Very impressive strike. I had to zoom out on LiveMap just to see it. Ukraine has developed some impressive weapons systems for sure.

BDA provided by orcs

Update from Primorsk 🔥🤩 pic.twitter.com/KVsGkrhfdv

— MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 23, 2026

More good news

Russia's own classified aviation report reads like a catalogue of a military fleet falling apart under the strain of four years of war.

Nine engine failures in just three weeks, all with the same warning — "metal shavings in oil" or "low oil pressure" — across Su-34… pic.twitter.com/0M7lLAr8Eu

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 22, 2026

The rest:

Quote:

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Nine engine failures in just three weeks, all with the same warning "metal shavings in oil" or "low oil pressure" across Su-34 fighter-bombers, Su-30SM2 fighters, and Il-76 military cargo aircraft at bases spread across Russia. One Su-30SM2 triggered the same alarm twice in five days, on the same engine, and landed on one engine at Millerovo both times.

A FAB-500 glide bomb fell off an Su-34 on takeoff and landed 300 m ahead of the runway.

A military Mi-8 returned to Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea with a hole the size of a sheet of paper punched through its tail boom, likely caused by friendly air defenses.

The document covers just 21 days and 24 incidents. But the patterns it shows are exactly what analysts predicted would happen after Western sanctions cut Russia's military aviation off from certified spare parts and engine overhaul capacity in 2022.

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Russia suffering heavy losses as it kicks off its usual spring offensive.

Even if these numbers are halved, it's still a serious mauling: "The Ukrainian commander emphasized the cost of the failed offensive. He said Russian forces lost more than 6,090 personnel killed or wounded during four days of assault operations. Total weekly losses reached approximately 8,710 personnel killed and seriously wounded."

FAIL

There's a real possibility that we've reached the turning point in the Ukraine war. Ukraine is:
1. Taking back territory.
2. Outgunning Russia in deep strikes.
3. Manufacturing it's own Tomahawk-class cruise missiles (with Europe's help).
4. Killing Russian soldiers faster… https://t.co/Xh13qhOoJj

— Ramez Naam (@ramez) March 22, 2026

Ukraine shaping the battlefield into a Russian kill zone

Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/cyWB94sOKP

— Clément Molin (@clement_molin) March 23, 2026

Last night, Ukrainian intelligence foiled part of the large Russian strike operation by targeting two Bastion TELs containing Zircon missiles in Crimean. One TEL was destroyed, along with its load of two missiles, whilst another was damaged. 7 of the crew were reportedly killed… pic.twitter.com/SMPXER4jnl

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) March 24, 2026

PJYoung said:

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Last night, Ukrainian intelligence foiled part of the large Russian strike operation by targeting two Bastion TELs containing Zircon missiles in Crimean. One TEL was destroyed, along with its load of two missiles, whilst another was damaged. 7 of the crew were reportedly killed… pic.twitter.com/SMPXER4jnl

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) March 24, 2026

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DETAILS

PJYoung said:

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There's a real possibility that we've reached the turning point in the Ukraine war. Ukraine is:
1. Taking back territory.
2. Outgunning Russia in deep strikes.
3. Manufacturing it's own Tomahawk-class cruise missiles (with Europe's help).
4. Killing Russian soldiers faster… https://t.co/Xh13qhOoJj

— Ramez Naam (@ramez) March 22, 2026

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Pretty incredible. I thought it was impossible for the Ukraine to do this without 100's of billions of taxpayer money and weapons?

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Bird Poo said:

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PJYoung said:

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There's a real possibility that we've reached the turning point in the Ukraine war. Ukraine is:
1. Taking back territory.
2. Outgunning Russia in deep strikes.
3. Manufacturing it's own Tomahawk-class cruise missiles (with Europe's help).
4. Killing Russian soldiers faster… https://t.co/Xh13qhOoJj

— Ramez Naam (@ramez) March 22, 2026

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Pretty incredible. I thought it was impossible for the Ukraine to do this without 100's of billions of taxpayer money and weapons?

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They have been getting a lot of help from Europe for a long time. Try and keep up.

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That's my point. Try and keep up.

Footage shows a Yak-52 gunner destroying a Shahed drone over southern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gy3Tpr8PxH

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) March 24, 2026

You cant convince me that a squadron of relatively low cost, propeller driven planes, armed with 6 50 cals, or 30 cals, or whatever, wouldn't be incredibly useful on the modern battlefield. Im sure a modern platform exists already that could be converted or, hell, just build some p51s or Corsairs and have them deal with it.

I dont think using an AK out the back of a YAK is a great plan

Just use the T-6 Texans our guys are already flying as trainers. Put some guns on the wings and go to town.

Exchanging a few bullets for a shaheed drone is a great trade.

Another note, if you told me 4 years ago this war would still be happening I'm not sure I would've believed it. I figured one side would break by now. Massive western support plus Ukrainian bravery has been enough to stalemate a force 10x the size. At this stage it appears if a tipping point is near I'm not sure which side is closer.

Bird Poo said:

---

PJYoung said:

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There's a real possibility that we've reached the turning point in the Ukraine war. Ukraine is:
1. Taking back territory.
2. Outgunning Russia in deep strikes.
3. Manufacturing it's own Tomahawk-class cruise missiles (with Europe's help).
4. Killing Russian soldiers faster… https://t.co/Xh13qhOoJj

— Ramez Naam (@ramez) March 22, 2026

---

Pretty incredible. I thought it was impossible for the Ukraine to do this without 100's of billions of taxpayer money and weapons?

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It is. And they have gotten just that.

SouthTex99 said:

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Exchanging a few bullets for a shaheed drone is a great trade.

Another note, if you told me 4 years ago this war would still be happening I'm not sure I would've believed it. I figured one side would break by now. Massive western support plus Ukrainian bravery has been enough to stalemate a force 10x the size. At this stage it appears if a tipping point is near I'm not sure which side is closer.

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We also can't underestimate how much of a paper tiger Russia was as well, combined with their gross incompetency at war fighting. They were and aren't nearly the military force we believed them to be.

Russia being a paper tiger is an incorrect conclusion.
They have many many flaws, but still have committed hundreds of thousands of personnel across a frontline that stretches ~600 miles and engaged in high intensity combat for over four years.

Their navy is maybe closest thing to a paper tiger since getting bottled up by cruise missiles and new to warfare attack sea drones (or just modern version of fireship?). But their sub fleet is still a very real threat.

Their Air Force can't establish air superiority, but its fighters and non-strategic bombers are designed for short range point defense and tactical air support, not deep long range strike like USAF. They fulfill that role with cruise missiles and rocket artillery-not as effective as the US by any means, but still major force to be reckoned with.

The Russian army is constrained by weak logistics largely based on rail. But they have learned to fight with drones, can still mass artillery fires, and have proven willing to commit AND suffer huge losses of both highly trained and conscripted soldiers along with armored vehicles built for quantity, not quality.

Maybe they're an old tiger with poor eyesight, dull teeth, and pulled hamstring, but they're still a tiger.

The Ukrainians through their ingenuity, bravery, sacrifices, Cold War stockpiles, and NATO support have held and bloodied the Russians. They may be the best military force currently in the world - there's a reason they had ten soldiers beat two NATO battalions in half a day during recent exercise in the Baltics and in another a simulated attack sank a NATO frigate.

Another O&G export facility far from the front burning.

🔥 @usf_army strikes one of Russia’s largest ports.@1usc_army and @Raid_413 alongside Ukraine’s Defense Forces hit the Ust-Luga terminal, a key node in Russia’s energy exports.
Ust-Luga powers the “shadow fleet” that keeps cash flowing despite sanctions. Now that flow is… pic.twitter.com/pwl5rOJV4M

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 25, 2026

Are these long range strikes, or short range but deep within Russia?

Ukrainian sanctions work pretty effectively:

At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks. 1/7 pic.twitter.com/SFxYBMf2WU

— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) March 25, 2026

Quote:

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The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war.

Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russia's oil and fuel export infrastructure this month, hitting all three of Russia's major western oil export ports, including Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.

Ust-Luga, along with nearby Primorsk port, manages approximately 60% of Russia's maritime oil flow, estimated at 1.7 million barrels per day.

According to Reuters calculations, about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capabilities - or around 2 million barrels per day, were shut as of Wednesday after the most recent attack.

That includes Primorsk and Ust-Luga as well as the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Kyiv has also targeted pipeline oil pumping stations and refineries.

With its westward export routes under fire, Moscow must rely on oil exports to Asian markets, but those routes are limited due to capacity, traders said.

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boulderaggie said:

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Are these long range strikes, or short range but deep within Russia?

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I think most of these long range ones are using their new Flamingo cruise missiles.

txags92 said:

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boulderaggie said:

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Are these long range strikes, or short range but deep within Russia?

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I think most of these long range ones are using their new Flamingo cruise missiles.

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I think they are a combination of the flamingo and prop plane UAV bomber. Used in combination and saturating a focused target area to overwhelm russian ada which has clearly not been very effective.

That's one sleepy ship

ABATTBQ11 said:

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That's one sleepy ship

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The sleep eternal.

That's a long trip. Past St. Petersburg. Impressive.

Ukraine is leveling up.

BREAKING:

Ukrainian suicide drones just struck the Russian oil refinery Kirishi in the St Petersburg region.

The sky is now glowing red over Kirishi pic.twitter.com/FqpXig5Ozr

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 26, 2026

If the Ukes succeed in taking out the Russian oil export infrastructure, and they look to be doing a solid job of that, Putin is going to get pushed into a corner and do something really dumb.

Quote:

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If the Ukes succeed in taking out the Russian oil export infrastructure, and they look to be doing a solid job of that, Putin is going to get pushed into a corner and do something really dumb.

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Or he's going to get pushed out of a window. But to your point, it's a bit scary thinking of the possibilities of what "really dumb" might mean when considering the baseline stupidity that they've had on display for the last 4 years. Both russia and the world would be a much better place if he were to go away

What day are we at in this "special military operation"?

Pic is from Leningrad

Some military operations are more special than others.

the ultimate irony would be that for four years it has been mostly crushing Russian advances across a few miles of terrain...

and then once Venezuela and the Islamic Republic fall-

suddenly Ukraine starts beating the hell out of the Russians all across the front.