this is the allegory of 2020

Broadly available hopefully in 1st Q.

My husband is currently deployed and manages medical logistics for CENTCOM. They are preparing for wide dissemination in that region for SM's by the end of the year.

And no, I won't be vaccinating myself until after all stages of human trials are finished. Meaning, all of you. A vaccine released before it's properly assessed as safe by literally skipping entire stages in testing makes me wary, for some reason.

AggieFactor said:

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Maybe I keep missing it in other topic threads but I am trying to understand the hesitation about how fast this vaccine is being made. First, they already had a base to work off with the vaccine for the SARS-1. Second, everyone is trying to judge this timeline verse vaccine timelines of the past but medical technology has advanced exponentially compared to the last time a worldwide vaccine was needed. I would not be surprised that in 5-10 years, vaccines for pandemics will be available in just a few months, maybe even weeks.

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You can't assess safety in human subjects within weeks, sorry. Efficacy, sure. But safety? Nope.

Duncan Idaho said:

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AggieFrog said:

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I'd bet early '21, but it will be a few months to vaccinate a large swath of the population and I expect a large percentage to refuse the vaccine.

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I think you are right. I am going to guess that it will be in the 25-35% range.

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This poll is pretty interesting. There's a lot of uncertainty towards this vaccine as of right now. I'm sure it will change as we get closer to it's availability. I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of the low risk people choose not to get it.

Can we get to herd immunity if just the olds get the vaccine?

completely unsurprising

and getting POC to change their opinions on this is going to require a Herculean lift

the NYT is already trying to address this trust issue but it's decades too late and too much damage has been done

Demo_Slug said:

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Can we get to herd immunity if just the olds get the vaccine?

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No. Heard immunity protects people who can't take a vaccine or the percentage of people who don't have a great immune response after getting the vaccine. So if everyone who can take the vaccine gets it, the disease dies out because there are too few people to spread it even though some people aren't immune.

In terms of ending the pandemic it's not really important though. As long as most of the at risk people get the vaccine, the numbers of unvaccinated people dying every day should be low enough that we won't care, and we can go back to normal.

This matches my thoughts on vaccination as far as safety goes... but for schools and particularly pre-schools to open, I bet they rush pedi trials too (to protect adults even tho risk of transmission is significantly lower and disease in our population is mild).

My practice is vaccine mandatory (if your kid is in my practice, you get your shots or you leave my practice). The only shots I've be lenient on is flu (just not very effective) and still about 90+% get it. So, basically, I don't have vaccine refusals. I've had discussions with lots of my parents who say they aren't going to get it unless it's forced by school- close to 75% say no and that they would rather homeschool. I have a hard time saying I will make it mandatory. We shall see. I bet the AAP caves for teachers.

Being a middle class white guy means I am at the back of the line with all things passed out by the government, and it also means I am not rich enough to wallet whip my way to the front of the line. So, I'mma just let all you poors and all you richers get this vaccine first and essentially be my 4th and 5th stage of the trial. If you all are fine when my turn comes around, I will probably get it at a reasonable cost.

I will most likely get it but I am one of those people that does not buy the newest version of a car the first year, I like to take some time to make sure everything is good with it. Plus I am a healthy person in their 30s that has never gotten the flu (well I tested positive once but I went to the doctor for other reasons) and never gotten a flu shot. I have been deemed an essential employee but we need to give it to the highest risk, medical, and first responders first.

BreNayPop said:

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This matches my thoughts on vaccination as far as safety goes... but for schools and particularly pre-schools to open, I bet they rush pedi trials too (to protect adults even tho risk of transmission is significantly lower and disease in our population is mild).

My practice is vaccine mandatory (if your kid is in my practice, you get your shots or you leave my practice). The only shots I've be lenient on is flu (just not very effective) and still about 90+% get it. So, basically, I don't have vaccine refusals. I've had discussions with lots of my parents who say they aren't going to get it unless it's forced by school- close to 75% say no and that they would rather homeschool. I have a hard time saying I will make it mandatory. We shall see. I bet the AAP caves for teachers.

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Years ago I dated a pediatrician. I still remember the day she came home after firing her first patient family for being anti-vax. She was pissed at the parents, disappointed in herself that she couldn't convince them, and disgusted by the people behind the movement and scared for the kid.

I ran into her a few years ago at the airport and asked her about some of my favorite cases of hers (the one where I learned that medical grade leeches are still a thing) and she had become pretty jaded (as medical professionals do) but she still enforces vaccines. The difference is now the reason is 100% about her and her staff's health and not a second thought is given to the parents or the child

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/04/astrazeneca-lays-out-plan-for-producing-2-billion-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-if-it-works/

Pascal seems like an ok guy. My wife gets to talk to him occasionally. I walked past him in a hall once, but didn't have the balls to say hello to the CEO

(Edit) post above covers it

100 million free doses by October, who gets it?

I still think essential workers will, I'm just not positive the math works out.

It will be interesting to see how fluid the definition of "essential" becomes.

Are grocery store and home depot clerks still going to be considered more essential than nurses and doctors doing elective procedures?

A great point, it's why I wonder about numbers.

Isn't 100 million a third of the population?

Last I saw we were at 329 million population

Out of the 329 million I wonder the number of essential workers, that's the data I am curious about.

Looks like they are

Imo I think we will have several vaccines approved and in circulation.

I don't doubt that

Having a vaccine tested and approved by November is certainly in the realm of possibility. Having it manufactured in the tens of millions of doses and distributed around the country by then is wishful thinking at best.