LouisvilleAg said:

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We all know we are waiting for Bobinator's and ColleyvilleAg's bubble watch and seeding, but I finally rebooted my model this week and without further wait, and before our big games this week, I wanted to throw out my projections as of now:

1 seeds (Michigan and Arizona are really tight for the overall no. 1, Duke is a clear 3rd, and then there is a huge dropoff)
Michigan
Arizona
Duke
UConn

SEC Teams (projection at 9 teams)
Vandy - 3 seed
Florida - 4 seed
Tennessee - 5 seed
Alabama - 5 seed
Arkansas - 6 seed
Texas A&M - 7 seed
Kentucky - 8 seed
Auburn - 9 seed
Georgia - 10 seed

Highest NET team left out is Texas at 38

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Think Texas is in your first 4 out? To me I think they're a play-in team if the tournament were to start today. They did beat UGA and Vandy pretty handily. I know they've got some bad losses but that's why I'm saying I'd have them in as a play-in but I could see them being left out too.

Forgot they beat Bama. Like you said it's a very odd resume. Played Duke tight early, but their best OOC win would be NC State with a bad loss to ASU.

Based on their predictive metrics, I think they will ultimately make the tournament. But some of this predictive stuff has to show on their resume metrics.

Predictive Metrics
KenPom - 34
BPI - 35
T-Rank - 37

Resume Metrics
SOR - 54
WAB - 59
KPI - 63

As we head into the week that the NCAA lets out there top 16 teams, this is where I expect the top 16 seeds to fall.

Top 16
1 - Michigan
2 - Arizona
3 - Duke
4 - Houston
5 - UConn
6 - Iowa St
7 - Illinois
8 - Nebraska
9 - Purdue
10 - Kansas
11 - Gonzaga
12 - Michigan St
13 - Vanderbilt
14 - Florida
15 - Virginia
16 - Alabama

5 Big 10, 4 Big 12, 2 ACC, 1 Big East, 3 SEC, 1 West Coast

SEC teams
4 - Vanderbilt
4 - Florida
4 - Alabama
6 - Arkansas
6 - Tennessee
8 - Kentucky
8 - Texas A&M
9 - Georgia
10 - Auburn

First Four Out
New Mexico
Ohio St
Missouri
Texas

Following! Thanks for posting.

Do we think we need 4 more wins?

Q2 Home
(61) Missouri
02/11/2026

Q1Away
(15)19 Vanderbilt
02/14/2026

Q3 Home
(81)Ole Miss
02/18/2026

Q1Away
(74) Oklahoma
02/21/2026

Q1Away
(24) 21 Arkansas
02/25/2026

Q2 Home
(36) Texas
02/28/2026

Q1 Home
(27) 25 Kentucky
03/03/2026

Q1 Away
(57) LSU
03/07/2026

I think Ole Miss @ Home is a must win to avoid a Q3 Loss.

Mizzou would be bad to lose as it makes getting 4 more that much harder, but I wouldn't say it is a 'must win' as the path as still there.

Mizzou, Ole Miss, @OU, tu OR @LSU = Ticket punched?
Anyone after that, improves our seed?

Is that the general consensus? Or do we think we can get in with 10 wins still?

Only other thing I see is the t-sips are ahead of us at NET 36, so I think we need to beat them to make sure we have both H2H IF the SEC only gets 9 teams in.

Thoughts?

I think we're sweating it if we're sitting there at ten wins, especially if neither of them are Vandy or Arkansas and/or the losses include Ole Miss.

(with the typical caveat that just looking at wins/losses isn't telling the whole story)

Solid prediction. I'll take a stab at the SEC.

SEC teams
4 - Vanderbilt
4 3- Florida
4 - Alabama
6 - Arkansas
6 5- Tennessee
8 7- Kentucky
8 - Texas A&M
9 - Georgia
10 8- Auburn
11 - tu

The NCAA said that for tournament purposes, they aren't gonna give them credit for the wins that they had while the Ineligible player was playing. So that takes away the Missouri Auburn and Texas A&M wins from them.
With that in mind, I'd be really surprised if there are four. As for us, our net this morning was nine, ELo 12, KenPom 7. So if we are only a four seed I'd be surprised. But it doesn't much matter at this point anyway lotta games to be played, including a game at Georgia for us tomorrow night where we lost last year.

I think what's going to get Florida for now, though this will resolve as they go, is that they resume metrics don't like them as much as the predictive ones.

9 in the NET but 16 in the NET WAB, and I'd be surprised if the committee deviates too much from the NET WAB at the moment.

You could be right, no big deal either way for us between how much game there is left to play, and the fact that top four is all that really matters for us so we stay in Tampa.
Just seems that the top team ( as of today) in the third best league would merit a three seed, and our metrics give them a justification to do it… but we'll see.

Yeah the way it looks like it's going to shake out this season Florida is probably going to get that Tampa site unless some really strange stuff happens.

bobinator said:

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I think we're sweating it if we're sitting there at ten wins, especially if neither of them are Vandy or Arkansas and/or the losses include Ole Miss.

(with the typical caveat that just looking at wins/losses isn't telling the whole story)

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Yeah, I agree about sweating it at 10 wins.

If tu had swooned, then I think we might have made it with 10, but I don't know if the SEC gets 10 teams in this year. We are going to be in the SEC NET RANK of 5-12 area depending on our next 8 games, so 10 wins would probably put us 9th or 10th AND if we lost to tu, then we could get left out.

Ten is definitely in play. Could tick up to 11 if some teams, especially Arkansas, wanted to take dives for Missouri.

I think at this point, we are playing for seeding. If we **** the bed and end up at 10 SEC wins, then we are squarely on the bubble. The bubble doesn't look strong this year, but do we really want to leave it up to the committee? Yes, it is time to reset expectations.

If we protect home and split the away games, we could be looking at 13 SEC wins which should get us a 5, 6, or 7 seed. Anything in between would put us in the 8, 9, or 10 seeds which i would want to avoid. I think the 1 seeds are legit. I also think Florida will eventually get to a 2 seed.

I will say, if we do **** the bed, and somehow don't make the big dance, I am 100% behind Bucky. He was my favorite option this off-season, and I 100% think this system will work.

aggiez03 said:

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bobinator said:

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I think we're sweating it if we're sitting there at ten wins, especially if neither of them are Vandy or Arkansas and/or the losses include Ole Miss.

(with the typical caveat that just looking at wins/losses isn't telling the whole story)

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Yeah, I agree about sweating it at 10 wins.

If tu had swooned, then I think we might have made it with 10, but I don't know if the SEC gets 10 teams in this year. We are going to be in the SEC NET RANK of 5-12 area depending on our next 8 games, so 10 wins would probably put us 9th or 10th AND if we lost to tu, then we could get left out.

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Yeah

10 wins would mean we finished the season 3-7

Hard to imagine if we lost 5 of our remaining 8 that we wouldn't fall to the bubble

Certainly leaves a certain odor…

NyAggie said:

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aggiez03 said:

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bobinator said:

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I think we're sweating it if we're sitting there at ten wins, especially if neither of them are Vandy or Arkansas and/or the losses include Ole Miss.

(with the typical caveat that just looking at wins/losses isn't telling the whole story)

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Yeah, I agree about sweating it at 10 wins.

If tu had swooned, then I think we might have made it with 10, but I don't know if the SEC gets 10 teams in this year. We are going to be in the SEC NET RANK of 5-12 area depending on our next 8 games, so 10 wins would probably put us 9th or 10th AND if we lost to tu, then we could get left out.

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Yeah

10 wins would mean we finished the season 3-7

Hard to imagine if we lost 5 of our remaining 8 that we wouldn't fall to the bubble

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Yeah, I think we would be in the last 4 IN or First 4 Out at a minimum.

The SEC isn't the cream of the crop this year, but a 3-7 finish would mean there are a lot of team in that 8-12 range in SEC rank that could steal our spot IF the committee decided to take only 10 from the SEC.

I think 11 is the minimum NO SWEATING IT wins required, unless the 3 wins to get to 10 were like Vandy (Net15), Arkansas(Net24) & Kentucky(Net27).

I just don't see a scenario where we win ALL those 3, but lose to ALL OF Ole Miss, Mizzou, OU, and LSU.
If we are good enough to beat Vandy, Ark, & UK, then we are gonna win at least 11 anyway.

bobinator said:

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Quote:

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IF the committee decided to take only 10 from the SEC.

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Time to fire up the annual "this is not how this works" machine

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Yeah, maybe, but it sure seems like they have a quota some years and inexplicably put in some team in front of a next team in a major conference.

The SEC got FOURTEEN teams in the NCAA Tournament last year. If there was some kind of quota system, you'd have seen it then right?

True, except those 14 were almost all no brainers.

True, and we had overriding conspiracies at play. The BOMC was stronger than the conference quota system.

aggiez03 said:

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NyAggie said:

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aggiez03 said:

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bobinator said:

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I think we're sweating it if we're sitting there at ten wins, especially if neither of them are Vandy or Arkansas and/or the losses include Ole Miss.

(with the typical caveat that just looking at wins/losses isn't telling the whole story)

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Yeah, I agree about sweating it at 10 wins.

If tu had swooned, then I think we might have made it with 10, but I don't know if the SEC gets 10 teams in this year. We are going to be in the SEC NET RANK of 5-12 area depending on our next 8 games, so 10 wins would probably put us 9th or 10th AND if we lost to tu, then we could get left out.

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Yeah

10 wins would mean we finished the season 3-7

Hard to imagine if we lost 5 of our remaining 8 that we wouldn't fall to the bubble

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Yeah, I think we would be in the last 4 IN or First 4 Out at a minimum.

The SEC isn't the cream of the crop this year, but a 3-7 finish would mean there are a lot of team in that 8-12 range in SEC rank that could steal our spot IF the committee decided to take only 10 from the SEC.

I think 11 is the minimum NO SWEATING IT wins required, unless the 3 wins to get to 10 were like Vandy (Net15), Arkansas(Net24) & Kentucky(Net27).

I just don't see a scenario where we win ALL those 3, but lose to ALL OF Ole Miss, Mizzou, OU, and LSU.
If we are good enough to beat Vandy, Ark, & UK, then we are gonna win at least 11 anyway.

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I agree

If we did only get to 10 wins, the likely path to get there would be beating mizzzou and ole miss at home and then one game out of at OU, at lsu and tu at home, but that path would also include losses to 2 out of those last 3 teams

Not a good resume building finish

I still think we'll finish with a minimum of 12 wins which will include at least one win over uk, ark or vandy