Bagwell went from 40HR 100 RBI in 2003 (Age of 35 season) to retired after 2005 due to his injury issues

He very easily probably lost 100 HRs from his career stats and a couple above average seasons at 1B

I would vote for these players

Ken Griffey, Jr
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens

I would strongly consider Sosa.

The NY Post voters just released their ballots: 1 of 4 voted for Bagwell

Today is the day.

With 181 ballots (40.2%)

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100%
Mike Piazza - 86.2%
Jeff Bagwell - 77.3 %
Tim Raines - 76.2%
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Trevor Hoffman - 63.0%
Curt Shilling - 59.1%
Mike Mussina - 53.0%
Barry Bonds - 51.4%
Roger Clemens - 50.8%

No one else has over 50%.

Bagwell was at 79.5% through 171 ballots last night. Those last 10 did him in.

BMX,

You can choose to believe that only the players with the most irrefutable evidence are guilty (Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, McGwire, Pettitte, ect.). Bonds and Clemens were subject to a witch hunt that included politicians trying to make a name for themselves. I very highly doubt that Bagwell, Piazza, or Kent would have come out clean under that level of scrutiny. The simple fact is that there has been a sharp league wide decline in offense over the last decade as baseball has waned itself of the steroid users. 40 home runs led all of MLB in 2014. Those 40 home runs would have not even been in the top 10 from 1996-2001.

Can we get the Bagwell tits squeeze gif right now

This exit poll, which is now 27 votes behind, indicates that most likely Bagwell and Raines need to wait one more year.

Like I posted earlier, this year is a win no matter what because I don't think he gets left out now. Before this year I, and I think most people, thought he had zero shot.

is Griffey going to get 100% or will there be a ****head out there? Some of you guys follow this closer than me, but I do know there's that "no one deserves unanimous 1st ballot" group of idiots.

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BMX,

You can choose to believe that only the players with the most irrefutable evidence are guilty (Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, McGwire, Pettitte, ect.). Bonds and Clemens were subject to a witch hunt that included politicians trying to make a name for themselves. I very highly doubt that Bagwell, Piazza, or Kent would have come out clean under that level of scrutiny. The simple fact is that there has been a sharp league wide decline in offense over the last decade as baseball has waned itself of the steroid users. 40 home runs led all of MLB in 2014. Those 40 home runs would have not even been in the top 10 from 1996-2001.

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There have been several articles and books written that analyze the "PED" era. While the analysis that I have reviewed believe that "PEDs" had some statistical impact, all such analysis believe that other variables, such as expansion, strike zone, and ballparks, had a much greater statistical impact. This is why WAR is such a valuable statistic and measure because it compares the player against a "replacement" player in that particular season, and therefore, it helps to eliminate the statistical differences that can arise from one time frame to another time frame due to different variables (e.g. live ball versus dead ball era or seasons in which the mound was higher than it is today).

The tough part is, the bar is really not 75% but for most players it's closer to 80% because of the idiots like Chass and Hal Bodley who just refuse to cast meaningful ballots.

Here are three of the NY Post Writer ballots that left Bagwell off. Considering their selections, makes absolutely no sense how Bagwell was left off any of them:

Kevin Kernan

Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner

George A. King III

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Mark McGwire, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa

George Willis

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Ken Griffey Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield

Interesting article on the possibility of Griffey being unanimous and a look at why Tom Seaver wasn't.

Rosco,

If you could post a link or the information on those studies, I'd like to take a look at them. I don't disagree that there are other factors that may have contributed to a rise in the statistical outburst of the 90's and early 2000's. I find it hard to believe anything that suggests steroids weren't the greatest contributor. I don't hold a position that players from the steroid era should not be hall of fame worthy. Quite the contrary, I think several of them are hall of fame worthy. I just don't believe in ostracizing the greatest hitter and pitcher of the group because they were unrepentant and received more scrutiny.

good article by Jayson Stark of ESPN

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14509820/jayson-stark-explains-2016-hall-fame-ballot

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good article by Jayson Stark of ESPN

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14509820/jayson-stark-explains-2016-hall-fame-ballot

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Interesting side note on Stark. I happened to be watching Baseball Tonight on his very first appearance on ESPN. It was so brutal you could see the nervous sweat pouring out of your tv. I thought he had no prayer.

But the guy quickly found his groove, and he has been by far my favorite baseball analyst on the 4 letter network.

With 194 ballots (43.1%)

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100%
Mike Piazza - 86.1%
Jeff Bagwell - 76.8 %
Tim Raines - 76.3%

Not trending well for Bagwell or Raines.

I have read them over the years so would have to go find them again, but we can agree on one thing that the known users should not be ostracized. You cannot simply act like that era did not exist. Those players were the best of the era. Baseball was not testing for PEDs during that time frame. According to game theory, it would be rational to use PEDs, especially if that is your livelihood, so I believe that at least a majority of the players were using PEDs during that time.

Interesting that Piazza is holding in the mid 80s and Bagwell has slid. I always figured they were tied at the hip with the backne.

Aside from the voters who will not vote for him because of PED suspicions, I think Bagwell gets hurt because he is a first baseman and does not have 500 homeruns. The lazy voters who do not bother digging into the statistics exclude him from the ballot simply because he does not have 500 homeruns.

Thanks for linking both of those articles. I love that Stark is part of the baseball media. The other article about Griffey was good as well. I hadn't ever heard the circumstances around Seaver not getting 100%

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is Griffey going to get 100% or will there be a ****head out there? Some of you guys follow this closer than me, but I do know there's that "no one deserves unanimous 1st ballot" group of idiots.

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there is no chance anyone ever gets 100%

Interesting point that Stark made. Good post. The chances of the lesser deserving (but still deserving) candidates will be lessened further as there are too many deserving names on the list. This will probably be the case for another decade as the steroid guys will appear on the ballot in limbo. Might spell doom for guys like McGriff.

If a person doesn't vote for Junior, they should lose the privilege of ever voting again.

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If a person doesn't vote for Junior, they should lose the privilege of ever voting again.

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someone will turn in a blank ballot.

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If a person doesn't vote for Junior, they should lose the privilege of ever voting again.

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someone will turn in a blank ballot.

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that's what I figure is most likely.

I'm with Stark in that the way to vote is simple. Either you believe a person is a HOF'er or you don't.

I think many wont let Griffey or anyone else be unanimous because guys in the past weren't. And that's so stupid. Griffey being unanimous does not make him better than those other greats. It would be a healthy thing for someone to break through the unanimous barrier, so the old fogies will realize it isn't that big of a deal to vote for a guy on the first ballot when he's one of the greatest players of all time. So what if they are unanimous. Babe Ruth isn't losing sleep over it.

ESPN has 18 ballots with their writers. Bagwell got 11 of them. So much for the enlightened vote.

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Aside from the voters who will not vote for him because of PED suspicions, I think Bagwell gets hurt because he is a first baseman and does not have 500 homeruns. The lazy voters who do not bother digging into the statistics exclude him from the ballot simply because he does not have 500 homeruns.

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What I don't get is that Bagwell and Frank Thomas were essentially the same player between 1991 to 2004 until Bagwell's shoulder fell apart.

These are the stats for Bagwell and Thomas during that period:

Bagwell: 2,111 G/7,697 AB/1,506 R/2,289 H/446 HR/1,510 RBI/1,383 BB
Thomas: 1,865 G/6,660 AB/1,269 R/2,050 H/429 HR/1,408 RBI/1,406 BB

Granted Thomas only played in 20 games in 2001 and 74 in 2004, but if we remove those stats for both players for those two years you get:

Bagwell: 1,794 G/6,525 AB/1,276 R/1,964 H/380 HR/1,291 RBI/1,181 BB
Thomas: 1,771 G/6,352 AB/1,208 R/1,970 H/407 HR/1,349 RBI/1,332 BB

Add in that Bagwell played a decent first base and stole 202 bases compared to Thomas' 32 during that stretch, and they should be pretty equal.

Bagwell had a WAR of 79.3 from 1991-2004, Thomas had a WAR of 65.4 for the same period. The only thing that Thomas did different than Bagwell was have a resurgence with Oakland and Toronto at the age of 38/39 when he hit 39 and 26 HRs and batted .270 and .277. Those two seasons essentially got him in on the first ballot.

If Ruth, Mays, and Seaver couldn't get 100% nobody will. Although I think Rivera should get 100% when his eligibility comes. Someone will find something and make sure he doesn't get it.

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Aside from the voters who will not vote for him because of PED suspicions, I think Bagwell gets hurt because he is a first baseman and does not have 500 homeruns. The lazy voters who do not bother digging into the statistics exclude him from the ballot simply because he does not have 500 homeruns.

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What I don't get is that Bagwell and Frank Thomas were essentially the same player between 1991 to 2004 until Bagwell's shoulder fell apart.

These are the stats for Bagwell and Thomas during that period:

Bagwell: 2,111 G/7,697 AB/1,506 R/2,289 H/446 HR/1,510 RBI/1,383 BB
Thomas: 1,865 G/6,660 AB/1,269 R/2,050 H/429 HR/1,408 RBI/1,406 BB

Granted Thomas only played in 20 games in 2001 and 74 in 2004, but if we remove those stats for both players for those two years you get:

Bagwell: 1,794 G/6,525 AB/1,276 R/1,964 H/380 HR/1,291 RBI/1,181 BB
Thomas: 1,771 G/6,352 AB/1,208 R/1,970 H/407 HR/1,349 RBI/1,332 BB

Add in that Bagwell played a decent first base and stole 202 bases compared to Thomas' 32 during that stretch, and they should be pretty equal.

Bagwell had a WAR of 79.3 from 1991-2004, Thomas had a WAR of 65.4 for the same period. The only thing that Thomas did different than Bagwell was have a resurgence with Oakland and Toronto at the age of 38/39 when he hit 39 and 26 HRs and batted .270 and .277. Those two seasons essentially got him in on the first ballot.

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Late career resurgence at 38/39. Sounds like a juicer.

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If Ruth, Mays, and Seaver couldn't get 100% nobody will. Although I think Rivera should get 100% when his eligibility comes. Someone will find something and make sure he doesn't get it.

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I really don't see Rivera being the one to get 100% since he was a reliever. If anyone has a chance other than Griffey, it would be Jeter.

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If Ruth, Mays, and Seaver couldn't get 100% nobody will. Although I think Rivera should get 100% when his eligibility comes. Someone will find something and make sure he doesn't get it.

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I really don't see Rivera being the one to get 100% since he was a reliever. If anyone has a chance other than Griffey, it would be Jeter.

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Jeter is a lock for the HOF, but he is not a great among the greats. Jr is.