bobinator said:
Gonna be tight with them and UCONN.
Agree - why I say they are probably the 1-2 match in the East.
March Madness Projections
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Last: 1 day ago by LouisvilleAg
Agree - why I say they are probably the 1-2 match in the East.
I think a good consolation is Florida gets the south regional as the 2 seed.
If Florida wins at Kentucky and doesn't just immediately lose in the SECT I imagine their numbers are going to jump UConn.
If UConn and Florida win out and win their tourneys, then I think uConn stays a 1. The first three 1s are a lock. I don't see either losing, but I also didn't see Seton Hall playing UConn close.
It's gonna be close. I don't think whether Florida wins the SEC Tournament will matter since it's on Sunday, they'll just need to make the finals. UCONN winning or losing the Big East championship on Saturday night could be the difference.
Good point. Agreed.
If we were to win our next three, I don't think it really matters whether we are a one or two. The last one placed the first two in the round of eight, so it's just a tiny difference in who you play seating wise. And given where the regionals are, it's almost certain that it will be in Houston, regardless which one of us gets it. So in that sense, I'd almost prefer to stay a two seat and stay under the radar a bit. But we have to win a few games first for it to matter.
Dude. Defending champ playing great ain't staying under any radar anywhere.
Updated after last night huge win!
1 Seeds
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
UConn
2 Seeds
Florida
Michigan St.
Illinois
Houston
3 Seeds
Nebraska
Kansas
Purdue
Iowa St.
4 Seeds
Virginia
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Alabama
5 Seeds
St. John's
Vanderbilt
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Louisville
7 Seeds
Kentucky
Saint Louis
BYU
Iowa
8 Seeds
UCLA
Georgia
Utah St.
Villanova
9 Seeds
Miami, Fl
Clemson
UCF
Texas A&M
10 Seeds
NC State
TCU
Missouri
Santa Clara
11 Seeds
Miami (OH)
Belmont
Ohio St.
Texas
SMU
Auburn
First Four Out
New Mexico
VCU
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
Indiana
USC
California
Seton Hall
1 Seeds
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
UConn
2 Seeds
Florida
Michigan St.
Illinois
Houston
3 Seeds
Nebraska
Kansas
Purdue
Iowa St.
4 Seeds
Virginia
Gonzaga
Texas Tech
Alabama
5 Seeds
St. John's
Vanderbilt
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Louisville
7 Seeds
Kentucky
Saint Louis
BYU
Iowa
8 Seeds
UCLA
Georgia
Utah St.
Villanova
9 Seeds
Miami, Fl
Clemson
UCF
Texas A&M
10 Seeds
NC State
TCU
Missouri
Santa Clara
11 Seeds
Miami (OH)
Belmont
Ohio St.
Texas
SMU
Auburn
First Four Out
New Mexico
VCU
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
Indiana
USC
California
Seton Hall
Potential Bracket
Interesting thing on Michigan is that people told me for YEARS that the schools have no say in where they end up but I always suspected they did. Michigan let the NCAA know this year they'd rather play in Philly than Buffalo even though Buffalo is technically closer.
Much rather be a 10 seed with Santa Clara's spot than a 9 and face Arizona in round two. Champagne problem.
It's pronounced thermometer
Clarity coming after Wednesday's games:
1 Seeds
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
UConn
2 Seeds
Florida
Michigan St.
Illinois
Houston
3 Seeds
Nebraska
Purdue
Virginia
Kansas
4 Seeds
Gonzaga
Iowa St.
Texas Tech
Alabama
5 Seeds
Vanderbilt
St. John's
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Louisville
7 Seeds
Kentucky
Iowa
BYU
Miami, FL
8 Seeds
UCLA
Saint Louis
Villanova
Georgia
9 Seeds
Utah St.
Texas A&M
UCF
Clemson
10 Seeds
NC State
TCU
Missouri
Ohio St.
11 Seeds
Miami (OH) (AQ)
Belmont (AQ)
Play In Games
Santa Clara
Auburn
SMU
Texas
First Four Out
VCU
Indiana
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
New Mexico
California
USC
Seton Hall
1 Seeds
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
UConn
2 Seeds
Florida
Michigan St.
Illinois
Houston
3 Seeds
Nebraska
Purdue
Virginia
Kansas
4 Seeds
Gonzaga
Iowa St.
Texas Tech
Alabama
5 Seeds
Vanderbilt
St. John's
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Saint Mary's
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Louisville
7 Seeds
Kentucky
Iowa
BYU
Miami, FL
8 Seeds
UCLA
Saint Louis
Villanova
Georgia
9 Seeds
Utah St.
Texas A&M
UCF
Clemson
10 Seeds
NC State
TCU
Missouri
Ohio St.
11 Seeds
Miami (OH) (AQ)
Belmont (AQ)
Play In Games
Santa Clara
Auburn
SMU
Texas
First Four Out
VCU
Indiana
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
Next Four Out
New Mexico
California
USC
Seton Hall
The current WAB is
41 A&M (1.6)
42 Texas (1.48)
43 Santa Clara (1.45)
44 VCU (0.69)
45 Auburn (0.66)
46 SMU (0.61)
47 California (0.43)
48 Indiana (0.42)
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/wab-ranking
Texas has more Quad 1 wins than Auburn (7 to 4), the same number of Quad 2-3 losses, and is higher ranked in WAB, NET, Torvik, Kenpom, and ESPN strength of record. Auburn has the edge in BPI and KPI.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
https://barttorvik.com/#
https://kenpom.com/
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume
I'm not sure how Texas is the last one in the play in game behind Auburn as things stand now.
Belmont at 11 above Santa Clara, SMU, Auburn, and Texas is a head scratcher too. Belmont is 52 in WAB, 55 in NET (no Quad 1 wins and 3 Quad 3 losses), 68 in Torvik, 56 in Kenpom, 52 in SOR, and 88 in BPI. Belmont's numbers are much worse than all the play-in teams, and it doesn't have the unbeaten thing that Miami (OH) has going for it.
Lunardi doesn't have Belmont in the first 12 teams out and bracket matrix has them as the 8th team out.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
That means you have Belmont 13-16 spots higher than Lunardi and the matrix.
41 A&M (1.6)
42 Texas (1.48)
43 Santa Clara (1.45)
44 VCU (0.69)
45 Auburn (0.66)
46 SMU (0.61)
47 California (0.43)
48 Indiana (0.42)
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/wab-ranking
Texas has more Quad 1 wins than Auburn (7 to 4), the same number of Quad 2-3 losses, and is higher ranked in WAB, NET, Torvik, Kenpom, and ESPN strength of record. Auburn has the edge in BPI and KPI.
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
https://barttorvik.com/#
https://kenpom.com/
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume
I'm not sure how Texas is the last one in the play in game behind Auburn as things stand now.
Belmont at 11 above Santa Clara, SMU, Auburn, and Texas is a head scratcher too. Belmont is 52 in WAB, 55 in NET (no Quad 1 wins and 3 Quad 3 losses), 68 in Torvik, 56 in Kenpom, 52 in SOR, and 88 in BPI. Belmont's numbers are much worse than all the play-in teams, and it doesn't have the unbeaten thing that Miami (OH) has going for it.
Lunardi doesn't have Belmont in the first 12 teams out and bracket matrix has them as the 8th team out.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 5, 2026
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
That means you have Belmont 13-16 spots higher than Lunardi and the matrix.
Belmont is an automatic qualifier (sorry if that was not clear) in my model. So is Miami (OH). I don't have them high enough to get in without being an automatic qualifier. That said, if they go undefeated in the regular season and lose in the conference tourney, they WILL get in regardless because the optics look horrible otherwise.
Belmont was going to try and make things interesting until they lost to Illinois State last week. I had been keeping an eye on them.
All of these teams like New Mexico and Auburn need to be thankful for that loss and for SFA losing to New Orleans a couple of weeks ago or this would be a little more complicated.
All of these teams like New Mexico and Auburn need to be thankful for that loss and for SFA losing to New Orleans a couple of weeks ago or this would be a little more complicated.
On the Texas thing, I agree, a little weird how the model does this. But I would say it is a lot of choosing from meh.
Last 5 teams in and the first four left out and their Q1A record/Q3+Q4 record:
Ohio St - 1-9 / 11-0
Santa Clara - 0-4 / 15-1
Auburn - 2-7 / 9-1
SMU - 1-5 / 11-0
Texas - 1-8 / 9-1
VCU - 0-3 / 18-0
Indiana - 2-8 / 13-0
Cincinnati - 2-5 / 9-1
Virginia Tech - 2-7 / 11-1
Santa Clara is done with their regular season.
Friday games that matter for the bubble:
VCU at Dayton. Lose this and kiss your hopes goodbye.
Saturday games that matter for the bubble:
Indiana at Ohio State. Massive opportunity for Indiana.
Virginia Tech plays at Virginia. Massive opportunity for VT.
SMU at Florida State - a loss by SMU would really really hurt here.
Cincinnati at TCU. Massive opportunity for Cincy.
Auburn at Alabama. If Auburn wins, they are in. If they lose, they are probably out.
Oklahoma at Texas. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they are probably out.
It will all get sorted out this weekend.
Last 5 teams in and the first four left out and their Q1A record/Q3+Q4 record:
Ohio St - 1-9 / 11-0
Santa Clara - 0-4 / 15-1
Auburn - 2-7 / 9-1
SMU - 1-5 / 11-0
Texas - 1-8 / 9-1
VCU - 0-3 / 18-0
Indiana - 2-8 / 13-0
Cincinnati - 2-5 / 9-1
Virginia Tech - 2-7 / 11-1
Santa Clara is done with their regular season.
Friday games that matter for the bubble:
VCU at Dayton. Lose this and kiss your hopes goodbye.
Saturday games that matter for the bubble:
Indiana at Ohio State. Massive opportunity for Indiana.
Virginia Tech plays at Virginia. Massive opportunity for VT.
SMU at Florida State - a loss by SMU would really really hurt here.
Cincinnati at TCU. Massive opportunity for Cincy.
Auburn at Alabama. If Auburn wins, they are in. If they lose, they are probably out.
Oklahoma at Texas. If they win, they are in. If they lose, they are probably out.
It will all get sorted out this weekend.
For comparison purposes
A&M is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-6 in Q1 games, 3-4 in Q2, and 12-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
They are much closer to a Wisconsin type team except for the Q2 record.
Wisconsin is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-7 in Q1 games, 6-2 in Q2, 10-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
Wisconsin is considered a 6 in most mocks. A&M is somewhere between a 9 and 11 seed.
A&M is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-6 in Q1 games, 3-4 in Q2, and 12-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
They are much closer to a Wisconsin type team except for the Q2 record.
Wisconsin is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-7 in Q1 games, 6-2 in Q2, 10-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
Wisconsin is considered a 6 in most mocks. A&M is somewhere between a 9 and 11 seed.
LouisvilleAg said:
For comparison purposes
A&M is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-6 in Q1 games, 3-4 in Q2, and 12-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
They are much closer to a Wisconsin type team except for the Q2 record.
Wisconsin is 3-5 in Q1A games, 5-7 in Q1 games, 6-2 in Q2, 10-0 in Q3/Q4 games.
Wisconsin is considered a 6 in most mocks. A&M is somewhere between a 9 and 11 seed.
The Quad1A stuff can be a little funny. A&M has a Quad 1A win over Texas because the Horns have a NET of 39, but Texas' win over A&M isn't Quad 1A because A&M's NET is 43.
A&M also had a Quad 1A win over Auburn who has a NET of 40. Unless they post a win over Bama that may no longer be the case.
I still think we need to beat LSU. If we don't we are out or maybe in Dayton.
To be sure, absolutely. But I think we still make it regardless of the result of that game. The only thing that changes is if we are a 9 seed, 10 seed, or in the play in game as an 11 seed. As ColleyvilleAg said in the other thread, the bubble is extremely weak.
In my model the final three spots after Santa Clara are between 5 teams that are very closely bunched together.
Texas
Auburn
SMU
VCU
Indiana
There is a very big drop off to the next level which includes
Cincinnati
Virgina Tech
New Mexico
And the next four teams are a big drop off from the above
California
USC
Seton Hall
San Diego St.
Texas
Auburn
SMU
VCU
Indiana
There is a very big drop off to the next level which includes
Cincinnati
Virgina Tech
New Mexico
And the next four teams are a big drop off from the above
California
USC
Seton Hall
San Diego St.
By the WAB the big break is after #43 Santa Clara but doesn't include Texas.
It's VCU, Auburn, SMU, Cal, Indiana and Virginia Tech and then a decent gap back to USC.
But the gap between #43 Santa Clara and #44 VCU is absolutely massive. It's the WAB equivalent of winning at Missouri or winning a home game against UCONN.
It's VCU, Auburn, SMU, Cal, Indiana and Virginia Tech and then a decent gap back to USC.
But the gap between #43 Santa Clara and #44 VCU is absolutely massive. It's the WAB equivalent of winning at Missouri or winning a home game against UCONN.
bobinator said:
By the WAB the big break is after #43 Santa Clara but doesn't include Texas.
It's VCU, Auburn, SMU, Cal, Indiana and Virginia Tech and then a decent gap back to USC.
But the gap between #43 Santa Clara and #44 VCU is absolutely massive. It's the WAB equivalent of winning at Missouri or winning a home game against UCONN.
I just realized that what is on T-Rank WAB and NET WAB don't match. Close, but not matching. Dammit.
Are we cliose to getting a 9 seed if we beat LSU?
I don't think so unless a bunch of upsets around us happen this weekend.
This LSU game is basically a "tread water" game for us.
Now if we tread water but a bunch of other people start falling (Texas loses to OU, TCU loses to Cincy, NC State loses to Stanford...) then maybe, but I don't think we're really going to pass anyone by beating LSU if everyone else wins.
This LSU game is basically a "tread water" game for us.
Now if we tread water but a bunch of other people start falling (Texas loses to OU, TCU loses to Cincy, NC State loses to Stanford...) then maybe, but I don't think we're really going to pass anyone by beating LSU if everyone else wins.
Miami (OH) survives. Somehow they go 31-0. No way the committee leaves them out. Your first potential bid stealer.
UNM needs to beat USU. that would be one that falls out
Oklahoma State loses to Houston and will be eliminated. UConn currently losing to Marquette. Arkansas finally beats Missouri.
Virginia Tech also loses to Virginia. I would suspect that they are now eliminated although they are close to the bubble.
UConn does lose. If Florida beats Kentucky, I think they are the final 1 seed. Going to really shake up the brackets as I can see UConn be in Duke's bracket now.
My model doesn't have any bias in it, but for some reason it favors the Ags more than others.
Here are the seeds with us on the final day of the regular season:
1 Seeds
Michigan (Overall 1)
Duke
Arizona
UConn (very tight with Florida - if UConn wins their tourney, I think they are the final 1)
2 Seeds
Florida (very tight with UConn - but does it matter?)
Michigan St.
Houston
Illinois
3 Seeds
Virginia
Iowa St.
Nebraska
Alabama
4 Seeds
Purdue
Kansas
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
5 Seeds
St. John's
Texas Tech
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Saint Mary's
Louisville
7 Seeds
BYU
Miami, FL
UCLA
Kentucky
8 Seeds
Georgia
Villanova
Texas A&M
Clemson
9 Seeds
Utah St. - AQ
TCU
Iowa
NC State
10 Seeds
Ohio St.
Saint Louis - AQ
UCF
Missouri
11 Seeds
Santa Clara
Miami (OH) - AQ
Play In
VCU
Texas
Auburn
SMU
First Four Out
Indiana
Stanford
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
VCU, Texas, Auburn, SMU, and Indiana is where the bubble line exists. If there are no bid stealers, then 4 out of the 5 will make the tourney. They are all very tightly packed together nicely. The only two conferences where I think we might see a bid thief is in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis) and the Mountain West (Utah St.). I think any in the power conferences that have a legitimate shot at winning their conference tourney are already in. Well, if Miami (OH) doesn't win their conference tourney, then I guess that is another one. So 3 possible bid thieves.
Here are the seeds with us on the final day of the regular season:
1 Seeds
Michigan (Overall 1)
Duke
Arizona
UConn (very tight with Florida - if UConn wins their tourney, I think they are the final 1)
2 Seeds
Florida (very tight with UConn - but does it matter?)
Michigan St.
Houston
Illinois
3 Seeds
Virginia
Iowa St.
Nebraska
Alabama
4 Seeds
Purdue
Kansas
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
5 Seeds
St. John's
Texas Tech
UNC
Tennessee
6 Seeds
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Saint Mary's
Louisville
7 Seeds
BYU
Miami, FL
UCLA
Kentucky
8 Seeds
Georgia
Villanova
Texas A&M
Clemson
9 Seeds
Utah St. - AQ
TCU
Iowa
NC State
10 Seeds
Ohio St.
Saint Louis - AQ
UCF
Missouri
11 Seeds
Santa Clara
Miami (OH) - AQ
Play In
VCU
Texas
Auburn
SMU
First Four Out
Indiana
Stanford
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
VCU, Texas, Auburn, SMU, and Indiana is where the bubble line exists. If there are no bid stealers, then 4 out of the 5 will make the tourney. They are all very tightly packed together nicely. The only two conferences where I think we might see a bid thief is in the Atlantic 10 (Saint Louis) and the Mountain West (Utah St.). I think any in the power conferences that have a legitimate shot at winning their conference tourney are already in. Well, if Miami (OH) doesn't win their conference tourney, then I guess that is another one. So 3 possible bid thieves.
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