I think true.

By the end of the year, I'm optimistic. By November? Not so much.

I'm starting to think that's possible. If the Moderna trial is in Phase 3, had great Phase 2 results, and if the possibility they are already amping up production in anticipation of approval, I think it's possible.

If Phase 3 results are as positive as Phase 2 was, there's going to be a LOT of pressure on Governments to not "get their bureaucracy on" and drag their feet on approval.

You would assume Phase 3 testing would take around six weeks (if it's like the previous phases with two shots given 3+ weeks apart, plus testing afterwards). So assume in a very rushed world they could complete testing by the end of August. Then they would likely want some minimal period of time (60 days? 90 days?) afterwards to make sure there aren't issues caused. So that pegs a super fast timeline at something like October or November before they could even try to get a government thumbs up, right? Then, even if they got that quickly and pre-produce it all now, distribution still has to happen. I definitely hope you are right, but it's hard to see how they have time to get this done much before the end of the year. I'd love your timeline to work, though!

True for medical staff, false for the general public

I'm going to make a bold prediction and say "essential workers" will be able to get it by November/December

60,000 people will be getting the vaccines in the next few weeks. It would be kind of awesome if they could run the trials with just essential workers, but that's not plausible.

KlinkerAg11 said:

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I'm going to make a bold prediction and say "essential workers" will be able to get it by November/December

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I hope you're right. While I really don't like the idea that I could get it before most in that scenario, I'd sure like to get it and be less stressed about dealing with some of the people I come into contact with at work.

I am hopeful.

Agree. As sad as it is, I can see where the definition of public depends on your politics and who is in power at the time.

One extreme could be saying since human trials have started it is available to the public. The other extreme is it isn't available to the "Public" until you can go into CVS and get it just because you happen to want it.

Health care workers will have one available by mid November imo.

Everything I've seen makes me hopeful that this will be over by next spring, but it's going to be a very bumpy ride between now and then.

amercer said:

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"Public" is the tricky part of your question.

I think doctors (and hopefully teachers) will be able to get it by the end of the year. Probably nursing homes too.

When will you be able to walk into a CVS and get a shot? Probably next spring.

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That's kind of what I was thinking.

November 1 or 31?

I'd bet early '21, but it will be a few months to vaccinate a large swath of the population and I expect a large percentage to refuse the vaccine.

Swine flu was a new virus never seen before and they had vaccine in less than 6 months

AggieFrog said:

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I'd bet early '21, but it will be a few months to vaccinate a large swath of the population and I expect a large percentage to refuse the vaccine.

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I think you are right. I am going to guess that it will be in the 25-35% range.

lol glad you caught that

Want to start by saying I am sympathetic to the idea of being nervous about a brand-new, barely-out-of-the-lab vaccine that was rushed through every phase of development and testing. Very sympathetic.

However, until this vaccine is disseminated through the public it is of limited value - vaccines aren't a solid 100% guarantee of not getting a disease. They're a tool to spread herd immunity around so that the disease - whether measles, smallpox or COVID 19 - can't get a solid footing in a community, so the disease dies out. That's why anti-vaxx campaigns against measles, etc are so dangerous; it doesn't take that many people to stop getting vaccinated before you have community outbreak again. The vaccine won't work if it's not widespread; in fact, if few enough people take it then it won't help control the spread enough and you'll have people claiming that it doesn't even work.

So, are we going to make teachers take this or they can't work? Healthcare workers? Parents with kids in public school? Children? Are we going to "force people to be part of a public health experiment?!?" I mean, the histrionic Facebook posts write themselves, no?

With our current state of political leadership at all levels in both parties being garbage, minimal public trust in government institutions, and media that is, shall we say, challenged when it comes to concepts more complicated than "CLICK CLICK CLICK" I'm not especially hopeful that a vaccine is going to be the game-changer some people are counting on.

Duncan Idaho said:

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AggieFrog said:

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I'd bet early '21, but it will be a few months to vaccinate a large swath of the population and I expect a large percentage to refuse the vaccine.

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I think you are right. I am going to guess that it will be in the 25-35% range.

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That still leaves 70% of the population, and man...it's going to be cluster. Not looking forward to that.

I agree and completely understand the hesitation against this particular vaccine due to how fast it is being pushed through compounded by the **** show that were the bull**** antibody tests that got approved with no evidence that they worked.


The ones I am worried about are the ones that won't take it because if insane Qanon/end times/mark of the beast/5g/Jewish/Catholic/deep state/big tech/bill gates/etc/etc/etc theories.

Aust Ag said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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AggieFrog said:

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I'd bet early '21, but it will be a few months to vaccinate a large swath of the population and I expect a large percentage to refuse the vaccine.

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I think you are right. I am going to guess that it will be in the 25-35% range.

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That still leaves 70% of the population, and man...it's going to be cluster. Not looking forward to that.

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Distribution under the American healthcare system is going to be interesting. UHC countries will just have to deal with prioritizing who gets it first. We will have to address, who gets it first and who will paid for it.

Medicare will cover the olds.
Medicaid will cover the poors.
The DoD will mandate it and that will cover all military.

The unknown will be how do you get the "under/uninsured" covered. A cash price or even standard deductable will mean that a lot of people will pass on getting it... Ironically a lot of these people will be in front line jobs.

It's absolutely going to be mandatory for schools (it will be interesting to see the waver process, but I bet it's don't come back to the building)

I'm guessing most employers will make it mandatory as well.

I think you're right, but I'll bet there is a lot of pushback. Especially once people are taking it and there are side effects, which will be hyped to 11 by social media. (Not talking death and dismemberment, just side effects like a lot of kids get with their standard immunizations, or the accounts I've heard of the shingles vaccine).

Like I said above, vaccines need herd immunity to work. This spells it out a little better than I did:

Quote:

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So people who are imagining that as soon as we get a vaccine they can get a shot and go on with their lives need to be aware of the real risk that we get a vaccine fairly quickly, but it's only modestly effective. Moreover, its effectiveness would be particularly modest in the people we are most eager to protect: the elderly and immunocompromised. Which means that we need to have plans now to get everyone immunized, so that everyone can safely go outside.

The logistics alone are daunting. We might not reach true normal until a sizable majority of the country is vaccinated, and our traditional method for fighting infectious disease require vaccination to attend primary school won't achieve that. How do we purchase, store and distribute all those doses? How do we keep track of who has been vaccinated, particularly if vaccination requires multiple doses?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/17/if-we-want-any-vaccine-actually-work-we-have-prepare-it-now/

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And that is assuming it's "free", IE tax-payer provided. If people are having to shell out their own money there will be even more resistance.

don't forget the Tuskegee experiments

oh wait that actually happened

to be perfectly honest, it should be health care workers, then teachers, then politicians

then start working through the rabble

If the conspiracy was that they were infecting one class of citizens in order to develop a the real treatment for another class, I would say you had something.

But that isn't what these conspiracy theories are. Now if you find out that the adminstration is getting the AZ vaccine and everyone else is getting the Pfizer vaccine, then I will be all ears