We all know we are waiting for Bobinator's and ColleyvilleAg's bubble watch and seeding, but I finally rebooted my model this week and without further wait, and before our big games this week, I wanted to throw out my projections as of now:

1 seeds (Michigan and Arizona are really tight for the overall no. 1, Duke is a clear 3rd, and then there is a huge dropoff)
Michigan
Arizona
Duke
UConn

SEC Teams (projection at 9 teams)
Vandy - 3 seed
Florida - 4 seed
Tennessee - 5 seed
Alabama - 5 seed
Arkansas - 6 seed
Texas A&M - 7 seed
Kentucky - 8 seed
Auburn - 9 seed
Georgia - 10 seed

Highest NET team left out is Texas at 38

LouisvilleAg said:

---

We all know we are waiting for Bobinator's and ColleyvilleAg's bubble watch and seeding, but I finally rebooted my model this week and without further wait, and before our big games this week, I wanted to throw out my projections as of now:

1 seeds (Michigan and Arizona are really tight for the overall no. 1, Duke is a clear 3rd, and then there is a huge dropoff)
Michigan
Arizona
Duke
UConn

SEC Teams (projection at 9 teams)
Vandy - 3 seed
Florida - 4 seed
Tennessee - 5 seed
Alabama - 5 seed
Arkansas - 6 seed
Texas A&M - 7 seed
Kentucky - 8 seed
Auburn - 9 seed
Georgia - 10 seed

Highest NET team left out is Texas at 38

---

Think Texas is in your first 4 out? To me I think they're a play-in team if the tournament were to start today. They did beat UGA and Vandy pretty handily. I know they've got some bad losses but that's why I'm saying I'd have them in as a play-in but I could see them being left out too.

They also won at Alabama.

Very strange resume though. Ultimately avoided disaster last night but they have some tricky games left for a team that can't really afford any slip ups.

Forgot they beat Bama. Like you said it's a very odd resume. Played Duke tight early, but their best OOC win would be NC State with a bad loss to ASU.

Based on their predictive metrics, I think they will ultimately make the tournament. But some of this predictive stuff has to show on their resume metrics.

Predictive Metrics
KenPom - 34
BPI - 35
T-Rank - 37

Resume Metrics
SOR - 54
WAB - 59
KPI - 63