Obviously asking because we will want to avoid Mason Edwards if at all possible. Grant Govel (USC #2) is no slouch, but Edwards may be the best starting pitcher in college baseball this season.

Went down a little bit of a rabbit hole today. To me, it seems like USC will go with Edwards vs TSU, based off of a few reasons.

1) Routine: Edwards has started every first game of a 3 game series the entire season.

2) Rest: Edwards pitched last friday, Govel pitched last Saturday. If Govel were to go this Friday, he would be on short rest against one of the best 3 offenses he will have faced all season

3) Matchup vs TSU: While Edwards is probably a better matchup vs everyone as compared to Govel, that seems particularly true vs TSU. TSU hits home runs, Ks and doesnt walk much. Edwards Ks people, and doesnt allow the deep ball. Where as Govel allows a few more deep balls but doesnt have the swing and miss stuff of Edwards. TSU has a dangerous offense, especially if Olsen plays small.

Looking at all of the data, it seems like a pretty clear cut decision that USC SHOULD start Edwards in game one. Which, would be good news for us. Ultimately, TSU is too good of an offense for an average offensive team in USC to not throw their best dude.

Thoughts?

90% chance they throw their #2

dabo man said:

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Can you remember a #2 seed holding a pitcher in the first game?

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I can not remember it happening. I am sure there have been some cases where rest/matchup dictated the number 2 go. But, when there is a clear 1 vs 2 and the matchup doesnt dictate it, I dont remember the 2 going very often.

On the radio this morning, Kendall was sure that they were going to throw Edwards against TX State. Said we should all stay after our game to watch Edwards pitch against TX State. Then Nuno asked him if he knew for sure they were going to do that and he seemed to kind of consider it but really made it sound like they weren't going to take any chances in that first game.

He did mention that Tennessee is holding back their 1 in their regional to go against UNC. So there's at least one 2-seed that's pitching off.

Really a tough decision in College Baseball. Lose the first game of a 3 day maybe 4 day
Regional that goes to 5 games is very taxing on any pitching staff.

RED AG 98 said:

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I mean, the USC head coach said it was a possibility just yesterday so I'll continue to go with that over KR until he says otherwise. Now, Stanky could be just blowing smoke but normal coach-speak would just say no we're sticking the normal plan...

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As was pointed out, above, examples of two seeds doing this seem to be lacking, to non-existent. I'm going to assume that USC throws their #1 so as not to tempt fate and end up having to use him in a loser's bracket game against Lamar.

twk said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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I mean, the USC head coach said it was a possibility just yesterday so I'll continue to go with that over KR until he says otherwise. Now, Stanky could be just blowing smoke but normal coach-speak would just say no we're sticking the normal plan...

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As was pointed out, above, examples of two seeds doing this seem to be lacking, to non-existent. I'm going to assume that USC throws their #1 so as not to tempt fate and end up having to use him in a loser's bracket game against Lamar.

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I get it, but this strikes me as similar to ideas about best hitter batting cleanup or best reliever pitches the 9th. It is the old tried and true way, but I don't think there is data to support it's the best way.

USC was also 32-1 at home

not playing at home this weekend

I think it was Brock Blatter and it looks like he's not on the roster.

If you lose the first game pitching off and then have to burn your ace on the 4 seed scrub or Texas St. in an elimination game that's a lot of egg on the face of your coach.

CYA would have him throwing his best to win their first game.

USC was 1-11 in Quad 1

MagnumLoad said:

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USC was 1-11 in Quad 1

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That being the case, their top 2 pitchers are definitely beatable as long as our pitching is adequate.

Sean98 said:

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Pitching off has increased in frequency a lot in recent years. It used to never happen. I think there's a real chance that USC will believe they need Edwards to match up against A&M. As a pitcher I love routines and hate being moved around... but as a coach I think I would pitch off at least 75% of the time in these settings. If the goal is to win you pitch your best vs. the best. ...because if your #2 can't beat Tx State then he's not beating A&M.

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Exactly. I think this will become more common. If your goal is to win the regional, your best chance of beating the host is by pitching your ace vs them. It also increases your chance of losing game 1, but like you said, if your #2 can't get it done vs the 3 seed then they definitely weren't going to vs the host. I've always wondered why this strategy wasn't more common for 2 seeds.

twk said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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I mean, the USC head coach said it was a possibility just yesterday so I'll continue to go with that over KR until he says otherwise. Now, Stanky could be just blowing smoke but normal coach-speak would just say no we're sticking the normal plan...

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As was pointed out, above, examples of two seeds doing this seem to be lacking, to non-existent. I'm going to assume that USC throws their #1 so as not to tempt fate and end up having to use him in a loser's bracket game against Lamar.

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Kendall actually said that UT and ECU are both throwing their #2 starters in game one and holding their aces for game 2. I've never heard of both a 2 and 3 seed pitching back in game 1 of a regional.

The argument for not playing your #2 in game one is

Routine Rhythm and Confidence are important
Messing with the rotation could affect any of these
It might be Better to let the number #1 pitch when he used to pitching and let the #2 know that you have confidence in his ability to get the W

fightintxag13 said:

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twk said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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I mean, the USC head coach said it was a possibility just yesterday so I'll continue to go with that over KR until he says otherwise. Now, Stanky could be just blowing smoke but normal coach-speak would just say no we're sticking the normal plan...

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As was pointed out, above, examples of two seeds doing this seem to be lacking, to non-existent. I'm going to assume that USC throws their #1 so as not to tempt fate and end up having to use him in a loser's bracket game against Lamar.

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Kendall actually said that UT and ECU are both throwing their #2 starters in game one and holding their aces for game 2. I've never heard of both a 2 and 3 seed pitching back in game 1 of a regional.

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I think UT starts their ace on Saturday regularly, so that's a little bit different.

twk said:

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fightintxag13 said:

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twk said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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I mean, the USC head coach said it was a possibility just yesterday so I'll continue to go with that over KR until he says otherwise. Now, Stanky could be just blowing smoke but normal coach-speak would just say no we're sticking the normal plan...

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As was pointed out, above, examples of two seeds doing this seem to be lacking, to non-existent. I'm going to assume that USC throws their #1 so as not to tempt fate and end up having to use him in a loser's bracket game against Lamar.

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Kendall actually said that UT and ECU are both throwing their #2 starters in game one and holding their aces for game 2. I've never heard of both a 2 and 3 seed pitching back in game 1 of a regional.

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I think UT starts their ace on Saturday regularly, so that's a little bit different.

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Kind of like the Aggies if you consider Sims our ace. I guess he's as close as we have. In Richard Zane's article he says that pitching back might not be in "the cards" for the Aggies, but what would that mean for our pitching staff?

I wonder if the committee really dropped the Aggie's seeding to avoid pairing them against the sips? If they did to protect tu, which I wouldn't rule out, then it's the sips that should have been dropped a notch.

Texas St can bang it pretty good if usc throws their #2 they will get beat.