If I was a betting man I'd bet on us collapsing before them. We're basically on autopilot to blow ourselves up and nobody is reaching for the cancel button.sam callahan said:
I've been waiting for China to collapse for a while.
But I'm shocked we haven't hit a collapsing point yet, too.
Is China on the brink of collapse?
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Last: 9 mo ago by Pacifico
They are in a full-blown depression. The million-dollar question is whether Xi will say, "F it, I might as well invade Taiwan since we are completely decoupling from the U.S." This is the time when a good old-fashioned war to distract the population from their miserable lives comes in handy. This is straight out of the dictator handbook.
There are a ton of these videos. We will find out in September if Xi is going to invade Taiwan. October is best time to invade next and they will need probably 6 weeks to prepare which we will see
There are a ton of these videos. We will find out in September if Xi is going to invade Taiwan. October is best time to invade next and they will need probably 6 weeks to prepare which we will see
#FJB
These ****ers were wholly responsible for shutting down the entire global encomony for several years with their bootleg bat virus.
**** them.
**** them.
China is dealing with deflation. They are also far more in debt than we are. The amount of paper they have out there to fund all of this crap they've been building is astounding.
A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.
A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.
China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.
A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.
China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
Most of what china sells us is junk. If Americans will simply not buy the junk they're done. No one can possibly make up for what we import from them. All Americans have to do is not buy their stuff for a few months. Thats it. Everybody put a stop on it till Christmas.Tailgate88 said:
From a Facebook post so take it FWIW but do we have any evidence this is true?Quote:
WHAT YOU'RE NOT HEARING: The Chinese cannot replace the U.S. market. Without it, the Chinese economy collapses.
Here's why… China's entire economic miracle was built on ONE thing - being America's cheap manufacturing hub.
The "Chinese miracle" playbook was simple:
Open markets to the West
Offer dirt-cheap labor
Ignore safety standards
Let Western companies rake in profits
This worked for decades. But China forgot something crucial: others can do this too.
MASSIVE MISCALCULATION: Beijing thought the American leaders they made rich would protect them forever. They believed these corporate puppet masters would never let the US stand up to China.
WRONG. Along came Donald Trump, who owes them nothing.
The numbers don't lie
US exports to China: $143.5B
Chinese imports to US: $438.9B
They flood our markets while closing or restricting THEIR markets.
But Trump said: NO MORE
Meanwhile, countries like India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are CELEBRATING. They're ready to take China's place, AND open their markets to the U.S. - and Trump's willing to deal.
HERE'S what the Enemedia WON'T tell you:
Chinese exporters are PANICKING
Abandoning shipments mid-voyage
Factory orders FROZEN
Container volume DOWN 90%
And this is just the beginning. China can't replace the U.S. market that made it rich.
Reports flooding in:
Factories shutting down
Amazon canceling orders
Stores closing
Warehouses overflowing
The house of cards is falling. But the Enemedia gives you nothing but Chinese propaganda.
CRUCIAL FACT: America buys 3X more than Japan (China's next biggest customer).
Without us, they're FINISHED. And they were already on the ropes.
Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.
But other countries will step up. And TRILLIONS in new investment are flowing into America, while countless factories LEAVE China.
Will this affect US consumers? Sure, briefly. You might struggle to find cheap plastic junk for a few months.
The bottom line: China picked a fight they can't win. While America adjusts, the CCP will face the consequences of their refusal to truly open their own markets, or to abandon aggression against their neighbors.
Game over. The decoupling is under way.
I have been wondering why the Soviet Union cratered from fewer economic issues but China has kept on going.AtticusMatlock said:
China is dealing with deflation. They are also far more in debt than we are. The amount of paper they have out there to fund all of this crap they've been building is astounding.
A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.
A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.
China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
Because the Soviets couldn't conduct currency manipulation in the manner China has been doing?
Curious as to your thoughts?
The Soviets could never produce much beyond arms. They stole all the German factories after WWII, dismantling them and moved them East, but were never able to design much new stuff on their own.
With China, we designed their early factories and showed them how to make stuff so we could offshore production on the cheap.
With China, we designed their early factories and showed them how to make stuff so we could offshore production on the cheap.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
techno-ag said:
The Soviets could never produce much beyond arms. They stole all the German factories after WWII, dismantling them and moved them East, but were never able to design much new stuff on their own.
With China, we designed their early factories and showed them how to make stuff so we could offshore production on the cheap.
What a bunch of idiots we are. "White man's burden"
Out CEOs sold us out to become billionaires. Fully aided by our scammy politicians.
And now we are doing the same with the high tech industry selling it out to India.
Canada and the UK are really no longer allies, if the term is defined as a common interest in human freedoms. I'm on the fence about Australia, which could sober up still I hope. The old paradigms of who our allies are has changed, and we need more folks to recognize this, imho.Quote:
The US market represents over 16% of Chinese exports. But only 8% of US exports go to China.
Add our allies like Japan, Australia, UK and Canada and there is a juggernaut of market power.
Canada, for instance, is about to pick this guy as their permanent near-term successor to Justin Castro:
He's not just in bed with China to an extent that would make a non-senile Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton blush, he is envious of the CCP.Quote:
It might help if Canadians would actually take the trouble to consult Carney's 500+ page, 2021 manifesto "Value(s)," though I couldn't fault their reluctance since the book is a morbidly dull, clich-ridden, jargon-dense mishmash of globalist porridge, tarted with acronyms: ESG (Environment, Social, Governance), TCFDs (Taskforce Climate-related Financial Disclosures), SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), NDCs (National Determined Contributions), and others that constrict the alphabet into code so that no ordinary person knows what Carney is talking about but is presumably mightily impressed. How could we reject an agenda replete with developing policies, regulations, and incentives and promoting behavioral changes to create a pristine world never seen until Carney and those like him appeared on the scene? Anyone who believes in this gobbledygook seriously needs to be reintroduced to the real world.
I have the impression that most Canadians aren't even aware that Carney wrote a book in the first place. They would do well to educate themselves, look it up, and make the effort at the very least to skim, given that the book is, admittedly, largely unreadable. But this is Canada. We're passionate about the environment, we hate carbon, we love wind farms, we're so much better than those vulgar Americans, we think Trump is really Hitler redivivus, and besides, books are an outmoded technology and print is dead, so why should we trouble ourselves to accommodate the past, even the immediate past, in ways more reliable and comprehensive than digitized information?
If they did break the book's spine, Canadians would find that Carney touts a Communist China-style social credit system in which human behavior will be strictly monitored, surveyed, and controlled. Our money will be digitally tracked; ESG policy will ensure that corporations serve the will of the political administration disguised as saving the planet; technocratic control and the "rule of experts" will replace democratic traditions and individual choice; and salient institutions will be under the sway of foreign entities like the World Economic Forum and the World Health Organization.
As governor of the Bank of England, Carney's advocacy and support for the Network for Greening the Financial System proved to be extremely influential and was immediately hailed by the C40Cities Climate Leadership Group as an inspiration and significant spur to action. The organization's principals write, "As Mark Carney, the Bank of England's governor, has once again highlighted, climate change poses a key threat to the global financial system. His urge to central banks and supervisors to take bold steps to green the financial system is highly welcome."
What are some of these bold steps? If you delve deep enough into the pro-Carney C40 document, you discover that the outfit proposes "eliminating the need for car ownership"; "a 28% reduction in the number of flights over C48 cities"; "a reduction in new items of clothing to as low as 3 per person per year"; and "moving to a plant-based diet." What's not to like? "Firms that align their business models with the transition to a net-zero carbon economy will be rewarded handsomely; those that fail to adapt will cease to exist," pontificates the master of the universe, as he reiterates in the final report of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a company he founded in 2021. The hydrocarbon resources that power our industrial, energy, and agricultural economies will remain "in the ground." And so, of course, will the country.
I hope this is the case and they come to the table and give Trump what he wants. They're a despicable player on the world stage. They are the Nazi Germany of our time. Pure evil. They're more subtle about it but just as evil.
Europe, Canada, and everything in the west aside from the U.S. is dead. Zero innovation, population about to roll over, cannot defend themselves, etc etc. They are all entirely reliant on the US.
China on the brink of collapse. Ya, sure.
China on the brink of collapse. Ya, sure.
Some early indications (from China) of talks with China-US, but Bessent wants to focus on the 'other' top 14 trading partners first it sounds like. Hang Seng market was off a couple percent overnight.
I still think their market and the yuan are the two things to keep an eye on, and both have sort of stabilized over the past week, fwiw.
I still think their market and the yuan are the two things to keep an eye on, and both have sort of stabilized over the past week, fwiw.
TexasAggie_97 said:But socialism rocks man and what about that free healthcare once you pay half of your wages to the government.Ag in Tiger Country said:
They aren't the only ones; a video circulating shows a woman shopping for strawberries, where those from Canada cost $4.95 per lb while the US ones cost $1.49 a lb. If you consider Canada's GDP is the lowest of all Western nations, they're about to completely collapse- probably sooner than China (since the 'free' healthcare is in shambles, housing is 3 to 4 times that of the US, & citizens' income is 1/2 of the average US household).
"Green" is the new RED.
Yeah with massive state intervention. They'd be off another 20%+ without it. At least.nortex97 said:
Some early indications (from China) of talks with China-US, but Bessent wants to focus on the 'other' top 14 trading partners first it sounds like. Hang Seng market was off a couple percent overnight.
I still think their market and the yuan are the two things to keep an eye on, and both have sort of stabilized over the past week, fwiw.
It's not that the Soviets couldn't conduct currency manipulation but that they allowed much less economic integration into outside systems. The Russians didn't produce goods for Western markets. Other captive markets that were reliant on Soviet military or economic support would provide more or less captive markets for Soviet goods but the demand wasn't high enough to supply consistent growth. So you have a kind of phantom growth through the Depression which was really a movement of rural peasants to urban areas and industrialization that hadn't occurred in Russia the way it did in the US and Europe in the mid to late 1800s. Then in the post War years their economic expansion was really based on those captive markets. That took them about 20 years for those client states to rebuild, well somewhat, and their reliance on Russian goods began to contract in comparison to domestic products. Then in the late 70s and especially 80s the poor decisions by economic and military planners started to cause a massive gap between the technological sophistication of the economies and the trade networks. The West further adopted the just in time model pioneered by Toyota, computing and communication just made things really start to expand. The lack of outside markets combined with corruption then finished the Soviets off.aggiehawg said:I have been wondering why the Soviet Union cratered from fewer economic issues but China has kept on going.AtticusMatlock said:
China is dealing with deflation. They are also far more in debt than we are. The amount of paper they have out there to fund all of this crap they've been building is astounding.
A significant percentage of municipal budgets have been made by signing land deals with housing developers. As long as there was a housing boom, the budgets were okay. But the housing market is crashed. Municipal governments are struggling to make payroll.
A large percentage of Chinese retirement savings were wound up in real estate. People didn't trust other Investments so they were buying second and third homes which were just sitting empty. That market is crashed.
China is not a monolith. The current system of government has only been around for about 70 years.
Because the Soviets couldn't conduct currency manipulation in the manner China has been doing?
Curious as to your thoughts?
China doesn't have a number of those problems. They're integrated into almost all world markets. They're stealing and adopting foreign tech developments and unlike the Soviets have been laser focused on putting their students into Western universities to keep up with and import as much as they can.
The Chinese do have a number of incredible vulnerabilities, their debt leverage, the structure of their financial system and the concentration of massive personal wealth in one segment (real estate), but also they have similar infrastructure issues. Ours is our electrical grid which is ridiculously vulnerable and their is around their river system. A huge portion of their population is around the Yellow, Yangtze and Xi Jiang rivers. Three Gorges has a very thick air defense net, but there are tons of these dams and reservoirs all over that would be vulnerable and would wreck their power system along with their agriculture which is centered on these river basins and tributaries.
The Soviets just couldn't continue to compete with Western goods and didn't allow access to those markets which limited their growth and innovation. The Chinese have taken the exact opposite approach which has allowed them to work their hybrid system.
True, but that will decades before it matters, so you might need to do your own research. It could take a hundred years before it effects anythingHoustonAg9999 said:
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
Even if it were would that be a good thing
Seems like China collapsing would bring about some significant and predictable catastrophes and a few unpredictable catastrophes that I personally would like to avoid.
Seems like China collapsing would bring about some significant and predictable catastrophes and a few unpredictable catastrophes that I personally would like to avoid.
Some of you need to visit China. Ride their trains. Drive their cars. Visit their cities. Walk their streets. This isn't some bankrupt 1980's Soviet facade we're dealing with. China isn't going anywhere. History, not some wishful thinking Facebook scree, will determine whether this economic brinksmanship will produce anything good.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
This seems to be completely incomprehensible to most people. Neither the economic collapse of our long-time allies nor our long-time rivals is ultimately a good thing, certainly not in the 1930's, and even less so today.Sq 17 said:
Even if it were would that be a good thing
Seems like China collapsing would bring about some significant and predictable catastrophes and a few unpredictable catastrophes that I personally would like to avoid.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Not much there to sell to after us.Brother Shamus said:
'They will find other markets' 'Somebody will buy it'. What other markets? Those markets are already serviced and to be real, most people in this world couldn't even afford the products coming out of China anyways. If the world could replace the US, they would have already done so.
Tech companies should consider cheap labor in Africa, their population is trending up still, while majority of the world is going downward.
Even Africa is trending down on ratio. No race in the USA is procreating enough to replace the population. I think black people were procreating the most and they are near the white ratio now, almost dead even. 1.65 to 1.75
FarmerJohn said:
China is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand.
"The Soviet Union is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand."
"collapse" can take many forms. I agree, a complete and total collapse where anarchy rules and the country becomes non-functional is dangerous. Same goes for if it gets so bad that they decide war is the only answer.
What if "collapse" means they go into major recession/depression, the people find their voice and it ends up where they have no choice but to accept zero/zero tariffs?
What if "collapse" means they go into major recession/depression, the people find their voice and it ends up where they have no choice but to accept zero/zero tariffs?
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
did I say it was going to happen overnight look if you really want to believe China doesn't have massive problems go right ahead, I don't care.samurai_science said:True, but that will decades before it matters, so you might need to do your own research. It could take a hundred years before it effects anythingHoustonAg9999 said:
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
Logos Stick said:
I wonder if they are modifying another bat virus to unleash on the world. They are not going to go quietly into the night.
Hopefully DOGE cut the funding for that.
Cargo handled at Chinese ports dropped 10% last week. Feeling it.
Bazooka Joe said:
Brink of corrapse!
At what point will they they consider this an act of war and respond as such? Makes me wonder….
Hold your horses.
There is a difference between a dictatorship collapsing and a democracy collapsing.
If we show signs of collapsing, our liberals will start crying, press starts moaning and the leader looks at the polls worrying about re-election. In a dictatorship,. they can just "disappear" the protestors. There is no reelection to worry about.
Xi doesn't care if 10k people die from whatever reason. His threshold of pain is higher.
There is a difference between a dictatorship collapsing and a democracy collapsing.
If we show signs of collapsing, our liberals will start crying, press starts moaning and the leader looks at the polls worrying about re-election. In a dictatorship,. they can just "disappear" the protestors. There is no reelection to worry about.
Xi doesn't care if 10k people die from whatever reason. His threshold of pain is higher.
HoustonAg9999 said:
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
This is nonsense. They were over populated and so just had people have 1 child for some decades. Population is reduced comparatively. It's a good thing.
High pop growth is a ponzi scheme.
LMCane said:FarmerJohn said:
China is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand.
"The Soviet Union is not collapsing for the same reason opening trade did not usher in democracy. They are an authoritarian regime. They will revert to the worst aspects if things get out of hand."
Gorbechev is not in charge of China.
infinity ag said:HoustonAg9999 said:
Chinas economy and their whole society is on the verge, one child policy has completely ruined their future some of y'all only read headlines and don't actually research.
This is nonsense. They were over populated and so just had people have 1 child for some decades. Population is reduced comparatively. It's a good thing.
High pop growth is a ponzi scheme.
And a declining population is worse…..people's taxes are needed to fund the Ponzi schemes or they collapse
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
Not just taxes. Consumers for their products. Workers for the factories. People to support the aging population. As it turns out the Chinese government has actually been lying about their youth population and it is much worse than what they have been reporting. The youth unemployment rate is also very high. They've stopped reporting youth unemployment numbers at all.
Japan and South Korea aren't any better on the demographics front.
Japan and South Korea aren't any better on the demographics front.
A large M > F ratio is aggravating the demographic issues as well. A nation with a surplus of uncoupled, unhappy males is a fight looking for a reason to twist off and the government might actually appreciate a reduction in their numbers. Balanced against their labor needs, of course.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
And that single male is the retirement plan and future caregiver for his parents. There's little interest in the Chinese population for sending their only sons off to war. Vast majority of "evil United States" propaganda in China is directed at their population because they know a war would be highly unpopular.
Yeah, am unimaginable disaster, waged with unthinkable levels of insanity and desperation.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Has anyone here been to China?
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