Is China on the brink of collapse?

22,300 Views | 229 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Pacifico
Tailgate88
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
From a Facebook post so take it FWIW but do we have any evidence this is true?

Quote:

WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING: The Chinese cannot replace the U.S. market. Without it, the Chinese economy collapses.

Here's why… China's entire economic miracle was built on ONE thing - being America's cheap manufacturing hub.

The "Chinese miracle" playbook was simple:

Open markets to the West
Offer dirt-cheap labor
Ignore safety standards
Let Western companies rake in profits

This worked for decades. But China forgot something crucial: others can do this too.

MASSIVE MISCALCULATION: Beijing thought the American leaders they made rich would protect them forever. They believed these corporate puppet masters would never let the US stand up to China.

WRONG. Along came Donald Trump, who owes them nothing.

The numbers don't lie

US exports to China: $143.5B
Chinese imports to US: $438.9B

They flood our markets while closing or restricting THEIR markets.

But Trump said: NO MORE

Meanwhile, countries like India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are CELEBRATING. They're ready to take China's place, AND open their markets to the U.S. - and Trump's willing to deal.

HERE'S what the Enemedia WON'T tell you:

Chinese exporters are PANICKING

Abandoning shipments mid-voyage
Factory orders FROZEN
Container volume DOWN 90%

And this is just the beginning. China can't replace the U.S. market that made it rich.

Reports flooding in:

Factories shutting down
Amazon canceling orders
Stores closing
Warehouses overflowing

The house of cards is falling. But the Enemedia gives you nothing but Chinese propaganda.

CRUCIAL FACT: America buys 3X more than Japan (China's next biggest customer).

Without us, they're FINISHED. And they were already on the ropes.

Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.

But other countries will step up. And TRILLIONS in new investment are flowing into America, while countless factories LEAVE China.

Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.

The bottom line: China picked a fight they can't win. While America adjusts, the CCP will face the consequences of their refusal to truly open their own markets, or to abandon aggression against their neighbors.

Game over. The decoupling is under way.
infinity ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Ag87H2O
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.
Ag in Tiger Country
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I would too; "I ain't going if it's a Boeing" is still a thing!

That being said, they're hurting really, really bad right now; so, Good Trump.
akm91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's a lot easier and cheaper to find a new store to shop from than it is to bring in a bunch of new customers to purchase at the volume of the one you lost.
akm91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
infinity ag said:

They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Likely a face saving strategy.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
How long do you want to ignore this user?
china and their economy is a paper tiger. it is so manipulated that it makes a joe biden jobs report blush. if we hold they will crumble.
Logos Stick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I wonder if they are modifying another bat virus to unleash on the world. They are not going to go quietly into the night.
Ag in Tiger Country
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They aren't the only ones; a video circulating shows a woman shopping for strawberries, where those from Canada cost $4.95 per lb while the US ones cost $1.49 a lb. If you consider Canada's GDP is the lowest of all Western nations, they're about to completely collapse- probably sooner than China (since the 'free' healthcare is in shambles, housing is 3 to 4 times that of the US, & citizens' income is 1/2 of the average US household).
Bazooka Joe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brink of corrapse!

At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
TexasAggie_97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

infinity ag said:

They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Likely a face saving strategy.
Perhaps but I am sure there will be numerous airlines ready to buy those planes that China no longer wants.
TexasAggie_97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag in Tiger Country said:

They aren't the only ones; a video circulating shows a woman shopping for strawberries, where those from Canada cost $4.95 per lb while the US ones cost $1.49 a lb. If you consider Canada's GDP is the lowest of all Western nations, they're about to completely collapse- probably sooner than China (since the 'free' healthcare is in shambles, housing is 3 to 4 times that of the US, & citizens' income is 1/2 of the average US household).
But socialism rocks man and what about that free healthcare once you pay half of your wages to the government.
akm91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
This whole China tariff scenario reminds me of Clancy's book, The Bear and the Dragon.
TexAgs91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Very INTERESTING read
FarmerJohn
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
China is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand.
ABATTBQ11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
It's a Facebook post... 100% that's just completely made up BS.
MaxPower
How long do you want to ignore this user?
infinity ag said:

They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Probably a safety concern.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
One of the critical first domino's will be a deal with the EU, imho. Once we get that in place, we can deal with Canada after their elections, and by then China will…be ready to deal.

Hang Seng is only off 10% for the month so far (30 days rather).
American Hardwood
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

It's a lot easier and cheaper to find a new store to shop from than it is to bring in a bunch of new customers to purchase at the volume of the one you lost.
Bud Light found this out the hard way.
The best way to keep evil men from wielding great power is to not create great power in the first place.

In Europe: Left wing, right wing...same bird.
American Hardwood
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Bazooka Joe said:

Brink of corrapse!

At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
Because the best way to win is to destroy your biggest customer? I think China would actually capitulate before they committed murder-suicide.
The best way to keep evil men from wielding great power is to not create great power in the first place.

In Europe: Left wing, right wing...same bird.
infinity ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ag87H2O said:

This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.

How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?
Highway6
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
TexasAggie_97 said:

akm91 said:

infinity ag said:

They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Likely a face saving strategy.
Perhaps but I am sure there will be numerous airlines ready to buy those planes that China no longer wants.
Exactly. Doesn't Boeing run 18-24 months behind on production anyway? Someone will buy those planes.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
akm91 said:

It's a lot easier and cheaper to find a new store to shop from than it is to bring in a bunch of new customers to purchase at the volume of the one you lost.
It's worse than that for them because now China has to hope that these other countries will not only purchase MUCH more than normal but not demand a HUGE discount.

These other countries have no love for the CCP and will happily squeeze them so that hurts China even more. Oh and these countries aren't dealing in US dollars so that further exacerbates their problems.

Yes, they are an authoritarian regime who have a history of killing millions of their own people. Problem is now that social media is so ubiquitous it's very difficult for the CCP to control it and they have to be concerned with a revolution. So that's another pressure point for them.
CDUB98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Looks way too sensational to be real. Pretty sure someone is just trolling MAGA world.
Highway6
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.

How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?
The 36T debt is what DOGE and tariffs are trying to fix (at least in part). The way we have done things the last 3 decades lead to the 36T
Brother Shamus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
'They will find other markets' 'Somebody will buy it'. What other markets? Those markets are already serviced and to be real, most people in this world couldn't even afford the products coming out of China anyways. If the world could replace the US, they would have already done so.
Captain Pablo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.

How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?


Yeah this country ain't doing so hot either
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Brother Shamus said:

'They will find other markets' 'Somebody will buy it'. What other markets? Those markets are already serviced and to be real, most people in this world couldn't even afford the products coming out of China anyways. If the world could replace the US, they would have already done so.
Totally agree and those countries who are purchasing goods from them now will expect a discount as they finally have some leverage. They are in an awful spot and I don't see a soft landing for them.
CDUB98
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Highway6 said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.

How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?
The 36T debt is what DOGE and tariffs are trying to fix (at least in part). The way we have done things the last 3 decades lead to the 36T
DOGE cannot fix this. Only Congress can, and they DGAS.
Highway6
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
CDUB98 said:

Highway6 said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.

How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?
The 36T debt is what DOGE and tariffs are trying to fix (at least in part). The way we have done things the last 3 decades lead to the 36T
DOGE cannot fix this. Only Congress can, and they DGAS.
Correct. I stated DOGE can fix part of the problem which is a hell of a lot more than Congress will do. But we will see how much good it does
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I think China will indeed come to the table because they badly need to sell their goods in our market to avoid backsliding . Authoritarian government or not slipping lifestyles are a Petri dish for changes and probably not the kind of changes Xi's regime wants to make. Sure, they can brutally put down uprisings in a heartbeat but at some point that leads to an out and out revolt and potential regime change . Maybe that's 5 yrs from now and maybe it's 100 yrs from now.
Ag In Ok
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.
rgag12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
If a country is on the brink of collapse, they will not collapse for years or decades even if they remain on the same footing.

It is argued that the Soviet Union was in an economic state of collapse in the 1960's. The state didn't collapse until the 90's and even then it kind of a fluke that it happened.

There's also the more recent example of Russia during the Russo-Ukrainian war. Extreme sanctions and economic barriers were forced on Russia, but they didn't come close to collapsing. Governments have a lot of sophisticated tools and levers to use in order to keep an economy propped up short-term.

So no, China may have some cracks economically but they will not collapse. Will probably not happen in our lifetimes.
Captain Pablo
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Ag In Ok said:

Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.


That's the point

China is not "collapsing"

They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes

The F16 narrative that China is collapsing (or already has according to some of yall) is laughable
Ag In Ok
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Probably goes back to Zeihan while riding his Russian invasion prediction wave commented that chime will fragment into 10 or so smaller nations.
I just don't see that happening. Civil war, not even likely. Civil unrest, likely already happening though i don't know how the video would make it out of China.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.