Zeihan seems like a CIA information ops...his views on China are so one sided and over the top it arouses suspicion.Martels Hammer said:
Peter Zeihan's work has been discussed at length here. To recap in a single sentence demographics in China and other parts of the world will kill the CCP system.
Trumps' actions might be an artificial stimulant to speed the process Peter describes. I do see in my own work some panic in China. By that I mean some vendors asking for huge price increases beyond the tariff amount and others suddenly able to give much better base prices trying to bypass tariff pain.
But before Trump came into office very large international companies had already started moving supply chains out of China. Trump is taking this and adding more pressure. Biggest stumbling block is the demographic problem from above. Everyone wants to move to Mexico and we have run out of young Mexican workers. The physical plants that are needed have been relatively easy. Finding bodies for those plants a diff story.
Is China on the brink of collapse?
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WestAustinAg said:Zeihan seems like a CIA information ops...his views on China are so one sided and over the top it arouses suspicion.Martels Hammer said:
Peter Zeihan's work has been discussed at length here. To recap in a single sentence demographics in China and other parts of the world will kill the CCP system.
Trumps' actions might be an artificial stimulant to speed the process Peter describes. I do see in my own work some panic in China. By that I mean some vendors asking for huge price increases beyond the tariff amount and others suddenly able to give much better base prices trying to bypass tariff pain.
But before Trump came into office very large international companies had already started moving supply chains out of China. Trump is taking this and adding more pressure. Biggest stumbling block is the demographic problem from above. Everyone wants to move to Mexico and we have run out of young Mexican workers. The physical plants that are needed have been relatively easy. Finding bodies for those plants a diff story.
I agree. The best counter argument I have seen is that he is not CIA but the reader of a single news letter that is US State Department adjacent that has most of the same insights.
But some, not all, of his thoughts are evident for anyone working with China made industrial products.
Bird Poo said:Meanwhile, companies like Southwest order 70-100 planes per year. I think Boeing will survive.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Boeing survives because its susbsized by the taxpayers
Yeah - this is the problem and its getting worse. China is pushing their GDP up and per-person income up as fast as they can (faster than ours is going up). Eventually we lose leverage with them as a trading partner when their domestic consumption can keep them stable without US exports. They aren't there yet - but every year it gets better for them. Who's to say where they would be in another 10-15 years if nothing had changed?Kansas Kid said:Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.
That's the point
China is not "collapsing"
They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes
The F16 narrative that China is collapsing (or already has according to some of yall) is laughable
Their total economy is $20t and the export $0.5t to the US. If that goes totally away, it is 2.5% of their economy. Far from a total collapse. If they collapse, it will because of their Communist ways and their real estate speculation.
PS. On the other hand, those that think they will be the dominant world economy remind me of those saying the same thing about Japan in the late 80s.
There is a lot of ruin in a country. The base line here is that it will take a LOT to completely wreck their economy. No, they cannot replace the US market. And they can flood other markets with their product which is a short term solution with lots of medium/long term problems.
And yes the US will suffer for this in the short term. But if the US can enact smart trade deals it can live without a lot of Chinese produced goods. A trade war like this will shift after 18-24 months which is the amount of time that it will take to get production up to speed in lots of countries, the earlier those trade deals get completed, the earlier we can get that process started and will put us in a much better position.
The house of cards in the Chinese economy is the amount and how real estate is used as the primary driver of savings and retirement funds in China. But that system has real flaws, exacerbated by poor materials, codes and corruption. There is a reason the CCP is massively intervening in the Shanghai and HK stock markets.
I'll believe that China is going to be really whacked if their real estate market begins to fail. They've been close a couple of times already. But if that happens... Katie bar the door.
And yes the US will suffer for this in the short term. But if the US can enact smart trade deals it can live without a lot of Chinese produced goods. A trade war like this will shift after 18-24 months which is the amount of time that it will take to get production up to speed in lots of countries, the earlier those trade deals get completed, the earlier we can get that process started and will put us in a much better position.
The house of cards in the Chinese economy is the amount and how real estate is used as the primary driver of savings and retirement funds in China. But that system has real flaws, exacerbated by poor materials, codes and corruption. There is a reason the CCP is massively intervening in the Shanghai and HK stock markets.
I'll believe that China is going to be really whacked if their real estate market begins to fail. They've been close a couple of times already. But if that happens... Katie bar the door.
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
nortex97 said:
One of the critical first domino's will be a deal with the EU, imho. Once we get that in place, we can deal with Canada after their elections, and by then China will…be ready to deal.MNI: EU-CHINA EV RESOLUTION HOPES DIM AFTER U.S. THREATS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 15, 2025
The European Union is likely to suspend its efforts to reach a resolution with China over its tariffs on electrical vehicle imports pending the outcome of ongoing EU-U.S. tariff negotiations, EU trade sources said.
EU…
Hang Seng is only off 10% for the month so far (30 days rather).
Spain's President Sanchez is shamelessly sucking up to China this week. He despises Trump so deeply that he's willing to make a deal with the devil. The man is a feckless, politically shrewd "leader." But he seriously has no idea what he's doing. China will eat him alive, and he's totally clueless.
Yeah but the eu is really still run by France and Germany. The irony is that last weeks sino Spanish agreement only really mattered about pork exports to china. But china also functionally owns our pork industry and is now tariffing the hell out of imports from us I think.
Which is a long way of getting around to my hope that our bacon and ham prices drop a lot.
Which is a long way of getting around to my hope that our bacon and ham prices drop a lot.
China gets backed into a corner and then what?
Does Jinping retain control and respond out of deperation, or is he overthrown, and by whom? What are they going to do?
If they have control of a bunch of our cyber infrastructure, that could mean some bad times for us. We should have been countering the CCP years ago, instead of propping them up.
Hopefully we're thinking about second and third order effects and not moving so fast as to trigger a nothing to lose response.
Sun Tzu would recommend already having the battle won before the fight. Still a valid strategy today.
Does Jinping retain control and respond out of deperation, or is he overthrown, and by whom? What are they going to do?
If they have control of a bunch of our cyber infrastructure, that could mean some bad times for us. We should have been countering the CCP years ago, instead of propping them up.
Hopefully we're thinking about second and third order effects and not moving so fast as to trigger a nothing to lose response.
Sun Tzu would recommend already having the battle won before the fight. Still a valid strategy today.
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!.
aggie93 said:
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
So how desperate do you think they will get? Think they will feel so trapped in the corner that they will lash out militarily?
or they just start shooting.Logos Stick said:
I wonder if they are modifying another bat virus to unleash on the world. They are not going to go quietly into the night.
We have to discuss timelines first. Because they can lash out militarily all they want, but they aren't ready for the smoke that would bring. Now, 10 years from now and we have ourselves a large problem.Tramp96 said:aggie93 said:
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
So how desperate do you think they will get? Think they will feel so trapped in the corner that they will lash out militarily?
I am way more concerned about our crappy infrastructure and their ability to cause problems than their military being blue water ready for a fight.
They will just wait it out. They don't care about the human suffering.
infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Oh no! Ten planes? TEN? Whatever will we do?
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
Certainly possible, Taiwan is the obvious target but that's a regime ending move for them and extremely risky at best to pull off. The main thing in looking at China is don't expect them to play by Western rules and standards and also realize that the main priority is the CCP staying in power as long as possible. Most people look at China thinking they will somehow think like we do and they don't, it's a completely different culture and mindset.Tramp96 said:aggie93 said:
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
So how desperate do you think they will get? Think they will feel so trapped in the corner that they will lash out militarily?
The best move is disengagement which is what we are fundamentally doing. We don't want to be dependent on them for anything but we also don't want to overly antagonize them. It's a very complicated and dangerous game but we have up until Trump's first term we weren't even discussing it. This is really just the next phase in our separation from China that started several years ago and even Biden was on board with it for the most part (Dems don't actually disagree with the policy they just either want credit or they want to blame Trump).
The biggest key to all of this is don't get caught up in any one move and for the most part ignore the media who have no clue what is going on.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
TacosaurusRex said:We have to discuss timelines first. Because they can lash out militarily all they want, but they aren't ready for the smoke that would bring. Now, 10 years from now and we have ourselves a large problem.Tramp96 said:aggie93 said:
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
So how desperate do you think they will get? Think they will feel so trapped in the corner that they will lash out militarily?
I am way more concerned about our crappy infrastructure and their ability to cause problems than their military being blue water ready for a fight.
If Xi sees no alternative (i.e. governmental collapse/social unrest with the possibility of losing power) he won't care about the consequences of military action.
If he perceives that attacking Taiwan would be a unifying thing for the Chinese people at a time of growing unrest, that would absolutely be viewed as preferable to collapse and well worth the risk.
China was in trouble before Trump's trade jihad; this will only increase the pace of the inevitable. Think Downfall.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
aren't the vast majority of their naval ships close in-shore types (as in not open ocean vessels)? Thought I read that somewhere. They do have way more ships than the US, but they can only operate close to shore.TacosaurusRex said:We have to discuss timelines first. Because they can lash out militarily all they want, but they aren't ready for the smoke that would bring. Now, 10 years from now and we have ourselves a large problem.Tramp96 said:aggie93 said:
The main thing I am watching is China is using some of their haymakers and they aren't landing but they will cause long term damage to China.
Great example is how you have all these Chinese videos coming out showing how luxury products are made there on the cheap and the luxury companies make a huge profit.
First off, I don't think anyone with a brain looks at buying Gucci or Hermes and thinking it is all about quality. It's about status, style, and quality. The type of person that spends $10k for a purse is doing it as a statement. That is about marketing and brand, something that has zero to do with how much it actually costs to make the product. Some of the folks who buy from them actually love the fact they are completely overpriced because that limits who can buy them, that's the point.
I'm sure a few folks will buy some of the knock offs they are trying to sell but it won't move the needle. Sure it will hurt some of those companies but ironically many of those are owned by people that are more likely to be allies to China already. Many of the companies they are hurting are also European so it's extra stupid.
The real problem is China can't claw this back. They just openly told every company that if you use us to manufacture we will screw you over when it's convenient. We will take your IP or products and undercut you. Thus only a complete fool would allow China to build anything for them in the future. They have just permanently lost trust. It was already shaky as hell but now they are out in the open that they will steal from you and you cannot trust them with anything. So they just put a knife in their own gut thinking that some rich chick in Manhattan is going to want to buy their knock off stuff instead of buying the real deal to save a buck.
In the end this is like the Boeing orders or selling US treasuries, it's all face saving. These are the only bullets they have and they are causing minimal damage to us but are going to have long term consequences to them. China has to act strong but all they are doing is showing just how weak they really are. Trump understands this and if he keeps it up he is going to isolate them and bury them.
So how desperate do you think they will get? Think they will feel so trapped in the corner that they will lash out militarily?
I am way more concerned about our crappy infrastructure and their ability to cause problems than their military being blue water ready for a fight.
Yes. Most of their ships are not designed to be long distance blue water. However, they have a huge civilian deep water maritime sector that would be utilized in the event of a conflict.
They've put a huge emphasis on access and area denial. Their land-based anti-ship missile systems are designed to keep hostile blue water navies a significant distance from land. Right now their capabilities could keep our carriers from being able to get close enough to practically sustain air campaigns.
They've put a huge emphasis on access and area denial. Their land-based anti-ship missile systems are designed to keep hostile blue water navies a significant distance from land. Right now their capabilities could keep our carriers from being able to get close enough to practically sustain air campaigns.
Quote:
They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes
That's not really true, given they are in a terminal demographic situation independent of their economy. Tariffs may hasten their demise as the united state we currently know, but it'll happen eventually regardless. Probably in our lifetimes.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
We are only 10% of the world debt.infinity ag said:Ag87H2O said:
This is what Trump is banking on happening. That they need American's disposable income worse than we need their cheap goods, and that we can hold out longer than they can before their economy crashes. American buying power is still second to none. We are the engine of the world economy and Trump know it and is leveraging it.
How is it we have very high buying power when almost everyone in this country is under personal debt and the nation is under 36T debt?
Or are we just buying on someone else's money?
They will likely hire Fauci as a consultant in the near future to help them with this process.Logos Stick said:
I wonder if they are modifying another bat virus to unleash on the world. They are not going to go quietly into the night.
Another thing that Trump was well aware of before starting his tariff equalization...
Some of y'all act like he doesn't get the deal. He IS the deal.
Some of y'all act like he doesn't get the deal. He IS the deal.
https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-up-to-the-same-old-tricks-but-is-it-running-out-of-suckers/
Not to forget, Toxic Dog food, nuts bolts fasteners, auto parts and so many other items that are pure garbage, but at least they are cheap. If that makes you happy.
Not to forget, Toxic Dog food, nuts bolts fasteners, auto parts and so many other items that are pure garbage, but at least they are cheap. If that makes you happy.
Don't like it, don't buy it.Artimus Gordon said:
https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-up-to-the-same-old-tricks-but-is-it-running-out-of-suckers/
Not to forget, Toxic Dog food, nuts bolts fasteners, auto parts and so many other items that are pure garbage, but at least they are cheap. If that makes you happy.
That is how liberty works.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
This is why Trump came down hard on Canada and Mexico too. They weren't supposed to do this under USMCA but it was happening constantly. It's an issue that is one of the primary concerns for negotiations. Our commercial attaches better buy a couple pairs of good boots and a hard hat for checking in on ports.DallasAg 94 said:
Larry Kudlow explained what I was talking about re - China using Cambodia to funnel goods to America.
He called it trans-shipping. Xi is in VietNam today. Kudlow indicated that VN imports about $160B from China and exports about $130B to the US. He speculated that about 30% of what they export to the US are goods they imported from China, changed the labels from "Made in China" to "Made in VietNam."
My guess is, they bought the goods from China with the "Made in VietNam" label firmly affixed. Stopped at the port in VN and sent to the US.
Yowzers! How sustainable is that?
This is from @BrookingsInst - Not MAGA or @POTUS
— Mark Simon (@MarkSimonHK) April 14, 2025
CCP is flooding world markets with subsidized goods. This is how Xi fights for survival.
---@YatesComms @DominoTheoryPod @YatesComms @seanmdav @MariaBartiromo @andrewrsorkin @nedryun @DonaldJTrumpJr @instapundit @ImKingGinger… https://t.co/t5yhe8p95n
HoustonAg9999 said:Bird Poo said:Meanwhile, companies like Southwest order 70-100 planes per year. I think Boeing will survive.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Boeing survives because its susbsized by the taxpayers
I left Boeing about two years ago after a short stint.
At the time - lead time for a new commercial jet was something like five years.
I'll bet Boeing just reallocated capacity for those ten China cancellations to a happily surprised other customer.
I think this is a big meh.
Boeing deliveries to Chinese airlines were off something like 87 percent already, in the period since covid started.
The US market represents over 16% of Chinese exports. But only 8% of US exports go to China.Kansas Kid said:Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.
That's the point
China is not "collapsing"
They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes
The F16 narrative that China is collapsing (or already has according to some of yall) is laughable
Their total economy is $20t and the export $0.5t to the US. If that goes totally away, it is 2.5% of their economy. Far from a total collapse. If they collapse, it will because of their Communist ways and their real estate speculation.
PS. On the other hand, those that think they will be the dominant world economy remind me of those saying the same thing about Japan in the late 80s.
Add our allies like Japan, Australia, UK and Canada and there is a juggernaut of market power.
https://x.com/i/grok/share/fDOOwiDdfvmXXK8XtDoZl8Fqt
5/ RIDICULOUS: The numbers don't lie
— Rod D. Martin (@RodDMartin) April 12, 2025
• US exports to China: $143.5B
• Chinese imports to US: $438.9B
They flood our markets while closing or restricting THEIR markets.
But Trump said: NO MORE pic.twitter.com/jSVm01BLkv
China has been dominating us for a while now in trade.
— CannCon (@CannConActual) April 9, 2025
Time to change that. pic.twitter.com/IIKq102G3V
At yesterday’s Senate hearing, I shared a story that every American entrepreneur already knows too well.
— Kevin O'Leary aka Mr. Wonderful (@kevinolearytv) April 10, 2025
You build something great. You invest your own money, blood, sweat, and tears. You prove it in the U.S. market. Then, BOOM — one day you wake up and see your product, your… pic.twitter.com/yUreRyqVmF
I'm trying to understand what that has to do with China saving face by canceling 10 deliveries. If subsidizing = military contracts, then yeah I guess.HoustonAg9999 said:Bird Poo said:Meanwhile, companies like Southwest order 70-100 planes per year. I think Boeing will survive.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Boeing survives because its susbsized by the taxpayers
Yes its not part of the original OP, but I was just pointing out Boeing does make it as a stand-alone company, they also get way more subsidies than "gvt contracts"Bird Poo said:I'm trying to understand what that has to do with China saving face by canceling 10 deliveries. If subsidizing = military contracts, then yeah I guess.HoustonAg9999 said:Bird Poo said:Meanwhile, companies like Southwest order 70-100 planes per year. I think Boeing will survive.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
Boeing survives because its susbsized by the taxpayers
I've been waiting for China to collapse for a while.
But I'm shocked we haven't hit a collapsing point yet, too.
But I'm shocked we haven't hit a collapsing point yet, too.
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