*******The Official Houston Texans 2022: AW Thread************

366,804 Views | 3999 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by IrishAg
The Porkchop Express
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Carter was driving behind the cars that were racing in Athens, saw one lose control, crash into 2 telephone poles and saw one of his teammates ejected from the car and hit the pavement like a brick, and kept on driving, then lied to the cops and said he heard the crash from an apartment complex a mile away.

We've all ****ed up in life, but I don't want the Texans' giving that guy several million dollars a few months later.
AgsMyDude
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gougler08
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Is that just because we were so bad that adding anyone with a pulse markedly makes the team better?
IrishAg
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gougler08 said:

Is that just because we were so bad that adding anyone with a pulse markedly makes the team better?
That and we're making smart decisions with the way we're spending money. We're not getting bogged down with a bunch of back load deals that will come due when it's time to start handing out big contracts to the rookies we're building around.
Ag_07
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Yes Nick and the front office have had a great offseason.

I like that they're improving the team with a concise plan/vision while at the same time not throwing big money around at some of the higher profile FAs that would be wasting years here while they're still not fully rebuilt yet.

They're walking before they run.
. . .
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Cartographer
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Finish a driving course? Is that defensive driving or the one you need to get a license?

Context matters folks.
Ag_07
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As far as Carter is concerned I'd be more worried about his recent on-field struggles at his pro day than I would be his off field issues.

Which is odd because before the pro day it was the opposite, but you can't ignore gaining 9 lbs in two weeks, not lifting or running a 40, and not being able to compete drills that he did participate in.
Bobby Jimbo
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Texans should draft the best ~6'5, 275LB edge available at #12 (Wilson, Van Ness, Murphy). Maybe consider JSN if we draft Stroud #2. We can't risk drafting another headache with Carter.
Max Power
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Ag_07 said:

Yes Nick and the front office have had a great offseason.

I like that they're improving the team with a concise plan/vision while at the same time not throwing big money around at some of the higher profile FAs that would be wasting years here while they're still not fully rebuilt yet.

They're walking before they run.
We have plenty of cap space and also have been smart about it. Short term deals for free agents. The Mason trade is a big upgrade on the o-line for us. Sometimes a team does a bunch of moves that are also impact the long term, see Jacksonville from last year who I believe spent the most money in the history of NFL free agency. As a result they lost Taylor in free agency to KC, you can't keep everyone.

I'm really curious what they do about Tunsil. He is a true LT, the reason I bring that up is KC brought in Brown to play LT and he was a RT in Baltimore. Taylor played RT for Jacksonville and he's getting $20MM/year from KC to play LT. Tunsil gets a lot of false starts but he also does his job well. If they traded him what's the next target? I'd personally prefer to keep an experienced LT than trade him away and hope you can find a replacement at a cheaper cost. I say get an extension done with Tunsil and get ready for the draft. There's plenty of guys I wish we gave a look to, but at the same time I'm not mad at what we've done. Only thing I wish is that we found a way to keep Okoronkwo. But right now it's been a net positive on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
3 Toed Pete
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On resigning Tunsel or extending him, Nick and Demeco have to decide if he will be self-motivated after signing a long-term contract. There are some question marks there. I'm pretty comfortable with whatever they decide but would lean to trading him, depending on what they can get, of course.
AgsMyDude
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gougler08 said:

Is that just because we were so bad that adding anyone with a pulse markedly makes the team better?


Like Irish said we aren't just splurging but filling gaps with guys that can be serviceable.
Max Power
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Ag_07 said:

As far as Carter is concerned I'd be more worried about his recent on-field struggles at his pro day than I would be his off field issues.

Which is odd because before the pro day it was the opposite, but you can't ignore gaining 9 lbs in two weeks, not lifting or running a 40, and not being able to compete drills that he did participate in.
McShay went on a deep dive on the first draft podcast this week about Carter. He did indicate he's had character concerns about him from what he's heard at Georgia. He's late for meetings, doesn't practice hard either. He also said that he 100% shows up at the games. The pro day stuff I'm guessing is probably impacted by stress related to what he's been dealing with on a personal level. Guys tend to show up at the combine in the best shape of their lives, a guy that weighed 314 at the combine showing up at 323 doesn't concern me. He gained less than 3% of his body weight, not a big deal IMO.

If he's there at 12 I think Ryans is the kind of coach that would be good for him. But I don't think he's going to be there at 12 regardless. He's still going top 10, I think he goes at 5 to Seattle, Pete Carroll has no issues taking a guy with potential character concerns. If he's there then Seattle runs to the podium with that pick. He's still likely the first defensive player taken in the draft. I think LV is going to pick up the phone and try to trade with Arizona to get in front of Indy at 3.

Also of note McShay went fairly deep on the WRs that are likely to be taken in the first round. Johnston, Addison, JSN, Flowers, and Hyatt. His interpretation of Johnston is that he's a bigger version of Hopkins, only real knock on him seems to be his route running, but he's not asked to do much in that regard at TCU, he's so physically gifted he can rely on that over precision. Addison is the opposite, but Addison isn't a no 1 receiver. JSN is the most well rounded, but nothing he does is exceptional, which is going to limit his ceiling to being at best a no 2 WR. Flowers and Hyatt sounded more like no 2 or 3 receivers. Johnston was the only one he sounded like had the potential to be a no 1 but he was hesitant on that.

The more he talked about the WRs the less impressed I was. It made me believe that our best options at 12 are offensive line or defensive line prospects. He was really big on Lukas Van Ness from Iowa, even though he's never started a game, but he played starter reps, he came just short of saying that it's a Ferentz issue and not a Van Ness issue. Van Ness came late to football, was more of a hockey player growing up, still has the ability to be molded into the player he has the potential to be. He can play outside or inside the OT so he's got some flexibility.

If we absolutely have to get a receiving option in the first round it might be better to consider Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer at TE. He was also big on both of those guys.

IMO dark horse position at 12 would be cb. There's some really nice prospects in the draft. Stingley on one side is a great start, a top notch cb to go on the opposite side shouldn't be discounted at 12. I also think that position group could drop as a whole in this draft. We potentially will our pick of all the db's in this draft at 12. Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter, etc.
IrishAg
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Max Power said:

Ag_07 said:

As far as Carter is concerned I'd be more worried about his recent on-field struggles at his pro day than I would be his off field issues.

Which is odd because before the pro day it was the opposite, but you can't ignore gaining 9 lbs in two weeks, not lifting or running a 40, and not being able to compete drills that he did participate in.
McShay went on a deep dive on the first draft podcast this week about Carter. He did indicate he's had character concerns about him from what he's heard at Georgia. He's late for meetings, doesn't practice hard either. He also said that he 100% shows up at the games. The pro day stuff I'm guessing is probably impacted by stress related to what he's been dealing with on a personal level. Guys tend to show up at the combine in the best shape of their lives, a guy that weighed 314 at the combine showing up at 323 doesn't concern me. He gained less than 3% of his body weight, not a big deal IMO.

If he's there at 12 I think Ryans is the kind of coach that would be good for him. But I don't think he's going to be there at 12 regardless. He's still going top 10, I think he goes at 5 to Seattle, Pete Carroll has no issues taking a guy with potential character concerns. If he's there then Seattle runs to the podium with that pick. He's still likely the first defensive player taken in the draft. I think LV is going to pick up the phone and try to trade with Arizona to get in front of Indy at 3.

Also of note McShay went fairly deep on the WRs that are likely to be taken in the first round. Johnston, Addison, JSN, Flowers, and Hyatt. His interpretation of Johnston is that he's a bigger version of Hopkins, only real knock on him seems to be his route running, but he's not asked to do much in that regard at TCU, he's so physically gifted he can rely on that over precision. Addison is the opposite, but Addison isn't a no 1 receiver. JSN is the most well rounded, but nothing he does is exceptional, which is going to limit his ceiling to being at best a no 2 WR. Flowers and Hyatt sounded more like no 2 or 3 receivers. Johnston was the only one he sounded like had the potential to be a no 1 but he was hesitant on that.

The more he talked about the WRs the less impressed I was. It made me believe that our best options at 12 are offensive line or defensive line prospects. He was really big on Lukas Van Ness from Iowa, even though he's never started a game, but he played starter reps, he came just short of saying that it's a Ferentz issue and not a Van Ness issue. Van Ness came late to football, was more of a hockey player growing up, still has the ability to be molded into the player he has the potential to be. He can play outside or inside the OT so he's got some flexibility.

If we absolutely have to get a receiving option in the first round it might be better to consider Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer at TE. He was also big on both of those guys.

IMO dark horse position at 12 would be cb. There's some really nice prospects in the draft. Stingley on one side is a great start, a top notch cb to go on the opposite side shouldn't be discounted at 12. I also think that position group could drop as a whole in this draft. We potentially will our pick of all the db's in this draft at 12. Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter, etc.
That's some good stuff there. I agree that Carter is probably going to be snatched up by Seattle, and if he isn't then I would be EXTREMELY concerned about picking him at at 12.

Agree completely on WR, no true #1 this year. Johnston has the attributes, but guys coming into the league with limited route understanding usually don't pan out.

I think we do QB at #2, then DL at #12. On Van Ness, while McShay may not have come out and said it, others have and it is completely a Ferentz issue. No matter how talented a player is, seniority always wins out for him. It's why that program is so stuck, you have a potential top 10 pick that you aren't starting just because someone is older than him. I would be good with Van Ness, Meyers, or even Nolan Smith at #12. Maybe center with our 2nd rounder, then TE with our first pick in the 3rd. There are something like 15 TEs in this draft that have NFL starter grades on them.

Not sure on investing on CB again in the first round just because of contract timing issues, but if a player drops, I don't mind grabbing him up.

LincolnBorglum79
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After Jimmy G signed it's clear the Texans will take Young or Stroud with pick 2 and 12 now seems to be best player available or trade back for a later first plus a 2 or better. If there is a Wilson/ Van Ness/Nolan Smith there at 12 I think that's the pick or a top TE. No WR appears worth that high but could be if they trade back.

I hope they recognize the potential of Devon Achane as a weapon that works well with Pierce.
Ryan34
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There is a lot of DL talent in this draft. Combined with the expected run on QBs, I'm betting the best value at #12 will be DL.

2nd round, maybe WR or TE. Depends how things shake out.

I think we'll add a complementary RB in the 3rd or 4th. Maybe Achane if he lasts that long. I also wouldn't be surprised if we moved up, especially if we convert Cooks into draft capital.
The Porkchop Express
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Ag_07 said:

As far as Carter is concerned I'd be more worried about his recent on-field struggles at his pro day than I would be his off field issues.

Which is odd because before the pro day it was the opposite, but you can't ignore gaining 9 lbs in two weeks, not lifting or running a 40, and not being able to compete drills that he did participate in.
And having this picture taken of you, lying on the ground gassed and cramping.

Ryan34
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I would be very cautious with Jalen Carter. His issues point to a potential lack of drive/motivation. No coach, manager, etc. can fix that, if it's the case. He'd have to interview exceptionally well if I were making the decision.
IrishAg
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Ryan34 said:

I would be very cautious with Jalen Carter. His issues point to a potential lack of drive/motivation. No coach, manager, etc. can fix that, if it's the case. He'd have to interview exceptionally well if I were making the decision.
Agreed, I think at #12 it's probably going to be Myles Murphy or Lukas Van Ness. Both have the profile and athletic ability that the 49ers look for in a defensive end. They usually want bigger ends who can set the edge, but that can also get after the QB.
W
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best player available at #12

and I agree that it won't be a WR
IrishAg
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W said:

best player available at #12

and I agree that it won't be a WR


If BPA is an OT, I guess we could also try to move Tunsil at the same time?
LB12Diamond
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So who do you think we are planning at this time to take at 2?
Gig ‘Em Baby!
IrishAg
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LB12Diamond said:

So who do you think we are planning at this time to take at 2?


The other QB that Carolina didn't pick
LB12Diamond
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Which one?

I'm not sure there is an obvious number 2.

I like the kid from Florida myself.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
IrishAg
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LB12Diamond said:

Which one?

I'm not sure there is an obvious number 2.

I like the kid from Florida myself.
Oh, it's going to be Stroud or Young in my opinion.

Richardson from Florida is way too much of a bust risk to take near the top....again, in my opinion.
LB12Diamond
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I think he will end up being the best QB in this draft. Just my opinion.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
Max Power
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IrishAg said:

W said:

best player available at #12

and I agree that it won't be a WR


If BPA is an OT, I guess we could also try to move Tunsil at the same time?
This is my hunch. If they take an OT at 12 then he's going to try to move Tunsil on day 1 of the draft. Plenty of teams would love to get him if we don't want to pay him the extension he wants. I'd love to have depth at the position but if they take a tackle that high I don't see them keeping Tunsil as well. The other option is letting Howard go. I just think Caserio's moves don't indicate to me he's going to give Tunsil a monster extension, he's more likely to move him for other assets.

At $22MM Tunsil is getting significant compensation. He's only paid less than Trent Williams and David Bakhtiari who both make $23MM/year. My guess is that he's going to want in the neighborhood of $25MM/year with a minimum of $75MM in guarantees. He's 29 years old, we could have him play out this next year and franchise him next year but I think Caserio would try to flip him before that happens.
IrishAg
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LB12Diamond said:

I think he will end up being the best QB in this draft. Just my opinion.


He has the potential to be the best, but he has the same level of potential to never contribute significantly. I think since this offense is the type to adapt to QB styles, but doesn't need a playmaker to operate at a high level, we will end up with Young or Stroud who both have a ceiling kind of close to Richardson, but also a floor that is crazy higher.

In other words we will probably lean towards an operator at QB who could occasionally be a playmaker more than a constant playmaker with big play potential.
IrishAg
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Max Power said:

IrishAg said:

W said:

best player available at #12

and I agree that it won't be a WR


If BPA is an OT, I guess we could also try to move Tunsil at the same time?
This is my hunch. If they take an OT at 12 then he's going to try to move Tunsil on day 1 of the draft. Plenty of teams would love to get him if we don't want to pay him the extension he wants. I'd love to have depth at the position but if they take a tackle that high I don't see them keeping Tunsil as well. The other option is letting Howard go. I just think Caserio's moves don't indicate to me he's going to give Tunsil a monster extension, he's more likely to move him for other assets.

At $22MM Tunsil is getting significant compensation. He's only paid less than Trent Williams and David Bakhtiari who both make $23MM/year. My guess is that he's going to want in the neighborhood of $25MM/year with a minimum of $75MM in guarantees. He's 29 years old, we could have him play out this next year and franchise him next year but I think Caserio would try to flip him before that happens.


I agree completely in all the points. With Tunsil already publicly saying he thinks it's his "duty" to re-establish the top of the OT market, I doubt Caserio will get a deal done to extend him. So if we go young, we should move Tunsil for compensation and sign Howard.
Ryan34
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IrishAg said:

LB12Diamond said:

Which one?

I'm not sure there is an obvious number 2.

I like the kid from Florida myself.
Oh, it's going to be Stroud or Young in my opinion.

Richardson from Florida is way too much of a bust risk to take near the top....again, in my opinion.

I think that's a misunderstanding of why QBs typically bust. It's typically one of things. 1) Between the ears or 2) physical skills don't translate. What makes a good college QB is not the same as a good NFL QB. Especially college QBs on teams with big talent advantages.

Tua beat out Jalen Hurts in college. Who would you rather have now?
Max Power
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Ryan34 said:

IrishAg said:

LB12Diamond said:

Which one?

I'm not sure there is an obvious number 2.

I like the kid from Florida myself.
Oh, it's going to be Stroud or Young in my opinion.

Richardson from Florida is way too much of a bust risk to take near the top....again, in my opinion.

I think that's a misunderstanding of why QBs typically bust. It's typically one of things. 1) Between the ears or 2) physical skills don't translate. What makes a good college QB is not the same as a good NFL QB. Especially college QBs on teams with big talent advantages.

Tua beat out Jalen Hurts in college. Who would you rather have now?
That's not as simple a question and answer based on their numbers, it's only simple when considering Tua's health vs Hurts's health. Tua is concussion prone and I do worry about whether he gets another contract but if you remove that part of the equation they're really close last year. Miami was really cooking when he was healthy. But Hurts missed 2 games last year to Tua's 4, if they played the same number of games Tua's stats for the year would likely exceed Hurts's. I'd love to see them switched and see who does better for a season.

Hurts (15 games): 3701 yards / 8.0 yards per att / 66.5% completion percentage / 22 TDs / 6 ints /
rating 101.6

Tua (13 games): 3548 yards / 8.9 yards per att / 64.8% completion percentage / 25 TDs / 8 ints /
rating 105.5

Though I do think Miami is a great example about how the coach and support the QB gets determines their success. Tua before and after McDaniel are two different QBs but it also helps that each one of them got a huge boost last year by way of a WR secured via trade. Tyreek Hill was the second leading WR in the NFL last year, AJ Brown was number 4. Jaylen Waddle was number 7 and DeVonta Smith was number 9. Each QB ended up having 2 WRs get into the top 9. Both of those teams are built for their QB to be successful, that's what matters.
Texan_Aggie
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Generally speaking, if there is a QB that no one talks about being a first round pick during college football and he bursts onto the scene with an impressive combine and/or pro-day performance, they don't end up being very good. Josh Allen is the only one recently I can think of.

Even the ones that are talked about at length to be a top pick don't really make it. Too much risk to take Richardson at #2.

Nick is not a gambler so I don't see him spending high draft capital on an athletic raw QB at #2. It's either Young or BPA.
LB12Diamond
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What about MaHomes
Gig ‘Em Baby!
Cartographer
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Patrick mahomes was a known commodity. He was slinging the ball around for 2 years.

It's not his fault tech cant recruit/play defense.

IrishAg
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Is Not a Turtle said:

Patrick mahomes was a known commodity. He was slinging the ball around for 2 years.

It's not his fault tech cant recruit/play defense.


Yeah, the biggest knock on Mahomes was that he was coming out of an air raid offense that traditionally doesn't product pro QBs. His combine/pro day was more about arm strength.

Allen is a little closer comparison because he didn't have great college stats like Richardson, but unlike Richardson, Allen was on a craptaciular team with hardly any talent. Another big differentiator that I heard on a podcast recently is that Allen was a full time starter for 2 complete seasons. Richardson really only has 1 year of significant playing time, which is usually not a good thing for a QB coming into the NFL.

I think the talent is there for Richardson, but he also hits a lot of the analytical points that are tied to QB's who end up being busts in the NFL. Which is why I don't think he'll go 1 or 2, especially after Stroud had an amazing drills portion of the combine....which seems to not be talked about very much right now for some reason. Stroud went out there and hit every single pass with ease (and I mean ease), and was going toe to toe with Levis and Richardson in the long ball.

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