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Nom de Plume said:

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ezmoney said:

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Yes it's intriguing but do people not enjoy driving, control and combustible horsepower? Serious question.

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This guy. I enjoy every moment of driving and don't understand why people don't want to deal with driving when they're driving.

I want control, RWD, ICE, exhaust note, and never have too much HP.

Teslas look like some sort of generic government-issued vehicles.

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I love driving as much as the next guy and have driven vehicles with 3 pedals most of my life, but there are some difficult merges and multi lane changes on the freeway that are a lot of work that I could do without.

You can't spent a ton of time on your phone but you can look at it for short stints. It's great for eating.

JamesPShelley said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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ezmoney said:

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Yes it's intriguing but do people not enjoy driving, control and combustible horsepower? Serious question.

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Letting the car drive really if less tiring. On long trips I get there less "road weary ". No, I don't need control. I need to get there safely and is good at that. And the horsepower is better in a Y than anything in the price and size category. Pin you to your seat acceleration and it's instant. No downshift and no wind up. Press the pedal and it goes. Hard.

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I'd rather drive a slow car fast, than a fast car slow.

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The Fiat X 1/9 I had in college was incredibly fun to drive, even if it wasn't very fast.

After making a six-hour drive Sunday with the return trip Monday and a 13-hour drive on deck for this Sunday, I would love to have a self-driving SUV or van for road trips and a car like that Fiat to drive (or maybe a truck) when I want to enjoy the road.

It will eventually slow to a stop.

When you get a strike it doesn't just disengage autopilot it beeps loudly until you take over.

It is extremely boring now. However the tech is good enough if the gubmint would allow then you could play on your phone or watch a movie and it would be fantastic.

AgGrad99 said:

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Question about FSD -

You have to pay attention and cant pick up your phone, correct?

So you just have to sit there, don't drive, and cant do anything? That seems EXTREMELY boring, and almost tortuous. I think I'd hate that, as I'd much rather be doing something, than sitting there doing nothing.

Now, if I could hop in the car, and do other things (work/phone/etc)...that seems like a benefit. But I enjoy driving and dont want to be bored out of my mind everyday during my commute.

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You can talk on the phone via hands free.

Right. I meant use your phone for everything else, other than talking (all the things you can't do while driving).

I'd be so bored just sitting there, and would much rather drive the car myself, if I cant do anything else productive.

I will be more interested when the cars can talk to each other. I that will make everything safer and more efficient. I don't think that is too far away.

I enjoy driving, but not the same boring stretch of highway to work and back. Let the computer do that mess.

Buck Turgidson said:

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None of that appeals to me. I especially don't want a camera scanning my face continually and transmitting data while i trust this thing with my life. It only has to screw up one time and you're dead. I like nothing at all about Teslas except the acceleration.

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That's fine. Don't get one. I don't mean that with any kind of snarky tone. My entire position for these kinds of discussions is that the vast majority see cars as a utility and if you offer them a car that will drive itself with no supervision they're in. Better still offer them a car that will go get their groceries and take their kids to school and they're all over it. The number of people that WANT to drive their cars is a minority. This system is really good now. Once it's fully autonomous it will explode in a big, big way.

You can use your phone, make calls, eat. You just have to look forward most of the time. The point of FSD is not what it is now, but for it to be full autonomous which would allow you to do whatever you want including work/sleeping.

I believe tesla is close and once they get regulatory approval, you would be able to do all that. I suspect airlines are going to do whatever they can to block this. Having autonomous would kill short air travel such as a flight from Austin to Dallas which takes 3 hours or more to get to your destination.

Some, including you, may very well drive until they die. But this is what the future will look like. Will FSD make mistakes and get into accidents, Absolutely. But the point is not to be perfect, just be a lot better than most average drivers.

Do you think it would be safer having most cars be FSD than distracted drivers on their phones, eating, sleeping, drunk, etc?

I drove home one day after a late night and real tired around 2am. Put on FSD, and it drove me home without issues vs me nodding off and on throughout the 40 min drive.

LOYAL AG said:

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AgGrad99 said:

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Question about FSD -

You have to pay attention and cant pick up your phone, correct?

So you just have to sit there, don't drive, and cant do anything? That seems EXTREMELY boring, and almost tortuous. I think I'd hate that, as I'd much rather be doing something, than sitting there doing nothing.

Now, if I could hop in the car, and do other things (work/phone/etc)...that seems like a benefit. But I enjoy driving and dont want to be bored out of my mind everyday during my commute.

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You can talk on the phone via hands free.

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Or play Caraoke, listen to music, listen to podcasts, etc.

Would be nice to not have to pay attention to anything, but no one is there yet. My guess is Tesla will be there before any other major manufacturer.

Guitarsoup said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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AgGrad99 said:

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Question about FSD -

You have to pay attention and cant pick up your phone, correct?

So you just have to sit there, don't drive, and cant do anything? That seems EXTREMELY boring, and almost tortuous. I think I'd hate that, as I'd much rather be doing something, than sitting there doing nothing.

Now, if I could hop in the car, and do other things (work/phone/etc)...that seems like a benefit. But I enjoy driving and dont want to be bored out of my mind everyday during my commute.

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You can talk on the phone via hands free.

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Or play Caraoke, listen to music, listen to podcasts, etc.

Would be nice to not have to pay attention to anything, but no one is there yet. My guess is Tesla will be there before any other major manufacturer.

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Yeah Tesla is several years ahead on autonomy. I had a friend in mine the other day that owns a Mustang Mach E. He was blown away by the self driving. Their top offering is the mid-level product in a Tesla. It'll drive itself but not like this. It's hard to understand how far ahead it is until you've seen it in action.

LOYAL AG said:

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Guitarsoup said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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AgGrad99 said:

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Question about FSD -

You have to pay attention and cant pick up your phone, correct?

So you just have to sit there, don't drive, and cant do anything? That seems EXTREMELY boring, and almost tortuous. I think I'd hate that, as I'd much rather be doing something, than sitting there doing nothing.

Now, if I could hop in the car, and do other things (work/phone/etc)...that seems like a benefit. But I enjoy driving and dont want to be bored out of my mind everyday during my commute.

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You can talk on the phone via hands free.

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Or play Caraoke, listen to music, listen to podcasts, etc.

Would be nice to not have to pay attention to anything, but no one is there yet. My guess is Tesla will be there before any other major manufacturer.

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Yeah Tesla is several years ahead on autonomy. I had a friend in mine the other day that owns a Mustang Mach E. He was blown away by the self driving. Their top offering is the mid-level product in a Tesla. It'll drive itself but not like this. It's hard to understand how far ahead it is until you've seen it in action.

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Yeah, I've had the FSD since the 2nd beta test several years ago.

I commute across Houston (32mi each way) and it is pretty great.

Medaggie said:

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Some, including you, may very well drive until they die. But this is what the future will look like. Will FSD make mistakes and get into accidents, Absolutely. But the point is not to be perfect, just be a lot better than most average drivers.

Do you think it would be safer having most cars be FSD than distracted drivers on their phones, eating, sleeping, drunk, etc?

I drove home one day after a late night and real tired around 2am. Put on FSD, and it drove me home without issues vs me nodding off and on throughout the 40 min drive.

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For all cars to be FSD, i think we are looking at 30+ years. Yeah once cars can talk to each other and build a network to communicate, it will be a different world.

AgGrad99 said:

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Question about FSD -

You have to pay attention and cant pick up your phone, correct?

So you just have to sit there, don't drive, and cant do anything? That seems EXTREMELY boring, and almost tortuous. I think I'd hate that, as I'd much rather be doing something, than sitting there doing nothing.

Now, if I could hop in the car, and do other things (work/phone/etc)...that seems like a benefit. But I enjoy driving and dont want to be bored out of my mind everyday during my commute.

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This is where I'm at. If FSD would allow me to open my laptop and be more productive, I'd buy one tomorrow. If I could throw on Netflix and binge watch shows on my drives down to the coast, same thing. Until then, I'll continue to play how much time can I drop from my Waze estimate and enjoy driving my car. Hopefully Tesla will have a decent looking car by the time full autonomous is ready. The S is almost there.

Most cars will not be FSD for many years, potentially many decades because its hard to change human habits. But once FSD is shown to be 2 standard of deviations better than human drivers, the old dinosaurs will be long gone and the new generations will be, "screw that, I am not taking driving classes or learn to drive".

Many people my parents generation still don't email.

Medaggie said:

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Most cars will not be FSD for many years, potentially many decades because its hard to change human habits. But once FSD is shown to be 2 standard of deviations better than human drivers, the old dinosaurs will be long gone and the new generations will be, "screw that, I am not taking driving classes or learn to drive".

Many people my parents generation still don't email.

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Also how will fsd work in places with lax traffic laws. I am guessing fsd will work in maybe 30 countries. Rest of the countries have no lane discipline, let alone rules that are followed.

I think a decade from now the legacy manufacturers will be licensing FSD from Tesla. I just don't see how they close the gap any other way. Whether they're still making cars or not is harder to predict. A quick Google search for how many miles FSD has in its training data yielded two interesting numbers. Almost a year ago they announced the system has passed the 1 BILLION mile mark. (By August it was at 1.6 billion.) The second interesting number is that as of two years ago it was driving a million miles per day. I'm guessing today's daily number is a lot bigger because the 3 and Y have become so popular.

That's a tremendous head start and I'm not sure we see anyone trying to close the gap yet do we? Everyone else has what amounts to adaptive cruise and lane keep assist which are great but not comparable. Teslas verbiage refers to the fleet communicating about traffic problems and rerouting cars to avoid delays so they're moving towards that world where they talk to each other. But again I don't see anyone else trying to catch up yet which makes me think Tesla's future is as a software company licensing this system.

LOYAL AG said:

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We bought a Y in November and FSD is truly incredible. There's nothing like it and it'll take years for everyone to catch up. Ultimately I think the legacy car manufacturers will try to license it from Tesla because I just don't see how they ever catch up organically. I've read Tesla has over a billion miles of training data and I believe it. I'll go entire drives where I don't intervene. I've done 1-1/2 of highway driving without ever touching the car. Lane changes. Parking lots. Pedestrians. Lights. Stop signs. It's incredible. The one thing it isn't good at is "seeing" speed limit signs against the sky. They get lost in wispy clouds. Even then you just adjust its max to what the speed limit actually is and it does what you tell it.

It really is an incredible system.

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Can you tell it to drive 5 mph over the speed limit?

Your paired phone.

You can tell it to drive faster than that

FSD is not the industry leader in self driving cars and the fact that so many people think they are is proof that their "Beta" program is a smart marketing idea but a bit of a boondoggle.

Waymo has a fleet of level 4 autonomous vehicles operating in multiple cities. FSD is level 2 or maybe 2.5. You have to have a hand on the wheel, and their switch away from LIDAR to a fully vision based system has made things much more difficult for them. If they can perfect it with cameras only, that would be a huge win, but as it stands today there are other companies doing far more advanced autonomous driving than Tesla. Even Mercedes has a L3 system, it just isn't available in all areas like Tesla.

https://www.synopsys.com/blogs/chip-design/autonomous-driving-levels.html

https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/full-autonomy-waymo-driver-2652903723

https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB60804-9CEA-4F4B-8B04-09B991368DC5.html

You don't have to have a hand on the wheel, but it does tell you to.

A. G. Pennypacker said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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We bought a Y in November and FSD is truly incredible. There's nothing like it and it'll take years for everyone to catch up. Ultimately I think the legacy car manufacturers will try to license it from Tesla because I just don't see how they ever catch up organically. I've read Tesla has over a billion miles of training data and I believe it. I'll go entire drives where I don't intervene. I've done 1-1/2 of highway driving without ever touching the car. Lane changes. Parking lots. Pedestrians. Lights. Stop signs. It's incredible. The one thing it isn't good at is "seeing" speed limit signs against the sky. They get lost in wispy clouds. Even then you just adjust its max to what the speed limit actually is and it does what you tell it.

It really is an incredible system.

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Can you tell it to drive 5 mph over the speed limit?

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Its max speed is 85 MPH in any setting. You set a default limit above the posted speed limit and that's where it starts but you can adjust it up or down from there by changing the max which is done by using the right scroll wheel. So I have my default set to 10% above the posted limit. When it misses a speed limit sign that goes from like 60 to 70 I just use the wheel to raise its max to like 80 and it drives near that max.

LOYAL AG said:

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A. G. Pennypacker said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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We bought a Y in November and FSD is truly incredible. There's nothing like it and it'll take years for everyone to catch up. Ultimately I think the legacy car manufacturers will try to license it from Tesla because I just don't see how they ever catch up organically. I've read Tesla has over a billion miles of training data and I believe it. I'll go entire drives where I don't intervene. I've done 1-1/2 of highway driving without ever touching the car. Lane changes. Parking lots. Pedestrians. Lights. Stop signs. It's incredible. The one thing it isn't good at is "seeing" speed limit signs against the sky. They get lost in wispy clouds. Even then you just adjust its max to what the speed limit actually is and it does what you tell it.

It really is an incredible system.

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Can you tell it to drive 5 mph over the speed limit?

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Its max speed is 85 MPH in any setting. You set a default limit above the posted speed limit and that's where it starts but you can adjust it up or down from there by changing the max which is done by using the right scroll wheel. So I have my default set to 10% above the posted limit. When it misses a speed limit sign that goes from like 60 to 70 I just use the wheel to raise its max to like 80 and it drives near that max.

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Interesting - surprised the gubmint regulations allows this. I guess even politicians don't like being restricted to driving the speed limit.

GarlandAg2012 said:

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FSD is not the industry leader in self driving cars and the fact that so many people think they are is proof that their "Beta" program is a smart marketing idea but a bit of a boondoggle.

Waymo has a fleet of level 4 autonomous vehicles operating in multiple cities. FSD is level 2 or maybe 2.5. You have to have a hand on the wheel, and their switch away from LIDAR to a fully vision based system has made things much more difficult for them. If they can perfect it with cameras only, that would be a huge win, but as it stands today there are other companies doing far more advanced autonomous driving than Tesla. Even Mercedes has a L3 system, it just isn't available in all areas like Tesla.

https://www.synopsys.com/blogs/chip-design/autonomous-driving-levels.html

https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/full-autonomy-waymo-driver-2652903723

https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB60804-9CEA-4F4B-8B04-09B991368DC5.html

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You can't buy a Waymo car.

MB's Drive Pilot is almost to the point where they are allowed to drive at 59mph at Level 3. Currently limited to 40mph. It is mainly in Germany but is testing with some cars in Nevada and California.


You do not have to have your hand on a Tesla wheel during FSD. You do have to keep your eyes on the road

GarlandAg2012 said:

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FSD is not the industry leader in self driving cars and the fact that so many people think they are is proof that their "Beta" program is a smart marketing idea but a bit of a boondoggle.

Waymo has a fleet of level 4 autonomous vehicles operating in multiple cities. FSD is level 2 or maybe 2.5. You have to have a hand on the wheel, and their switch away from LIDAR to a fully vision based system has made things much more difficult for them. If they can perfect it with cameras only, that would be a huge win, but as it stands today there are other companies doing far more advanced autonomous driving than Tesla. Even Mercedes has a L3 system, it just isn't available in all areas like Tesla.

https://www.synopsys.com/blogs/chip-design/autonomous-driving-levels.html

https://spectrum.ieee.org/amp/full-autonomy-waymo-driver-2652903723

https://www.mbusa.com/en/owners/manuals/drive-pilot

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_us/GUID-2CB60804-9CEA-4F4B-8B04-09B991368DC5.html

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You note Waymo isn't available in all areas and that's a huge difference. Waymo only works in areas that have been mapped for it. And I've read it can't handle changes like construction zones that aren't mapped out. Lastly it can't leave its geofenced area which is actually probably at least in part due to legal restrictions I noted above. That's a pretty limited application. Tesla can go anywhere and is learning how to handle anything just like you and I would.

Teslas change to camera driven and away from lidar was a temporary set back but a long term massive win. Can lidar read speed limit signs? Can it see temporary stop signs or red lights? Can it navigate barriers due to construction? I've seen FSD do all of that. Some examples of what FSD can do that Waymo can't.

I once had mine pull up to a construction zone with a barricade in my lane. The car stopped, looked at the barricade, then drove around it and kept going. (Short version the construction zone is one of those where certain times of day it's ok to drive and others it's not.) That same zone had a temporary stop sign and it saw that size and stopped. At night no less.

Yesterday I was driving south into CS and construction had stopped traffic and backed it up for a couple of miles. The car took the next turn off of 6 and drove a more or less parallel street for a few miles til it got past the blockage and navigated back to the highway. That's something we've all done but still it was pretty impressive to see the car decide it was the right thing to do.

There's a video on YT of FSD seeing a car stopped in the middle lane of a 3-lane highway, changing to the right and navigating the carnage as it unfolded in front of it. The driver said she feels like the system saved her life as the car between her and the stopped car plowed into the stopped car and she doubts she'd have had time to avoid it successfully because traffic was pretty heavy.

I'll read your articles on the other systems I just wanted to note that Waymo just isn't the same thing. Its limit to mapped out roads and reliance on the speed limits in its nav system are much different. It's Robotaxi which goes live in Austin this summer. Neither can drive you to Dallas or Houston but Waymo isn't even designed for that right now.

Good discussion. Tia for the links.

lancevance said:

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Medaggie said:

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Most cars will not be FSD for many years, potentially many decades because its hard to change human habits. But once FSD is shown to be 2 standard of deviations better than human drivers, the old dinosaurs will be long gone and the new generations will be, "screw that, I am not taking driving classes or learn to drive".

Many people my parents generation still don't email.

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Also how will fsd work in places with lax traffic laws. I am guessing fsd will work in maybe 30 countries. Rest of the countries have no lane discipline, let alone rules that are followed.

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FSD will start in 1st world countries with good traffic flow/laws. It is not going to work in Vietnam, at least not yet, when you don't have correct street signs and people don't follow any rules.

But most of the $$$ will be made from first world countries and then eventually flow to 3rd world when they get up to speed. It is not like most in the 3rd world can afford a Tesla when they barely have reliable electricity.

LOYAL AG said:

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I think a decade from now the legacy manufacturers will be licensing FSD from Tesla. I just don't see how they close the gap any other way. Whether they're still making cars or not is harder to predict. A quick Google search for how many miles FSD has in its training data yielded two interesting numbers. Almost a year ago they announced the system has passed the 1 BILLION mile mark. (By August it was at 1.6 billion.) The second interesting number is that as of two years ago it was driving a million miles per day. I'm guessing today's daily number is a lot bigger because the 3 and Y have become so popular.

That's a tremendous head start and I'm not sure we see anyone trying to close the gap yet do we? Everyone else has what amounts to adaptive cruise and lane keep assist which are great but not comparable. Teslas verbiage refers to the fleet communicating about traffic problems and rerouting cars to avoid delays so they're moving towards that world where they talk to each other. But again I don't see anyone else trying to catch up yet which makes me think Tesla's future is as a software company licensing this system.

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Unless another company somehow figures a better way to implement autonomous driving, the lead in insurmountable. If AI and video based leaning is the best way to accomplish autonomous, no one is going to catch up. Tesla is at least 5 years ahead and every year that passes adds on another year. No company is collecting any appreciable amount of video data to train and even if they did, they do not have the compute.

Once Tesla gets approval for Autonomous, the game is over. The cost to build out a similar system is tens to hundreds of billions and years of data collection. No one is going to even attempt this project just to "catch up" to Tesla who will be on to better systems.

The moat tesla has built is huge and will be insurmountable. They also are building a moat with Optimus and once they start selling them, they will use the same playbook to push millions of hours of video for training to get it to almost perfection.

I have great confidence they will achieve one if not both. Thus, I have about 50% weighted Tesla stocks and will continue to add on the dip.

A. G. Pennypacker said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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We bought a Y in November and FSD is truly incredible. There's nothing like it and it'll take years for everyone to catch up. Ultimately I think the legacy car manufacturers will try to license it from Tesla because I just don't see how they ever catch up organically. I've read Tesla has over a billion miles of training data and I believe it. I'll go entire drives where I don't intervene. I've done 1-1/2 of highway driving without ever touching the car. Lane changes. Parking lots. Pedestrians. Lights. Stop signs. It's incredible. The one thing it isn't good at is "seeing" speed limit signs against the sky. They get lost in wispy clouds. Even then you just adjust its max to what the speed limit actually is and it does what you tell it.

It really is an incredible system.

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Can you tell it to drive 5 mph over the speed limit?

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This is how FSD works. If they read a sign (still somewhat spotty) and it says 50mph. If the flow of traffic is 60, it will drive at 60. If they sense the conditions is poor, then it will go under 50 including winding roads with poor visibility.

You can manually set the top speed easily with a scroll button. So if you are driving in a 60mph road and it is going 75 (yes it will do this if flow is fast), you can set it to max out at 70.

There are 3 FSD mode, chill vs standard vs aggressive. Standard is quite aggressive and I have not tried aggressive yet.

I have had 3 incidents that was strangely abrupt in the past year.

#1 - super fast changing lane for no reasons - I could not figure out why. Maybe it saw something not there or maybe saw an animal I didn't see. Weird and somewhat concerning.

#2 - Quick slow down at highway speed in a country road. Dropped speed from 75 to 40 with a hard brake. Dear ran by and I didn't even see it until close to 40. FSD sees things before I could even see. Quite amazing and potentially avoided hitting a dear

#3 - Same as #2 but this time when sun almost set. Being 50, my night vision is not like when I was 20. Slowed down to about 50 and when I went by, saw a dear on the grass side of the road. In no way would I have seen the deer when it was almost dark.