I'll jump in with an answer, I'm no 59, but I stayed in a Holiday Inn. I think with direct competitors looking to get even further behind there's less downside risk to holding shares at least 1 year versus selling late this year. I have a sell order for 1/4 of my shares that I've moved up to $85, but I'm planning on keeping the others longer. I've got calls expiring later this year and in January that I will be selling as short-term gains as well. If there does end up being a quick run up anywhere near $100 after earnings and I'll be buying the Pappy.

PWestAg18 said:

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59 South,

Curious what your latest take on AMD is after the big jump on Friday. Does Intel crapping the bed on their 7 nm chip change any of the analysis you've previously given on this thread? I got in at $52 on AMD back in June, will probably hold until December and see if it hits $100 by then. But if Intel's struggles continue pushing AMD up I might as well just hold it for a full year and cash out after 12 months with the lower tax burden.

Edit: accidentally put IBM instead of Intel

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Yea somewhat for sure; it does change things a bit for the better. From a pure technical standpoint the max reasonable upside was and still is about 100 by the end of the year. But the fundamentals are now better which could really blow out the technical in a good way. Earnings today should give a good indication. If something crazy happened like blowing past 100, then that's a game changer, and you get into blue sky territory. And then things can get silly, but it's not really there yet. If you're curious on fundamentals go read some of aggiedaniel's posts on the other thread.

I expected a technical breakout over 60, but the INTC news just really made it more profound. So we'll see what earnings does to it. You never know especially now... could explode more and run, could explode and sell off, could be a sell the news which would give a good opportunity to add.

For all of us that entered in the 50s though, we have a lot of buffer as well as upside so I'm just sitting on mine for now (I'm about $55 average). A little bummed because I only ended up getting 70% of my planned max position. I missed the last 30% due to the AH news last week that sent it soaring. I may pick that part up at some point if it looks ripe for adding.

All my shares are in retirement accounts so I don't have to consider taxes, and I can only sell calls on 1/7 of current shares in Roth vs 401k where I can't. So my situation and decision making will be different than yours.

From past experiences, I'm pretty convinced that you shouldn't really worry about taxes most of the time. If you want to hold it forever, then just hold, but if it explodes and you want to take some profits to be responsible, then taxes really shouldn't be a consideration unless you're trading six figure positions or more. That's just me though. It just tends to over-complicate things to me, and I end up holding too long when I knew I should have sold. I'd rather sell and pay Uncle Sam some instead of selling later at a loss!

Also agree with all of what BK's Liver says (ha, that's pretty funny to type out Love ya Bob!)

rlag09 said:

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Anyone looking at Kodak after the news about federal loan?

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Not after I missed out on the +203% day.

WGann3 said:

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rlag09 said:

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Anyone looking at Kodak after the news about federal loan?

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Not after I missed out on the +203% day.

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Or you could have missed the 203% day and jumped on it for another 100+% surge today. Good gracious.

59 South said:

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Here's my current longs and what I'm eyeing. Please note these are mostly multi-month or even multi-year holds:

Current holds:

• AMZN - if you own it, just hold it. It's going to 3000+. I finally gave in a couple of years ago and loaded up under 1600. It has broken the consolidation phase and is off. I'm not fighting it and could very well hold for another decade+.
• JD - I'm still eyeing 65 soon for a likely fully out exit or at least half+. Needs to get back over 60 and not have a close under 57. If it does, I'd probably take that and run. It could keep going, but I'd then look to buy back under 50. Needs to cool off but could also keep this parabolic trend going for longer. I'm too exposed to China so need an excuse to lower exposure and 90% gains is good enough to smile and walk away.
• SQ - I had planned to sell around 90-100, but I've decided to just let it run. With a macro tail wind, this thing could go to 200+. This breakout over 100 after the 18+ month consolidation is mega bullish. Look at 2017-2018 to see what it is capable of. It just needs to hold over 100 although a back test of it is almost certain. I won't be surprised to see it run to 120 or so and then pull back to test 100 before taking off. Who knows though... I'm not too concerned at watching it day to day UNLESS it gets and stays back below 100.
• ROKU - well known here about the potential. Holding for 250-300 to sell all and then look for 120-150 pullback to buy it back. Crazy huh? But it just loves to triple and then halve. The big boys have caught onto this and are manipulating it so I'm just going to go with that until it stops repeating.
• NIO - What a ride. I think 8.75-9.50 may be a good area to start limiting some exposure likely with some 'net free' selling combined with covered calls out a few weeks or so. It could go way higher though. Potential to 25-30 in the next year or two. High risk so proceed accordingly.

Watchlist:

• AMD - I'm probably going to buy this today or later this week in the mid 50s. Not looking for a perfect entry. Nice cup and handle with handle box clear as day between lower and upper 50s. Any close 60+, and it's off with potential leg up to 100. 50 is the line in the sand though. Could go sideways longer so I'm avoiding options on it.
• WKHS - Small cap so being cautious. It's been on a tear lately. I'd be more active trading it. Pullback to 3.75-4.25 range at the moment would be an entry worth considering. From there it could easily get to 10-12 before slowing down.

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You had a hell of a month if you picked the stocks recommended by 59. Mind if I ask what steps and setup you are looking for in order to enter into a longer term trade?

I know practically nothing about investing so when I graduated and had been working for almost year I asked my grandpa on what he suggested I do. He suggested I invest in ETFs and index funds to get started and just hold on to them.

I open up a 403b and buy a bunch of Fidelity index funds. About a year goes by and I decided I needed to open a Roth. I open one (here is the funny/embarrassing part) and I wanted to fill it with a S&P Index fund since I mostly have NASDAQ in my other account. I didn't hardly do any research at all. I just typed "S&P Index" into Google and it came up with SPGI. It was December so I just maxed out my ROTH all at once with SPGI.

I have held onto it and been maxing out my ROTH for the last 20 months putting 80% into SPGI. Well I just found out yesterday that SPGI actually isn't an index fund and I just now know what it is. I put a huge chunk of my savings into a single stock and I didn't even know what it was.

I got really lucky however, because my original investment is up 113% in a 20 month span and in total I am up 59%! I tell you all of this in hopes that you might get a laugh out of it, but also to ask what the boards opinion of SPGI is. I haven't seen anyone mention it in the thread.

Should I hold on entirely to it or diversify it?

I think you know the answer to your question. I also think you should act quickly in this volatile market

I would sell it pretty quickly and get into something you know