94 percent of patients had more than one disease other than COVID-19

13,534 Views | 181 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Irwin M. Fletcher
DTP02
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DadHammer said:

A new study by a medical journal revealed that most of the people in New York City who were hospitalized due to coronavirus had one or more underlying health issues.

Health records from 5,700 patients hospitalized within the Northwell Health system -- which housed the most patients in the country throughout the pandemic -- showed that 94 percent of patients had more than one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

https://www.foxnews.com/health/nearly-all-ny-coronavirus-patients-suffered-underlying-health-issue-study-finds

Very interesting and important to know.




This shouldn't really be "news" to anyone. While it probably doesn't get the coverage in the media that it deserves (I mean, does the media really do anything well at this point?), the stats have always shown that this disease is much more dangerous to those who are elderly, have a comorbidity, or both.

It's a little misleading, however, because there are a lot of folks who think of themselves as pretty healthy and just "have a little high blood pressure" or just "need to lose a couple pounds" who would classify as having comorbidiites of hypertension or obesity.

Roughly a fourth of the adults in this country have hypertension and more than a third are obese. Our country's' biggest health problem by far, even in the COVID19 era, is obesity. Lots of the other stuff like hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes relates back to the fact that we are too fat.

Hopefully all the folks I see out walking now who is don't use to see previously are a step in the right direction. And hopefully once we get past the worst panic of COVID19 we can have a serious discussion about the obesity epidemic in the US.
deadbq03
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GAC06 said:

Hospitals are empty in Texas. Wake up.
Social distancing worked!
The_Fox
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tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.
GAC06
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deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

HotardAg07 said:

deadbq03 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.
Lifestyle choices man. Those people don't deserve to live either.
Alright, time to sign off Texags.
I guess my sarcasm wasn't obvious. Which is a sad sign.

That's really what this whole thread is about though.

Even if it were true that this only kills the old and unhealthy, the implication in even bringing it up is that their lives aren't worth saving.


Not even close. There's no implication, just the fact that it's not a realistic threat for the vast majority of us, and we are overreacting.
I disagree. We all make too many contacts in our lives. My wife has an auto-immune disease. She's at risk. Do we get special notes to keep our kids out of school while everyone else goes? My 5 and 7 year olds sure as hell won't be abiding by protocols if they have to go to school.

One small example. Nearly everyone in the at-risk population would have similar issues trying to keep themselves safe if society didn't do this together.


No one is stopping you from keeping you kids at home now, and they never were
GAC06
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deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

Hospitals are empty in Texas. Wake up.
Social distancing worked!


And now it's time to get on with it. We aren't going to eradicate the virus. We are only delaying the inevitable while destroying the economy. More people will get infected. The vast majority will be fine. Only then will we be "safe".
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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I'd be more comfortable with opening things up if it wasn't obvious that 90%+ of the "open everything back up" crowd didn't also think this was all an overblown hoax/fear mongering.

You can have a rational conversation with somebody who is truly wanting to weigh the pros/cons of each situation and acknowledges both sides have danger associated (and there are some folks like that on here). You can have very strong arguments for opening back up while still understanding the associated risks.

I can't begin to have a conversation with somebody who believes there is legitimately no risk here or that it is all fear mongering - that person is clearly not living in the real world, but instead is buying into the myth of invincibility (at best) or just doesn't care about folks dying that aren't them. It's easier to let them just bash actual experts while parroting Rush Limbaugh.
tysker
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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?

It is moot unless you believe the over diagnosing applies to the general population, but not the covid statistics.
Its relevant to the 'majority of Americans are high-risk' and will need hospitalization for COVID argument. You can be technically hypertensive and technically obese and still be considered generally healthy and at low risk for needing hospital services if infected with COVID. At lease so it seems from the data.
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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tysker said:

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?

It is moot unless you believe the over diagnosing applies to the general population, but not the covid statistics.
Its relevant to the 'majority of Americans are high-risk' and will need hospitalization for COVID argument. You can be technically hypertensive and technically obese and still be considered generally healthy and at low risk for needing hospital services if infected with COVID. At lease so it seems from the data.


Right, so you're saying that the general population is being over diagnosed, but the covid cases aren't....which was the exception I noted before. Essentially, it only matters if your "high risk" line is different across the two, or if all of your covid cases are well beyond the line.
deadbq03
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GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

HotardAg07 said:

deadbq03 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.
Lifestyle choices man. Those people don't deserve to live either.
Alright, time to sign off Texags.
I guess my sarcasm wasn't obvious. Which is a sad sign.

That's really what this whole thread is about though.

Even if it were true that this only kills the old and unhealthy, the implication in even bringing it up is that their lives aren't worth saving.


Not even close. There's no implication, just the fact that it's not a realistic threat for the vast majority of us, and we are overreacting.
I disagree. We all make too many contacts in our lives. My wife has an auto-immune disease. She's at risk. Do we get special notes to keep our kids out of school while everyone else goes? My 5 and 7 year olds sure as hell won't be abiding by protocols if they have to go to school.

One small example. Nearly everyone in the at-risk population would have similar issues trying to keep themselves safe if society didn't do this together.


No one is stopping you from keeping you kids at home now, and they never were
I give up. You're clearly smarter than everyone else in the world right now. Someday we'll wake up and realize we've all been duped by this hoax but until then please have patience with us.
Infection_Ag11
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tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


That person is obese yes, assuming they don't have an unusually high muscle mass. Most Americans have a very flawed idea of what a normal human body looks like because obesity is so pervasive. A healthy 5'10" male should weigh roughly between 145 and 175 pounds.

Quote:

Are we country of sick, unhealthy people


Yes

We are the most chronically ill of all first world western nations, and it's really not close.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
GAC06
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Yes, we will look back on this and realize we vastly overreacted. I don't blame anyone for the initial response, but now it's clear that for most of the country it was never going to overwhelm the system. For many "flatten the curve" has become "hide at home until it's gone". That's not realistic.
SirLurksALot
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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

I'd be more comfortable with opening things up if it wasn't obvious that 90%+ of the "open everything back up" crowd didn't also think this was all an overblown hoax/fear mongering.

You can have a rational conversation with somebody who is truly wanting to weigh the pros/cons of each situation and acknowledges both sides have danger associated (and there are some folks like that on here). You can have very strong arguments for opening back up while still understanding the associated risks.

I can't begin to have a conversation with somebody who believes there is legitimately no risk here or that it is all fear mongering - that person is clearly not living in the real world, but instead is buying into the myth of invincibility (at best) or just doesn't care about folks dying that aren't them. It's easier to let them just bash actual experts while parroting Rush Limbaugh.


There is a real risk to some people, but not the majority of the population. Even under the worst case scenario 99.4% the population would survive. This is a bad disease, but it's not the apocalypse. Many will get it, a small percentage will die or have lasting effects, and the rest will move on with their lives.
DTP02
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Dr.HeadCase said:

This is the problem with this board. OP has already made his agenda clear in previous posts and is posting to stir up debate and now this thread has derailed into another political cluster f.


Physician, heal thyself:

Dr.HeadCase said:

Swagag8 said:

Why does no one bat an eye when the flu claims a lot kids every year under 10 and this has killed less than you can count on your hands? Stop having tunnel vision!
You can count 40,000 on one hand?


I think anyone should have reasonably construed that post to be talking about flu deaths under age 10 vs COVID19 deaths under 10. It's the only reasonable way to interpret that statement... unless you're predisposed to looking for the worst in someone's statements because of a view you assume they hold.
Infection_Ag11
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The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
SirLurksALot
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deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

HotardAg07 said:

deadbq03 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.
Lifestyle choices man. Those people don't deserve to live either.
Alright, time to sign off Texags.
I guess my sarcasm wasn't obvious. Which is a sad sign.

That's really what this whole thread is about though.

Even if it were true that this only kills the old and unhealthy, the implication in even bringing it up is that their lives aren't worth saving.


Not even close. There's no implication, just the fact that it's not a realistic threat for the vast majority of us, and we are overreacting.
I disagree. We all make too many contacts in our lives. My wife has an auto-immune disease. She's at risk. Do we get special notes to keep our kids out of school while everyone else goes? My 5 and 7 year olds sure as hell won't be abiding by protocols if they have to go to school.

One small example. Nearly everyone in the at-risk population would have similar issues trying to keep themselves safe if society didn't do this together.


No one is stopping you from keeping you kids at home now, and they never were
I give up. You're clearly smarter than everyone else in the world right now. Someday we'll wake up and realize we've all been duped by this hoax but until then please have patience with us.


It's not a hoax. Its just an overreaction caused by a society in which a large percentage of people face no threats in their daily lives and don't know how to manage their fear.
tysker
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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

tysker said:

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?

It is moot unless you believe the over diagnosing applies to the general population, but not the covid statistics.
Its relevant to the 'majority of Americans are high-risk' and will need hospitalization for COVID argument. You can be technically hypertensive and technically obese and still be considered generally healthy and at low risk for needing hospital services if infected with COVID. At lease so it seems from the data.

Right, so you're saying that the general population is being over diagnosed, but the covid cases aren't....which was the exception I noted before. Essentially, it only matters if your "high risk" line is different across the two, or if all of your covid cases are well beyond the line.
I would say from the outside its becoming abundantly clear there's a difference between high-risk comorbidities as for COVID patients compared to the same diagnosis in the general population. The comorbidities are significantly more pronounced in COVID patients needed hospitalization.
Infection_Ag11
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tysker said:

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?

It is moot unless you believe the over diagnosing applies to the general population, but not the covid statistics.
Its relevant to the 'majority of Americans are high-risk' and will need hospitalization for COVID argument. You can be technically hypertensive and technically obese and still be considered generally healthy and at low risk for needing hospital services if infected with COVID. At lease so it seems from the data.


If anything obesity is underdiagnosed

Hypertension is over diagnosed only with relation to those who carry the diagnosis. It's estimated around 10 million Americans have undiagnosed HTN. In other words, some who carry the label don't have it but FAR more have it and don't know.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
The_Fox
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Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
While you are correct that I know people like that, that is still absurdly overweight and everyone I know like that has caused their own situation.

My current BMI is around 27.5 and I feel like a whale. Until age 40, it was never above 22. I cannot fathom letting yourself get to a 35+ BMI without taking matters into your own hands and reversing that trend.
tysker
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Infection_Ag11 said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


That person is obese yes, assuming they don't have an unusually high muscle mass. Most Americans have a very flawed idea of what a normal human body looks like because obesity is so pervasive. A healthy 5'10" male should weigh roughly between 145 and 175 pounds.

Quote:

Are we country of sick, unhealthy people


Yes

We are the most chronically ill of all first world western nations, and it's really not close.
Hey if we all stopped going to the doctor we'd become have less diagnosed illnesses!
Probably not the thread to ask but are we the most chronically ill because we're sicker or we just count better? Or because we have different standards of care? Or maybe different measurements?
Infection_Ag11
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The_Fox said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
While you are correct that I know people like that, that is still absurdly overweight and everyone I know like that has caused their own situation.

My current BMI is around 27.5 and I feel like a whale. Until age 40, it was never above 22. I cannot fathom letting yourself get to a 35+ BMI without taking matters into your own hands and reversing that trend.


It's definitely their own doing in most cases, but we don't get to just say "well **** those people they did it to themselves".

Most chronic health conditions are the result of a lifetime of poor choices, and even many cancers are as well.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
BlackGoldAg2011
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SirLurksALot said:

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

I'd be more comfortable with opening things up if it wasn't obvious that 90%+ of the "open everything back up" crowd didn't also think this was all an overblown hoax/fear mongering.

You can have a rational conversation with somebody who is truly wanting to weigh the pros/cons of each situation and acknowledges both sides have danger associated (and there are some folks like that on here). You can have very strong arguments for opening back up while still understanding the associated risks.

I can't begin to have a conversation with somebody who believes there is legitimately no risk here or that it is all fear mongering - that person is clearly not living in the real world, but instead is buying into the myth of invincibility (at best) or just doesn't care about folks dying that aren't them. It's easier to let them just bash actual experts while parroting Rush Limbaugh.


There is a real risk to some people, but not the majority of the population. Even under the worst case scenario 99.4% the population would survive. This is a bad disease, but it's not the apocalypse. Many will get it, a small percentage will die or have lasting effects, and the rest will move on with their lives.
assuming we just let this thing ride from the beginning
worst case scenario:
  • first arrival time 1/15/2020
  • initial cases: 15
  • CFR: 2%
  • calculated R0 through first shutdowns: 3.3
  • Herd immunity:70% infected
  • Death Toll at hear immunity: 4.5MM or 1.4% of the entire US population

Best Case Scenario:
  • first arrival time 12/15/2019
  • initial cases: 15
  • CFR: 0.2%
  • calculated R0 through first shutdowns: 2.6
  • Herd immunity:62% infected
  • Death Toll at hear immunity: 405K or 0.12% of the entire US population
DTP02
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deadbq03 said:

HotardAg07 said:

deadbq03 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.
Lifestyle choices man. Those people don't deserve to live either.
Alright, time to sign off Texags.
I guess my sarcasm wasn't obvious. Which is a sad sign.

That's really what this whole thread is about though.

Even if it were true that this only kills the old and unhealthy, the implication in even bringing it up is that their lives aren't worth saving.


That you think your "sarcasm" was okay is worse than the other poster thinking you were serious.

No one came anywhere close to saying what you did, but you chose to disparage everyone who would discuss the facts that this disease largely kills old people with comorbidities, just like the vast majority of other serious illnesses, and factor that into our societal response.

The people in your "camp", who can't even engage without belittling others' views, are just as bad as the people in the other camp who do the same to you.

I echo what the infection doc said, whether you were being sarcastic or not doesn't matter, it doesn't belong on this board (or, really, in civil discussion, but that's another issue).
Infection_Ag11
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tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


That person is obese yes, assuming they don't have an unusually high muscle mass. Most Americans have a very flawed idea of what a normal human body looks like because obesity is so pervasive. A healthy 5'10" male should weigh roughly between 145 and 175 pounds.

Quote:

Are we country of sick, unhealthy people


Yes

We are the most chronically ill of all first world western nations, and it's really not close.
Hey if we all stopped going to the doctor we'd become have less diagnosed illnesses!
Probably not the thread to ask but are we the most chronically ill because we're sicker or we just count better? Or because we have different standards of care? Or maybe different measurements?



We're sicker, and that's evident just from walking down a street in Madrid or Paris or Berlin as opposed to LA or NY. The difference is absolutely shocking.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
tysker
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Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
As it relates to COVID, should a person with an obese BMI of 32 be considered and categorized as equally high-risk as the person with a BMI of 38. Both are obese but it seems one is at a much much much greater risk than the other. To simply lump them together is disingenuous and oversimplifying the root of the problem imo. A sliding scale needs to be considered.
SirLurksALot
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

SirLurksALot said:

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

I'd be more comfortable with opening things up if it wasn't obvious that 90%+ of the "open everything back up" crowd didn't also think this was all an overblown hoax/fear mongering.

You can have a rational conversation with somebody who is truly wanting to weigh the pros/cons of each situation and acknowledges both sides have danger associated (and there are some folks like that on here). You can have very strong arguments for opening back up while still understanding the associated risks.

I can't begin to have a conversation with somebody who believes there is legitimately no risk here or that it is all fear mongering - that person is clearly not living in the real world, but instead is buying into the myth of invincibility (at best) or just doesn't care about folks dying that aren't them. It's easier to let them just bash actual experts while parroting Rush Limbaugh.


There is a real risk to some people, but not the majority of the population. Even under the worst case scenario 99.4% the population would survive. This is a bad disease, but it's not the apocalypse. Many will get it, a small percentage will die or have lasting effects, and the rest will move on with their lives.
assuming we just let this thing ride from the beginning
worst case scenario:
  • first arrival time 1/15/2020
  • initial cases: 15
  • CFR: 2%
  • calculated R0 through first shutdowns: 3.3
  • Herd immunity:70% infected
  • Death Toll at hear immunity: 4.5MM or 1.4% of the entire US population

Best Case Scenario:
  • first arrival time 12/15/2019
  • initial cases: 15
  • CFR: 0.2%
  • calculated R0 through first shutdowns: 2.6
  • Herd immunity:62% infected
  • Death Toll at hear immunity: 405K or 0.12% of the entire US population



The worst case scenario modeled with a do nothing approach was 2 million deaths. That is 0.6% of the population.
The_Fox
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Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
While you are correct that I know people like that, that is still absurdly overweight and everyone I know like that has caused their own situation.

My current BMI is around 27.5 and I feel like a whale. Until age 40, it was never above 22. I cannot fathom letting yourself get to a 35+ BMI without taking matters into your own hands and reversing that trend.


It's definitely their own doing in most cases, but we don't get to just say "well **** those people they did it to themselves".

Most chronic health conditions are the result of a lifetime of poor choices, and even many cancers are as well.
I have never suggested that we deny them medical care for their idiocy. However, they definitely should pay a premium for that BS. I am suggesting that we cannot make everyone else commit economic suicide out of some shared obligation for those, many of which created their own jeopardy.

That is an individual moral choice. You are a Doctor. I do not want you making that choice outside of a triage setting. You should be focused on saving every single life.

Just as the economists should pulling just as hard as you but to save the economy. Then I want someone else not in either arena to make a cold, hard, rational cost benefit analysis and get us moving in that direction.

This response simply cannot be solely driven by the medical community.
SirLurksALot
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tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
As it relates to COVID, should a person with an obese BMI of 32 be considered and categorized as equally high-risk as the person with a BMI of 38. Both are obese but it seems one is at a much much much greater risk than the other. To simply lump them together is disingenuous and oversimplifying the root of the problem imo. A sliding scale needs to be considered.


The CDC seems to only be warning that those with severe obesity (BMI of 40 or higher) are at elevated risk.

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/defining.html
DTP02
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AG
deadbq03 said:

GAC06 said:

deadbq03 said:

HotardAg07 said:

deadbq03 said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.
Lifestyle choices man. Those people don't deserve to live either.
Alright, time to sign off Texags.
I guess my sarcasm wasn't obvious. Which is a sad sign.

That's really what this whole thread is about though.

Even if it were true that this only kills the old and unhealthy, the implication in even bringing it up is that their lives aren't worth saving.


Not even close. There's no implication, just the fact that it's not a realistic threat for the vast majority of us, and we are overreacting.
I disagree. We all make too many contacts in our lives. My wife has an auto-immune disease. She's at risk. Do we get special notes to keep our kids out of school while everyone else goes? My 5 and 7 year olds sure as hell won't be abiding by protocols if they have to go to school.

One small example. Nearly everyone in the at-risk population would have similar issues trying to keep themselves safe if society didn't do this together.


Yes, IMO that's exactly what should happen. How is that unfair in your mind? Isn't a plan which protects the at risk while allowing a more normal function for everyone else, and which if done correctly can keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, a good plan?

Having kids who don't live with at risk people try to abide by protocols is not only foolish but counterproductive. We should have used the month of April, when everything else was shut down, to start building a strong herd immunity among school age children.

I know everyone thinks everything is an attack on here, but I'd legitimately like to hear you articulate why everyone should stay on lockdown to protect the at risk.
DTP02
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AG
SirLurksALot said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
As it relates to COVID, should a person with an obese BMI of 32 be considered and categorized as equally high-risk as the person with a BMI of 38. Both are obese but it seems one is at a much much much greater risk than the other. To simply lump them together is disingenuous and oversimplifying the root of the problem imo. A sliding scale needs to be considered.


The CDC seems to only be warning that those with severe obesity (BMI of 40 or higher) are at elevated risk.

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/adult/defining.html


Good news for the "beer belly" or "dad bod" obese.
tysker
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AG
That makes sense and I should thought to have looked there. Thank you.

Given the other Conditions and other risk factors posted by the CDC, it seems there are many, many less potentially high-risk persons than some of us assume.
DTP02
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AG
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

I'd be more comfortable with opening things up if it wasn't obvious that 90%+ of the "open everything back up" crowd didn't also think this was all an overblown hoax/fear mongering.

You can have a rational conversation with somebody who is truly wanting to weigh the pros/cons of each situation and acknowledges both sides have danger associated (and there are some folks like that on here). You can have very strong arguments for opening back up while still understanding the associated risks.

I can't begin to have a conversation with somebody who believes there is legitimately no risk here or that it is all fear mongering - that person is clearly not living in the real world, but instead is buying into the myth of invincibility (at best) or just doesn't care about folks dying that aren't them. It's easier to let them just bash actual experts while parroting Rush Limbaugh.


And by painting with a such a broad, 90% (plus!) brush, you're really just acting as the flip side of the same coin. I have no doubt that you'll get a lot of people on "this" board to agree right your sentiment, while on "that" board a whole lot would agree with what I just pointed out.

But the reality is y'all have so much in common: you all have a massive blind spot when it comes to recognizing how much you do exactly what you accuse the others of doing.
SirLurksALot
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tysker said:

That makes sense and I should thought to have looked there. Thank you.

Given the other Conditions and other risk factors posted by the CDC, it seems there are many, many less potentially high-risk persons than some of us assume.


Yep. Hypertension isn't even listed.
beerad12man
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AG
Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.
Agreed that in America, we have a distorted view of what being normal weight, overweight and obese really is. I'm 5-11. I used to weigh 200 about 5-6 years ago before I said enough was enough. I did always have some muscle mass. My BMI was about 27.7 at my highest, which is overweight. My body fat had to be anywhere from 25-28%, again overweight. When I dropped down to 185, everyone was talking about how great I looked even though I was still overweight according to BMI(25.8), but at least I had dropped to 22-24% body fat which was now in the average range. But then when I dropped to 172(about 17-18% body fat and a BMI of 24), my mom and sister both talked about how I was getting too skinny, and when I said my ultimate goal was 165(with 14-15% body fat) they practically acted like they wanted to have an intervention to get me to stop losing weight.

All that said, a BMI of 30 and 35 makes a HUGE difference. 35 is not quite the 35-40% number that's being thrown around as obese. A sliding scale is still what most of us are looking for when determining what the true increased risk is. 5-10 210 is still obese, but it's only slightly obese and likely much more common than 5-10 235+. If it takes 35 BMI to be severely at risk, that's a much lower percentage. Estimated around 18% are severely obese(35+).
AgsMyDude
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AG
Infection_Ag11 said:

The_Fox said:

tysker said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death is the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.
I posted this elsewhere but hypertension is possibly over-diagnosed:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030030/. And obesity is a BMI of 30 or greater. There is a large difference in health outcomes from having a BMI of 30 versus BMI of 35. A 5'10" guys that weighs 210 is "obese."


Are we country of sick, unhealthy people or over-diagnosed people?
A Doc said on one of the other threads that a BMI of 35+ was the danger area. Good god, if you have a BMI of over 35, you are at risk for all kinds of things. Stop eating and start jogging.


Most people think a BMI of 35+ is someone from that 600 pound life show.

A 5'10" male who weighs 235 has a BMI around 35. We all know numerous people with BMIs that high or much higher. It's not something unusual at all.

Some of my favorite posts from the other board are the BMI deniers. Hilarious stuff.
Joe Exotic
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AG
Infection_Ag11 said:

Joe Exotic said:

I think the cold hard reality is that this disease is relatively harmless for healthy people under 65.


For non-obese, non-hypertensive, non-diabetic, etc. people <65, which is a minority of adults >30 in America.

And even then, a small percentage of truly healthy young people do get very sick or die. Additionally, death isn't the only negative long term sequelae of this. Nobody is talking about the good number of patients who recover but have significant residual kidney, lung or cardiac damage.


What percentage of infected people under 65 and 55 are leaving the hospital with lifelong kidney, lung, and cardiandamage?
 
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