life.
He died of old age a few years ago but his grandson still finds hidden stuff out there.
GeorgiAg
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AG
1981 Monte Carlo said:

GeorgiAg said:

500,000ags said:

My thesis is that this isn't Armageddon, but going to displace 15-20% of tech workers into physical or gray-haired verticals. I think the transition is going to be rather bumpy though over the next 5 years. From society's perspective, I do worry about college grads over the next several years. Nothing is going to be easy for them.

I can see the big law firms and CPA firms, etc... using AI to do a lot of what the secretaries and paralegals do now. All of these firms are going to need much fewer low-level employees. And fewer associates.

I think the percentage of displacement is going to be much, much higher. Where are these people going to go?

I hope someone can convince me why I should not think the sky is falling when it comes to AI. You replace millions of people, maybe tens of millions (maybe more eventually?)...what are these people going to do? How are they going to get by? Will there be millions of foreclosed homes?

Human beings are not meant to have to adapt/adjust/evolve this fast. It just feels like we are on an unprecedented crash course over the next 1-2 decades...where instability, widespread despair, and possibly rampant violence and lawlessness, is inevitable.

Most people didn't budget for a forced retirement age of 60, much less 25 or 30. I just don't see how this is not an extreme net negative for humankind in first world countries.

Someone convince me I am wrong, and that millions of jobs won't be lost over the next decade. Or that it's a good thing for millions to lose their jobs lol.

I think you are right. Greed will push people to use AI instead of people. We cannot retrain all these people this fast. And AI is not stopping. Elon is set to offer the Optimus robot for sale this year. Again, people will poo-poo it because it will start out being "dumb," but AI already learns at a very fast rate, 24/7 365. Right now, it needs human direction, but we are at the precipice where it does not.

Everyone thinks they can just learn plumbing or electrical. But someday there will be a robot plumber/electrician who will dispatch any time day or night in its robot vehicle. Good luck keeping up with that.

We are not prepared for the speed with which this is coming. And like others have said, we cannot stop because we cannot let China or Russia beat us to it.

Put me in the sky is falling camp.

Edit: This guy just listed where he sees immediate impacts:

Quote:

Claude Cowork just changed everything.

Industries that can now be fully automated:

Customer-Facing Operations
1. Customer support & ticket resolution
2. Sales outreach & follow-ups
3. Lead gen & CRM management
4. Travel booking & itineraries
5. Real estate paperwork & listings

Back Office & Admin
6. Data entry & bookkeeping
7. Invoice processing & AP/AR
8. Recruiting & resume screening
9. HR onboarding workflows
10. Expense reporting & approvals

Finance & Banking
11. COBOL mainframe operations
12. Legacy banking system maintenance
13. Transaction reconciliation
14. Loan processing paperwork
15. Compliance reporting

Insurance
16. Claims processing & adjudication
17. Policy administration
18. Underwriting document review

Healthcare
19. Medical billing & coding
20. Prior authorization requests
21. Patient scheduling & intake
22. EHR data migration

Legal & Compliance
23. Contract review & redlining
24. Due diligence document analysis
25. Regulatory filing preparation

Security & IT
26. Vulnerability scanning & triage
27. Security log analysis
28. Threat detection & alerting
29. Compliance audits (SOC2, HIPAA)
30. IT helpdesk tickets
31. System monitoring & alerting

Technical Operations
32. QA & software testing
33. Legacy code modernization (COBOLmodern)
34. Database migrations
35. API integration testing

Content & Marketing
36. Social media management
37. Content publishing workflows
38. SEO audits & optimization
39. Competitive research & monitoring

E-commerce & Logistics
40. Product listings & inventory
41. Order processing & tracking
42. Supplier communication

Yukon Cornelius
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AG
So the matrix?
gigemags-99
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AG
GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....


Just don't piss it off. It will plan your business travel and then program your plane to crash.
Farmer_J
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