Oh, but according to the libs the Canadian guy knows some bond tricks and can bankrupt the US if he wants.
Is China on the brink of collapse?
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Last: 8 mo ago by Pacifico
The US is 5% of the world's population, 40% of the world's GDP, and 25% of the world's consumption.akm91 said:
It's a lot easier and cheaper to find a new store to shop from than it is to bring in a bunch of new customers to purchase at the volume of the one you lost.
American Exceptionalism / the Protestant Work Ethic are THE driving force of the world's economy.
We started down the road of playing nice to the world with regards to trade after WWII, because we were the only industrialized country that didn't get the **** bombed out of them in the 40's.
The world has taken advantage of that, and gotten as fat and lazy as our stereotypical tourists abroad.
Because our government has been so irresponsible over the last 2 decades, we can't afford to continue to play nice.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
If their people get too rowdy or unemployment gets too bad they'll just release another COVID...
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
china and their economy is a paper tiger. it is so manipulated that it makes a joe biden jobs report blush. if we hold they will crumble.
This. They will just continue to devalue their currency and at some point, even with the tariffs, their goods will get too cheap to avoid.
Ag In Ok said:
Probably goes back to Zeihan while riding his Russian invasion prediction wave commented that chime will fragment into 10 or so smaller nations.
I just don't see that happening. Civil war, not even likely. Civil unrest, likely already happening though i don't know how the video would make it out of China.
I dunno. I kind of doubt it
Did some reading recently. Democracy is a great concept but the constant turnover of policymakers every 2-4 years at the hands of a stupid, lazy electorate is a flaw, that will be fatal someday
China is a barbaric death cult, but they maintain social order, continuity, stability and have time on their side
As far as any real civil unrest, don't count on it
They tolerate grousing and bellyaching about local matters. Pot holes in streets, issues with schools, city government, etc
But dissent and criticism of national governmental matters is absolutely not tolerated. And that includes online activity
They'll warn you once, the second time you just disappear out of existence
They are not nice people, to put it lightly
I wholeheartedly believe the following is why they intentionally leaked the man-altered virus from their Wuhan lab as an act of political warfare.
Quote:
Along came Trump, who owes them nothing.
What surprises me is China is going on war footing. As if there is a point where we will return to relying so heavily on China. That will not happen. There will be trade but a fraction of what it is today, maybe 50% less. Their factory jobs for US trade at risk are not likely to come back. At all. So why isn't China moving on? One i don think they can and two they have support from many in the US to defeat the Republicans in the mid terms. Even then, what are the odds we would go back to the way it was? Slim i would bet, especially if Trump works out the EU and some agreements with ASEAN members to pick up the low price point work. Hell, even Africa for that matter.
We should consider their intentional release of the Wu-Flu as an act of war. That is exactly what it was.Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
It damn sure wasn't a f-ing accident. It was an act of desperation. No one ever thought Hillary would lose to an outsider who despises China and is willing to play hardball with them.
I'm not 100% sure Trump wants to make a deal with China. Trump has had it with China! Trump wants manufacturing to come back here….. and what doesn't come back here, he would rather see it go to a friendly country and not our number 1 adversary.
Meanwhile, companies like Southwest order 70-100 planes per year. I think Boeing will survive.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
I support the tariffs, but I think that where Trump is off base is assuming that China has a political system even remotely close to that of the West. I think Xi can force the Chinese people to suffer unbearably to keep up the pressure on the US - Trump is gone in less that four years. My guess is Xi plans to wait him out regardless of what it does to China's people and economy. As long as Xi has the backing of the military, he can probably ride this all the way down.
Let's define "collapse". Because if our economy got so bad that a ton of Americans died or had to start being starved or genocided, I would personally consider that "collapse".Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.
That's the point
China is not "collapsing"
They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes
The F16 narrative that China is collapsing (or already has according to some of yall) is laughable
All this nonsense ignores the real goal of the Chinese. China, flush with foreign investment, want the yuan to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This is their entire strategy and they are playing the long game. The current exchange rate is 1 USD = 7.2922 CNY. Despite China's deep dollar dependencies, Beijing is 100% undertaking policy efforts aimed at diversifying its reserves away from the USD and increasing the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade and finance. Jamie Dimon has warned against this as several others have. China is a declawed paper tiger with having global currency control. That is their complete focus and all the rest of this nonsense is just a distraction.
"We're going to turn this red Prius into a soup kitchen!"
China also has 1.454,000 000 people to keep employed making garbage that Americans can't resist buying. The US has 347,000,000 consumers that can single handedly keep China's economic machine running at full speed. Any kink in the armor for an extended period , will give those that are first to the table an advantage.
Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Probably goes back to Zeihan while riding his Russian invasion prediction wave commented that chime will fragment into 10 or so smaller nations.
I just don't see that happening. Civil war, not even likely. Civil unrest, likely already happening though i don't know how the video would make it out of China.
Did some reading recently. Democracy is a great concept but the constant turnover of policymakers every 2-4 years at the hands of a stupid, lazy electorate is a flaw, that will be fatal someday
China will collapse but not entirely for economic reasons. The reason that China will collapse is because they aborted millions of female babies and adopted a one child policy. Now the county is actually losing population and will implode demographically. At this point it is inevitable, there is nothing that China can do about this.
This trade war might accelerate aspects of this implosion but the cake is baked.
This trade war might accelerate aspects of this implosion but the cake is baked.
https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2024/chinas-population-decline-getting-close-irreversibleQuote:
Nothing would suggest that the Chinese TFR will reverse and rise again in the long runSouth Korea leads the way with its TFR down at 0.72, but Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, and other major Chinese metropolises today all have TFRs at or well below 1. Compared to these places, Japan is a high fertility country among advanced Asian economies.
Exchange rate doesn't mean much - it's a pegged rate. It's whatever they want it to be.MarkTwain said:
All this nonsense ignores the real goal of the Chinese. China, flush with foreign investment, want the yuan to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This is their entire strategy and they are playing the long game. The current exchange rate is 1 USD = 7.2922 CNY. Despite China's deep dollar dependencies, Beijing is 100% undertaking policy efforts aimed at diversifying its reserves away from the USD and increasing the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade and finance. Jamie Dimon has warned against this as several others have. China is a declawed paper tiger with having global currency control. That is their complete focus and all the rest of this nonsense is just a distraction.
They get dollars from us, those dollars go from Chinese industry to Chinese banks in exchange for yuan, the Chinese banks turn around and buy their own currency with the dollars to fix the exchange rate. If China wants to keep importing inflation via the peg, have at it. Capital already wants to leave China, if they unpeg the yuan...the desire for capital to leave China would be much, much higher.
China can't have a pegged currency, yuan as a global reserve and maintain independent monetary policy. They get to pick 2. Right now they pick fixed exchange rate and independent monetary policy. If they want to be a global reserve, they have to drop capital controls...which they won't do.
Before China would allow itself to fall economically, they would probably invade Taiwan and take control over chip manufacturers, almost completely creating a chip monopoly.
MarkTwain said:
All this nonsense ignores the real goal of the Chinese. China, flush with foreign investment, want the yuan to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This is their entire strategy and they are playing the long game. The current exchange rate is 1 USD = 7.2922 CNY. Despite China's deep dollar dependencies, Beijing is 100% undertaking policy efforts aimed at diversifying its reserves away from the USD and increasing the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade and finance. Jamie Dimon has warned against this as several others have. China is a declawed paper tiger with having global currency control. That is their complete focus and all the rest of this nonsense is just a distraction.
As well known as the Chinese are for manipulating their currency, in a whim, to their advantage, and without warning, there is no way the rest of the world would be okay with using it as a reserve.
This is one thing that keeps getting repeated here but strikes me as at least odd, if not outright wrong.Artimus Gordon said:
China also has 1.454,000 000 people to keep employed making garbage that Americans can't resist buying. The US has 347,000,000 consumers that can single handedly keep China's economic machine running at full speed. Any kink in the armor for an extended period , will give those that are first to the table an advantage.
If Americans want something, and as such buy the thing, and are relatively happy with their purchase, how is that thing "garbage"?
Calling something "garbage" is 100% value judgement, which will vary from person to person. Additionally, something that a middle class and higher person might have the luxury of calling "garbage" may well be a necessity to someone lower on the socio-economic ladder. You may not need lower-quality, imported dishes or flatware or utensils because you can afford nicer (and more expensive) things. But everyone has a budget, and that budget has limits. Someone with more money than you can afford nicer things. That doesn't make the things you buy "garbage" just because there are nicer things on the market that other people either can afford or put a higher priority on than you do.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
Additionally, there is no way the rest of the world would the currency from a command economy with opaque at best data available as the reserve currency.Ags4DaWin said:MarkTwain said:
All this nonsense ignores the real goal of the Chinese. China, flush with foreign investment, want the yuan to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. This is their entire strategy and they are playing the long game. The current exchange rate is 1 USD = 7.2922 CNY. Despite China's deep dollar dependencies, Beijing is 100% undertaking policy efforts aimed at diversifying its reserves away from the USD and increasing the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade and finance. Jamie Dimon has warned against this as several others have. China is a declawed paper tiger with having global currency control. That is their complete focus and all the rest of this nonsense is just a distraction.
As well known as the Chinese are for manipulating their currency, in a whim, to their advantage, and without warning, there is no way the rest of the world would be okay with using it as a reserve.
There is a reason that the US dollar is (and will remain for the foreseeable future) the reserve currency for the world.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
Or sub war efforts at massively disrupting our economy and our security.Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
China is already working more tightly with the *******s in the EU to build out a closer relationship.
They could disrupt our economy in a thousand ways...fund terrorism...step up efforts to weaken our grid and harm our internet...
We need a few more years to get TSMC to replicate its plants in US and Europe...for sure.TheRealJacob said:
Before China would allow itself to fall economically, they would probably invade Taiwan and take control over chip manufacturers, almost completely creating a chip monopoly.
we will know they're getting desperate when they unleash the next COVID.
Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Either Chinese leadership is all in or Xi will slip in the shower and land on some bullets. I've seen enough videos of Chinese saying they have been around for 3000 years and can wait this out too. Problem is, millions die when China does what China does in civil wars. Even the undeclared one by Mao to advance and "modernize" the CCP.
That's the point
China is not "collapsing"
They can wait as many years and kill as many of its own people as it takes
The F16 narrative that China is collapsing (or already has according to some of yall) is laughable
Their total economy is $20t and the export $0.5t to the US. If that goes totally away, it is 2.5% of their economy. Far from a total collapse. If they collapse, it will because of their Communist ways and their real estate speculation.
PS. On the other hand, those that think they will be the dominant world economy remind me of those saying the same thing about Japan in the late 80s.
Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
Most folks either don't know, or casually forget, the worlds number 1 murderer is from China and Mr. Mao is the name. I can't say Mao leaves Stalin and Hitler in the dust, but 50 million to 70 million starved to death, shot by the military, etc., is pretty impressive, even by Democrat standards. The funny thing is most Americans have no idea who he is.FarmerJohn said:
China is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand.
So yes, since they still have his pic everywhere in China, it's highly likely they'd starve millions of folks before they'd consider abandoning their pride.
If things do get worse in China, and as long as the tariff battle lasts, it will, then I suspect they'll go into Taiwan pretty quickly. That's what all dictatorial regimes do when their threatened. The patriot surge is too strong to resist and power way too important.
Hate is how progressives sustain themselves. Without hate, introspection begins to slip into the progressive's consciousness, threatening the progressive with the truth: that their ideas and opinions are illogical, hypocritical, dangerous, and asinine.
This is backed by data.
This is backed by data.
THIS!TheRealJacob said:
Before China would allow itself to fall economically, they would probably invade Taiwan and take control over chip manufacturers, almost completely creating a chip monopoly.
Hate is how progressives sustain themselves. Without hate, introspection begins to slip into the progressive's consciousness, threatening the progressive with the truth: that their ideas and opinions are illogical, hypocritical, dangerous, and asinine.
This is backed by data.
This is backed by data.
Boeing needs to step up the game. Their commercial planes are behind the Airbus.TexasAggie_97 said:Perhaps but I am sure there will be numerous airlines ready to buy those planes that China no longer wants.akm91 said:Likely a face saving strategy.infinity ag said:
They just shut down a Boeing order of 10 planes.
WestAustinAg said:Or sub war efforts at massively disrupting our economy and our security.Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
China is already working more tightly with the *******s in the EU to build out a closer relationship.
They could disrupt our economy in a thousand ways...fund terrorism...step up efforts to weaken our grid and harm our internet...
They have already been doing this for 20 years....sooo business as usual for them really.
Not sure what else there is to be afraid of there.
Peter Zeihan's work has been discussed at length here. To recap in a single sentence demographics in China and other parts of the world will kill the CCP system.
Trumps' actions might be an artificial stimulant to speed the process Peter describes. I do see in my own work some panic in China. By that I mean some vendors asking for huge price increases beyond the tariff amount and others suddenly able to give much better base prices trying to bypass tariff pain.
But before Trump came into office very large international companies had already started moving supply chains out of China. Trump is taking this and adding more pressure. Biggest stumbling block is the demographic problem from above. Everyone wants to move to Mexico and we have run out of young Mexican workers. The physical plants that are needed have been relatively easy. Finding bodies for those plants a diff story.
Trumps' actions might be an artificial stimulant to speed the process Peter describes. I do see in my own work some panic in China. By that I mean some vendors asking for huge price increases beyond the tariff amount and others suddenly able to give much better base prices trying to bypass tariff pain.
But before Trump came into office very large international companies had already started moving supply chains out of China. Trump is taking this and adding more pressure. Biggest stumbling block is the demographic problem from above. Everyone wants to move to Mexico and we have run out of young Mexican workers. The physical plants that are needed have been relatively easy. Finding bodies for those plants a diff story.
Captain Pablo said:Ag In Ok said:
Probably goes back to Zeihan while riding his Russian invasion prediction wave commented that chime will fragment into 10 or so smaller nations.
I just don't see that happening. Civil war, not even likely. Civil unrest, likely already happening though i don't know how the video would make it out of China.
I dunno. I kind of doubt it
Did some reading recently. Democracy is a great concept but the constant turnover of policymakers every 2-4 years at the hands of a stupid, lazy electorate is a flaw, that will be fatal someday
Actually, what we are seeing is that long term politicians have become the bane of our country because their long tenured allow then to anchor themselves in the beaurocracy and create and maintain various of corrupted funnels of revenue from nongovernmental, hostile, or self interested entities that wish to either enrich themselves at the expense of our country or outright harm our country.
The problem with contact turnover is that the beaurocrats them have such a more in depth knowledge of the inner workings of the government that they can steer the government however they want it to go.
We saw this during g the Trump presidency.....every time he wanted to do something the beaurocrats knew the loopholes to apply the brakes to his initiatives and grind them to a halt.
There is not a great solution other than shrinking the government to a size that newly elected officials can course correct as needed and quickly gain a better understanding of the workings of the government without having to rely on beaurocrats, aids, and lobbyists to tell them how things work.
More of it...way more of it...taking the wraps off of the low level activities...and Europe would probably enjoy watching from the sidelines...they hate Trump.Ags4DaWin said:WestAustinAg said:Or sub war efforts at massively disrupting our economy and our security.Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
China is already working more tightly with the *******s in the EU to build out a closer relationship.
They could disrupt our economy in a thousand ways...fund terrorism...step up efforts to weaken our grid and harm our internet...
They have already been doing this for 20 years....sooo business as usual for them really.
Not sure what else there is to be afraid of there.
This is why Trump had to start with tariffs so quickly.
He has to make the Chinese capitulate before the midterms or at the very least before year 3 of his term.
Gotta put the hurt on them fast and hard.
He has to make the Chinese capitulate before the midterms or at the very least before year 3 of his term.
Gotta put the hurt on them fast and hard.
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