2026 Win Over/Unders (@FanDuel):

103½ LAD
92½ NYY
90½ NYM
89½ ATL PHI SEA
88½ CHC TOR
87½ BOS
86½ HOU SD
85½ BAL
83½ DET MIL
82½ KC TEX
81½ CIN
80½ CLE SF
79½ ARI
76½ PIT TB
75½ ATH
73½ MIN
72½ MIA
70½ STL
69½ LAA
65½ WSH
64½ CWS
51½ COL

What's the best bet here?

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 28, 2026

EastCoastAgNc said:

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2026 Win Over/Unders (@FanDuel):

103½ LAD
92½ NYY
90½ NYM
89½ ATL PHI SEA
88½ CHC TOR
87½ BOS
86½ HOU SD
85½ BAL
83½ DET MIL
82½ KC TEX
81½ CIN
80½ CLE SF
79½ ARI
76½ PIT TB
75½ ATH
73½ MIN
72½ MIA
70½ STL
69½ LAA
65½ WSH
64½ CWS
51½ COL

What's the best bet here?

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 28, 2026

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I'll take the over on the Astros but not by much.

88-74 is my pick with getting the final wild card spot

Thats a lot of wins in the AL East.

Wabs said:

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I'd take the over on the A's

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First thing that came to my mind. I'll take the over on the A's and the under on the NYY.

The Giants have intensified talks with Framber Valdez, per @hgomez27 pic.twitter.com/4zDOpHPXq0

— SleeperSFGiants (@SleeperSFGiants) January 29, 2026

Keith Law of the Athletic has us 28/30 in farm systems. Hard to argue with a lot.

Astros-related because of Doc Gooden. Thought you guys would enjoy.

21 year old Barry Bonds vs 21 year old Dwight Gooden (1986) pic.twitter.com/jcbENlr4jd

— OldTimeHardball (@OleTimeHardball) January 28, 2026

Buster Posey is the go-to GM for all free agents

Overall, I think this is true. But there are some exceptions out there.

Miguel Ullola - He's got high-end potential at a starter and as a reliever. I hope we see him in 2026.
Kevin Alvarez - Long ways away, but he's only 18.
Xavier Neyens - Already mentioned.
Alimber Santa - Similar to Ullola, if he can throw enough strikes, the stuff is real.

Farmer1906 said:

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Overall, I think this is true. But there are some exceptions out there.

Miguel Ullola - He's got high-end potential at a starter and as a reliever. I hope we see him in 2026.
Kevin Alvarez - Long ways away, but he's only 18.
Xavier Neyens - Already mentioned.
Alimber Santa - Similar to Ullola, if he can throw enough strikes, the stuff is real.

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The entire farm system seems to be very high ceiling and low floor.

The good: If just a few of them reach their ceiling (or close to it), we will be in very good shape. Hell, even two of them brekaing out would change the entire outlook.
The bad: It's possible none of them pan out. Same can be said for any specific prospect, but the floor is pretty darn low for a lot of these guys.

texasaggie2015 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Overall, I think this is true. But there are some exceptions out there.

Miguel Ullola - He's got high-end potential at a starter and as a reliever. I hope we see him in 2026.
Kevin Alvarez - Long ways away, but he's only 18.
Xavier Neyens - Already mentioned.
Alimber Santa - Similar to Ullola, if he can throw enough strikes, the stuff is real.

---

The entire farm system seems to be very high ceiling and low floor.

The good: If just a few of them reach their ceiling (or close to it), we will be in very good shape. Hell, even two of them brekaing out would change the entire outlook.
The bad: It's possible none of them pan out. Same can be said for any specific prospect, but the floor is pretty darn low for a lot of these guys.

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Do you or your insiders disagree with the Athletic article? Maybe I read it wrong, because I interpreted Law's analysis as the opposite- the system has more prospects with a higher floor and lower ceiling, meaning the philosophy has been to find "safer" prospects. McCormick and Arrighetti come to mind. Decent players, but nothing that will anchor or lead a contender.

Chas is 100% pure development magic from our org.

Marvin said:

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It will be a painful and long rebuild if done through the draft. The deadline trades and draft pick forfeitures dug a monumental hole. I had not considered the draft philosophy mentioned in that article, but it sums up the organization's entire talent pool once you get past the few remaining veterans. Losing Brown and Peña via free agency will probably be the final nails in the golden era coffin. The Astros will be staring at a full house rotation (4/4/5/5/5) and snake-eyes lineup, lol.

That said, Dana will be able to focus on his supposed strength of stocking talent.

But, in the meantime, I'm excited to see what this team can do with a healthy roster!

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So that begs the question, do we trade Pena & Brown to blow it all up and start stockpiling draft picks and prospects again in looking to rebuild with an eye on 2028 and beyond after the inevitable strike/lockout?

I'm torn because I still think we can contend with what we've got now if dudes get healthy and stay healthy but I can see dark times in the not too distant future.

TarponChaser said:

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Marvin said:

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It will be a painful and long rebuild if done through the draft. The deadline trades and draft pick forfeitures dug a monumental hole. I had not considered the draft philosophy mentioned in that article, but it sums up the organization's entire talent pool once you get past the few remaining veterans. Losing Brown and Peña via free agency will probably be the final nails in the golden era coffin. The Astros will be staring at a full house rotation (4/4/5/5/5) and snake-eyes lineup, lol.

That said, Dana will be able to focus on his supposed strength of stocking talent.

But, in the meantime, I'm excited to see what this team can do with a healthy roster!

---

So that begs the question, do we trade Pena & Brown to blow it all up and start stockpiling draft picks and prospects again in looking to rebuild with an eye on 2028 and beyond after the inevitable strike/lockout?

I'm torn because I still think we can contend with what we've got now if dudes get healthy and stay healthy but I can see dark times in the not too distant future.

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Interesting question. I assume the minor leagues would continue during a lockout, except for any prospects on the 40-man roster. If the Astros are down at the deadline and a shutdown looms, why not? Take advantage of the reset and let the prospects develop for a free year. We can enjoy reading the "Meet your 2030 WS champions" articles that may be written, lol.

It seems like a huge gamble, although we may see a few teams with nothing to lose try it.

TarponChaser said:

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Marvin said:

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It will be a painful and long rebuild if done through the draft. The deadline trades and draft pick forfeitures dug a monumental hole. I had not considered the draft philosophy mentioned in that article, but it sums up the organization's entire talent pool once you get past the few remaining veterans. Losing Brown and Peña via free agency will probably be the final nails in the golden era coffin. The Astros will be staring at a full house rotation (4/4/5/5/5) and snake-eyes lineup, lol.

That said, Dana will be able to focus on his supposed strength of stocking talent.

But, in the meantime, I'm excited to see what this team can do with a healthy roster!

---

So that begs the question, do we trade Pena & Brown to blow it all up and start stockpiling draft picks and prospects again in looking to rebuild with an eye on 2028 and beyond after the inevitable strike/lockout?

I'm torn because I still think we can contend with what we've got now if dudes get healthy and stay healthy but I can see dark times in the not too distant future.

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Honestly, if we had not been in 1st place at the ASB last year with the series wins we had leading up to it, last year prior to the deadline was the time to get started. Going 19-7 in June and 8-1 against the Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers in a 2 week span at the end of June and beginning of July with a team of AAAA all stars was probably the worst thing that could have happened although it was great fun at the time. Without that stretch that turned out to be an aberration in our season, we would have likely gone into the trade deadline in 2nd or 3rd place in the division and a record a few games over .500.

In that scenario, we could have traded Framber for a nice haul before he cratered his value, and gone into the offseason looking for chances to trade a few more high value players we don't think we can re-sign like Brown and Pena to build a really solid nucleus of young players and prospects with a target towards 2028. Knowing that 2027 is likely to be a lost season, who is now going to give you a big haul for Brown or Pena at the deadline in 2026 or after the 2026 season? We lost a lot of trade value there and in letting Framber go without trading him, (which is understandable given where we were in contention at the time). Rebuilding solely through the draft is going to be very slow and exceptionally painful, but I am not sure how much we can get going into 2027 for the pieces we still have to trade?

Marvin said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Marvin said:

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It will be a painful and long rebuild if done through the draft. The deadline trades and draft pick forfeitures dug a monumental hole. I had not considered the draft philosophy mentioned in that article, but it sums up the organization's entire talent pool once you get past the few remaining veterans. Losing Brown and Peña via free agency will probably be the final nails in the golden era coffin. The Astros will be staring at a full house rotation (4/4/5/5/5) and snake-eyes lineup, lol.

That said, Dana will be able to focus on his supposed strength of stocking talent.

But, in the meantime, I'm excited to see what this team can do with a healthy roster!

---

So that begs the question, do we trade Pena & Brown to blow it all up and start stockpiling draft picks and prospects again in looking to rebuild with an eye on 2028 and beyond after the inevitable strike/lockout?

I'm torn because I still think we can contend with what we've got now if dudes get healthy and stay healthy but I can see dark times in the not too distant future.

---

Interesting question. I assume the minor leagues would continue during a lockout, except for any prospects on the 40-man roster. If the Astros are down at the deadline and a shutdown looms, why not? Take advantage of the reset and let the prospects develop for a free year. We can enjoy reading the "Meet your 2030 WS champions" articles that may be written, lol.

It seems like a huge gamble, although we may see a few teams with nothing to lose try it.

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Unfortunately, the value you are going to get for Pena at the 2026 deadline is pretty minimal because with a shutdown looming for 2027, he is basically an end of season rental. Same for Paredes if we don't trade him in the next week or two. Brown will be valued as a 1 year guy (2028). This offseason was the time to do it if we wanted to get top value from those guys. I don't see Crane agreeing to do it even at the deadline in 2026, so I think it is a moot point. I am expecting 2028-2030 to look pretty bleak if we can't make some really savvy deals.

going back to the projected win total for 2026...

Astros' win totals the past 3 seasons:

2023 --> 90 wins
2024 --> 88 wins
2025 --> 87 wins

so 86 would fit the pattern

A thought just occurred to me regarding the draft and a retool. Framber has the QO tag, so we get a draft pick back.

I wonder if his mental behavior plus the QO tag will scare enough people away that he doesnt end up signing until after the draft when the QO goes away. We saw teams do that with Keuchel and Kimbrel because of the QO alone.

I think Dana has focused on high ceiling low floor - that's what I've been told at least.

I need the offseason to do something good or at least entertaining.

Sources: the Astros and Giants are nearing a trade that would send right-hander Kai-Wei Teng to Houston in exchange for catching prospect Jancel Villareal. Teng is an optionable swingman who can pitch out of the rotation or within a bullpen that could use more right-handed depth

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 30, 2026

The Astros are designating J.P. France for assignment, source tells @TheAthletic. That presumably will clear a 40-man roster spot for Kai-Wei Teng, whom Houston is on the verge of acquiring from the San Francisco Giants.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 30, 2026

Hmmmm......his stats don't look good.....but he's only 25.

Do the astros think they can turn him around? Didn't give up much for him, though now we lose JP France so I guess we think he has higher upside?

you can assume that for most orgs

Tom Cosgrove to Astros. The LHP makes $900K if in majors. MLB camp invite.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 30, 2026