***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

9,571,225 Views | 52874 Replies | Last: 16 min ago by Eliminatus
ABATTBQ11
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txags92 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

That's one sleepy ship

If you rub their bellies, they turn over.


I laughed too hard at this
Ag with kids
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docb said:

What day are we at in this "special military operation"?

Pic is from Leningrad

It's a peaceful, but fiery SMO...
PJYoung
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pagerman @ work
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PJYoung said:



How very Trump.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
lb3
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I think that's your typical media spin and it's probably more accurate to say that Ukraine deliveries are delayed until some weapon inventories recover.
PJYoung
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Quote:

Europe has failed to deliver. Ballistic defense. Financing. The things Europe has had four years to coordinate and still cannot because Hungary sits in the room and nobody has figured out how to remove a hostile state from an alliance it is actively sabotaging.

Four years. That is how long the EU has been pissed on by Orban and responded by scheduling another meeting.

And now Zelensky is cutting deals with Gulf states based on shared drone warfare expertise. Ukraine teaches them how to survive modern aerial attack. They help fund Ukraine's defense. A clean bilateral arrangement that bypasses the entire European bureaucratic apparatus completely.
If that deal gets done, it is the single most embarrassing indictment of EU foreign policy in the institution's history. Not because Ukraine found partners elsewhere. Because it had to.

Europe built a system so paralyzed by its own consensus rules that a single pro-Kremlin government in Budapest can hold 400 million people hostage for four years while a democracy bleeds out on the continent's eastern border.

The question is whether Europe is even embarrassed enough to notice.

PJYoung
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Interesting cost comparison

Quote:

After wasting more Patriot missiles to shoot down cheap Shahed drones in the Middle East in 3 weeks than it has provided to Ukraine over 4 years, Pentagon wants to keep $750 million in air defense missiles committed for Ukraine, already paid for by the Europeans through PURL.

Ukraine only uses these expensive missiles to shoot down Russia ballistic missiles.
It costs Ukraine $10,000 to shoot down a Shahed drone with 2 interceptor drones.
It has cost the United States ~$5 million to shoot down the same Shahed drone with air defense missiles. Ukraine can shoot down 500 drones for the cost it takes the US to shoot down 1 identical drone.

Ukraine has a higher interception rate of Shahed drones than the US at 0.2% of the cost.



pagerman @ work
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PJYoung said:

Interesting cost comparison

Quote:

After wasting more Patriot missiles to shoot down cheap Shahed drones in the Middle East in 3 weeks than it has provided to Ukraine over 4 years, Pentagon wants to keep $750 million in air defense missiles committed for Ukraine, already paid for by the Europeans through PURL.

Ukraine only uses these expensive missiles to shoot down Russia ballistic missiles.
It costs Ukraine $10,000 to shoot down a Shahed drone with 2 interceptor drones.
It has cost the United States ~$5 million to shoot down the same Shahed drone with air defense missiles. Ukraine can shoot down 500 drones for the cost it takes the US to shoot down 1 identical drone.

Ukraine has a higher interception rate of Shahed drones than the US at 0.2% of the cost.





In fairness, who could have predicted that the country that manufactures the Shahed drone would have sufficient quantities of them to turn around and launch them hither and yon across the countryside when faced with an existential threat to the regime?
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
GAC06
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Is there any confirmation we've been using patriots on shaheds?
PJYoung
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Mathguy64
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PJYoung said:




Russia is using everything they have to not get their butts kicked by the Ukes a they want to send extra drones to Iran. I'm not sure I buy that. If they had spare drones they would use them in massive waves themselves.
Rossticus
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Not if, by doing so, they can eliminate Ukraine's access to some of the weaponry that's been most effective in opposing them. Eventually you encounter diminishing returns from additional waves of drone attacks into apartment blocs and civilian infrastructure.

Now, hopefully, the administration decides to take a defiant stance against Russian aid of Iran instead of seeing an opportunity to play "let's make a deal".
agent-maroon
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Not sure I'm following you here - how would shipping weapons to iran limit the Uke's access to weapons?
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Rossticus
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Forces us to utilize existing availability of stocks for our own needs in Iran instead of selling/authorizing sale to Ukraine/NATO/Euros
agent-maroon
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Thanks
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
PJYoung
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Financial Times report

Quote:

Two senior European officials, speaking anonymously given the diplomatic sensitivity of the topic, said their intelligence agencies believed that Russia was preparing to deliver drones to Iran for use in the war with the United States and Israel. They offered no details about prospective shipments or timing.

A third European official was not as definitive, saying there were "strong indications" that the Russians and Iranians had made such a deal. But that official did not know whether any drones had been delivered, or were in the process of being delivered.



Quote:

Russia then built its own production facility for the drones in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, around 620 miles east of Moscow. While Russian specialists initially assembled drones from Iranian kits, the operation has scaled up dramatically.

In early 2023, the plant produced roughly 100 drones per month but now can produce thousands. The design has also evolved. Russian engineers have modified the original into a distinctively Russian product, featuring domestic airframes, warheads and navigation systems.

Last July, Timur Shagivaleyev, the head of the special economic zone that houses the Yelabuga factory, described it on Russian state television as "the biggest and the most secretive strike drone factory in the world."


https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/europe/iran-russia-europe-drones.html
chickencoupe16
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74OA
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Why should Ukraine trust anything we say? This means we gift Putin the rest of the resource-rich Donbas, while Russia also keeps stolen Crimea and the extensive territory it is occupying along Ukraine's southern coast.

"The price of U.S. security guarantees to end Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine became explicit this week: Kyiv must give up all of Donbas, about 10% of its territory, or about 15% of its prewar GDP.

The US has asked Ukraine to withdraw from all of the eastern region, including areas it has held during more than 14 years of Russian attacks, before it will finalize the long-term protections it has been discussing with Kyiv for months, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said, describing the negotiation in comments to Reuters."

DONBAS
nortex97
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Rubio has explicitly called out those statements as false/lies.
74OA
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There's no upside for Zelensky to lie about this so I'm not sure I believe Rubio. But this would actually be good news if true.
MaxPower
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He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.
2wealfth Man
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Russia may be about to declare force majeure on oil exports. This is a big deal given the Hormuz situation. They have previously curtailed fertilizer exports. Ukrainian attacks on petro infrastructure are starting to bite hard.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Warns-of-Force-Majeure-on-Oil-Cargoes-After-Port-Disruptions.html
Gordo14
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MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.
JFABNRGR
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Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.


FACT
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Rossticus
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I wouldn't discount the possibility that someone like Witkoff implied this to the Ukrainian side without it having gone through Rubio.

We've seen disconnects emerge before.
aggiehawg
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2wealfth Man said:

Russia may be about to declare force majeure on oil exports. This is a big deal given the Hormuz situation. They have previously curtailed fertilizer exports. Ukrainian attacks on petro infrastructure are starting to bite hard.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Warns-of-Force-Majeure-on-Oil-Cargoes-After-Port-Disruptions.html

Like that's going to do anything? May not have contractual damages in a much later civil suit.
MaxPower
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Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.
That's the point. He is lying saying they were asked to cede land Russia didn't hold so he could make the deal look worse than it was.
Gordo14
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MaxPower said:

Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.
That's the point. He is lying saying they were asked to cede land Russia didn't hold so he could make the deal look worse than it was.


I guarantee you there is no deal that Russia would have on the table that would simply freeze the line of control. Come on now.
74OA
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Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.

That's the point. He is lying saying they were asked to cede land Russia didn't hold so he could make the deal look worse than it was.


I guarantee you there is no deal that Russia would have on the table that would simply freeze the line of control. Come on now.

Exactly. Russia has never wavered from its demand that it must have all of the Donbas as part of any deal.
JFABNRGR
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I think they will be coming to the table with revised demands soon.

4 straight days they have been hammered both far and on the front.

Same two major oil export facilities hit again and now a big chemical factory. **** russia.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
JFABNRGR
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“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Gaeilge
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My bad. Already posted.
Bayou City
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That same video was posted 2 days ago. it's not new.
74OA
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MaxPower said:

Gordo14 said:

MaxPower said:

He does have a reason, which is to buy himself political cover for rejecting a peace agreement.


He doesn't need political cover for rejecting a deal that cedes land Ukraine controls.

That's the point. He is lying saying they were asked to cede land Russia didn't hold so he could make the deal look worse than it was.

Here's the rest of what Rubio said:
No security guarantees until the war ends.
The US "explained" to Ukraine "what the Russians are insisting on" for the war to end (i.e. the rest of Donbas).
It is up to Ukraine to decide if it wants to make that concession to end the war and get security guarantees.

So, while the US did not expressly tell Ukraine it must give up the rest of the Donbas for security guarantees, it did say there will be no guarantees until the war ends--which Russia insists is dependent on Ukraine conceding the rest of the Donbas.

I can entirely see Zelenskyy subsequently paraphrasing the US position on security guarantees as he did. He may have misquoted the US, but he certainly didn't misrepresent the US bottom-line.
Sq 17
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And the official position is always moving. Nobody believes or trusts Putins promises and

when the members of the US foreign policy team parrot portions of official Kremlin demands

The US position becomes less than
Credible and the level of parroting also varies from week to week and person to person

Seems pretty clear that the US position wants Ukraine to agree to negotiated surrender that cedes large portions of Ukraine to the Invading Orcs and

Kyiv has politely said we would rather keep fighting
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