nortex97 said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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nortex97 said:

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This is a red flag.

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Ahmari is a leading figure in the Post Liberal movement, of which Vance has aligned himself with.

Trying to tie this to some sort of Persian blood feud, is a bit much.

Remember, Sohab converted to Catholicism (same as Vance).

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Maybe, but I just don't think this is a 'good' guy, and his presence as an advisor to Vance is highly disappointing, to say the least, reflecting very poorly on JD Vance' judgment more than anything else imho. I don't really care about his denomination/personal religion (nor JD's, to be frank).

His take on Pahlavi is among the least 'problematic' views to me as the latter is pretty much irrelevant absent a revolution, but he's clearly been a loud mouthpiece for the IRGC and has openly criticized the administration/war, in addition to innumerable other takes which I'd classify as 'idiotic' more than anything else.

Sohrab Ahmari went on Megyn Kelly right after the February Iran strikes to declare his strong opposition to the war. He claimed Israel had dragged the U.S. into it and attacked the Trump administration for breaking its campaign promises.

These reports that he has access to the… pic.twitter.com/b4pulxEXZp

— Justin (@JustinUSA) June 26, 2026

Anyway, some good news.

BREAKING: Lebanese MPs celebrate the agreement between Israel and Lebanon, directly calling out Hezbollah as the root of all problems between the two countries.

A new Middle East is on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/yyk3XXrPgO

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) June 27, 2026

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I disagree with the Post Liberals approach, and I think JD is firmly in that camp.

As evidenced by this…

"Word has spread around town that Vance has been regularly talking to Trita Parsi, the Swedish-Iranian co-founder of the Quincy Institute. The anti-interventionist think tank, which is funded by Charles Koch, bills itself as “transpartisan”https://t.co/DjhZO9iyHw

— Nick Field (@nick_field90) June 25, 2026

I'm a guy that doesn't like the war nor JDs foreign policy views (which I realize puts me on a very small island)…

I'm just trying to say that Ahmari is a legit conservative writer, who has views i disagree with, but Vance openly chats with (along with Rod Dreher, Patrick Deneen, et al).

Re: Lebanon…I saw the post…are those Lebanese Christians? Because we need Shia MPs on board with this lickety split.

I don't really understand the term/label 'post liberal' so I can't critique that really. And I understand the value of having inputs from folks who disagree etc., not surrounding oneself with low-IQ sycophants such as, oh, Jimmy Carter Kamala Harris and Barack Obama notably did.

Publicly, JD Vance has continued to support Trump's policies/decisions to my mind, and reading the tea leaves does concern me about his private thoughts/positions, but it's tough for me to really coherently identify what those are.

Eliminatus said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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The Singapore container ship hit by a single / drone "projectile" with no casualties and minor damage?

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The one that caused us to blow up more **** in Iran, make a farce of this "ceasefire", and Trump to make statements about it? Yeah, that one. Why are you downplaying it? Do we need to have a full sinking with massive casualties for it to be real for you?

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Not downplaying it but no need to overplay it either. Yes, we responded though it would not have surprised me had we "let this one slide" as well.

BTW just heard a blurb that a crude tanker has now also been struck.

I don't think we need any justification to go back to bombing the **** out of Iran. My point was that there is no need to overplay what was indeed a minor incident in itself. Nothing more, nothing less.

nortex97 said:

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I don't really understand the term/label 'post liberal' so I can't critique that really. And I understand the value of having inputs from folks who disagree etc., not surrounding oneself with low-IQ sycophants such as, oh, Jimmy Carter Kamala Harris and Barack Obama notably did.

Publicly, JD Vance has continued to support Trump's policies/decisions to my mind, and reading the tea leaves does concern me about his private thoughts/positions, but it's tough for me to really coherently identify what those are.

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Does JD know what his ideas are????

Anywho… Post-liberalism is a broad political philosophy that argues that classical liberalism's emphasis on individual autonomy, free markets, and neutral government has weakened the institutions…such as family, community, religion, and national identity…that give society stability and purpose.

This has cropped up in the intellectual milieu of what folks call the New Right (National Conservatives, Popular Conservatives, Intergralists, and others).

Probably, worth a thread in its own right at some point

I think we just divide into America Best / First Party versus the Hate America Party.

I think we just divide into America Best / First Party versus the Hate America Party.

Is the strait open now or closed?

Depends.

Good optimistic piece, though I don't know this author.

Iran got played, again.
😏 https://t.co/jpPD4g98rD

— Avi Avidan (@avavidan) June 27, 2026

Nice quick read. Per quick lookup he's a pro-Israel commentator so that must be considered.

But he lays out some solid logic on the precariousness for Iran with the proxies and their need to get out from under the US lockdown.

The same circumstances apply to all their proxies. May also be why we have not (quite thankfully) seen anything here domestically and folks should pray that remains so.

BTW, thanks for clear links and acknowledging the source of the underlying information. You always do a nice job of that and i am certain that i am not alone in that appreciation.

flown-the-coop said:

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I think we just divide into America Best / First Party versus the Hate America Party.

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We do need to have Sep thread on this.

I believe the Tucker wing on the right and the Zohran wing on the left certainly fall into that camp…but for me theirs a ton of nuance about the increasing factionalism in the parties.

A thread like that will be hot but is needed to clean up some other threads I think.

Terminology has really become difficult. Labels misapplied and up is often down, down is often sideways, sideways means parallel and a parallax never touches grass.

But seriously, I'd love a thread that attempts a true Vnguyen diagram of political and social beliefs.

flown-the-coop said:

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A thread like that will be hot but is needed to clean up some other threads I think.

Terminology has really become difficult. Labels misapplied and up is often down, down is often sideways, sideways means parallel and a parallax never touches grass.

But seriously, I'd love a thread that attempts a true Vnguyen diagram of political and social beliefs.

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This isn't going to go well if we can't even agree on the spelling of "Venn"

;-)

…regardless…

The Republican Party is likely dividing into at least 4-5 major components…and the Democrats are wrestling with likely a similar number. However, the structure of the American political system, and the institutional strength of both parties makes it difficult for them to split off into any coherent subgroup.

I thought my spelling was rather creative. What's insane is people get so focused on the appearance of a word causes angst either no regard to the context or intent.

I *******ized a proper name and culturally appropriated the Vietnamese yet context and knowledge of pronunciation allowed the meaning to come through.

If people spent less time on the gotchyas of inconsequential details (some squabbled over Trump's description for a length of vandalism) and more time considering meaning and context, then we would have a more productive society.

These comments exclude BigRobSA, for his true spirit requires him to call out spending, government overreach and grammatical errors and misspellings.

AGHouston11 said:

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Is the strait open now or closed?

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Schrödinger's strait.

IRGC-aligned Iraqi officials appear to be...under arrest this weekend. Shia-Sunni split in Iraq is quite intense, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. (I don't really consider either/any of the sides 'good guys' but it is what it is.)

BREAKING: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi appears to have launched a coup d'état against elements within the Iraqi government in an effort to purge and arrest government officials with ties to the Islamic regime of Iran. Iraqi news media are claiming that the U.S. government is… pic.twitter.com/NFEDMs4f1s

— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) June 28, 2026

here we have Ahmari parroting Iran "problems" on peace in Lebanon-Israel deal.

Just so everyone understands what’s going on here: Sohrab Ahmari, who is a longtime personal friend and travel buddy of JD Vance, and who was privy to the development of the farce MOU that is falling apart, is counter-signaling Trump’s deal to try to bring peace between Israel… https://t.co/qqX4jPQQAO

— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) June 28, 2026

MOU=DOA POS

Possible Trump knew that turd would go nowhere and is just using it as a strategy of "Iran won't even take the carrot, so here's the stick"?

This non-deal MOU was hot garbage from the start and everyone knows it!

They have no desire for peace.

Iran has no choice but to obtain a nuclear bomb to remove the military option against the country during the transition to a new world order, IRGC-affiliated Fars News wrote in a commentary on Sunday.

The outlet argued that Iran must achieve nuclear deterrence to gain what it…

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) June 28, 2026

Stop believing these religious fanatics are not radicalized. They will lie at every turn to advance jihad.

“The coolest thing about the progress we’ve made over the last few weeks is that you’re seeing people within the Iranian system—senior leadership, even IRGC officials—say, ‘You know what? We recognize the way that we’ve done business with the US for 47 years is a mistake. Let’s… https://t.co/h3yfnhyLVL

— Shay Khatiri (@ShayKhatiri) June 28, 2026

Stepped away for a few days. Sounds like nothing has changed. Iran still demanding that they will charge tolls and do nothing to give up nuclear ambitions.

I see there was a peace agreement framework struck by Lebanon and Israel but to surprise of no one Hezbollah rejected it. Hopefully, Lebanon and Israel team up at this point and eradicate them.

The irony is that now that Iran is overplaying their hand and won't just take the W, Trump could probably drum up support from the American people and our allies to deal forcefully with Iran. But he already squandered any chance of that with his ineffective sound and fury operation and the relentless bullying of all the countries and people who weren't on board with the poorly thought out first strategy.

So now the Iranians will do whatever they want and Trumps options are basically to lob some missiles in response and hope they stop at some point.

Agreed on Iran overplaying their hand at this point. Though I do believe their leadership is fractured. I suspect you've got diplomats like Aragochi who see an opportunity for peace and moving on, and you've got members of the IRGC that are taking the opportunity to push for more and antagonize the peace process - particularly because of Israel still attacking in Lebanon, but also because they don't like the US pushing ships through the strait without their 'permission,' even if it's supposed to be free passage.

AGHouston11 said:

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Trump had no Plan B.

He had plan A that was always going ahead of schedule until it wasn't. He had already started dunking on everyone that told him it was a bad idea.

Now he's on Plan C which is to get things back to where everything was before Plan A.

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You think Trump plans to put everything back to where it was before we attacked Iran. Do you think Trump plans to put Iran's nuclear program back to where it was with enough 60% enriched uranium to make 9 nuclear weapons after further enrichment, give them 90% of their missiles back including ballistic missiles that can reach Europe and our base at Diego Garcia and replenish their drones we have blown up? Obviously Trump is not going to do that. Wherever this thing ends up, Iran's ability to get nuclear weapons and attack us and the world has been severely hampered. And that's a great thing! Additionally, Chevron et al, in time, will be able to increase oil production enough in Venezuela to make Iranian oil production irrelevant and additional pipelines and other infrastructure can be built for other Gulf States to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Ideally I wish Trump would blowup Kharg Island and eliminate Iran from selling any oil and just break the Ayatollah's regime permanently

pfo said:

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AGHouston11 said:

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Trump had no Plan B.

He had plan A that was always going ahead of schedule until it wasn't. He had already started dunking on everyone that told him it was a bad idea.

Now he's on Plan C which is to get things back to where everything was before Plan A.

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You think Trump plans to put everything back to where it was before we attacked Iran. Do you think Trump plans to put Iran's nuclear program back to where it was with enough 60% enriched uranium to make 9 nuclear weapons after further enrichment, give them 90% of their missiles back including ballistic missiles that can reach Europe and our base at Diego Garcia and replenish their drones we have blown up? Obviously Trump is not going to do that. Wherever this thing ends up, Iran's ability to get nuclear weapons and attack us and the world has been severely hampered. And that's a great thing! Additionally, Chevron et al, in time, will be able to increase oil production enough in Venezuela to make Iranian oil production irrelevant and additional pipelines and other infrastructure can be built for other Gulf States to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Ideally I wish Trump would blowup Kharg Island and eliminate Iran from selling any oil and just break the Ayatollah's regime permanently

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We are back to talking about the dust.
Has the dust changed any since Midnight Hammer?
And when are we obtaining this dust?

The dust hasn't changed since Midnight Hammer, which shows both the success of Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury.

Did you think it showed something else?

Do you think it needs to be out by a certain date? What date would that be?

Also, Trump has said since the first days that one option is to leave it where it is and keep eyes on it.

Somehow people now think it needs to be locked in Fort Knox by June 30th and if not it means Trump surrendered to Iran.

The problem is the IRGC is still in power. They will have a much easier time reconstituting than the nuclear dust.

Blow Hezbollah off the face of the earth.

Wipe out ALL IRGC leadership. Talk to them is cheap. ALL liars.

No, like the IDF has done with Hamas, no more mowing grass. You burn the grass to and through its roots, you flood the soil with roundup, you scrape it, douse it again then put layers of weed barrier down.

Same needs to be done to all other PLO offshoots, to the Muslim brotherhood, to ISIS and to the IRGC.

If you take up arms in the name of Allah you will be incinerated. Period.

Only then can there be peace.

Flown-the-coop - sooo true!

Iran is finally sending one of its OWN tankers back there but it hasn’t arrived yet. Probably going to sell to China again cause no one else wants it

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) June 28, 2026

IRGC isn't swimming in cash as some propagandists claim, imho. But:

Here's a look at the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.

Inbound tankers were very limited with one group of tankers that got through the Oman route under US escorts.

Outside of this group, no visible AIS tankers went through the Oman route.

The other inbound tankers are… pic.twitter.com/6g7IRYu1ht

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 29, 2026

AGHouston11 said:

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If it hasn't moved since Midnight Hammer then what was the imminent threat? It's a rhetorical question.

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No matter how many times you try to force "imminent threat", that was never part of the initial discussion. It was always opportunity and capacity of Iran to stave off our ability to remove any imminent threat if they continued down their stated path. As much as you really, really want to produce some sort of misleading into war or lies or failure, you have nothing to go on here, as per usual, without reframing the entire circumstances to begin with.

Side note: I just finished up Terminal List: Dark Wolf last night which is f'ing awesome and highly relevant to this topic.

Talk is cheap to Iran IRGC leadership. Delay tactic to rearm. IRGC leadership must be eliminated for us to have success with our mission.

The same here in our country. Eliminate all islamis/jihadist organizations.

Iman, "Muslims are in America purely for the sake of Allah. Islam will be in every household"

Iman, "America is the land of Allah. The religion of Islam will enter every household. Every land of the world is the land of Allah".

9/11, was a distraction for the islamist/jihadist for their ground invasion into our country. We are in a war for our freedom, Constitution and Western Civilization.