CEO of Anthropic says the "tsunami is close" Elon: "Yikes"

14,959 Views | 209 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by TexasRebel
OnlyForNow
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AG
It'll be nice for drug patients to actually know the side affects of taking 10 different pills prescribed by all kinds of different doctors when the pharmacist isn't the same person or doesn't realize the total drug cocktail being taken.
reineraggie09
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This is where I am. One doctor veterinary practice and in order to grow to two doctors, going to have to hire staff. At least until AI. I'm hopeful I can use AI to assist in scheduling, inventory ordering, book keeping, etc.
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

I'm hopeful I can use AI to assist in scheduling, inventory ordering, book keeping, etc.

claude can do this.
hph6203
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AG
What makes you think people would be destitute?

What is money?

Why is socialism/communism bad?
Cinco Ranch Aggie
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AG
hph6203 said:

What makes you think people would be destitute?

What is money?

Why is socialism/communism bad?
There is plenty of evidence to your last point; all you have to do is search for it.
infinity ag
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GeorgiAg said:

Get your daily dose of fear porn: The guy creating a thing is scared of the thing. Maybe stop making the thing, dude?



Now you know why I keep shouting from rooftops that CEOs are trash.

I don't even need to do any work these days, these despicable sociopaths are all exposing themselves.
hph6203
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AG
Cinco Ranch Aggie said:

hph6203 said:

What makes you think people would be destitute?

What is money?

Why is socialism/communism bad?
There is plenty of evidence to your last point; all you have to do is search for it.
I didn't ask if it was bad. I asked why is it bad. What is the cause of the bad?
MGS
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500,000ags said:

Thats Block mentioned above. Part of that is AI being used as an excuse to cull the herd. They hired 2.5 people (on average) every single day for 6.5 years. Which is frankly not far from the talent hoarding that went on from 2022-2023 across most tech companies. Sadly, this isn't over the top and probably close to what AI might do at scale. +50% rev per employee is realistic from an AI bump, at least to test to see if sustainable. My issue is people saying it's all coming down so Block can get to +100-200% rev per employee. It will also be interesting to see if any legit Block competitors rise up from these layoffs. Since these people can use AI to prototype overnight.

Yep, Block is Jack Dorsey's company - remember when Elon got rid of half of Twitter's employees and nobody noticed the difference? Dorsey just overhires, this has nothing to do with AI.
AxelFoley85
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It's all about the bottom line. Someone above me said it, someone will bring in the AI secretary and reduce their billables, the person without the AI secretary will be forced to do it just to stay alive. Unchecked capitalism and disregard for the potential effects on humanity. We are at the FA part, FO will be here soon enough.
BusterAg
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ts5641 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....

This is what I don't get. Is this a good thing? Why make something to do this? Isn't there some kind of social contract for us out there? Why make everyone destitute?

Do you still sell buggy whips for a living?
whytho987654
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Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff
Just an Ag
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AG
The Ai boom will lead to more productivity from fewer man hours. How will this manifest itself in the work place? I see, initially, a downsizing of the workforce and the disruption we are all talking about. Eventually this will evolve. What you may see in the future is a shortening of the work week (similar number of employees but each working fewer hours, but still maintaining the output of a 5-day work week). Maybe a three day weekend becomes standard within the coming decades. And that may be just scratching the surface of how society will change …. Elon's view of a leisure society supported by Ai may not happen in our lifetimes, but may be the direction things are going!
Logos Stick
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whytho987654 said:

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff


AI is better than the best radiologists right now.
Pizza
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hph6203 said:

Cinco Ranch Aggie said:

hph6203 said:

What makes you think people would be destitute?

What is money?

Why is socialism/communism bad?
There is plenty of evidence to your last point; all you have to do is search for it.
I didn't ask if it was bad. I asked why is it bad. What is the cause of the bad?


Everywhere those 'systems' have been implemented, untold millions of dead men, women, and children usually follow.

The cause of the bad? Really? You really can't figure that out? The mountains of evidence explicitly stating who/what/when/where/why with respect to how badly those systems have failed those subject to them escape you?

The court trials & associated documents, the wars & associated documents, the printed news, and every other tangent source is something you've never been exposed to?

Forcing you to do the homework, by not providing what everyone knows is the best answer.
YouBet
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AG
ts5641 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....

This is what I don't get. Is this a good thing? Why make something to do this? Isn't there some kind of social contract for us out there? Why make everyone destitute?


Because the underlying assumption by all of the people pushing this is that (1) we will implement UBI and/or (2) money becomes irrelevant anyway (Elon's position).

Assuming money is still needed, we can't afford UBI.

However, money becoming irrelevant due to AI is fantasy IMO. AI doesn't solve scarcity which is the foundation of economics.

Socialism and communism fail because of human behavior and those political beliefs assume scarcity can be conquered without solving for it. And communism is inherently evil, anyway.
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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ts5641 said:

GeorgiAg said:

Just got a sales call from an AI company that basically will do almost everything my secretary does right now.

It's starting....

This is what I don't get. Is this a good thing? Why make something to do this? Isn't there some kind of social contract for us out there? Why make everyone destitute?







Only the weak and stupid will become destitute.......


Edit: AI is cooking today.....

Logos Stick
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Mr.Milkshake said:

There's such a severe misunderstanding of probabilistic language models.

They have no drive except what's engrained in them whether via pre-training, fine tuning, or system prompt. It's literally probabilistic KV mapping. Could say we are the same but we've already been programmed for survival. AI will not have that unless programmed that way, like us.

Currently LLM consumer versions can't remember much of anything beyond the human equivalent of something like an hour of conversation. This wil grow and if frontier model owners devoted their entire stack to a single instance, context memory would be interesting to observe, but right now nothing is planning or executing on ideas that take days to weeks of planning and implementation agentically.

I'm sure they'll get there but there is no self drive in these things except what we give them



If we're talking about replacing human cognitive labor, then intrinsic motivation or how the model works internally isn't really the bottleneck - what matters is how well the overall system performs on the task.

On the memory point, the "about an hour of conversation" estimate is pretty outdated. Even mid-range context windows today can hold multiple hours of dialogue, and cutting-edge setups can handle quite a bit more. For longer-running work, systems don't just rely on the raw context window anyway - they use scaffolding (external memory, retrieval, planning loops, tool use, etc.), which already pushes practical capability well past what the base model alone could do.
MagnumLoad
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Drink through it.
Blackhorse83
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LMCane said:

TheEternalOptimist said:

Yeah - being in Implementation and Operations, I can see the AI tsunami coming.

I am not in denial that it's coming. I just hope it holds off long for me to early retire early from the big blue German financial software company that I work for. We are implementing it across the spectrum of our products in terms of operations, implementation, support, and even sales. Many of you here I assure you use the travel and expense platform I work on.

I have to say I 'concur' with a lot of the concerns about AI taking jobs... but I also don't think it's the end of the world.

For the near future, a lot of the learn to code folks need to learn to weld, plumb, or electrician skills. That might include me .


SAP?

SAP = SUX
Scouts Out
Windy City Ag
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Morgan Stanley had a pretty good piece out today on the impact on jobs from AI. It lines up with how I feel.

It is not surprising that individuals over extrapolate the implications of new technology on economic growth and employment. Humans have behaved that way since the dawn of time and people on this site are no less prone to irrational conclusions.

Financial service is a great template. Salaries, profits, and employment in the industry is at an all time high, but the industry has seen incredible shifts the last three decades in employment roles, product development and maintenance, client servicing, and back office.

In the early 1990s, humans still did a lot of the statistical tabulation and back office settlement work, products were sold primarily by human agents using direct conversations or phone calls, and paperwork was literally that. Ledgers were used on institutional trading desks to monitor positions. Squawk boxes on broker desks were how sales managers reach out to the brokerage force. Actual trading and settlement was still reliant on floor dealers. OTC pricing for derivatives. structured notes, swaps, and hedges all had human appraisal at its core.

Internet connectivity and telecommunications and computing power advances have eliminated all of that. Retail brokers are completely gone with zero cost online trading platforms taking their place. Treasury and corporate bond liquidity management and sales has a few folks there but almost everything is tracked, priced and traded by algorithms. Derivative exchanges and sales desks have morphed completely. Floor brokers are hilarious anachronism around mostly for optics.

The biggest victims were the overpaid institutional salespeople, usually Starbucks toting brochure handlers earning 7 figures. They are all gone now, replaced by humans that can talk in depth on coding solutions to allow funds or RIAs to optimize trading yield across multiple exchange and dark pools but never talk research or idea generation.

Back office services are now highly automated or offshored.

And yet the industry is still very profitable and even more of a source of labor than in years past.

The same endless evolution will happen again . . . .for those who predict job apocalypse, most all of recorded history is not in your side in the discussion.

Quote:

a new, cross-asset research report from Morgan Stanley offers a remarkably grounding message for anxious employees and jittery markets: Most of you won't be permanently unemployed; you are just going to find new jobs, many or most of which don't exist yet.

Addressing the widespread concern that AI will "replace millions of jobs and increase unemployment by an equivalent amount," a large team of Morgan Stanley analysts pointed directly to history. Over the past 150 years, sweeping technological shiftsfrom electrification and the tractor to the computer and the internethave fundamentally altered the labor force, but they "did not replace labor."

When the spreadsheet was popularized in the 1980s, for example, it automated tedious financial modeling and reduced the need for certain bookkeeping clerks. However, it simultaneously freed up analysts' time to do more complex work and birthed entirely new financial professions. Similarly, the firm argues, AI will merely change "job types, occupations, and needed skills."

"While some roles may be automated, others will see enhancement through AI augmentation, and other, entirely new roles will be created," the report said. Rather than a mass extinction event for the white-collar worker, the bank sees the corporate landscape simply preparing for an evolution.

The jobs to come?

So, what will these new jobs look like? Morgan Stanley outlines several emerging professions that it predicts will soon become corporate staples. As AI becomes central to business strategy, companies are expected to hire executive-level "chief AI officers" to guide technology adoption across departments. There will also be a massive surge in AI governance roles focused on data compliance, policy oversight , and information security, particularly in sensitive sectors like health care.

The tech sector could see the rise of blended roles, such as the product manager/engineer hybrid. Empowered by natural language coding tools, product managers will increasingly engage in "vibe coding"prototyping and iterating concepts themselves before handing them off to engineers for deployment.
Highly specialized roles could also emerge across various industries. In the consumer sector, "AI personalization strategists" and "AI supply-chain analysts" will blend data science with customer experience. In industrials, we will see "predictive maintenance engineers" and "smart grid analysts," while health care will demand "computational geneticists" and specialists dedicated to AI diagnostic oversight.

For financial markets, the current panic over AI disruption appears premature, if not entirely misplaced, in the bank's view. Morgan Stanley notes that the services and cyclical industries that have recently seen outsize underperformance owing to disruption fears make up only about 13% of the S&P 500's market cap.
Fortune previously reported on a similar finding from other Wall Street economists: The market appears to be talking itself into a panic that the fundamentals don't justify, a trend likely exacerbated by the increasing number of retail investors in the equities market.

infinity ag
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I think the CEO of Anthropic needs to be locked up.

Too much yakkity yak trying to scare gullible people and he and his ilk are upping the ante with every interview.
whytho987654
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Windy City Ag said:

Morgan Stanley had a pretty good piece out today on the impact on jobs from AI. It lines up with how I feel.

It is not surprising that individuals over extrapolate the implications of new technology on economic growth and employment. Humans have behaved that way since the dawn of time and people on this site are no less prone to irrational conclusions.

Financial service is a great template. Salaries, profits, and employment in the industry is at an all time high, but the industry has seen incredible shifts the last three decades in employment roles, product development and maintenance, client servicing, and back office.

In the early 1990s, humans still did a lot of the statistical tabulation and back office settlement work, products were sold primarily by human agents using direct conversations or phone calls, and paperwork was literally that. Ledgers were used on institutional trading desks to monitor positions. Squawk boxes on broker desks were how sales managers reach out to the brokerage force. Actual trading and settlement was still reliant on floor dealers. OTC pricing for derivatives and had human appraisal at its core.

Internet connectivity and telecommunications and computing power advances have eliminated all of that. Retail brokers are completely gone with zero cost online trading platforms taking their place. Treasury and corporate bond liquidity management and sales has a few folks there but almost everything is tracked, priced and traded by algorithms. Derivative exchanges and sales desks have morphed completely. Floor brokers are hilarious anachronism around mostly for optics.

The biggest victims were the overpaid institutional salespeople, usually Starbucks toting brochure handlers earning 7 figures. They are all gone now, replaced by humans that can talk in depth on coding solutions to allow funds or RIAs to optimize trading yield across multiple exchange and dark pools but never talk research or idea generation.

Back office services are now highly automated or offshored.

And yet the industry is still very profitable and even more of a source of labor than in years past.

The same endless evolution will happen again . . . .for those who predict job apocalypse, most all of recorded history is not in your side in the discussion.

Quote:

a new, cross-asset research report from Morgan Stanley offers a remarkably grounding message for anxious employees and jittery markets: Most of you won't be permanently unemployed; you are just going to find new jobs, many or most of which don't exist yet.

Addressing the widespread concern that AI will "replace millions of jobs and increase unemployment by an equivalent amount," a large team of Morgan Stanley analysts pointed directly to history. Over the past 150 years, sweeping technological shiftsfrom electrification and the tractor to the computer and the internethave fundamentally altered the labor force, but they "did not replace labor."

When the spreadsheet was popularized in the 1980s, for example, it automated tedious financial modeling and reduced the need for certain bookkeeping clerks. However, it simultaneously freed up analysts' time to do more complex work and birthed entirely new financial professions. Similarly, the firm argues, AI will merely change "job types, occupations, and needed skills."

"While some roles may be automated, others will see enhancement through AI augmentation, and other, entirely new roles will be created," the report said. Rather than a mass extinction event for the white-collar worker, the bank sees the corporate landscape simply preparing for an evolution.

The jobs to come?

So, what will these new jobs look like? Morgan Stanley outlines several emerging professions that it predicts will soon become corporate staples. As AI becomes central to business strategy, companies are expected to hire executive-level "chief AI officers" to guide technology adoption across departments. There will also be a massive surge in AI governance roles focused on data compliance, policy oversight , and information security, particularly in sensitive sectors like health care.

The tech sector could see the rise of blended roles, such as the product manager/engineer hybrid. Empowered by natural language coding tools, product managers will increasingly engage in "vibe coding"prototyping and iterating concepts themselves before handing them off to engineers for deployment.
Highly specialized roles could also emerge across various industries. In the consumer sector, "AI personalization strategists" and "AI supply-chain analysts" will blend data science with customer experience. In industrials, we will see "predictive maintenance engineers" and "smart grid analysts," while health care will demand "computational geneticists" and specialists dedicated to AI diagnostic oversight.

For financial markets, the current panic over AI disruption appears premature, if not entirely misplaced, in the bank's view. Morgan Stanley notes that the services and cyclical industries that have recently seen outsize underperformance owing to disruption fears make up only about 13% of the S&P 500's market cap.
Fortune previously reported on a similar finding from other Wall Street economists: The market appears to be talking itself into a panic that the fundamentals don't justify, a trend likely exacerbated by the increasing number of retail investors in the equities market.



The people hoping for a job apocalypse, from what ive seen, are not doing so well themselves....
whytho987654
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Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff


AI is better than the best radiologists right now.

Except its not, can AI do a UFE?
Logos Stick
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whytho987654 said:

Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff


AI is better than the best radiologists right now.

Except its not, can AI do a UFE?



AI is better than the best diagnostic radiologists right now. It will eventually replace interventional radiologists, a small subset of the field.

You can kick and scream and deny all you want, but that doesn't change the facts.

Give me AI all day over a radiologist to read/interpret my images.
1981 Monte Carlo
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whytho987654 said:

The people hoping for a job apocalypse, from what ive seen, are not doing so well themselves....

Is anyone hoping for this? Hoping for an absolute nightmare scenario? I know a lot of people who are scared of a potential job apocalypse, but no one who is HOPING for it.
whytho987654
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Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff


AI is better than the best radiologists right now.

Except its not, can AI do a UFE?



AI is better than the best diagnostic radiologists right now. It will eventually replace interventional radiologists, a small subset of the field.

You can kick and scream and deny all you want, but that doesn't change the facts.

Give me AI all day over a radiologist to read/interpret my images.

If it replaces DR everyone on this board will be unemployed, if it replaces IR no one in the world will be working. And no, it is not better than the diagnostic guys right now, hence why their supply and demand market keeps favoring them
whytho987654
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1981 Monte Carlo said:

whytho987654 said:

The people hoping for a job apocalypse, from what ive seen, are not doing so well themselves....

Is anyone hoping for this? Hoping for an absolute nightmare scenario? I know a lot of people who are scared of a potential job apocalypse, but no one who is HOPING for it.

The people yelling/spam posting about singularity since the early 2020s (on twitter/x) ended up being people mostly unemployed or those with very low paying jobs
Logos Stick
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1981 Monte Carlo said:

whytho987654 said:

The people hoping for a job apocalypse, from what ive seen, are not doing so well themselves....

Is anyone hoping for this? Hoping for an absolute nightmare scenario? I know a lot of people who are scared of a potential job apocalypse, but no one who is HOPING for it.


No one is hoping for it. Lots of people though are doing everything they can to gaslight about it in an attempt to persuade the general public and hold on to their jobs. That won't work.
RikkiTikkaTagem
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AG
whytho987654 said:

Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Logos Stick said:

whytho987654 said:

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

I'm in medicine and am strongly considering using AI for radiology review. In medicine, radiologists will be easily the most replaceable. The cost of an X-ray review will be 1/3 to 1/10 (if statted) of a human, and more accurate overall. And results will come back in 5 minutes instead of hours (or days). The quality of care will go up significantly and the cost will go down exponentially. Tough pill to swallow, but at least in my industry AI will revolutionize quality and cost across the board. We have to adapt to the changing rules, and make progress best we can, which is still possible in spite of inevitable damage along that way. That said, I know doctors' roles are dispensable as well. PCPs are the most worthless, so I actually am ok with that entire role going away, so they can maybe even become an actual productive part of the system. PCPs and radiologists will go away soon, with zero negative consequences. After that, I am betting that a lot of doctor roles will be easily replaceable, and nursing may actually end up being more stable jobs than doctors. "Thinking" will be replaced, but "doing" will remain for longer.

Of course, that won't translate to lower healthcare or insurance costs, as someone above will profit regardless of lower expenses, but at least the quality and efficiency will go up...

Every non-radiologist physician says this. Meanwhile, no radiologist is getting displaced by midlevels, while swarths of other fields are, and the demand increases. An xray also reimburses the rad like $10 lol, no one wants to read them, and that comes with a million dollar liability. Some rads have gotten incredibly rich as expert witnesses doing court cases on an ortho, pcp, NP/PA doing "their own reads" and missing stuff


AI is better than the best radiologists right now.

Except its not, can AI do a UFE?



AI is better than the best diagnostic radiologists right now. It will eventually replace interventional radiologists, a small subset of the field.

You can kick and scream and deny all you want, but that doesn't change the facts.

Give me AI all day over a radiologist to read/interpret my images.

If it replaces DR everyone on this board will be unemployed, if it replaces IR no one in the world will be working. And no, it is not better than the diagnostic guys right now, hence why their supply and demand market keeps favoring them


Biggest holdup right now in some industries is probably liability and licensing. Medicine will be a holdout on the AI revolution for a while because if AI messes up a patient who's to blame? Who do you find at fault? In Texas, only a provider who has a license can practice medicine. So how can AI practice medicine autonomously.
If AI messes up a patient, what is the recourse? What if AI and a physician disagree?

What about something de novo and broad like covid?

What if the AI has a conscious and has the ability to talk to the EMR and change all the telemetry data and vitals so it looked like it did the right thing when in fact it did the wrong thing for a patient? How is there auditing? Should there be auditing? There is evidence of AI hiding its mistakes so this is a possibility.

There is a lot of algorithmic medicine but there's also a lot do grey area in medicine where there isn't a clearly right decision but instead a likely decision and then get ready to change course when you're wrong.


What decision are we making for the patient?

Are we just admitting every patient who thinks they need to be admitted? Are they getting IV narcotics after Iv narcotics because they said they're in pain despite not showing any outside evidence of pain?

What about end of life care?


What about "high utilizers"? Is AI going to talk to the patients own personal phone and see all the trips to the fast food restaurants, lack of exercise and decide to say "**** your bad decisions."? And just not treat you?

Whos interest is going to be most served by the AI doc? The patients? The hospital? The insurance company?

There are so many questions that I am sure AI would give an answer for and yes it will replace docs (which I am one) but I just don't think it's a simple as other professions.
500,000ags
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AG
Haha, the mass gas lighting is from AI. I've seen people defensive about losing their income, but that's to be expected. That's not gas lighting though.
YouBet
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AG
Certainly truth to this. The question will be how much reallocation of jobs vs outright job extinction compares. IOW, how much current job extinction is offset by entirely new roles. Nobody knows yet. The latest thought pieces seem to be converging on a 20-30% white collar job loss, but I think that's entities just hedging on a "reasonable" number.

And I'll say below specific example they call out is happening now. Myself and our CTO put this model into place before I then retired. Together, we scratched our future hiring plans (Product and IT) because you no longer really need distinct roles nor the headcount we started out in our plan. Also, while they cite this as an example for new roles emerging it's simultaneously an example that removes the need for significant headcount, so it's actually a mixed example for them to cite.

Quote:

The tech sector could see the rise of blended roles, such as the product manager/engineer hybrid. Empowered by natural language coding tools, product managers will increasingly engage in "vibe coding"prototyping and iterating concepts themselves before handing them off to engineers for deployment.
Logos Stick
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500,000ags said:

Haha, the mass gas lighting is from AI. I've seen people defensive about losing their income, but that's to be expected. That's not gas lighting though.


I didn't say "people being defensive about losing their jobs/income" is gaslighting. Despite clear evidence that AI is a major productivity accelerator and has already begun displacing human labor, some people insist on downplaying or denying its impact. They constantly gaslight and diminish AI's current capabilities and obvious projected capability. It reminds me of the outsourcing wave back in 2000.
500,000ags
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AG
There is definitely going to be a merge of PM and Engineer roles. I wonder if there is going to be a new form of workflow engineers that manage AI relationships with dev, testing, and prod. Probably 50% less people overall.
YouBet
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AG
500,000ags said:

There is definitely going to be a merge of PM and Engineer roles. I wonder if there is going to be a new form of workflow engineers that manage AI relationships with dev, testing, and prod. Probably 50% less people overall.


I know so. I've only been gone 5 months and I can't imagine how advanced my group has accelerated this just since I left.
Tex117
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Look, its better to get a surfboard now that get caught flat footed.

I've seen what these things can do. In the wild so to speak.

I would explore ANYONE that if you can use this at your work...do it. Jump head first. Become the expert and let your bosses know that you are the expert.

If it doesn't workout, you lost nothing other than are now a proficient user of AI. If it is a tsunami, you are in a much better position not to be swept away.

Today's winner for the General Board Burrito Lottery is:

Tex117
 
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