Plenty of people asking the source question. Nobody seems to be able to nail it down yet.

has anyone traced where this fake footage came from? Because by-god it's a poor attempt if it came from a state-backed actor. (nearly as bad and unconvincing as the Sims 3 debarcle). https://t.co/4ose8TXtzo

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) January 1, 2026

Those few last months of 2025 added a lot of losses. Otherwise it would've far less.

— Jompy (@Jonpy99) January 1, 2026

⚡️ Putin's New Year speech lauds Russia's war, makes no mention of peace in Ukraine.

Putin's speech avoided any mention of Ukraine, peace talks, or plans to bring the war to an end in 2026.https://t.co/wUOuU1TMQK

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 1, 2026

BLUF: This graphic is a snapshot of Russia’s industrial-scale, deliberate terror bombing of Ukraine, designed to exhaust air defenses, drain resources, and punish civilian life.

It is a visual map of Russian missile attacks against Ukraine in 2025, showing where missiles were… pic.twitter.com/lQ5aiS2R0f

— Meaghan Mobbs (@mobbs_mentality) January 1, 2026

BLUF: This graphic is a snapshot of Russia's industrial-scale, deliberate terror bombing of Ukraine, designed to exhaust air defenses, drain resources, and punish civilian life.

It is a visual map of Russian missile attacks against Ukraine in 2025, showing where missiles were launched from, the routes they flew, and which cities were struck:

- Each colored line represents a missile's flight path.
- Different colors correspond to different missile types.
- The clusters of explosion icons mark Ukrainian cities that were hit.
- Launch points come from multiple directions:
Russia
Occupied Crimea
Occupied Ukrainian territory

What it tells you:

- Russia is not targeting one front or one city - it's conducting nationwide saturation attacks.
- Missiles are routed along indirect, looping paths to confuse and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
- The sheer density of lines shows volume and repetition demonstrating systemic pressure.
- The emphasis is on civilian infrastructure and cities, not just military targets.

I compiled my data relating to the frontline movements in the year 2025.

- Russians gained around 4,075 square kilometer (1,573 square miles) over this period of time. This is around 0.67% of Ukraine's total size.

- Ukraine holds 79.4% of its territory.

- The Russian… pic.twitter.com/eApC8HDnVr

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 1, 2026

so the war rolled into 2026

A few more days and russia Will be at it longer than they were with hitler

Russians have just struck a multi-story building in the center of Kharkiv.

As reported by the city mayor, Terekhov, the strike hit a residential building in the Kyiv district of the city.

According to preliminary information - there are victims and significant damage.

Later,… pic.twitter.com/WZm86HTjKf

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services… pic.twitter.com/14xRdKu9Bz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

" The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services intensified an information campaign to prepare the Russian and international audience for further escalation.

With a high probability, there will be a transition from manipulations to a real armed provocation with human casualties.

Potential dates on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. The target of the attack could be cultural buildings or symbolically important objects both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, they plan to use fragments of Western drones, which will be delivered from the front line.

Putin's regime has repeatedly used similar tactics within Russia and is now transferring them to the international level."

❗️ The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties. Probable time: on the eve or during Christmas according to the Julian calendar, — Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The target could be a religious building or other symbolic object in Russia or…

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) January 2, 2026

Russian media and officials have been framing Ukraine's strike on Khorly as escalatory. They say it led to 24 deaths

Ukraine has responded by emphasizing the focus on military targets and the economic assets (especially energy assets) that power them

— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) January 2, 2026

Definitely getting (worse) bad vibes for where things could go in 2026. Russia potentially turning back to the Chechnya page in the playbook and Americans stupid enough to still be in Russia could get caught up in it. Not to mention the full blown gestapo tactics that the Russians currently employ against westerners (Americans in particular).

The U.S. State Department has urged American citizens in Russia to leave the country immediately

The department renewed its “Do Not Travel” advisory for Russia, citing elevated security risks, arbitrary law enforcement, and limited consular support for U.S. citizens.

The… pic.twitter.com/mVws761iY9

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) January 2, 2026

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Budanov has close and long-standing ties with the United States. He is the key to dialogue in the event of negotiations with Trump, - NYT.

▪️Budanov was trained within the framework of programs supported by the CIA, and long before the full-scale war he was integrated into… pic.twitter.com/IBJPrSrgwc

— Savchenko Volodymyr (@SavchenkoReview) January 2, 2026

Budanov was trained within the framework of programs supported by the CIA, and long before the full-scale war he was integrated into cooperation with American intelligence.

After being wounded in eastern Ukraine, he was treated at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center - an exceptional case for a Ukrainian serviceman, possible only with direct assistance from the United States.

NYT directly indicates: such a level of access and trust is enjoyed by only a few, and it indicates Budanov's special status in relations with American security forces.

In Washington, Budanov is perceived as a reliable partner who understands the logic of American security forces and is able to speak "the same language" with them.
It is precisely such informal ties that may become decisive if the issue of ending the war again enters the realm of negotiations.

Fascinating that the Defense Ministry decided to video (and publish) its officials giving U.S. defense attaches flight/technical data allegedly taken from a Ukrainian drone downed over Novgorod region; allegedly attacking a Putin residence. The U.S. officials look thrilled. pic.twitter.com/rzouH9Cv1N

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) January 2, 2026

The Russians complained to the Americans about Ukraine and, as proof, provided a MATEK H743 flight controller from an UAV, which allegedly attacked Putin's residence in the Novgorod region.

The point is that such flight controllers (photo 3) are used on small reconnaissance or… pic.twitter.com/4ZUY8Ys217

— Beefeater (@Beefeater_Fella) January 2, 2026

" The Russians complained to the Americans about Ukraine and, as proof, provided a MATEK H743 flight controller from an UAV, which allegedly attacked Putin's residence in the Novgorod region.

The point is that such flight controllers (photo 3) are used on small reconnaissance or strike UAVs (like the "Chakluun-K") with ranges up to 150 km.

There are 700 km to the residence of the war criminal.

All long-range drones like the "Lutiy" and FP fly on the Cube Orange+ controller (photos 4, 5 - taken from Russian channels).

Don't forget that the Russians constantly lie to everyone. Firstly, they have plenty of such captured controllers, and secondly, they use them themselves and can program any route they want - just to make Trump believe it.

They staged another show after the CIA refuted the information about the attack on the residence."

Brutal. (enlarge to watch)

A soldier of the "Morok" Battalion of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment single-handedly took out three Russians in close-quarters combat in the Huliaipole sector.

Aerial reconnaissance spotted a group of six occupiers in a building opposite the Ukrainian positions. The… pic.twitter.com/2Ah3AYIKtX

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 2, 2026

Rossticus said:

---

Fascinating that the Defense Ministry decided to video (and publish) its officials giving U.S. defense attaches flight/technical data allegedly taken from a Ukrainian drone downed over Novgorod region; allegedly attacking a Putin residence. The U.S. officials look thrilled. pic.twitter.com/rzouH9Cv1N

— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) January 2, 2026

The Russians complained to the Americans about Ukraine and, as proof, provided a MATEK H743 flight controller from an UAV, which allegedly attacked Putin's residence in the Novgorod region.

The point is that such flight controllers (photo 3) are used on small reconnaissance or… pic.twitter.com/4ZUY8Ys217

— Beefeater (@Beefeater_Fella) January 2, 2026

" The Russians complained to the Americans about Ukraine and, as proof, provided a MATEK H743 flight controller from an UAV, which allegedly attacked Putin's residence in the Novgorod region.

The point is that such flight controllers (photo 3) are used on small reconnaissance or strike UAVs (like the "Chakluun-K") with ranges up to 150 km.

There are 700 km to the residence of the war criminal.

All long-range drones like the "Lutiy" and FP fly on the Cube Orange+ controller (photos 4, 5 - taken from Russian channels).

Don't forget that the Russians constantly lie to everyone. Firstly, they have plenty of such captured controllers, and secondly, they use them themselves and can program any route they want - just to make Trump believe it.

They staged another show after the CIA refuted the information about the attack on the residence."

---

Using the Cube Orange…interesting.

Good bang for the buck with relative cost effectiveness, durable, readily available. I can see why they went that direction.

Rossticus said:

---

Good bang for the buck with relative cost effectiveness, durable, readily available. I can see why they went that direction.

---

Oh, I know how good they are. We probably have half a dozen that we've used.

But, we only do Cube Blue now - it's NDAA compliant. I

I was just surprised that that was what they're using.


When I get back to work next week, I'm going to have my engineers and interns reverse engineer that set up.

Obviously without the specific changes to the autopilot though. I wonder if they're using Ardupilot (Arduplane), or PX4....or some homegrown autopilot?

Rossticus said:

---

The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services… pic.twitter.com/14xRdKu9Bz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

" The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services intensified an information campaign to prepare the Russian and international audience for further escalation.

With a high probability, there will be a transition from manipulations to a real armed provocation with human casualties.

Potential dates on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. The target of the attack could be cultural buildings or symbolically important objects both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, they plan to use fragments of Western drones, which will be delivered from the front line.

Putin's regime has repeatedly used similar tactics within Russia and is now transferring them to the international level."

❗️ The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties. Probable time: on the eve or during Christmas according to the Julian calendar, — Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The target could be a religious building or other symbolic object in Russia or…

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) January 2, 2026

---

Russia has beautiful Christian churches.

Neat

Rossticus said:

---

The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services… pic.twitter.com/14xRdKu9Bz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

" The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services intensified an information campaign to prepare the Russian and international audience for further escalation.

With a high probability, there will be a transition from manipulations to a real armed provocation with human casualties.

Potential dates on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. The target of the attack could be cultural buildings or symbolically important objects both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, they plan to use fragments of Western drones, which will be delivered from the front line.

Putin's regime has repeatedly used similar tactics within Russia and is now transferring them to the international level."

❗️ The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties. Probable time: on the eve or during Christmas according to the Julian calendar, — Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The target could be a religious building or other symbolic object in Russia or…

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) January 2, 2026

---

Jan 6 or 7 if using the Orthodox Christmas/eve as tgt date

USA*** said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services… pic.twitter.com/14xRdKu9Bz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

" The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services intensified an information campaign to prepare the Russian and international audience for further escalation.

With a high probability, there will be a transition from manipulations to a real armed provocation with human casualties.

Potential dates on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. The target of the attack could be cultural buildings or symbolically important objects both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, they plan to use fragments of Western drones, which will be delivered from the front line.

Putin's regime has repeatedly used similar tactics within Russia and is now transferring them to the international level."

❗️ The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties. Probable time: on the eve or during Christmas according to the Julian calendar, — Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The target could be a religious building or other symbolic object in Russia or…

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) January 2, 2026

---

Jan 6 or 7 if using the Orthodox Christmas/eve as tgt date

---

Neat

USA*** said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services… pic.twitter.com/14xRdKu9Bz

— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) January 2, 2026

" The Kremlin is preparing a false-flag terrorist attack with significant casualties, using fragments of Western drones to accuse Ukraine.

According to the Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, after the so-called "attack on Putin's residence", Russian special services intensified an information campaign to prepare the Russian and international audience for further escalation.

With a high probability, there will be a transition from manipulations to a real armed provocation with human casualties.

Potential dates on the eve or during the celebration of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. The target of the attack could be cultural buildings or symbolically important objects both in Russia and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

To falsify evidence of Ukraine's involvement, they plan to use fragments of Western drones, which will be delivered from the front line.

Putin's regime has repeatedly used similar tactics within Russia and is now transferring them to the international level."

❗️ The Kremlin is preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties. Probable time: on the eve or during Christmas according to the Julian calendar, — Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

The target could be a religious building or other symbolic object in Russia or…

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) January 2, 2026

---

Jan 6 or 7 if using the Orthodox Christmas/eve as tgt date

---

6 7

/Gen dumbass...

Those drone components look really clean to have survived an explosive event...

NEW: Russian officials accused Ukraine of conducting a strike against a hotel and cafe in occupied Khorly, Kherson Oblast, that reportedly killed at least 28 people and injured at least 50, and called for the intensification of Russia’s war efforts, including its campaign of… pic.twitter.com/2SXPn3lUnc

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 3, 2026

Ukraine and the US General Staffs agreed a military document with four sections and four annexes, Chief of General Staff Hnatov said. It sets out how Ukraine’s Armed Forces will be supported, restored, modernised and how compliance will be monitored. pic.twitter.com/Vu6HW1jsef

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 3, 2026

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back openly, unapologetically in 21st-century geopolitics."

FATE

---

Regardless of what happens, it's clear that Russia has paid a stiff price which means anyone looking to upset current status quos better be careful what they wish for. I also expect, regardless of what happens in Ukraine, China will invade Taiwan at some point in the next decade. Like Ukraine, they may or may not succeed, but our obligation is to make sure it's as painful as possible to both weaken China but also continue the message to all aggressors that there will be no freebie's so you better be damn sure you're willing to pay the price.

Ukraine's spy master promoted to be new presidential chief of staff.

"Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky named as his new chief of staff on Friday, tells The War Zone that the job will center on figuring out a way to end the war and helping to calm his country's political turmoil. Until today, Budanov served as the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR)."

COS

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

Russian "Z-bloggers" are very worried about Venezuela and oil prices:

"This is not f***ing funny, you underdeveloped idiots. Soon it won’t even be profitable for us to extract oil. In a couple of months we’ll starve to death. This is checkmate for the entire economy of the… https://t.co/TxUJqK13p7 pic.twitter.com/ISxw2VkHMm

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 3, 2026

That's a shame. A damn shame.

Who?mikejones! said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

---

The point is that the West must not "ratify" (i.e. legitimize) Russia's land seizure regardless of whether Ukraine ever recovers what has been lost. Russia wants international recognition of its theft as a condition for peace and that would be a precedent that encourages other tyrants.

Good luck with that.

The eu can't simultaneously want an end to the war but also not recognize any potential nrwnrussian areas.

And unless they are willing to put boots on the ground, this isnt a winnable strategy for Ukraine. I know the euros and some Americans are more tan content to sacrifice Ukrainian people so as to not "legitimize" russia, but such a hard line makes this war impossible. This isnt ww2, Europe is in little position to make such demands.

Who?mikejones! said:

---

Good luck with that.

The eu can't simultaneously want an end to the war but also not recognize any potential nrwnrussian areas.

And unless they are willing to put boots on the ground, this isnt a winnable strategy for Ukraine. I know the euros and some Americans are more tan content to sacrifice Ukrainian people so as to not "legitimize" russia, but such a hard line makes this war impossible. This isnt ww2, Europe is in little position to make such demands.

---

Of course they can. Russia will either conquer Ukraine or continue to stall roughly along the line of contact that exists now. Neither of those eventualities necessitate international legal acceptance of the land theft with or without a peace deal between the two parties.