NCAA Track & Field Championship – June 5-8 at Hayward Field, Eugene, OR

I have listed Projected Points for the NCAA Championship Meet from two sources:
(1) Track & Field (T&F) Formcharts [listed first] and (2) Best Performance over entire season

Track & Field News analyst Jack Pfeifer does the Formchart projections for the women and Track & Field News analyst John Auka does the Formchart projections for the men.

MEN:
Arkansas [65,49]
Texas A&M [60,61]
Oregon [55,50]
Florida [46,37]

WOMEN:
Kansas [57,51]
Oregon [56,42]
Arkansas [44,33]
LSU [40,44]
Texas A&M [39,38]
Arizona State (38,39)
Arizona (36,32)

Look at the Formchart predictions of points for the following four “teams:”
Arkansas MEN [65], Arkansas WOMEN [44], Oregon WOMEN [56], and the Florida MEN [46].

Now look at their predicted scores based solely on their Best Performances over the entire season:
Arkansas MEN [49], Arkansas WOMEN [33], Oregon WOMEN [42], and Florida MEN [37].

Notice that there are significant differences between the projected two scores.

Now compare the differences between the projected scores of the other seven “teams.” There are only minimal differences between these two projected scores.

Apparently, the analysts believe the Arkansas MEN & WOMEN, the Oregon WOMEN, and the Florida MEN are going to far outperform what they have previously done this season as compared to the other seven “teams.”

Do not be surprised if Oregon takes both crowns. Expect them to have some of their best performances of the year due to their being on their home turf and having a large home crowd at Hayward Field to provide vocal support.

=Marquis Dendy [Florida] – will try extra hard in the triple jump to try to make up for his costing his team 10 points in the long jump (his specialty) in which he did not qualify.
=Jordan Hasay (Oregon) – should do much better than her previous performances this year in the 10K. In this meet, she is running only this one race – her last NCAA race. She was by far the most sought after distance runner coming out of high school. However, she has only earned her team 6 points in each of the three years she has run for Oregon.
=Aggie Dave Brown – had the 45th best triple jump prior to Regionals. He had the best jump in the West Regionals. How he performs in the NCAA meet may have a significant impact on how well the Aggie MEN finish. We could definitely use some extra points here.

We must have excellent performances from all of our AGGIE competitors if we are going to have a chance for these Championships. We will probably need some extra assistance from other teams in the way of them not doing as well as expected.

I have listed the projected points in each event for the teams listed above [4 men & 7 women teams].
Projected points in each event are placed in parentheses after each team competing in that event [T&F Formchart projected points are listed first].
Note points using Formcharts and Best Performances are usually very similar.
Aggies are listed in the event he or she will participate.

MEN:
100m: A&M (3,1) --- Ameer Webb [3,1], Prezel Hardy, Michael Bryan
200m: A&M (6,4), FL (0,2) --- Ameer Webb [6,4], Prezel Hardy, Michael Bryan
400m: A&M (6,8), OR (8,5), AR (3,0), FL (1,0) --- Deon Lendore [6,8], Ricky Babineaux
800m: OR (10,10), AR (5,8), FL (3,0) --- Hector Hernandez, Josh Hernandez
1500m: OR (4,3)
Steeple: A&M (11,11), AR (6,6) --- Henry Lelei [10,10], Isaac Spencer [1,1]
5000m: A&M: (2,0), AR (6,4) --- Henry Lelei [2,0]
10K: OR (6,6), AR (1,3)
110H: A&M (10,10), OR (8,8), FL (5,5) --- Wayne Davis [10,10]
400H: A&M (1,0), AR (4,0) --- Gregory Coleman [1,0]
4x100: FL (6,6), AR (4,3) --- I feel an emptiness inside without the Aggies in this event; we got screwed at Regionals
4x400: A&M (10,10), FL (8,8), OR (4,4), AR (6,1)
Pole Vault: AR (8,6)
Long Jump: AR (11,6)
Triple Jump: A&M (1,4), FL (16,11), AR (8,5) --- Dave Brown [1,4] – hope he can perform another miracle jump
Discus: A&M (0,3) --- Dalton Rowan [0,3]
Hammer: FL (7,5), OR 4,3)
Javelin: A&M (10,10), OR (6,6) --- Sam Humphreys [10,10], Devin Bogert
Decathlon: OR (5,5), AR (2,0)

WOMEN:
100m: A&M (2, 6), OR (11,10), LSU (8,6) --- Ashley Collier [0,3], Ashton Purvis [0,2], Jennifer Madu [2,1], Olivia Ekpone
200m: A&M (10,8), LSU (10,10, KU (5,3), OR (3,4) --- Kamaria Brown [8,8], Ashton Purvis, Olivia Ekpone
400m: AR (8,8), OR (5,6), KU (4,4)
800m: LSU (16,16), OR (8,8)
1500m: OR (7,2), AR (3,0), ASU (0,3)
Steeple: AR (2,0)
5000m: OR (8,0), LSU (0,2)
10K: AZ (5,5)
100H: A&M (3,0), LSU (0,4) – Donique Flemings [3,0]
400H: AR (5,5), AZ (8,8), LSU (0,2)
4x100: A&M (10,10), LSU (6,5), KU (5,6), OR (4,2)
4x400: A&M (6,5), OR (10,10), AR (8,4), KU (1,3), LSU (0,1)
High Jump: AZ (10,10), AR (8,6)
Pole Vault: KU (5,8)
Long Jump: A&M (3,4), ASU (10,10), KU (6,6) --- LaQue Moen-Davis [3,4]
Triple Jump: A&M (5,5), KU (10,7) --- LaQue Moen-Davis [5,5], Jennifer Madu
Shot Put: AZ (7,5)
Discus: ASU (10,10), AZ (6,4), KU (8,5)
Hammer: ASU (10,10), KU (8,6)
Javelin: A&M (0,0), KU (0,2) --- Kendall Munoz
Heptathlon: A&M (0,0), AR (10,10), ASU (8,6), KU (5,1) --- Jena Hemann, Annie Kunz

Natosha Rogers (10K) and Shelbi Vaughn (discus) would have certainly helped.

This will be fun to watch.

MidTnAg,

Thanks for putting this all together. It will fun to watch how your forecasts develop against the actual results.

If you have time, earlier you said that all the coaches despised the regional qualifying system. Could you detail that statement?

Again, thanks for all the hard work and research.

Want ot know why coaches despise regionals - think questionable 4x100 relay DQ and Lindsay Vaughn DQing becuse of three fouls in a slippery discus ring in the rain. The relay DQ will likely cost us the national championship on the men's side and Vaughn's DQ put out any glimmer of hope on the women's.

SA68Ag,

Okay I get that we lost top athletes from the national championships. But I believe a number of other top teams did as well.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if you don't have the regional meets, how do you qualify athletes to the national meet? I think we are all leary enough of "one time" records which put athletes to the forefront only to watch those people fail to even place at more prominent meets. If you don't have the regionals, then what do you do?

Thanks for the information in advance.

If I were the Track Czar, I'd do something along the following lines.

First I'd get a committee of the top track coaches to decide how many participants per event should qualify for the national championships.

Secondly I'd designate certain conferences such as the SEC, Pac 12, Big 12, etc. as major track conferences. The top 2 finishers from each of these conferences would automatically qualify. I would also have certain conferences designated as minor track conferences. The champions of each of these conferences would automatically qualify.

Thirdly, I'd have a series of designated qualifying meets through out the season in different parts of the country using events such as the Texas Relays, Drake Relays, Penn Relays and other traditional big meets and several special independent designated NCAA qualifying events.

From the total slots allocated for the championship meet, I'd subtract the automatic qualifiers. The remaining slots would be filled by people who had the best times and distances in the designated qualifying meets . Allowable wind standards would have to be met in the qualifying meets to be considered.

The idea here is to get all the top athletes to the championship event and avoid having some sort of fluke event, weather condition or bad day from eliminating someone like a Shelby Vaughn, or the Florida long jumper who consistently excelled throughout the season from participating in the championship.

Once they all get to the championship meet there are no overs for bad days or bad hand offs but at least the top folks are all there.

[This message has been edited by SA68AG (edited 6/4/2013 7:05p).]

[This message has been edited by SA68AG (edited 6/4/2013 8:22p).]

The regionals do not enjoy a lot of support from coaches in the stronger conferences because of how difficult their conference championships can be versus smaller conferences. On the flip side, athletes in smaller conferences are often asked to do more events at their conference championships so the effect may be close to a wash.

Track and Field is battling to get any kind of attendance at their championships. The feeling with regionals is that it is actually the first round of the championships like the NCAA basketball tournament. The upsets are supposed to be part of the charm. The Ags lost some but also got Dave Brown to th meet. He would not have made it otherwise. I believe the NCAA fails in creating that first round atmosphere like basketball because fans to this point haven't embraced it. It doesn't help that so many coaches are against it and there is little or no marketing done.

A plan popular with coaches was proposed by Gary Wilson of Minnesota. It would have utilized conference champions and a descending order list to pick entrants. The descending order list would benefit the big schools who generally compete on the best facilities. The final four or five slots would go to smaller conference champions who weren't as high on the descending order list. It was a compromise between the big and small schools. The NCAA is not ready to abandon the regional idea no matter how much the coaches don't like it. The Ags will be in the middle of the championship race. It will be quite entertaining.

Regionals - have you ever heard of a track meet where there were 12 winners in each event? Why have such a meet? What is the purpose? The coaches want to know why do it this way. They sure did not vote for it. Coach Pat Henry has been very vocal about the coaches’ displeasures with the current method of selecting NCAA participants. The coaches should decide how the selection process is done – not the NCAA!

We have suffered because the NCAA Championships do not take the best performers in each event as they use to. Some are injured and unable to participate in the 12-winner regionals but are ok by the NCAAs. This has happened to us in the past. We petitioned but to no avail.

The West Regional was tougher than the East Regional. Thus, some individuals in the East, who are going to the NCAA Championship, are not as strong as some of the individuals from the West Regional. Only the very best should go to Nationals.

Look at the top 11 projected teams this year: TEXAS A&M M&W, Arkansas M&W, Oregon M&W, Kansas W, Arizona W, Arizona State W, Florida M, and LSU W. Nine of these teams had to go thru the West Regional. Only Florida and LSU participated in the East Regional.

Thanks for the breakdown.... should be a fun weekend!

Good work! Looking forward to your updates!

Good luck Ags!!

HERE WE GO! NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS - DAY 1 – Gig ‘em AGS

It is incredible what Pat Henry has done for the Aggie Track & Field program!
Finals Today: WOMEN - 10K, Hammer, Long Jump, & Javelin. MEN – Pole Vault & Shot Put

The MEN have a decent chance to win this meet, even without our 4x100 relay team. We have to get at least 60 points. However, Oregon and Arkansas have a large contingent of the top ranked participants and if they do well, we will be in trouble. Arkansas’ MEN clobbered us at the SEC Meet. Oregon has a huge home field advantage – which is really not fair to all the other teams.

The WOMEN will be hard pressed to get over 40 points, which will definitely not win this meet. I hope we at least finish in the Top 5. We are young - most of our points will come from freshmen and sophomores.

If we could at least finish in the Top 5 for the MEN and WOMEN year after year with some Championships scattered here and there, our program would easily be the nation’s best. That would be incredible! WOW! I think we are already there!

Projected points in each event are placed in parentheses after each team competing in that event [T&F Formchart projected points are listed first].
(0,0) – means that the team had participants in that event but none was predicted to finish in the Top 8 by Formchart or by their Best Performance.

Wed - Day 1 Events - MEN:
Pole Vault: AR (8,6)
Shot Put:
4x100: FL (6,6), AR (4,3), OR (0,0) --- we need the AGGIES in this event; we really got screwed at Regionals
800m: A&M (0,0), OR (10,10), AR (5,8), FL (3,0) --- Hector Hernandez, Josh Hernandez
400m: A&M (6,8), OR (8,5), AR (3,0), FL (1,0) --- Deon Lendore [6,8], Ricky Babineaux
100m: A&M (3,1) --- Ameer Webb [3,1], Prezel Hardy, Michael Bryan
400H: A&M (1,0), AR (4,0) --- Gregory Coleman [1,0]
Steeple: A&M (11,11), AR (6,6), FL (0,0) --- Henry Lelei [10,10], Isaac Spencer [1,1]


Wed - Day 1 Events – WOMEN:
Hammer: ASU (10,10), KU (8,6), OR (0,0), LSU (0,0)
Long Jump: A&M (3,4), ASU (10,10), KU (6,6), LSU (0,0) --- LaQue Moen-Davis [3,4]
Javelin: A&M (0,0), KU (0,2), OR (0,0) --- Kendall Munoz
4x100: A&M (10,10), LSU (6,5), KU (5,6), OR (4,2), AZ (0,0)
800m: LSU (16,16), OR (8,8)
400m: AR (8,8), OR (5,6), KU (4,4), FL (0,0) -- very odd we do not have anyone here
100m: A&M (2,6), OR (11,10), LSU (8,6), FL (0,0) --- Ashley Collier (0,3), Ashton Purvis (0,2), Jennifer Madu (2,1), Olivia Ekpone
400H: AR (5,5), AZ (8,8), LSU (0,2)
10K: AZ (5,5), AR (0,0), FL (0,0)

Expected points at end of Day 1:

MEN: AR (6-8), A&M (0), OR (0), FL (0)
WOMEN: ASU (20), KU (14), AZ (5), A&M (3-4), OR (0), AR (0), LSU (0)

quote:

---

we really got screwed at Regionals

---

Did we really?

Although I did not see it, from what I read the DQ was legitimate. If so - it is our own mistake.

What happened to Shelby Vaughn?

Women roll to a 42.84 time in winning heat 1 of the 4x1. Kamaria Brown ate up the curve. Others in action today:

W. LJ - LaQue Moen-Davis
W. Jav - Kendall Munoz
M800 - Hector & Josh Hernandez
M400 - Deon Lendore & Ricky Babineaux
W100 - Ashley Collier, Olivia Ekpone, Jennifer Madu, Ashton Purvis
M100 - Michael Bryan, PJ Hardy, Ameer Webb
M400h - Greg Coleman
M3K Steeple - Henry Lelei, Isaac Spencer

LJ and Jav will do semis/finals today, everything else is just qualifying heats for finals later in the meet.

Shelby Vaughn fouled on her first 3 throws in the regionals and was dq'd from the championships.

Nm


[This message has been edited by mazzag (edited 6/5/2013 7:04p).]

All Shelbi had to do was to finish in the top 12. She could have made just one sort of easy throw and gone home.

She is rated by T&F as one of the Top 10 discus throwers in the entire US. Eventually, she will be competing to be the best discus thrower in the world. She will win Olympic Gold!

I was really pulling for Shelby. A really good gal with a strong future. Could become the best discuss thrower in A&M history. She learned a hard lesson.

Moen-Davis will need some help out of flight 2 to get 3 more jumps in long jump. 6th place after flight 1.

Diamond Dixon fails to make women's 400m final for Kansas and Patrick Rono fails to make men's 800m final for Arkansas. No Ags advance in men's 800m, but none were expected.

Madu advances in the 100m.

Damn, that's the second year in a row Hardy ran 10.11 and DID NOT make the final.

We are not doing bad, but we are not doing as well as we need to be doing.

We needed Spencer to make the Steeple finals. Another blow.

We are not doing as well as hoped

MEN:
100m: Ameer Webb advanced with the 7th fastest time. Prezel Hardy finished 9th and did not advance. He missed advancing by only 0.04 seconds.

400m: Deon Lendore completed the oval in a time of 45.36, finishing with the 3rd overall fastest time and advanced. Times faster were 45.19 & 45.23. Ricky Babineaux finished 7th in his heat and 19th overall – he did not advance.

800m: Our freshmen, Hector Hernandez & Josh Hernandez did well to get to the NCAA meet but need some more experience. They finished 18th and 21st respectively and did not advance. Arkansas lost points when Rono failed to advance but may have regained the points lost due to Leoman Momoh advancing with the fastest time of the day.

10K: Henry Lelei ran away from the others in his heat of runners and advanced to the finals. Isaac Spencer finished 18th overall and did not advance.

400H: Gregory Coleman finished 9th and did not advance

Pole Vault: Ark lost a couple of points – finished 4th.

WOMEN:
100m: Jennifer Madu, just a freshman, made the finals with the 7th fastest time in the semi-finals. Ashton Purvis finished 10th, Olivia Ekpone 11th, and Ashley Collier 12th and did not advance.

LaQue Moen-Davis finished 8th in the long jump for 1 point. Maybe not as well as hoped for, but for a freshman to be one of the top 8 collegian in her event is awesome! An All-American as a freshman. Congratulations!

400m: Kansas lost 4 points when Diamond Dixon did not make the finals. George of Arkansas and Francis of Oregon did, however.

800m: Roselere of Oregon advanced to finals and as did a pair from LSU (Golue & Lipsey). These three are expected to finish 1, 2, 3.

10K final: Arizona lost 2 points.

400H: no changes - Arkansas and LSU advanced

4x100: no changes - we finished with the best time and advanced. LaKeidra Stewart, Ashton Purvis, Kamaria Brown, and Ashley Collier were our runners. Kansas, Oregon, & LSU also advanced.

Long Jump: Kansas got 8 points, 2 more than expected.

Hammer: As expected

Javelin: Freshman Kendall Munoz finished 23rd overall and did not advance. Kansas picked up 2 points, Oregon 1 point.

Expected points at end of Day 1:
MEN: AR (6-8), A&M (0), OR (0), FL (0)
WOMEN: ASU (20), KU (14), AZ (5), A&M (3-4), OR (0), AR (0), LSU (0)

Actual points at end of Day 1:
MEN: AR (5), A&M (0), OR (0), FL (0)
WOMEN: ASU (10), KU (17), AZ (3), A&M (1), OR (1), AR (0), LSU (0)

You can see which team(s) are doing better [or worse] than expected.

Arizona State [ASU] lost 10 points when Christabel Nettey did not place in the Long Jump. This will definitely knock them out of the championship race.

Essentially everything must go well for a team to win a championship. That said, our MEN won a championship [with some assistance from Florida], even though we dropped the baton in a relay race and were disqualified.

We have to advance more individuals into the Finals. However, today we have only 8 individuals and two relays competing.

Today’s Finals: MEN (hammer, long jump, decathlon, 10K); WOMEN (discus)

Th - Day 2 Events – MEN
Hammer: FL (7,5), OR (4,3)
Long Jump: AR (11,6)
Decathlon: OR (5,5), AR (2,0)
200m: A&M (6,4), FL (0,2) --- Ameer Webb [6,4], Prezel Hardy, Michael Bryan
1500m: OR (4,3)
110H: A&M (10,10), OR (8,8), FL (5,5) --- Wayne Davis [10,10]
4x400: A&M (10,10), FL (8,8), OR (4,4), AR (6,1)
10K: OR (6,6), AR (1,3)

Th - Day 2 Events – WOMEN
Discus: ASU (10,10), AZ (6,4), KU (8,5)
200m: A&M (10,8), LSU (10,10), KU (5,3), OR (3,4) --- Kamaria Brown [8,8], Ashton Purvis, Olivia Ekpone
1500m: OR (7,2), AR (3,0), ASU (0,3)
100H: A&M (3,0), LSU (0,4) –-- Donique Flemings [3,0]
Steeple: AR (2,0)
4x400: A&M (6,5), OR (10,10), AR (8,4), KU (1,3), LSU (0,1)

Projected points at the end of Day 2 (Th):

MEN: AR (14-19), OR (14-15), FL (10-12), A&M (0)

WOMEN: KU (22-25), ASU (20), AZ (7-9), A&M (1), OR (1), AR (0), LSU (0)