Got into a discussion with friends, most of whom think schools should remain closed until we get this pandemic under control. My counter-point was that kids aren't transmitting or being affected by covid, and as such, the least harm to them and society would be for them to be in school. They wanted proof.

Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics states that kids should be in school:

Quote:

---

Almost 6 months into the pandemic, accumulating evidence and collective experience argue that children, particularly school-aged children, are far less important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than adults. Therefore, serious consideration should be paid toward strategies that allow schools to remain open, even during periods of COVID-19 spread. In doing so, we could minimize the potentially profound adverse social, developmental, and health costs that our children will continue to suffer until an effective treatment or vaccine can be developed and distributed or, failing that, until we reach herd immunity.

---

https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879

But what about kids dying!?!? My friend posted an incorrect stat that the death rate in school aged children is .013%. Wrong. That's the % of covid deaths in school aged children.

I'm a numbers guy, so I started looking into the facts.

Current IFR for school aged children is between .0016% and .00013%.



https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863

If we make some broad assumptions, here's how many kids could die from covid in 2020:

59 million (school aged children) * 0.6 (herd immunity threshold) * 0.2 (infection rate) * .000016 IFR = 113 dead

If you say all kids exposed get infected to reach herd immunity at 60%, then that's still only 566 deaths.

Comparing that to the 10 leading causes of death in children (who will be staying home when not in school):

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2018/12/21/child-death

6000 deaths / year from fire, suffocation, drugs and firearms, all of which are located in the home. And when parents are at work and they are "homeschooling". Even more likely.

4200 deaths / year from automobiles. That means a child is 7x more likely to from playing in the streets or on the way to daycare than from covid-19 at school.

Tell me again why we aren't opening up schools?!?!

Great points. But right or wrong, the debate on opening schools really has absolutely nothing to do with whether the kids will get it and die.

That's not really the point anyone has been making. I've seen more concern with whether they will spread it around back to their homes and what the safety level will be for the teachers.

So, yeah, wonderful stats about what kids are likely to die from, but rather meaningless to the opening school discussion that has been going on in multiple other threads.

That argument holds no water. Children dont transmit to adults. The adults in schools are more likely to transmit to each other.

I'm just saying that his argument that kids might die is fairly irrelevant to any discussions on the subject that I've seen.

And I am not entirely positive that middle school and high school aged kids can't transmit this to adults. For all practical purposes, high school kids are adults (with juvenile minds..... i kid, i kid)

As to your concern, it seems to be misplaced. Children are not frequent drivers of spread.

Based on what we know, elementary school children do not seem to be vectors for COVID in the way they are for other pathogens.

https://www.uvm.edu/uvmnews/news/kids-rarely-transmit-covid-19-say-uvm-docs-top-journal

Quote:

---

A commentary published in the journal Pediatrics, the official peer-reviewed journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics, concludes that children infrequently transmit Covid-19 to each other or to adults and that many schools, provided they follow appropriate social distancing guidelines and take into account rates of transmission in their community, can and should reopen in the fall.

The authors, Benjamin Lee, M.D. and William V. Raszka, Jr., M.D., are both pediatric infectious disease specialists on the faculty of the University of Vermont's Larner College of Medicine. Dr. Raszka is an associate editor of Pediatrics.

The authors of the commentary, titled "COVID-19 Transmission and Children: The Child Is Not to Blame," base their conclusions on a new study published in the current issue of Pediatrics, "COVID-19 in Children and the Dynamics of Infection in Families," and four other recent studies that examine Covid-19 transmission by and among children.

In the new Pediatrics study, Klara M. Posfay-Barbe, M.D., a faculty member at University of Geneva's medical school, and her colleagues studied the households of 39 Swiss children infected with Covid-19. Contract tracing revealed that in only three (8%) was a child the suspected index case, with symptom onset preceding illness in adult household contacts.

In a recent study in China, researchers' contact tracing demonstrated that of the 68 children with Covid-19 admitted to Qingdao Women's and Children's Hospital from January 20 to February 27, 2020, 96% were household contacts of previously infected adults. In another study of Chinese children, nine of 10 children admitted to several provincial hospitals outside Wuhan contracted Covid-19 from an adult, with only one possible child-to-child transmission, based on the timing of disease onset.

In a French study, a boy with Covid-19 exposed over 80 classmates at three schools to the disease. None contracted it. Transmission of other respiratory diseases, including influenza transmission, was common at the schools.

In a study in New South Wales, nine infected students and nine staff across 15 schools exposed a total of 735 students and 128 staff to Covid-19. Only two secondary infections resulted, one transmitted by an adult to a child.

"The data are striking," said Dr. Raszka. "The key takeaway is that children are not driving the pandemic. After six months, we have a wealth of accumulating data showing that children are less likely to become infected and seem less infectious; it is congregating adults who aren't following safety protocols who are responsible for driving the upward curve."

Rising cases among adults and children in Texas childcare facilities, which have seen 894 Covid-19 cases among staff members and 441 among children in 883 child care facilities across the state, have the potential to be misinterpreted, Dr. Raszka said. He has not studied the details of the outbreak.

"There is widespread transmission of Covid-19 in Texas today, with many adults congregating without observing social distancing or wearing masks," he said. "While we don't yet know the dynamics of the outbreak, it is unlikely that infants and young children in daycare are driving the surge. Based on the evidence, it's more plausible that adults are passing the infection to the children in the vast majority of cases."

Additional support for the notion that children are not significant vectors of the disease comes from mathematical modeling, the authors say. Models show that community-wide social distancing and widespread adoption of facial cloth coverings are far better strategies for curtailing disease spread, and that closing schools adds little. The fact that schools have reopened in many Western European countries and in Japan without seeing a rise in community transmissions bears out the accuracy of the modeling.

Reopening schools in a safe manner this fall is important for the healthy development of children, the authors say. "By doing so, we could minimize the potentially profound adverse social, developmental, and health costs that our children will continue to suffer until an effective treatment or vaccine can be developed and distributed, or failing that, until we reach herd immunity," the paper concludes.

---

I'm still curious what it is about this virus that makes elementary age kids NOT spread it around to other people like they apparently do virtually every other damn cold and/or stomach virus every year.

I very rarely get sick, but the most often I have been sick was when my kids were in elementary school or younger, bringing all kinds of crap back home from daycare / school.

Reposted from other thread:

First, I have been very consistent with my opinion about this issue. I think teachers are essential workers, and we need to be in the classroom.

Whatever opinion you have about the severity of the virus and how it affects students, the general public, health officials, and leaders are not swayed. The data suggests that schools that have reopened have not experienced spikes in cases. Data also reveals that children may not be spreaders, and children have a minuscule chance of dying form Covid-19. None of this matters. When you have the top health official in Travis County stating that by reopening schools, 40 - 1300+ students potentially could die (in TRAVIS county) that is fear-mongering and extremely irresponsible. I know that and you know that.

Here's the deal. The countries that reopened schools had their positivity rate below 6%. Regardless of how you feel about the validity of the numbers, this is what health officials are following to inform their actions. You may believe that the virus is not severe enough to justify closures or even mitigation strategies in schools. In addition, you my believe that even if there are minimal fatalities associated with reopening schools, this is a small albeit tragic sacrifice for protecting the economy. Most people do not share your viewpoint. At this time, we will not treat this virus like we treat the flu or any other communicable disease. Whatever you think should happen is irrelevant to what is going to happen.

Let's also consider the logistical nightmare reopening schools will create if we continue to strive to slow the spread. I am basing this conversation on the mitigation strategies in Texas schools.

We will socially distance. If districts must either offer 100% "traditional" or 100% online, how many students from low SES homes will attend on campus? Many economically disadvantaged students need meals provided for them. From my understanding, those students who participate online will not be eligible for free or reduced breakfast or lunch. In schools that have a large majority of low SES students, social distancing is going to be virtually impossible.

We will wear masks. Children do not have a deep understanding about mortality. It is going to be difficult for children to understand the significance of PPE. Mask wearing is going to be a challenge for adults and immensely challenging for students. If adults in their households have been demonstrating civil disobedience regarding masks and mandates, this will also cause issues.

Teachers will be members of the Covid 19 Prevention Police. Teachers will spend quite a bit of their instructional time enforcing the mitigation measures that are required on campus. I invite you to my classroom of 30 6th graders. I've taught for 23 years, and I have impeccable classroom management, but they are sixth graders and often suffer from "brain damage." Sometimes, teachers are beaten down and stop enforcing rules and regulations. This will undermine teachers who are attempting to follow mandates. What will be the consequences of a student who refuses to follow the guidelines?

Many, many students, teachers, and staff will miss time. Right now, my family and I are self-isolating. I developed a dry cough last Friday. I am only experiencing one symptom, and my family is not showing any symptoms, but I need to self-isolate for 10 days after I first noticed my cough. In my district, if an employee has any Covid-19 symptom he/she must stay home and self-isolate until fever free for 3 days, 10 days after onset of symptom(s), and a noticeable improvement. Employees may consult with a doctor and have a note that will allow them to return to work as well. Where are the substitutes lined up to take over for employees who are out for many days with congestion. sneezing, coughing, or fever etc.

I'm not even going to discuss issues with assemblies, ARDs, safety drills, cafeteria, locker rooms, and buses.

Unless we decide that we are not going to slow the spread and only use minimal mitigation strategies, this is our reality. Nevertheless, I realize we must open schools. I'm ready to mask up and get started regardless of the challenges.

If this holds out to be significant, this could be a pain in the rear.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

ursusguy said:

---

If this holds out to be significant, this could be a pain in the rear.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

---

This is a faulty study.

Firstly, it suffers from a small n problem. (Why are there so few teenagers in the sample? Because so few get intense symptoms! They ignore this conditional probability!)

But more egregiously, the study authors *guess* at the direction of transmission!

In Iceland they actually sequenced virus genomes within families and found the exact opposite of what this paper suggests.

AggieYankee1 said:

---

cone said:

---

I'll disagree slightly

this crash course in home schooling is making me question the overall value

if that factors into expendability, well that's part of the cost

---

How about we as a community come together and remind ourselves of how priceless teachers really are to our community and then agree not to make them walk to plank... deal?

The quality of their education is measureD against the quality of the environment they are in - and right now they are in an environment that is spreading a deadly novel virus that can kill somebody with high blood pressure diabetes over the age of 50 and a cancer survivor And that describes a hell of a lot of teachers doesn't it?

ALL LIVES MATTER!!! RIGHT???

---

Then they can quit and the school can hire a younger teacher.

You need to back off the emotional appeals and start quantifying your arguments. There is some very valuable analytical and data driven posts on this thread and emotional outbursts don't add a lot to the discussion.

AggieYankee1 said:

---

cone said:

---

I'll disagree slightly

this crash course in home schooling is making me question the overall value

if that factors into expendability, well that's part of the cost

---

How about we as a community come together and remind ourselves of how priceless teachers really are to our community and then agree not to make them walk to plank... deal?

The quality of their education is measureD against the quality of the environment they are in - and right now they are in an environment that is spreading a deadly novel virus that can kill somebody with high blood pressure diabetes over the age of 50 and a cancer survivor And that describes a hell of a lot of teachers doesn't it?

ALL LIVES MATTER!!! RIGHT???

---

Ban the troll.

AggieYankee1 said:

---

cone said:

---

I'll disagree slightly

this crash course in home schooling is making me question the overall value

if that factors into expendability, well that's part of the cost

---

How about we as a community come together and remind ourselves of how priceless teachers really are to our community and then agree not to make them walk to plank... deal?

The quality of their education is measureD against the quality of the environment they are in - and right now they are in an environment that is spreading a deadly novel virus that can kill somebody with high blood pressure diabetes over the age of 50 and a cancer survivor And that describes a hell of a lot of teachers doesn't it?

ALL LIVES MATTER!!! RIGHT???

---

They should quit or collateral damage/F16 posters. . .

. . .and some lives matter more than others.

AggieYankee1 said:

---

Leather Tuscadero said:

---

You need to back off the emotional appeals and start quantifying your arguments. There is some very valuable analytical and data driven posts on this thread and emotional outbursts don't add a lot to the discussion.

---

Explain to me how the risk of someone getting COVID goes down when you lock them in a room of 20 18 yrs old for 6-7 hrs a day - and tell me again I'm not using facts. And then give that teacher HTN - diabetes and a cancer survivor.

The fact that facts support my argument leads me to get upset when people who are not relying on facts are acting purely out of emotion by saying "open it up" Those same people demanded the Texas economy be opened up and now hospitals are in a worse situation than they were back in May.

They don't have facts and are upset - I Do Have facts am upset.

Let's see who staff bans first... I have my guess.

---

This is still an emotional appeal and short quantitative analysis.

What percentage of teachers are high risk? What is their chance of infection? How many children will be infected? Of those how many will attend in person? How many will die or just get sick?

These are the questions we need answered to determine acceptable levels of risk. And we need numbers derived from statistical probability, not emotion.

Because the truth is this. If only one at risk teacher dies then it's okay to send kids back. It's not okay if 1,000,000 die. We can all agree on those two statements I'm guessing. So we need to determine 1. How many is too many and 2. how many it will be.

The_Fox said:

---

AggieYankee1 said:

---

cone said:

---

I'll disagree slightly

this crash course in home schooling is making me question the overall value

if that factors into expendability, well that's part of the cost

---

How about we as a community come together and remind ourselves of how priceless teachers really are to our community and then agree not to make them walk to plank... deal?

The quality of their education is measureD against the quality of the environment they are in - and right now they are in an environment that is spreading a deadly novel virus that can kill somebody with high blood pressure diabetes over the age of 50 and a cancer survivor And that describes a hell of a lot of teachers doesn't it?

ALL LIVES MATTER!!! RIGHT???

---

Then they can quit and the school can hire a younger teacher.

---

The problem is there aren't a whole lot of young teachers (or really any demographic) to hire right now. The subset of people wanting to teach for the amount of pay and the stuff you have to put up with is pretty small.

The teachers now coming out of the woodwork and complaining about their safety is infuriating. I'm hearing many upset about how they are having to go back to work in unsafe environments. What about all the essential workers who have been in the middle of this from day 1? I myself work in an industry that is deemed essential and have gotten up and gone into the world every day once this started. Do I get to complain too?

flogmat said:

---

The teachers now coming out of the woodwork and complaining about their safety is infuriating. I'm hearing many upset about how they are having to go back to work in unsafe environments. What about all the essential workers who have been in the middle of this from day 1? I myself work in an industry that is deemed essential and have gotten up and gone into the world every day once this started. Do I get to complain too?

---

I don't understand why anyone isn't talking about the safety of the children. Between 4 and 5 children die every day from neglect and abuse. That's a statistic that's held firm for almost the last 20 years. Something like 80% of those deaths are caused by parents/immediate family members.

That number will most certainly go up if schools are not open. And there is probably a significant number of kids who will be victims of abuse who otherwise would not have because working parents will be desperate to find someone to watch their kids.

Statistics show that children are much more at risk from injury or death from any number of other things besides this virus.

Closing schools to keep teachers safe puts more children at risk of injury and death.

I realize there is no good answer to this, but for all the teachers saying "What about us?", they are putting their safety above that of children.

From an emotional standpoint, that's to be expected. But when you look at the data, again, keeping schools closed is much riskier to the health and welfare of children than opening them is to the health of teachers - especially if the teachers (and children) who don't feel safe are given the option to stay home.

I'm also tired of hearing "masks and social distancing in schools won't work" when there are numerous European countries who are doing both at their schools. I know it will be hard, but to have a pre-determined, self-defeatist attitude that it's "too hard so we shouldn't even bother" is immensely frustrating.