***** Official Houston Astros 2024-2025 Offseason Thread *****

332,476 Views | 3826 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by tjack16
EastCoastAgNc
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The Porkchop Express
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agproducer said:

Some love for Bobby Abreu. He is criminally underrated.


If you ever want to get morbidly depressed, think about the late 90s / early 00s Astros if we hadn't let Abreu go for nothing and traded Kenny Lofton for Eddie Taubensee.


Life is better with a beagle
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

The more I look at it, the more I don't see how we stay under with any significant signing.

Baseball Prospectus has us at 241.9 M

If we trade Pressly & Caratini we get down to 221.9 M. We would have win a few arbitration cases and then trade someone like Chad or Jake to safety stay under the tax & function normally.
Here's the real question: Would you wait until after 2025 when you have a lot more cap space to make the big signing?

Here's a list of possible 2026 OF & pitcher free agents. Some interesting names on that list.
2025-26 MLB Free Agents

I could absolutely see Crane not wanting to go over the luxury tax for a guy like Santander (unless there is some offset like the Pressly & Caratini trade), trying to find some guys during the trade deadline, and then putting money into a big FA or two during the 2026 FA period.
txags92
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texasaggie2015 said:

Just happy to be here
Hope you can help the ball club?
texasaggie2015
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Lofton was always one of my favorite players.
texasaggie2015
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txags92 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Just happy to be here
Hope you can help the ball club?
Excited to get to work and be a part of this winning culture
Hornbeck
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I don't feel so bad for him. The Astros made him a more than fair offer, and him and Boras chose the open market.

At this point, I'm betting he gets a few "prove it" offers, and when he gets off to another slow start, he won't be "proving it".
txags92
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texasaggie2015 said:

txags92 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Just happy to be here
Hope you can help the ball club?
Excited to get to work and be a part of this winning culture
Just take things one game at a time and the good Lord willing, everything will work out alright.
Wabs
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txags92 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

txags92 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Just happy to be here
Hope you can help the ball club?
Excited to get to work and be a part of this winning culture
Just take things one game at a time and the good Lord willing, everything will work out alright.
This team has the potential to be very special and I'm just happy to be a small part of it.
Farmer1906
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99% fake but…

Mathguy64
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There is a way to sign a player like Santander and stay under the cap.

It would involve redoing existing deals to make deferred money. You free up cash now and immediately lower the AAV of all players on those deals. Then sign Santander to a deferred deal.
Beat40
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Mathguy64 said:

There is a way to sign a player like Santander and stay under the cap.

It would involve redoing existing deals to make deferred money. You free up cash now and immediately lower the AAV of all players on those deals. Then sign Santander to a deferred deal.
Who are you asking to do a deferred money deal?

Hader? Altuve? LMJ?

Doesn't feel like you can Walker since you just signed him.
MaxPower
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Or you can trade Framber
Wabs
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MaxPower said:

Or you can trade Framber
Mathguy64
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Beat40 said:

Mathguy64 said:

There is a way to sign a player like Santander and stay under the cap.

It would involve redoing existing deals to make deferred money. You free up cash now and immediately lower the AAV of all players on those deals. Then sign Santander to a deferred deal.
Who are you asking to do a deferred money deal?

Hader? Altuve? LMJ?

Doesn't feel like you can Walker since you just signed him.


Ask everyone on the club. Seriously. You say "your contract is $X. We will offer $1.2X if you agree to defer more than half of it with a start date of 10 years from today"

Walker should have been offered that before he even signed.

Overpay over the life of the contract while deferring a large part of it. Just kick the can down the road. Way down the road.
Farmer1906
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Won't the present day values still be similar to what the contracts are now?
Mathguy64
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Farmer1906 said:

Won't the present day values still be similar to what the contracts are now?


Shohei has a 10 year, $70MM/year contract. The cash out is $700MM with $680 deferred for 10 years. His AAV for each of the 10 years is something like $46MM/yr.

Yes they pay the full value of the contract but they have 10 years of TVM to get it. So the PV is significantly less. And the AAV is created based on the PV divided over the 10 years. The league is saying the contract value is $460MM. I think the dodgers will actually make money if they put $460MM in the market at normal RoR. I don't have my calculator at hand but that's something like 8% compounded.

ETA. Hell, they could get a loan for $300MM on a 15 year payoff , stick it in the market for 15 years and come close to paying Shohei and the loan off.
James Forsyth
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User name indeed checks out.
MaxPower
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Yes but if we gave Walker $75M with a bunch deferred then it may wind up being the same $60M current value he is getting now. I don't think it's the huge advantage you think it is. The only one that's a major "deal" is Ohtani and it seems pretty clear he wanted to be in LA and given the other option in that city…..
EastCoastAgNc
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tjack16
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I actually think Boston would be the best place for Alex to go. He hits really well at Fenway and you can't get much better for a baseball town than that.
redline248
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At this point it just seems like Bregman is waiting on Boston to give him the right numbers
Farmer1906
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If Bregman wants any shot at the HOF his choice is Boston. He just needs to ball out for 2 seasons then stay above average for 3-4 more. If Boston wins a title, he's a lock.
Sher Thing
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Yeah, Boston is the only place that makes any sense for Bregman. But Devers has made it pretty clear he doesn't want to move from 3B right? Would Bregman place 2B?
f1ghtintexasaggie
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I don't see any chance for Bregs in the HOF, let alone a lock. What criteria are you using to come to that conclusion? He'd have to reproduce 2019 for those two years to even sniff it. Classic HoVG.
f1ghtintexasaggie
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And ESPECIALLY not with 2017 hanging around his neck like a boat anchor to the petty MLB journos that have the vote.
AggiEE
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Yeah I don't see Breggy making the HoF with his career numbers
Farmer1906
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f1ghtintexasaggie said:

I don't see any chance for Bregs in the HOF, let alone a lock. What criteria are you using to come to that conclusion? He'd have to reproduce 2019 for those two years to even sniff it. Classic HoVG.


He's at 40 WAR.

If he has 2 big seasons (5-6 WAR ea), then finishes his 6 year contract with 2-3 WAR seasons, he'll end up around 60-65 WAR for the career.

If we assume he's in the postseason a few times, he'll co time to climb some all time lists.

Scott Rolen just made the HOF with 69 WAR and a 122 wRC+. Bregman sits at 40 WAR with a 135 wRC+.

Do I think it's likely? No. But it's possible in Boston. I don't think it is in Detroit or Toronto.
TarponChaser
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Farmer1906 said:

f1ghtintexasaggie said:

I don't see any chance for Bregs in the HOF, let alone a lock. What criteria are you using to come to that conclusion? He'd have to reproduce 2019 for those two years to even sniff it. Classic HoVG.


He's at 40 WAR.

If he has 2 big seasons (5-6 WAR ea), then finishes his 6 year contract with 2-3 WAR seasons, he'll end up around 60-65 WAR for the career.

If we assume he's in the postseason a few times, he'll co time to climb some all time lists.

Scott Rolen just made the HOF with 69 WAR and a 122 wRC+. Bregman sits at 40 WAR with a 135 wRC+.

Do I think it's likely? No. But it's possible in Boston. I don't think it is in Detroit or Toronto.
Rolen was an 8x GG with over 300 HR and nearly 1300 RBIs. I think his defensive reputation would also be considered better than Bregman too.

And I thought Rolen was a borderline HOF guy when he got in. I don't see it for Bregman anywhere he goes.
superaggie73
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TarponChaser said:

Farmer1906 said:

f1ghtintexasaggie said:

I don't see any chance for Bregs in the HOF, let alone a lock. What criteria are you using to come to that conclusion? He'd have to reproduce 2019 for those two years to even sniff it. Classic HoVG.


He's at 40 WAR.

If he has 2 big seasons (5-6 WAR ea), then finishes his 6 year contract with 2-3 WAR seasons, he'll end up around 60-65 WAR for the career.

If we assume he's in the postseason a few times, he'll co time to climb some all time lists.

Scott Rolen just made the HOF with 69 WAR and a 122 wRC+. Bregman sits at 40 WAR with a 135 wRC+.

Do I think it's likely? No. But it's possible in Boston. I don't think it is in Detroit or Toronto.
Rolen was an 8x GG with over 300 HR and nearly 1300 RBIs. I think his defensive reputation would also be considered better than Bregman too.

And I thought Rolen was a borderline HOF guy when he got in. I don't see it for Bregman anywhere he goes.



I don't think Rolen should have even sniffed the Hall of Fame. He was always the very definition of good but not great.
Farmer1906
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Bregman's peak offensively is better than Rolen even tho Rolen played during the steroid era. Breggy only needs to average 18 HR a season over the next 6 to reach 300.

Rolen had the edge defensively but Bregman is no slouch defensively.

This is a what if scenario that isn't likely to happen. My point is there is a realistic scenario where it does because of where Bregman plays and what stadium he's playing in.
The Porkchop Express
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The "problem" we have thinking our guys are potential HOFers is their extended post-season #s, which don't count for much in the eyes of most HOF voters.

Playing and extra 10-20 games a year in prime time with few others teams playing makes our guys seem better than they are.

Verlander and Altuve will make it assuming Jose stays helathy.

Nobody else is even on the path. Yordan is a great player, but he's never led the league in a single category. He'd need to average 34 HR a year for the next 10 years to get to 500 HR.
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Farmer1906
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superaggie73 said:

TarponChaser said:

Farmer1906 said:

f1ghtintexasaggie said:

I don't see any chance for Bregs in the HOF, let alone a lock. What criteria are you using to come to that conclusion? He'd have to reproduce 2019 for those two years to even sniff it. Classic HoVG.


He's at 40 WAR.

If he has 2 big seasons (5-6 WAR ea), then finishes his 6 year contract with 2-3 WAR seasons, he'll end up around 60-65 WAR for the career.

If we assume he's in the postseason a few times, he'll co time to climb some all time lists.

Scott Rolen just made the HOF with 69 WAR and a 122 wRC+. Bregman sits at 40 WAR with a 135 wRC+.

Do I think it's likely? No. But it's possible in Boston. I don't think it is in Detroit or Toronto.
Rolen was an 8x GG with over 300 HR and nearly 1300 RBIs. I think his defensive reputation would also be considered better than Bregman too.

And I thought Rolen was a borderline HOF guy when he got in. I don't see it for Bregman anywhere he goes.



I don't think Rolen should have even sniffed the Hall of Fame. He was always the very definition of good but not great.


Fair but there was/is a major need for 3B there. We just happen to be living in an era of 3B with Arenado, Machado, Ramirez, Donaldson, Chapman, Devers, & Bregman.
MaxPower
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I always thought Rolen was a great player, he just seemed to be hurt a lot. He's kind of the Correa of 20 years ago.
Farmer1906
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Yordan is 10000% on the path. It's not even a little close. A 166 wRC+ thru his age 21-26 seasons is elite.
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