bobinator said:

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I still want to know the methodology behind this "model"

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Its a secret....shhh

bobinator said:

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I still want to know the methodology behind this "model"

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It is mainly the six above metrics and information from the quads. I try to figure out every previous year how to weight each metric and every year it seems to change. I was pretty close last year but there was still some head scratchers.

I know they released the women's top 16 seeds, but I haven't seen the men's version released yet. Thought it would have come out this past weekend. Hopefully next and then I can go in and figure out the weight that should be put behind each metric.

I think you need to break Quad 1 into Quad 1A and Quad 1B like it is on the team sheet and that would help a lot

I think that's the biggest mistake people make when looking at this thing is grouping the Quad 1 games the same. I'd probably actually break Quad 1 into three categories.

Regular Quad 1 games, home or away
Quad 1A games
What you might call a Quad1A+ bonus: Top Ten NET road wins.

That, I might be able to do.

Huge win by Iowa St. Over Houston!

I think I'd have Auburn below Mizzou now with the Tigers' win against Vandy and Auburn's loss to Miss. State.

Same number of Quad 1 wins at 4 (and 3 Quad 1A wins to 2 for Auburn) and they're 7-8 in Quad 1 & 2 to 6-12 for Auburn.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47809690/bubble-watch-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions-2026

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

NET is still lagging but higher NET ranked teams are left out in favor of lower ranked ones every year. We'll see what Lunardi, Palm, and bracket matrix think about it.

I added Q1A to my model and here is the seeding that my model is spitting out:

Florida - 3 - 2-3 Q1A
Alabama - 4 - 3-5 Q1A
Vanderbilt - 4 - 1-3 Q1A
Tennessee - 5 - 4-5 Q1A
Arkansas - 5 - 3-6 Q1A
Kentucky - 7 - 3-6 Q1A
A&M - 9 - 3-4 Q1A
Texas - 10 - 2-5 Q1A
Georgia - 10 - 1-3 Q1A
Missouri - 10 - 3-3 Q1A
Auburn - 11 - 2-8 Q1A

Auburn is in deep trouble. Might be able to lose one more and keep that 11 seed but I don't see a sub 500 SEC team making it this year.

Yeah, not a good start for Pearl Jr.

The preview of the 16 top teams finally came out. So that helps me make some adjustments to my model. Here is how the bubble looks not counting any of today's games:

9 - Miami, FL
9 - SMU
9 - Georgia
9 - UCF

Last 4 Byes
10 - Texas A&M
10 - Texas
10 - USC
10 - Missouri

Last 4 In
11 - Santa Clara
11 - Auburn
11 - Indiana
11 - New Mexico

First 3 Out - It really ends after these 3
Ohio State
VCU
UCLA

Everyone else will have to win out in the regular season to get into the conversation. And of course, there is always a few bid stealers.

Only two mid-major teams that can withstand a bid thief is Utah State (Mountain West) and Saint Louis (A-10). And for the West Coast Conference, anyone outside Gonzaga and St. Mary's (and maybe Santa Clara) would be a bid stealer. The other inverse bid stealer might be Miami (OH). If they go undefeated in the regular season but lose in the conference tourney, they might be a bid thief as they currently would not make it as an at large.

So as I can see it now, there is a max of 4 bid thieves unless one of the power conference teams has a Cinderella run in the conference tourney. So definitely want to stay no lower than the 10 seed to make sure you make the dance.

Here is the update after last night's game.

SEC Teams
2 - Florida
4 - Vandy
4 - Bama
5 - Arkansas
5 - Tennessee
8 - Kentucky
9 - Texas A&M
10 - Georgia
10 - Missouri
11 - Auburn
11 - Texas

The Bubble
9 Seeds
Miami (FL)
Clemson
UCLA
Texas A&M

10 Seeds
Georgia
Santa Clara
Missouri
SMU

11 Seeds (Play in Games)
Auburn
Indiana
TCU
Texas

First Four Out
New Mexico
Virginia Tech
San Diego State
Ohio State

Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

TombstoneTex said:

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Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

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11 seeds can get bumped if enough bids get stolen

Which is the only reason to not want to be an 11 seed

A fact to keep in mind of how corrupt and biased the selection process is: in the last 40 years, a team from the Big 10 has won the tourney only 3 times (none since 2000). Kentucky and Florida have won the tourney the same number, individually, in that same time span.

LouisvilleAg said:

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TombstoneTex said:

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Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

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We certainly want to avoid Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois in our second round. There almost no chance we beat them. Everyone else is a small chance, but at least we have a chance. But do i want to drop now? No. Don't want to be near the bubble.

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Yep, the way things have gone for us Id rather be locked into 8/9 seed and have little chance of a deep run.
Dropping down to bubble line just gives the committee an excuse to screw us over.

misterguinness said:

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A fact to keep in mind of how corrupt and biased the selection process is: in the last 40 years, a team from the Big 10 has won the tourney only 3 times (none since 2000). Kentucky and Florida have won the tourney the same number, individually, in that same time span.

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What does this have to do with anything at all??

Vandy isnt a four seed they have been getting beat and barely beat UGA.

phatty26 said:

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Vandy isnt a four seed they have been getting beat and barely beat UGA.

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Okay...always love the haters that offer criticism without offering their own thoughts of where a team should be seeded.

LouisvilleAg said:

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TombstoneTex said:

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Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

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We certainly want to avoid Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois in our second round. There almost no chance we beat them. Everyone else is a small chance, but at least we have a chance. But do i want to drop now? No. Don't want to be near the bubble.

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I'd add Purdink and Florida to that list with their size

Jerry__Ag said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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TombstoneTex said:

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Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

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We certainly want to avoid Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois in our second round. There almost no chance we beat them. Everyone else is a small chance, but at least we have a chance. But do i want to drop now? No. Don't want to be near the bubble.

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I'd add Purdink and Florida to that list with their size

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I didn't add Florida because we won't face them in the second round.

LouisvilleAg said:

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Jerry__Ag said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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TombstoneTex said:

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Am I crazy to want to fall to a 10 or 11 seed?

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We certainly want to avoid Michigan, Duke, Arizona, UConn, and Illinois in our second round. There almost no chance we beat them. Everyone else is a small chance, but at least we have a chance. But do i want to drop now? No. Don't want to be near the bubble.

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I'd add Purdink and Florida to that list with their size

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I didn't add Florida because we won't face them in the second round.

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That's why you are the bracket expert and I'm just a Jerry.

We might. if four SEC teams end up on the 10 line they're going to have to put them all somewhere.

They can move someone from the 10 seed to the 9 seed or 11 seed if they need to avoid matching up conference teams. They will do their best to avoid regular season rematches (at least in the first two rounds).

I know but it happened last year. Florida and Oklahoma and Alabama and Vanderbilt could have played each other in the second round. Both OU and Vandy lost but they were in the same pods.

But that was with 14 teams. I guess it could happen with 11 teams. I haven't even started getting close to seeding yet on a bracket so I haven't even looked at it. Could be completely blind on it. So I guess you are both right that I should just include them as a team we don't want to face.

Update after yesterday's loss:

Top 4 Seeds
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
UConn

SEC Teams
2 - Florida
3 - Alabama
5 - Vandy
5 - Tennessee
6 - Arkansas
8 - Kentucky
9 - Georgia
9 - Missouri
10 - Texas
10 - Texas A&M

Bubble
Last 4 Byes
10 - Texas
10 - UCLA
10 - Texas A&M
10 - Santa Clara

Play In Games
11 - TCU
11 - New Mexico
11 - VCU
11 - SMU

First Four Out
Ohio St.
Indiana
Auburn
San Diego St.

Next Four Out
Virginia Tech
South Florida
USC
Seton Hall

Top 4 Seed Bracket

Midwest (Chicago)
1. Michigan
2. Houston
3. Michigan St.
4. Texas Tech

South (Houston)
1. UConn
2. Florida
3. Purdue
4. Kansas

East (Washington, DC)
1. Duke
2. Illinois
3. Iowa St.
4. Gonzaga

West (San Jose)
1. Arizona
2. Nebraska
3. Alabama
4. Virginia

Have you joined the Matrix?

Bob in Houston said:

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Have you joined the Matrix?

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No, I don't publish it anywhere than here but I try to score it the same.

So what do we think about Florida as a 1. Too many stumbles early? I think they're pretty clearly in that "really don't want to play them in game 2" category with the 1s listed. Maybe the 2 to UConn's 1 which would be a great regional final.

Gonna be tight with them and UCONN.