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Aside from the voters who will not vote for him because of PED suspicions, I think Bagwell gets hurt because he is a first baseman and does not have 500 homeruns. The lazy voters who do not bother digging into the statistics exclude him from the ballot simply because he does not have 500 homeruns.

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Agreed. I think it's the lack of a milestone and PED suspicions. I know they played different positions, so the comparison isn't really valid, but I was surprised at just how close Bagwell's and Juan Gonzalez' numbers were. Both won MVP awards (Gonzo - 2; Bags - 1). Their 162-game averages are also interesting (Gonzo - .295/42/135; Bags - .297/34/115). Just something that I came across. In no way am I saying Gonzo should be in the Hall, or that Bags shouldn't be. I don't think Gonzo should be anywhere near the Hall, unless he's buying a ticket.

In addition to all the traditional stats, Bagwell is 21st all time in OPS. Look at the names on the list.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_career.shtml

Bagwell now down to 76.7% and Raines down to 75.7% through 206 ballots.

Here's a link to a spreadsheet on the voters, who they voted for, and the percentages each player has...

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!7156&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AC7uZHAmcVGWgwE

It's no longer up to date - you need to click on his twitter link and look at his screen caps as he currently can't save the spreadsheet.

Ahh

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Aside from the voters who will not vote for him because of PED suspicions, I think Bagwell gets hurt because he is a first baseman and does not have 500 homeruns. The lazy voters who do not bother digging into the statistics exclude him from the ballot simply because he does not have 500 homeruns.

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What I don't get is that Bagwell and Frank Thomas were essentially the same player between 1991 to 2004 until Bagwell's shoulder fell apart.

These are the stats for Bagwell and Thomas during that period:

Bagwell: 2,111 G/7,697 AB/1,506 R/2,289 H/446 HR/1,510 RBI/1,383 BB
Thomas: 1,865 G/6,660 AB/1,269 R/2,050 H/429 HR/1,408 RBI/1,406 BB

Granted Thomas only played in 20 games in 2001 and 74 in 2004, but if we remove those stats for both players for those two years you get:

Bagwell: 1,794 G/6,525 AB/1,276 R/1,964 H/380 HR/1,291 RBI/1,181 BB
Thomas: 1,771 G/6,352 AB/1,208 R/1,970 H/407 HR/1,349 RBI/1,332 BB

Add in that Bagwell played a decent first base and stole 202 bases compared to Thomas' 32 during that stretch, and they should be pretty equal.

Bagwell had a WAR of 79.3 from 1991-2004, Thomas had a WAR of 65.4 for the same period. The only thing that Thomas did different than Bagwell was have a resurgence with Oakland and Toronto at the age of 38/39 when he hit 39 and 26 HRs and batted .270 and .277. Those two seasons essentially got him in on the first ballot.

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Aka JUICE

So what time is the official announcement?

5pm...I'm assuming eastern.

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5pm...I'm assuming eastern.

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6pm EST

AVG OBP SLG OPS
.297 .408 .540 948
.284 .370 .538 908


Career stats from two players on this year's ballot. One is a shoe-in, the other is on the fence to make it.

bagwell
Griffey


No question Ken is a first ballot and is a better player than Jeff. BUT you cant deny the similarities in numbers for sure. Hard to compare HRs and RBIs when Ken played 7 more seasons than Jeff. Both had injury issues as well so thats not an argument.

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bagwell
Griffey


No question Ken is a first ballot and is a better player than Jeff. BUT you cant deny the similarities in numbers for sure. Hard to compare HRs and RBIs when Ken played 7 more seasons than Jeff. Both had injury issues as well so thats not an argument.

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AGREED. I was also surprised that Bags had Junior beat in career stolen bases.

Is Bags the only position player to have roids keep him out yet not have 500 HRs?

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Is Bags the only position player to have roids keep him out yet not have 500 HRs?

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He's not a shoe in because he missed that milestone and yet the ones who hit that milestone are all roiders. He's in a lose lose situation.

Bagwell pretty much has better stats across the board than Piazza but may have to wait until year 7 to get in while Piazza will get in in year 4. Guess playing in both LA and NY does wonders for you HOF chances.

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Bagwell pretty much has better stats across the board than Piazza but may have to wait until year 7 to get in while Piazza will get in in year 4. Guess playing in both LA and NY does wonders for you HOF chances.

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To be fair catcher vs first baseman. That is the biggest difference.

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Bagwell pretty much has better stats across the board than Piazza but may have to wait until year 7 to get in while Piazza will get in in year 4. Guess playing in both LA and NY does wonders for you HOF chances.

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Considering that the 4 NY Post voters gave 1 vote to Bagwell and 3 votes to Sheffield, that gives merit to your assumption.

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Also noticed a good number of Boston guys didn't vote for Bagwell. Guess they are still mad about that Larry Anderson for Bagwell trade.

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It's no longer up to date - you need to click on his twitter link and look at his screen caps as he currently can't save the spreadsheet.

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The tracker is finally caught up - 207 ballots

Griffey - 100%
Piazza - 86%
Bagwell - 76.8%
Raines - 75.8%

When is it final?

Some idiot named Jeff Blair voted Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Piazza and Raines but stopped voting for Bagwell this year. What The Ever Loving F???

Idiot is being kind

dude stopped replying to tweets . Buncha people asked why he dropped Bagwell from his ballot.

I mean seriously. I get the whole "I only have 10 votes" argument that Stark makes and that sometimes you have to stop voting for a guy you realize will never make it. But Jeff you mouth breathing moron Blair, you get 10 and you only used 5. In what world where you thought Jeff Bagwell was a HOFer last year but suddenly he's not this year? What did Jeff Bagwell do to you to personally last year where you suddenly decided "nope, not really a HOF candidate any more"? What? Please tell me. Sleep with your wife? Toilet paper you front yard? Not send you a Christmas card this year? Cut in line at Disney World?

He better hope Bagwell doesn't miss it by 1 vote. He will get crucified. It will be so bad he will have to move to Outer Mongolia and live the rest of his life in a yurt milking Yaks for a living.

http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-hall-of-fame-my-final-call.html

I only have an estimate of 450 total ballots, but if he gets 74.6% means he's on 335.7 (can't be true), but he would need 338 to get in. It looks like he's going to be 3 votes short based on this projection. He still has a shot to make it this year. I'm not giving up hope.

Just makes no sense how you can drop a guy that has a legitimate shot from a ballot after voting for him the year before.

211 official votes. Bagwell is up to 77.3%. It's going to be real close. Raines is down to 75.4%.

Edit. Now 212 in. Both got a check. 77.4% and 75.5%

213 in. Both checked. 77.5% and 75.6%.

Mike Piazza & Ken Griffey

71.6% for Bagwell

Ballots Cast: 440 Needed for Election: 330
Votes Percentage
437 Ken Griffey Jr. 99.3%
365 Mike Piazza 83.0%
315 Jeff Bagwell 71.6%
307 Tim Raines 69.8%
296 Trevor Hoffman 67.3%
230 Curt Schilling 52.3%
199 Roger Clemens 45.2%
195 Barry Bonds 44.3%
191 Edgar Martinez 43.4%
189 Mike Mussina 43.0%
180 Alan Trammell 40.9%
150 Lee Smith 34.1%
92 Fred McGriff 20.9%
73 Jeff Kent 16.6%
68 Larry Walker 15.5%
54 Mark McGwire 12.3%
51 Gary Sheffield 11.6%
46 Billy Wagner 10.5%
31 Sammy Sosa 7.0%
11 Jim Edmonds 2.5%
8 Nomar Garciaparra 1.8%
3 Mike Sweeney 0.7%
2 David Eckstein 0.5%
2 Jason Kendall 0.5%
1 Garret Anderson 0.2%
0 Brad Ausmus 0.0%
0 Luis Castillo 0.0%
0 Troy Glaus 0.0%
0 Mark Grudzielanek 0.0%
0 Mike Hampton 0.0%
0 Mike Lowell 0.0%
0 Randy Winn 0.0%

Dammit. Only 2 guys?

Piazza and Jr. Jr was not unanimous. All but 3.

sucks