Stall is relative.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/03/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-makes-biggest-battleground-gains-since-first-year-of-war-analysis-shows

Russia gained more in 2025 than in 2023 and 24 combined.

Its slow going but putin is fine with the pace and losses. In fact, hes getting to a point of no return, if not already past it.

Ukriane has a personnel problem. They cannot retake the land and onyl can really slowly fall back.

agent-maroon said:

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How many issues can last night's Venezuelan mission help to resolve? It reduces the illegal drug flow into our country. It opens the world's largest known oil reserves to the global market once more, which should theoretically lower world price for oil to a level below what russia can profitably extract it from the ground. Without oil money, russia's economy will collapse and they will be forced to abandon the war with Ukraine.

Y'all can and of course will think what you wish, but I have to believe that this is one of the most impressive 47D chess moves in all of recorded history.

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I think it could very well help bring russia to a decision point if said oil can be gotten to quickly enough to keep the price per barrel low.

Iswydt

https://x. com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/2007513743404708186?s=20

I put a space in there because of the language of the tweet
Russian mil bloggers are certainly concerned

Yes. Yes it was. :p

Brutal pic.twitter.com/ApDu8cOczb

— Havoc (@Havoc_Six) January 3, 2026

Major drone attack currently underway against the Russian capital of Moscow, with all airports across the city currently closed to arriving and departing flights, many diverting to other airports in Eastern Europe.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 3, 2026

74OA said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

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74OA said:

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Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

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Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

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The point is that the West must not "ratify" (i.e. legitimize) Russia's land seizure regardless of whether Ukraine ever recovers what has been lost. Russia wants international recognition of its theft as a condition for peace and that would be a precedent that encourages other tyrants.

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So what is your solution? Because no country from Europe or USA is going to send troops to take back that land. The best we can do is to stop the war like the Korean War. Get a demilitarized zone and make Ukraine a porcupine. Get them to clean up the corruption and build their economy like South Korea did.

After Israeli F-35s laughed at Russian air defence systems in Iran, and now this, it is a safe conclusion that we can re-assess every war game predicting 30%+ air casualties against the Russians.

NATO air power rips Russia apart on the spot. Huge 2nd/3rd order effects from that. pic.twitter.com/UnM726hA9q

— Andrew Fox (@Mr_Andrew_Fox) January 3, 2026

So far as tactics go. If the west wanted to get Ukraine its sovereignty back and end this war, i think we've got good intel on how to do it.

Toys for the boys?

Venezuela, among other things, has Russian Igla-S MANPADs. About 5,000 missiles. They are designed to, for example, shoot down helicopters

Not a single Igla-S has been fired. It's an even more spectacular circus than Fordow pic.twitter.com/YLy3JuoxML

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) January 3, 2026

Following a brief lull in activity, likely due to weather conditions, Russian strategic aviation is back on the move and have completed their preparations for the next combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

- 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase,…

— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) January 4, 2026

Saint Igla of Caracas, protector of nothing in particular. pic.twitter.com/MmpyYXsRgk

— Air Power (@RealAirPower1) January 3, 2026

agent-maroon said:

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How many issues can last night's Venezuelan mission help to resolve? It reduces the illegal drug flow into our country. It opens the world's largest known oil reserves to the global market once more, which should theoretically lower world price for oil to a level below what russia can profitably extract it from the ground. Without oil money, russia's economy will collapse and they will be forced to abandon the war with Ukraine.

Y'all can and of course will think what you wish, but I have to believe that this is one of the most impressive 47D chess moves in all of recorded history.

---

you left out it deprives China of funds and support- which has been then used to support the Russian military. as well as it deprives IRAN of support, which then decreases support from Iran to Russia.

KentK93 said:

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74OA said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

---

The point is that the West must not "ratify" (i.e. legitimize) Russia's land seizure regardless of whether Ukraine ever recovers what has been lost. Russia wants international recognition of its theft as a condition for peace and that would be a precedent that encourages other tyrants.

---

So what is your solution? Because no country from Europe or USA is going to send troops to take back that land. The best we can do is to stop the war like the Korean War. Get a demilitarized zone and make Ukraine a porcupine. Get them to clean up the corruption and build their economy like South Korea did.

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Im good with that.

B-1 83 said:

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KentK93 said:

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74OA said:

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Who?mikejones! said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

---

The point is that the West must not "ratify" (i.e. legitimize) Russia's land seizure regardless of whether Ukraine ever recovers what has been lost. Russia wants international recognition of its theft as a condition for peace and that would be a precedent that encourages other tyrants.

---

So what is your solution? Because no country from Europe or USA is going to send troops to take back that land. The best we can do is to stop the war like the Korean War. Get a demilitarized zone and make Ukraine a porcupine. Get them to clean up the corruption and build their economy like South Korea did.

---

Im good with that.

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Same here! Korea is the model and it works but got to get people to point where they realize this is the only solution.

Ex-MANPADS operator - it stil requires for the target to fly straight in front of the drone and for quite some time and quite close.
Sonin practice a drone would need to maneuver like a fighter to chase the aircraft with its nose.

— Andrzej (@Andrzej94491984) January 4, 2026

The US will gain access to Russian weapons in Venezuela, enabling countermeasures to be shared with Ukraine.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 4, 2026

KentK93 said:

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B-1 83 said:

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KentK93 said:

---

74OA said:

---

Who?mikejones! said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Okay, but who is going to get the land back?

---

The point is that the West must not "ratify" (i.e. legitimize) Russia's land seizure regardless of whether Ukraine ever recovers what has been lost. Russia wants international recognition of its theft as a condition for peace and that would be a precedent that encourages other tyrants.

---

So what is your solution? Because no country from Europe or USA is going to send troops to take back that land. The best we can do is to stop the war like the Korean War. Get a demilitarized zone and make Ukraine a porcupine. Get them to clean up the corruption and build their economy like South Korea did.

---

Im good with that.

---

Same here! Korea is the model and it works but got to get people to point where they realize this is the only solution.

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The people with the most interest and influence in making those decisions are the Ukrainians themselves.

Imagine your neighbor destroying half your family and taking over half your yard while someone in another country tells you to just suck it up.

Except, absent the other country's money and resources, the neighbor would kill all your family and take all your yard, house and dog. Further, theres no way to pay back the country for all the resources you're taking.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Except, absent the other country's money and resources, the neighbor would kill all your family and take all your yard, house and dog. Further, theres no way to pay back the country for all the resources you're taking.

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The Breadbasket of the world, plenty or other natural resources, the geographic boundary to NATO, and its defense thereof a deterrent to Tyranny. Certainly we all all support FDRs decision to support Allies thru Lend Lease and Arsenal of Democracy in WWII.

That said, providing support doesn't give you final say on the outcome, just the ability to limit or terminate aid.

Rossticus said:

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The US will gain access to Russian weapons in Venezuela, enabling countermeasures to be shared with Ukraine.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 4, 2026

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I doubt there's much to learn, especially after four years of exploitation from Ukraine.

Also, we aren't even in control there yet

GAC06 said:

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Rossticus said:

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The US will gain access to Russian weapons in Venezuela, enabling countermeasures to be shared with Ukraine.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 4, 2026

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I doubt there's much to learn, especially after four years of exploitation from Ukraine.

Also, we aren't even in control there yet

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We'll see. Starting to look like we had a deal with Maduro's subordinates long in advance to help facilitate his removal. If so then a lot of the bluster coming out of there now will simply be a big show, in which case they may be more cooperative behind the scenes than is apparent. Either way, you may be right. There may not be much to glean from what's there, but you never know.

74OA said:

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Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Quote:

---

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China. The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent.

And if, on the other hand, Ukraine emerges in 2026 with a settlement that is genuinely defensible one that does not invite a rematch, one that provides long-term security serious enough to unlock reconstruction and investment then the West will have shown that deterrence is still possible, that alliances still mean something and that rogue powers cannot simply outlast democratic attention spans.

---

So, is Fareed stating that if the settlement happens and involves the seizure of territory it's unacceptable?

Those 2 paragraphs are mutually exclusive if any territory is transferred based on how he phrases the first paragraph.

That means, that this war will have to continue until Ukraine gets back every single inch of territory for it to be a "
settlement that is genuinely defensible"....

Russia may be looking to take out frustrations on Ukraine this evening.

Ryzyko zmasowanego, nocnego rosyjskiego ataku określam jako maksymalnie wysokie. https://t.co/H9d8aD2lII

— Artur Micek (@Artur_Micek) January 4, 2026

Translation:

I assess the risk of a massive, nighttime Russian attack as maximally high.

For the time being, we know that:
- radio communication of Russian strategic aviation is being recorded on combat channels.
- Numerous drone launches have begun from already 6 locations. Preparations are underway in the next ones.
- The Russians have delivered a large batch of cruise missiles to Ukrainka airfield.
- The Russians conducted another very intensive reconnaissance operation today.
- Increased activity of Black Sea Fleet personnel has been detected in the port of Novorossiysk.
- At Savasleyka airfield, intensive preparations of MiG-31K fighters for an attack are ongoing. The aircraft have already simulated an attack twice, or it has been postponed for some reasons.
- Su-34 bombers have taken off from Engels base, which will likely attack targets in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions (Ukrainian air defense systems).

In addition, there is what I wrote about yesterday.

I assess the risk of a massive attack as high, with emphasis on Kyiv or the northwestern part of Ukraine.

Ag with kids said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Quote:

---

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China. The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent.

And if, on the other hand, Ukraine emerges in 2026 with a settlement that is genuinely defensible one that does not invite a rematch, one that provides long-term security serious enough to unlock reconstruction and investment then the West will have shown that deterrence is still possible, that alliances still mean something and that rogue powers cannot simply outlast democratic attention spans.

---

So, is Fareed stating that if the settlement happens and involves the seizure of territory it's unacceptable?

Those 2 paragraphs are mutually exclusive if any territory is transferred based on how he phrases the first paragraph.

That means, that this war will have to continue until Ukraine gets back every single inch of territory for it to be a "
settlement that is genuinely defensible"....

---

Read it again. He says if the West "ratifies" the land seizure by pressuring Ukraine into accepting its loss against its will that will encourage other tyrant's aggression. It is up to Ukraine alone to decide what sort of deal it can live with.

74OA said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

74OA said:

---

Ukraine's fate in 2026 will define the world we will live in. This is the reason why the war's outcome will affect every American.

"The Ukraine war is the ultimate test case because it is not merely a border dispute. It is a referendum on whether conquest is back-openly, unapologetically-in 21st-century geopolitics.

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor, and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China.

The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent."

FATE

---

Quote:

---

If Russia is allowed to seize territory by brute force and then, after sufficient destruction, have that seizure ratified through Western pressure on the victim, Ukraine, the lesson will echo far beyond Europe. It will be heard in every capital that lives in the shadow of a stronger neighbor and especially so in an Asia increasingly dominated by China. The rules-based international order will not be abolished with a speech. It will be hollowed out by precedent.

And if, on the other hand, Ukraine emerges in 2026 with a settlement that is genuinely defensible one that does not invite a rematch, one that provides long-term security serious enough to unlock reconstruction and investment then the West will have shown that deterrence is still possible, that alliances still mean something and that rogue powers cannot simply outlast democratic attention spans.

---

So, is Fareed stating that if the settlement happens and involves the seizure of territory it's unacceptable?

Those 2 paragraphs are mutually exclusive if any territory is transferred based on how he phrases the first paragraph.

That means, that this war will have to continue until Ukraine gets back every single inch of territory for it to be a "
settlement that is genuinely defensible"....

---

Read it again. He says if the West "ratifies" the land seizure by pressuring Ukraine into accepting its loss against its will that will encourage other tyrant's aggression. It is up to Ukraine alone to decide what sort of deal it can live with.

---

But any deal they take will be seen as acquiescence to US/EU demands or requests…

W powietrzu są już :
- 4 bombowce Tu-22
- 3 bombowce Tu-160
- 8 bombowców Tu-95
- 4 myśliwce MiG-31K

Do startu szykują się co najmniej 2 Tu-160, 2 Tu-95 i prawdopodobnie kolejne 4 MiG-31K.

— Artur Micek (@Artur_Micek) January 4, 2026

In the air are already:
- 4 Tu-22 bombers
- 3 Tu-160 bombers
- 8 Tu-95 bombers
- 4 MiG-31K fighters

At least 2 Tu-160, 2 Tu-95, and probably another 4 MiG-31K are preparing for takeoff.

All of Ukraine is currently under an air raid alert, as Russia launches yet another major drone and missile attack tonight against the country, with over a dozen long-range bombers airborne along with several MiG-31Ks, likely carrying Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal” Air-Launched Ballistic… pic.twitter.com/Tj8NCtMD5g

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 4, 2026

Well sometimes hard truths are hard truths. The truth is the longer the war goes on the higher probability of losing more land, more deaths, and a potentially losing everything. Ukraine would play the long game by going the Korean route.

Kyiv has just been hit with something big... Update coming...

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 5, 2026

Myśliwce MiG-31K wracają na lotnisko Sawaslejka. Są uzbrojone w pociski Kindżał. Coś poszło ewidentnie nie tak dla Rosjan skoro zdecydowali się na taki ruch.

— Artur Micek (@Artur_Micek) January 4, 2026

MiG-31K fighters are returning to Savvassleyka airfield. They are armed with Kinzhal missiles. Something has clearly gone wrong for the Russians since they decided to make such a move.

Nad Czernihowem rozległa się potężna eksplozja. Według relacji Ukraińcy czymś trafili pocisk Iskander nad miastem.

— Artur Micek (@Artur_Micek) January 5, 2026

A powerful explosion echoed over Chernihiv. According to reports, Ukrainians hit an Iskander missile over the city with something.

Ballistic missiles are striking Chernihiv city/region Ukraine

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 5, 2026

W Kijów trafiły 3 pociski balistyczne Iskander.

W Czernihów co najmniej 2 pociski balistyczne Iskander.

— Artur Micek (@Artur_Micek) January 5, 2026

Three Iskander ballistic missiles hit Kyiv.

In Chernihiv, at least 2 Iskander ballistic missiles.