Josh Hamilton Might Be in Trouble Again

21,867 Views | 179 Replies | Last: 10 yr ago by Dallasag02
AgGrad99
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AG
Reports are 2 million per year is what the Rangers will pay him.

It's way cheaper than I thought it'd be. I still don't want him, but will hope for the best.
BMX Bandit
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Your interpretation of what inconsistent means is laughable.

There's a reason the Angels aren't trying to cancel the deal. There is no "special language"
mhayden
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quote:
Major upside? He's stunk ever since his 4 Hr game, is injured and is a mess mentally (which for him is saying a lot).

His team didn't want him, are doing everything they can to rid themselves of him, and no one else wants him.

I'm not insulted....but he insulted the fans. Silly to say otherwise.

If he'd been a decent player with the Angels, I'd feel differently....but he hasn't even been that.

Josh Hamilton's "not decent" 2013 or 2014 with the Angels would have made him the 2nd best offensive producer on the Rangers last year (behind Beltre).

Josh Hamilton's "not decent" 2013 or 2014 with the Angels would have made him the 2nd best offensive producer on the Rangers so far this year out of regular starters.
91AggieLawyer
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AG
Not 2013, it wouldn't. He would be middle of the team at best on most offensive stats. I'm not sure that's a fair comparison, anyway. Besides, the Angels won 98 games with Hamilton playing about half of them and having about the power output of the Ranger's Michael Choice in virtually the same number of games played.

I don't care if he only costs the Rangers $5 or saves the Angels that much. He won't get this team to the World Series, certainly won't help them win it, and any big move the Rangers make should be geared toward that goal -- even if it takes a few years. Short term thinking is out for this team, and Josh doesn't figure in anyone's long term thinking. It also takes a thorn out of the side of a division foe. Don't do it, Jon.
mhayden
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Not 2013, it wouldn't. He would be middle of the team at best on most offensive stats. I'm not sure that's a fair comparison, anyway. Besides, the Angels won 98 games with Hamilton playing about half of them and having about the power output of the Ranger's Michael Choice in virtually the same number of games played.

I don't care if he only costs the Rangers $5 or saves the Angels that much. He won't get this team to the World Series, certainly won't help them win it, and any big move the Rangers make should be geared toward that goal -- even if it takes a few years. Short term thinking is out for this team, and Josh doesn't figure in anyone's long term thinking. It also takes a thorn out of the side of a division foe. Don't do it, Jon.

Josh Hamilton put up a 739 OPS in 2013. 745 OPS in 2014.

The only Rangers regular hitter that did better than that in 2014 was Adrian Beltre. Fielder put up 720 OPS in 150 ABs... Next regular was Choo with 455 ABs coming in at 714.

The only Rangers regular hitter that has done better than that this year (at hte time of posting) is/was Fielder.

The guy certainly isn't producing like he used to, but you simply can't make a case that swapping Josh Hamilton for Shin-Soo Choo in the outfield is going to generate less production. Choo has been one of the worst in all of baseball.

There is no "thorn out of the side of a division foe". If anything it's the opposite. Angels are paying the vast majority of this contract, the alternative is that they would just eat the whole thing and release him. We're talking the difference of $10m or so to the Angels.

Your dislike for him as a person shines through your attempt to say it's about "what will win this team a World Series" when you say you wouldn't take him for $5.

Rangers take on absolutely no risk in this deal. Here are your scenarios:

1) He produces like he did in 2013/2014... Nothing great, but gives us significantly more production than Choo/Martin/Smolinski.

2) He produces like he did in 2011/2012... You have a guy anchoring your lineup almost for free.

3) He's washed up or a distraction... If this was a team about to move into the postseason, OK that would be bad. This is a 75 win team though (maybe)... Is Josh Hamilton the distraction going to cost us wins and push us to a 70 win team? Oh no.


Low risk, high reward deals are what this team should be doing no matter their playoff potential.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
If he's a distraction or issue for the younger players, they can get rid of him. He cost nothing. Very simple and easy.

It's clear the Angels decided he would never play for them again, and given they picked up almost the entire tab, they clearly didn't need a trading partner to dump him. They could have just dumped him. I'd argue this potentially adds a thorn for them, because they just likely improved a division opponent that they will face more often than other teams.

If he was blocking a highly talented prospect from getting PT, that would be one thing. He's not. He's just a guy that likely makes this team better. For almost nothing. That works for me.
COOL LASER FALCON
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He won't get this team to the World Series, certainly won't help them win it, and any big move the Rangers make should be geared toward that goal
This move is just as "big" as the Ross Detweiler signing.

I think you're right that he won't help get the Rangers to the World Series, but he could conceivably help the team sneak into the postseason. I would certainly take that after last season and the start to this season. There's also the small chance that he turns it around and gets you a decent mid-level prospect in a trade.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
This also isn't a 2015 move, in my book. He's not healthy right now anyway, and no one player is pushing this ship anywhere near the post-season. But 2016 could be a different story if they could ever get this pitching staff healthy. Yu, Holland, Perez, and now Martinez is looking like a formidable staff ... if they can ever get all 4 of them on the mound.
mhayden
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This also isn't a 2015 move, in my book. He's not healthy right now anyway, and no one player is pushing this ship anywhere near the post-season. But 2016 could be a different story if they could ever get this pitching staff healthy. Yu, Holland, Perez, and now Martinez is looking like a formidable staff ... if they can ever get all 4 of them on the mound.

Which is why I think it works. If this was for a competitive 2015 team you could make the case that you're adding a potential distraction that could upset team chemistry.

But this 2015 team isn't going anywhere with or without Hamilton. They have little to no chemistry. This is the perfect time to give this a shot.
corleoneAg99
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AG
It will also sell more tickets and shirtseys...which is why the owers are absolutely on board and there is no way this move was made by JD alone.
Motel California
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S
Agreed with what you said.

Some people just need to let go of some over blown nonsense from the past.
Mr Gigem
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AG
I want to win and have a run at the post-season, but this is what I am more concerned in regards to my job

quote:
It will also sell more tickets
Motel California
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S
quote:
quote:
Maybe he shouldn't have spent so much time preaching to the masses and just kept a low profile.

Josh has a very powerful testimony, and can be an inspiration to many people who are dealing with those same demons he deals with every day. The dude is human and is going to make mistakes. So he should just stop talking about his past and his road to recovery because there is a chance he will relapse and make a mistake again?

He who is without sin, may he cast the first stone...


Oh look... We agree on something
Houston Summit
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AgGrad99
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AG
Everyone feel all warm and fuzzy after that press conference.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
As I've posted elsewhere, he's an idiot. That press conference is almost exactly what I expected, with one exception - little/less reference to God.

He is what he is. Go hit the baseball and try not to get stoned in between games. Even at his Angels production levels, he can do the first part better than about 90% of the current roster. And for 7-8 years he's avoided the second part from going so far that he ends up suspended. So we'll see. If either part doesn't pan out or something else goes wrong, release him with no harm to the club. I can't figure out why anyone would be in a twist over this deal from the Rangers perspective.
mhayden
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Because sports talk radio said he insulted our city and has told us he quit on the team in 2012.

Nevermind what he said was actually true and he raked in the final months of 2012.
Motel California
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S
quote:
Because sports talk radio said he insulted our city and has told us he quit on the team in 2012.

Nevermind what he said was actually true and he raked in the final months of 2012.
DallasAg 94
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Because sports talk radio said he insulted our city and has told us he quit on the team in 2012.

Nevermind what he said was actually true and he raked in the final months of 2012.
And by Rake... you mean:

.310 \ .368 OBP \ .943 OPS \ 7 HR \ 25R \ 28 RBI in 29 GS in August
AgGrad99
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AG
We'll see how he does going forward. If he is a decent player, or if something hinders him for long stretches when the team needs him (mental days, energy drinks, sunglasses, day games, night games, contacts, not dipping, wife issues, relapses and/or injuries).

While I'm skeptical what type of player he'll ever be, and while I realize this is just an inexpensive attempt to fill some seats...I'll be rooting for his production....but not him. I just don't like the guy. Started before he left, and not because of sports radio (odd insinuation and a little insulting). You can see my posts in this board about his issues, and why I didn't want to resign him...before he left.

So all that said...if it's ok, I'll go ahead and continue to dislike him, no matter what he does on the field....because I don't like him and his selfish attitude.
mhayden
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No one is telling you that you need to like him.

But it's silly to act like you're evaluating the move from any standpoint other than your like or dislike for the guy.

"just an inexpensive attempt to fill some seats"


No, what the team is running out there every night in Smolinski, Rosales DeShields, etc... is more of an inexpensive attempt to fill some seats. Those guys have never had a track record of big league success, they are there simply as a placeholder because you gotta have 9 guys.

When Josh Hamilton "sucked" in 2013 he put up better everyday OPS #'s than all but 1 Rangers' hitter this year AND last year.

When Josh Hamilton "sucked" in 2014 he put up better every OPS #'s than all but 1 Rangers' hitter this year AND last year.



It may not work out, but to imply it's some kind of publicity stunt to sell tickets is simply choosing to ignore how bad this lineup has been for 2 seasons.
AgGrad99
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AG
A. I don't like him

B. I don't think his circus is worth his decent production (if he's decent again)

C. I know we're a bad lineup, but we aren't going anywhere this season, and he's not in the long term plans for this club. It is absolutely to sell seats. Its not like this club is one player away.
Motel California
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S
quote:
A. I don't like him

B. I don't think his circus is worth his decent production (if he's decent again)

C. I know we're a bad lineup, but we aren't going anywhere this season, and he's not in the long term plans for this club. It is absolutely to sell seats. Its not like this club is one player away.


So, since we are terrible we should only try to improve unless its deemed a long term move in your opinion?

Just fold it in and give up on this season before May?
AgGrad99
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AG
Of course not. That wasnt my point.
DannyDuberstein
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AG
Define long-term. Is this a postseason team in 2015 with him? No. But with a rotation of Yu, Holland, Perez, and Martinez in 2016, upgrades to the lineup that may help it rise above its current popcorn fart status could be difference-makers. Especially upgrades that leave them full financial flexibility to pursue other needed upgrades.
DallasAg 94
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Define long-term. Is this a postseason team in 2015 with him? No. But with a rotation of Yu, Holland, Perez, and Martinez in 2016, upgrades to the lineup that may help it rise above its current popcorn fart status could be difference-makers. Especially upgrades that leave them full financial flexibility to pursue other needed upgrades.
Harrison could be back June 1, as well. I've written Harrison off, but was surprised to see he is making progress back.

We are at $109.7M for 2016. Gallardo is a FA, but could be another possiblity.

Round Rock has a number of guys, as well:
Eickhoff (RHP-24) had a great 8.1 IP performance in his debut at AAA. 463 IP in MiLB
ChiChi (RHP-23) has 4 GS (22.1 IP) and is 4.43\1.43. 203 IP in MiLB
Luke Jackson (RHP-23) has 4 GS (17.1 IP) and is 5.19\1.62. With 473 IP in MiLB.

The guideline is usually a desire to get about 600 IP in MiLB. By season's end Eickhoff and Jackson should be close. So, I'm very positive about our rotation potential in 2016.
Kyle98
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AG
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So, I'm very positive about our rotation potential in 2016.
Dude, you're an eternal optimist, so you're never NOT positive about next year's potential!
DallasAg 94
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So, I'm very positive about our rotation potential in 2016.
Dude, you're an eternal optimist, so you're never NOT positive about next year's potential!
The spring flows eternal. Guilty. As long as we have guys pitching in the minors, we have upside.

BTW... you must have missed my rant last week.

And we get the 4th pick June 8th... over those 3 days, we get all kinds of potential.

It IS one of the things I love about baseball. You only need 1 decent SP to get a win each week.
mhayden
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A. I don't like him

B. I don't think his circus is worth his decent production (if he's decent again)

C. I know we're a bad lineup, but we aren't going anywhere this season, and he's not in the long term plans for this club. It is absolutely to sell seats. Its not like this club is one player away.

As far as 2015 goes, B and C counter each other. If there is a "circus" to his production this year, who cares? As you say, we aren't going anywhere this season... Seems like the perfect time for a "chemistry" gamble.

Not in the long-term plans? This isn't a 1 year deal. Josh is signed (basically on the Angels dime) essentially through 2017.

Here is the oWAR put up by some of the Rangers regular outfielders in 2010/2011/2012 (what most considered the heyday of the club):

2010: Guerrero 1.8 oWAR
2010: Borbon: 0.2 oWAR
2011: Cruz: 1.7 oWAR
2011: Murphy: 0.3 oWAR
2012: Gentry: 1.1 oWAR
2012: Cruz: 1.6 oWAR


Hamtilon as a "shell of his former self" put up a 1.9 and 1.5 oWAR in his two years in Los Angeles.

If he does just that, we've got an outfield spot locked down equivalent to what we had in our "heyday", and certainly better than Smolinski, DeShields, Rua, etc...

Add to that this idea that Hamilton returning is somehow just about selling seats... If his production isn't good enough to warrant him being here, you think that's going to sell $7m worth of seats (what Texas is paying him)? Sorry, running Josh out there as a dog and pony show for a few games before he flails off into oblivion I don't think is going to generate $7m in ticket sales.
DallasAg 94
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As it pertains to Josh and revenue... For 2015, he adds $2M to the payroll. Any player we'd have on the roster in his place would cost $508K.

So, the real net-cost of Hamilton is $1.5M. In some aspect it is to help sell tickets this season. Fine. He could just needs to draw interest.

In 2016, STHs will either be drawn by Hamilton and the team or not. Marketing Hamilton as a key player for 2016, could add 1,000+/- STHs. If they are $50/game for 162 games... that's $8.1M in revenue. Even if he never plays a game in 2016, he'll have been a net-positive for the Rangers.

At $50/game for 162 games... the Rangers only need to sell 741 Season Tickets in 2016, to break even for their financial liability with Hamilton.

I think that is easy money.
mhayden
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As it pertains to Josh and revenue... For 2015, he adds $2M to the payroll. Any player we'd have on the roster in his place would cost $508K.

So, the real net-cost of Hamilton is $1.5M. In some aspect it is to help sell tickets this season. Fine. He could just needs to draw interest.

In 2016, STHs will either be drawn by Hamilton and the team or not. Marketing Hamilton as a key player for 2016, could add 1,000+/- STHs. If they are $50/game for 162 games... that's $8.1M in revenue. Even if he never plays a game in 2016, he'll have been a net-positive for the Rangers.

At $50/game for 162 games... the Rangers only need to sell 741 Season Tickets in 2016, to break even for their financial liability with Hamilton.

I think that is easy money.

Rangers aren't selling 700+ additional season tickets in the $50/game range unless Rangers make the World Series this year.

This move has next to nothing to do with ticket revenue.
J.P. 03
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AG
You guys are forgetting the true financial genius of this move: Josh has been gone long enough (not to mention he left with enough animosity) for everyone to burn or throw away any Hamilton merchandise they owned by now. If he comes back and plays halfway decent, all those fans will have to re-buy their jerseys. Brilliant long-term play by JD.
DallasAg 94
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You guys are forgetting the true financial genius of this move: Josh has been gone long enough (not to mention he left with enough animosity) for everyone to burn or throw away any Hamilton merchandise they owned by now. If he comes back and plays halfway decent, all those fans will have to re-buy their jerseys. Brilliant long-term play by JD.
I had been wondering if they change his number.
Houston Summit
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AG
quote:
Im glad Josh is gone and I'm glad our crackhead coach is gone too.
Do you still feel this way?
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
Hamtilon as a "shell of his former self" put up a 1.9 and 1.5 oWAR in his two years in Los Angeles.

If he does just that, we've got an outfield spot locked down equivalent to what we had in our "heyday", and certainly better than Smolinski, DeShields, Rua, etc...
In DeShields' defense, he already has a 1.1 oWAR through 36 games and 112 plate appearances. Stolen bases can go a long way.

There isn't much desirable about a sub 2.0 oWAR over a full season. That's platoon/bench level production.

To have a 1.5 overall WAR in 2013 as Josh did, having played full time, is just plain bad.

They'll need more than that. So far, so good.
 
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