***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

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W
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2:41p, 3/6/25
AG
Jake might be the worst player in MLB...who gets over 500 plate appearances

that's the problem
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Farmer1906
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2:47p, 3/6/25
AG
Let's talk CFers.

I made this little scatter plot with defense and offense for all CFers who played 400 innings in CF and had at least 400 PA.




A few guys who will not be in CF next season:
  • Aaron Judge
  • Jazz Chisholm
  • Jarren Durran
  • Probably more


I know we like to ***** about Jake, but there are about 15 guys on this chart are below Jake based on 2024 data. Anyone in "Good Defenders, Bad Hitters", "Good to Very Good Defender, Below Avg Hitters", "Bad Defender, Below Avg Hitter".

We all want a good to great hitter that isn't a bad defender in CF. The list of guys like that is short.
  • Julio Rodiguez
  • Parker Meadows (part time CF)
  • Jake McCarthy
  • Cedric Mullins
  • Matt Vierling (part time CF)
  • Corbin Carroll
  • JJ Bleday
  • Jackson Merrill
  • Byron Buxton

I expect guys like Pete Crow Armsttong & Luis Robert Jr to make the jump or jump back on the list, but a few guys could fall off who aren't established (McCarthy, Vierling, Meadows, etc)

My conclusion in all this is that Jake is fine. He fills a roll nicely. If you ever get a plus defender/hitter in CF, sign them long term because they're rare. I think if we want to improve the offense, we should probably look elsewhere (2B, RF, SS)
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 2:52p, 3/6/25
AG
W said:
Jake might be the worst player in MLB...who gets over 500 plate appearances

that's the problem
130 players had at least 500 PA. Jake was 89th in WAR, 116th in OFF, & 17th in DEF. There is zero chance he's the worst player in MLB who gets over 500 PA.
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Beat40
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In reply to W • 2:55p, 3/6/25
W said:
Jake might be the worst player in MLB...who gets over 500 plate appearances

that's the problem
Nah, you guys have a hyperbolic perspective on Jake.

Fangraphs has his 2024 season at 2.0 WAR. ESPN and Baseball Reference have his 2024 season at a 1.7 WAR.

Is he who I would prefer the Astros to have playing CF regularly? No. I'd prefer a platoon.

Is he the worst player in MLB? Far from it.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:00p, 3/6/25
We are not allowed to consider the Astros' worst player in perspective with the entire league, much less his own position. The seemingly worst Astro is certainly one of the worst, if not the outright worst, player in all of MLB.

That's just the way it is, Farmer, and you should know that.
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tjack16
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3:01p, 3/6/25
AG
I will say for as bad as he seems to be, when Jake hits a HR it always seems to go about 425+ feet. It's always a bomb
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MaxPower
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In reply to Beat40 • 3:03p, 3/6/25
I'd feel a lot better if they found a lefty to platoon with him. Even someone like Parker Meadows would be fine by me. In fact the Tigers in general seem like a good trade partner. They have too many lefty bats and we have too many righties.
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:05p, 3/6/25
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to MaxPower • 3:06p, 3/6/25
AG
Bingo.

I posted about Parker as a guy to target last season. Grab him coming back from his issues while the value was low. He crushes righties. And it's funny now to have him on a team with Paredes.
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AggiEE
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 3:07p, 3/6/25
EastCoastAgNc said:


That's the kind of hitter we were desperately missing

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Ag_07
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In reply to tjack16 • 3:08p, 3/6/25
AG
tjack16 said:
I will say for as bad as he seems to be, when Jake hits a HR it always seems to go about 425+ feet. It's always a bomb

I don't the numbers but his batted ball exit velo has to be up there.

Seems like when he does make contact it's a seed. Simple line outs right at an OFer seem to jump off his bat.

Lot of potential just needs it all to click.
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Beat40
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In reply to MaxPower • 3:08p, 3/6/25
MaxPower said:
I'd feel a lot better if they found a lefty to platoon with him. Even someone like Parker Meadows would be fine by me. In fact the Tigers in general seem like a good trade partner. They have too many lefty bats and we have too many righties.
Completely agree. If we had a platoon for Jake, the CF position as a whole would be really strong.
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Beat40
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In reply to Ag_07 • 3:09p, 3/6/25
He needs to be put in to situations where he can succeed. Asking him to take 500 ABs is not that situation.
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:19p, 3/6/25
AG
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:23p, 3/6/25
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 3:24p, 3/6/25
AG
Ag_07 said:
tjack16 said:
I will say for as bad as he seems to be, when Jake hits a HR it always seems to go about 425+ feet. It's always a bomb

I don't the numbers but his batted ball exit velo has to be up there.

Seems like when he does make contact it's a seed. Simple line outs right at an OFer seem to jump off his bat.

Lot of potential just needs it all to click.


Jake was solid offensively the first few months. He had a not great June. Then had the most unlucky July. .240 wOBA with a .338 xwOBA. To put .338 into context, Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Manny Machado, Matt Olson, and Jackson Chourio all finished with a .339-.340 wOBA last year. He completely fell off after that. I think he was pressing and trying to fix a problem that wasn't there.

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MaxPower
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:26p, 3/6/25
I dunno what you can offer them given they are also competitive. Maybe a trade involving Meadows and Sweeney for Pena. Sweeney was a better defender than Pena on a per game basis last year and gives you one more lefty bat to play with and platoon with Dubon.
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Farmer1906
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3:27p, 3/6/25
AG
I think any bye lowing on Meadows has passed now. My next diamond in the rough is Alek Thomas. No reason he shouldn't be available.
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txags92
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:36p, 3/6/25
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Let's talk CFers.

I made this little scatter plot with defense and offense for all CFers who played 400 innings in CF and had at least 400 PA.




I like the visualization on that plot, but since there is nothing else going on, my only nit to pick with it is including Jake in the "great" defender box when he patterns well below the others in it defensively and much closer to guys in the "very good" box. But I would love to see similar plots for our guys at other positions...particularly in the middle infield. It is a very good way to see where guys stand.

That kind of plot would also be a good way to compare the strengths at various positions in the batting order using things like OBA and Slugging or other advanced hitting metrics. Like how does Pena stack up against the rest of the league's 5 hole hitters or 6 hole hitters.
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Beat40
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In reply to AggiEE • 3:42p, 3/6/25
My opinion is last year was organizationally driven which was why Bregman's BBs were down.

I think the pesky type is good as we still have some free swingers ('Tuve, Diaz, and Dubon), but there are still disciplined hitters on the Astros, that I think, bought into an idea from the org and last year looked weird.

Joe's comments about essentially going back to working counts and Farmer showing the complete aberration the Astros were compared to the league all but confirmed last year wasn't brought on by the hitting coaches and everyone being a free swinger.

I'm much less worried about that issue going into the 2025 season.
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texasaggie2015
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3:43p, 3/6/25
AG
It had more to do with pressing after the bad start than anything. Bad habits are hard to break mid season
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iBrad
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3:55p, 3/6/25
AG
One thing to note about Jake. He was supposed to be the 9-hole hitter who probably would have been in more of a rotation. But Chas sucked. Tucker broke his leg. And on top of that, Abreu went into the witness protection program and Bregman hibernated until it warmed up.

Jake got thrust into a more significant role, and I think that contributed to his struggles. He needs to hang out in the 7-8-9 spots and be more of a table setter for the top of the lineup. Not a guy trying to pick up your four and five hole hitters when they don't come through.
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The Original Houston 1836
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4:17p, 3/6/25
so if mr 2015 says walker is already out for 6 weeks, but McTaggart is tweeting that he's just now going to get the MRI done, does that mean that all injury news from teams is total BS? Like they already know the outcome but they send us through this whole song and dance for whatever reason in the media?
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SpaceCityAg05
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4:33p, 3/6/25
AG
Implied in all of this Meyers discussion is that you have to talk about players objectively (in a vacuum) and in terms of fit.

While everyone wants to have prime Griffey roaming CF, that is not an option most of the time. Meyers has a good enough glove that despite the poor offensive production, he has value and is certainly fine for a 9-hole hitter.

Part of the frustration comes in when you try to squeeze in multiple Meyers-type players into the same lineup. That hurts a lineup. Just line Jeremy Pena - he has great value...as long as he is not hitting outside of the bottom third of the order. Pena hitting 6th is vomit-worthy.

A platoon with Jake has always seemed like an obvious, cost-conscious solution, but for whatever reason, we have not been able and/or willing to find a LH partner for him.
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Mr.Bond
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 4:44p, 3/6/25
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:


Dumb question, do they not have MRI machines in west palm beach
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to Mr.Bond • 4:51p, 3/6/25
AG
Mr.Bond said:
EastCoastAgNc said:


Dumb question, do they not have MRI machines in west palm beach

Only the ones in Houston can diagnose discomfort
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txags92
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 5:00p, 3/6/25
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
Mr.Bond said:
EastCoastAgNc said:


Dumb question, do they not have MRI machines in west palm beach

Only the ones in Houston can diagnose discomfort
Ours have a special paste they put on the screen to make sure that the results are inconclusive.

Astros MRI Radiologist:
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redline248
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 5:03p, 3/6/25
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Ag_07 said:
tjack16 said:
I will say for as bad as he seems to be, when Jake hits a HR it always seems to go about 425+ feet. It's always a bomb

I don't the numbers but his batted ball exit velo has to be up there.

Seems like when he does make contact it's a seed. Simple line outs right at an OFer seem to jump off his bat.

Lot of potential just needs it all to click.


Jake was solid offensively the first few months. He had a not great June. Then had the most unlucky July. .240 wOBA with a .338 xwOBA. To put .338 into context, Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Manny Machado, Matt Olson, and Jackson Chourio all finished with a .339-.340 wOBA last year. He completely fell off after that. I think he was pressing and trying to fix a problem that wasn't there.

29th Percentile in average exit velocity last year, according to statcast. 39th in barrel percent. He hits the occasional bomb, but the majority of his batted balls are "topped" for ground balls.

Maybe Farmer is right and he was unlucky and all that.
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EastCoastAgNc
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5:09p, 3/6/25
AG
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Hornbeck
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In reply to Mr.Bond • 5:23p, 3/6/25
AG
Mr.Bond said:
EastCoastAgNc said:


Dumb question, do they not have MRI machines in west palm beach


So, September? Kinds like Tucker's bone bruise?
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EastCoastAgNc
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5:24p, 3/6/25
AG
Smith singled opposite field, Yanier groundout to move him over, Singleton hits a single to center that should have been caught but Siri happened, Astros up 1-0. In the bottom of the inning, Rodgers makes an incredible play at 2nd to get an out.


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Ag4life80
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5:26p, 3/6/25
AG
Jake is an interesting case. When he was called up, he was on path to make a run for the triple crown in AAA. He was dominating offensively. He then earns the starting CF job on the best team in baseball. When he got hot last year, it appeared as though he was not thinking, just attacking. Then his head got in the way. Woof
That injury and surgery was a *****.
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EastCoastAgNc
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5:28p, 3/6/25
AG
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EastCoastAgNc
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5:35p, 3/6/25
AG
Rodgers strikes out. Quincy Hamilton got on base but got caught stealing yet never even tried to slide into 2nd. Melton strikes out.
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EastCoastAgNc
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5:51p, 3/6/25
AG
Another RBI for Cam...108EV straight at the 3rd baseman

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